Cheltenham 2008 - Sun Alliance Chase Preview: Big Priced Outsider?
Two weeks today, dear reader, until the big 'tapes up' for the Cheltenham Festival. Indeed less, by the time I've finished writing this.
We've had a good squint at the trends for a number of the higher profile races already (check my other posts if you're new here... and, welcome!). Now its the turn of the staying novice chasers.
Three miles is the trip for the Sun Alliance Novices Chase (many of these would do well to take out a policy with the sponsor beforehand!), and the race is open to first season novices predominantly. As usual, there are some pretty good trends, but this is not always a race in which the key market protagonists prevail.
Winners at 33/1, 25/1, 16/1 and 14/1 since 1999, and only two winning favourites, point to this being a tricky puzzle, but a rewarding one if we can land on the right tile. So, let's have a go...
44 horses are entered, many of them also have entries in other races at the Festival, but we'll not worry about that until the sharp end.
The first key trend is that eight from the last ten winners were aged 7 or 8. There was a 5yo winner, and a 6yo, but we'll go with the majority and exclude horses aged 6 or lower and 9 upwards. Immediately, this reduces the contenders to two dozen.
Nine of the last ten champs had finished 1st or 2nd on their previous start, and the other was 3rd. Removing non-gold and silver medallists leaves just nine runners. Interesting choice of terminology as we'll discover...
9/10 were 3rd or better on all completed chase starts that season, and this deletes one more.
Eight from ten winners had had three or four runs prior to turning up at Chelters, and this eliminates a further trio. Five remain.
All of the last ten winners had already won that season, so we'll bid a reluctant 'adieu' to lively outsider, Finger On The Pulse.
The remaining quartet comprise Silverburn, Albertas Run, Gold Medallist, and Tidal Bay.
Despite my recent pessimism, if the betting patterns on betfair are anything to go by, Tidal Bay looks more likely to run in the Arkle (for which he has already been tipped - and backed - by this humble blogger). I will exclude him for now, and back him on the day if needs be.
So, our triumvirate to deliberate upon are:
Silverburn (10/1 VCBet)
Albertas Run (7/1 Sportingbet)
Gold Medallist (33/1 bet365, 44 betfair)
Gold Medallist may take up an alternative engagement in the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase after an uninspiring win for TTS punters on Sunday. Still, a win is a win, and if he lines up, he'd be a wager.
The two who are nigh on certain to compete are Silverburn and Albertas Run. Annoyingly, I intended to back Albertas Run prior to him winning the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot when he was a general 20/1 shot. Having missed that boat, I'm loathe to row in at 7's and reckon he may be longer on the day.
This leaves Silverburn. Consider also that Paul Nicholls has trained the last two winners of the race, in Denman and Star de Mohaison, as well as the third (Cornish Rebel) in 2005, and it's hard to ignore this one's credentials.
So I won't. Back him, win only, at 10/1 with VCBet. He's best priced 9's with Paddy Power elsewhere, so get him while he's warm!
We'll also have a speculative on the Gold Medallist, just in case he runs, with the exchange.
3 pts win Silverburn (10/1 VC)
1 pt win Gold Medallist (44 betfair)
Portfolio to date
Royal & Sun Alliance Novice Chase
26th Feb 3 pts win Silverburn 10/1 (Victor Chandler)
26th Feb 1 pt win Gold Medallist 44 (betfair)
Champion Chase
24th Feb 3 pts win Twist Magic 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
24th Feb 2 pts win Voy Por Ustedes at 4/1 (PP, Lads, Hills)
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
23th Feb 2.5 pts e/w Muirhead 10/1 (Totesport)
23th Feb 1 pt win Pasco at 85 (betfair)
Arkle
14th Feb 2 pts win Tidal Bay 10/1 (General)
Champion Hurdle
28th Jan 6pts win Sizing Europe 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
1st Nov 1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair)
1st Nov 1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)
Gold Cup
24th Jan 1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair)
24th Jan 1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)
World Hurdle (aka Stayers Hurdle)
28th January 2pts e/w Blazing Bailey 9/1 (general)
We've had a good squint at the trends for a number of the higher profile races already (check my other posts if you're new here... and, welcome!). Now its the turn of the staying novice chasers.
Three miles is the trip for the Sun Alliance Novices Chase (many of these would do well to take out a policy with the sponsor beforehand!), and the race is open to first season novices predominantly. As usual, there are some pretty good trends, but this is not always a race in which the key market protagonists prevail.
Winners at 33/1, 25/1, 16/1 and 14/1 since 1999, and only two winning favourites, point to this being a tricky puzzle, but a rewarding one if we can land on the right tile. So, let's have a go...
44 horses are entered, many of them also have entries in other races at the Festival, but we'll not worry about that until the sharp end.
The first key trend is that eight from the last ten winners were aged 7 or 8. There was a 5yo winner, and a 6yo, but we'll go with the majority and exclude horses aged 6 or lower and 9 upwards. Immediately, this reduces the contenders to two dozen.
Nine of the last ten champs had finished 1st or 2nd on their previous start, and the other was 3rd. Removing non-gold and silver medallists leaves just nine runners. Interesting choice of terminology as we'll discover...
9/10 were 3rd or better on all completed chase starts that season, and this deletes one more.
Eight from ten winners had had three or four runs prior to turning up at Chelters, and this eliminates a further trio. Five remain.
All of the last ten winners had already won that season, so we'll bid a reluctant 'adieu' to lively outsider, Finger On The Pulse.
The remaining quartet comprise Silverburn, Albertas Run, Gold Medallist, and Tidal Bay.
Despite my recent pessimism, if the betting patterns on betfair are anything to go by, Tidal Bay looks more likely to run in the Arkle (for which he has already been tipped - and backed - by this humble blogger). I will exclude him for now, and back him on the day if needs be.
So, our triumvirate to deliberate upon are:
Silverburn (10/1 VCBet)
Albertas Run (7/1 Sportingbet)
Gold Medallist (33/1 bet365, 44 betfair)
Gold Medallist may take up an alternative engagement in the Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase after an uninspiring win for TTS punters on Sunday. Still, a win is a win, and if he lines up, he'd be a wager.
The two who are nigh on certain to compete are Silverburn and Albertas Run. Annoyingly, I intended to back Albertas Run prior to him winning the Reynoldstown Chase at Ascot when he was a general 20/1 shot. Having missed that boat, I'm loathe to row in at 7's and reckon he may be longer on the day.
This leaves Silverburn. Consider also that Paul Nicholls has trained the last two winners of the race, in Denman and Star de Mohaison, as well as the third (Cornish Rebel) in 2005, and it's hard to ignore this one's credentials.
So I won't. Back him, win only, at 10/1 with VCBet. He's best priced 9's with Paddy Power elsewhere, so get him while he's warm!
We'll also have a speculative on the Gold Medallist, just in case he runs, with the exchange.
3 pts win Silverburn (10/1 VC)
1 pt win Gold Medallist (44 betfair)
Portfolio to date
Royal & Sun Alliance Novice Chase
26th Feb 3 pts win Silverburn 10/1 (Victor Chandler)
26th Feb 1 pt win Gold Medallist 44 (betfair)
Champion Chase
24th Feb 3 pts win Twist Magic 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
24th Feb 2 pts win Voy Por Ustedes at 4/1 (PP, Lads, Hills)
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
23th Feb 2.5 pts e/w Muirhead 10/1 (Totesport)
23th Feb 1 pt win Pasco at 85 (betfair)
Arkle
14th Feb 2 pts win Tidal Bay 10/1 (General)
Champion Hurdle
28th Jan 6pts win Sizing Europe 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
1st Nov 1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair)
1st Nov 1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)
Gold Cup
24th Jan 1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair)
24th Jan 1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)
World Hurdle (aka Stayers Hurdle)
28th January 2pts e/w Blazing Bailey 9/1 (general)
posted by Matt at
22:54
1 Comments:
Genuine, top class tipping. An essential read for all lovers and followers of horse racing.
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