Cheltenham 2008 - Champion Chase Preview

Surprises, dear reader, come in two different varieties. The pleasant kind, for instance, 'ooh, darling, you've made the tea, what a pleasant surprise'; and the nasty kind, such as, 'oh drat, my horse has just fallen at the last when ten lengths clear' (or words to that effect).

The Champion Chase, mercifully for us punting types, rarely provides a nasty surprise, at least in terms of the market position of the winner. That said, some very well fancied horses (Moscow Flyer, Well Chief, Kauto Star) have come down and cost me stacks of dough in the last few years.

To this year, and there are only 22 horses entered, so the prospect of a small field is real. Let's start to draw some lines through runners...

The last nine winners had previously won that season, which brings us down to nine runners immediately.

The last ten winners had finished no lower than fifth on completed starts. Just six still standing.

Nine of the ten since 1997 had won a Grade 1 or 2 chase in their winning season, prior to arriving at Cheltenham in March. Another one bites the dust, leaving us five.

Eight of the last ten had finished no lower than 2nd on completed chase starts in their winning season. Four left.

Nine out of ten winners were aged six to ten. The exception was exceptional: Moscow Flyer, a quicksilver 11yo. Furthermore, no five year old has even attempted to win the Champion Chase, let alone win it, in the last twenty years. A significant line through the favourite, Master Minded, then.

Master Minded may have some good winning form in France, but he's only beaten one decent horse in this country, and he's yet to experience Cheltenham's uniquely challenging contours. I fear for the wellbeing of this precocious young chap, and only hope he survives the experience, as I seriously expect him to fail to complete. (Sorry).

This leaves three, the bottom three: Tamarinbleu, Twist Magic, and Voy Por Ustedes.

Now, consider this - of the eight winners to have previously run at Cheltenham, seven were course and distance winners (the eighth, One Man, surely would have been too, if his trainer hadn't persisted with trying to win a Gold Cup with him when he patently didn't stay the trip!). Tamarinbleu has had seven goes at Cheltenham and won just once, over 2miles and 5furlongs. I'd be surprised if he was quick enough on the likely good ground.

So, we've got Twist Magic and defending champion, Voy Por Ustedes left.

Choosing between them is difficult, especially when you consider that eight out of the last ten winners were in the first three in the betting, and these two are 2nd and 3rd favourites.

Even more difficult when you consider that the last five winners to have previously run at Cheltenham had all won the Arkle. Voy Por won the Arkle prior to winning the Champion Chase last year, and Twist was travelling like the winner before coming down in a very soft fall at the penultimate impediment (that's the second last fence, if you prefer!) in last year's Arkle.

The trainers of these two, Paul Nicholls and Alan King, are surely the best two Festival trainers in England, and I find it almost impossible to choose between their animals. Perhaps the only slight reservation about Voy Por is that this is a very difficult race in which to defend the title. Moscow Flyer won it twice, but came down in between gold medals.

For this reason only, I'm going to side slightly in favour of the Twist Magic, with a smaller wager on Voy Por Ustedes.

3 pts win Twist Magic (3/1 with Ladbrokes and Coral)
2 pts win Voy Por Ustedes (4/1 Paddy Power, Ladbrokes and William Hill)

Portfolio to date

Champion Chase
24th Feb 3 pts win Twist Magic 3/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
24th Feb 2 pts win Voy Por Ustedes at 4/1 (PP, Lads, Hills)

Supreme Novices' Hurdle
23th Feb 2.5 pts e/w Muirhead 10/1 (Totesport)
23th Feb 1 pt win Pasco at 85 (betfair)

Arkle
14th Feb 2 pts win Tidal Bay 10/1 (General)

Champion Hurdle
28th Jan 6pts win Sizing Europe 3/1 (Ladbrokes)
1st Nov 1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair)
1st Nov 1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)

Gold Cup
24th Jan 1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair)
24th Jan 1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet)
24th Jan 0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)

World Hurdle (aka Stayers Hurdle)
28th January 2pts e/w Blazing Bailey 9/1 (general)