Moving The Cheltenham Ante-Post Portfolio Up A Notch...
Forty-seven days to go, dear reader, until the joy of the annual equine jumping jamboree is upon us once more.
Yes, just six weeks and five days until tapes up on the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
Today, a quick squint at the Champion Hurdle and the Gold Cup, if you will...
I've already flagged up a couple on here at monster monster prices for the Champion Hurdle. If you followed the advice, you'll have torn up your Detroit City (RIP) ticket, but will have found a safe place behind the clock on the mantlepiece for Straw Bear (36 on betfair at that time, now just 17.5, and best priced 14/1 with the traditional bookies).
I still can't have Sublimity, who is a sulker, Harchibald is lay in running material (cruises, finds nada), and then there are a bunch of new kids on the block. Osana won well as a novice the same day Straw Bear won the Kingwell at Wincanton last February. But he will have had to improve a helluva lot to take it to the Bear. That said, he may have made that improvement!
AP will be looking forward to StrawB from his hospital bed, and I reckon he might announce his return for his guv'nor with this chap. Caveat, as previously mentioned, is that Straw Bear has burst blood vessels in the past, including in the race last year. 14's is still a fair price I reckon. He's in to run next weekend at Cheltenham.
Moving on to the Gold Cup, and for many people its a match between stablemates Kauto Star, the champ, and Denman, the contender. Exotic Dancer is priced in most books as the most likely bronze medallist.
But how often do races actually turn out that way? Let's think for a second about the way the race will pan out: Denman, the slugger, will try to grind victory out from the front by browbeating his opposition into timid submission.
Kauto, all class, the Muhammed Ali to Denman's Joe Frazier, will float like a butterfly prior to stinging like a bee. Or will he? Kauto tends to, excuse me, twat a fence from time to time. And, with a ferocious pace nigh on guaranteed, he could find the examination has one or two trick questions that may just catch him out.
(Sincere apologies for the ugly mixed metaphors in the above).
So, I'm predicting one of the two will win the race - shock, horror! However, I am also predicting that the one that doesn't win, will not place either. Either Denman will run himself ragged and not get home, or Kauto will stumble and tumble.
Which leaves us with two places to play with and not that many horses to consider. The stats say that nine from the last ten Gold Cup winners were aged 7, 8 or 9. Forget 10yo Kicking King then, despite his run today, which proved little more than he still has a leg in each corner and a touch of class.
I'm also excluding Exotic Dancer, on the basis that the horse has had a setback, and will miss his intended engagement next weekend. As I've mentioned here before, in Championship races, do not back horses who have had setbacks. Very rarely can they overcome them, and still be good enough to kick turf in their peers' noggins.
My shekels have landed on a couple of dark ones who, in fairness, may well not even run in the race. But, for small beer, I reckon they're worth a tickle each way or place only.
They are Halcon Genelardais and Mossbank. Halcon is trained by the best jumps trainer in the country, Alan King, and King's Cheltenham record stands the closest examination.
No horse with a Racing Post Rating lower than 163 has won the race, and 8 out of 10 had a previous RPR of at least 170. HG weighs in at 171, after his impressive - if excruciating - head defeat in the Welsh National, where he lugged 11-10.
Mossbank has a very progressive profile. Having been tonked in the Sun Alliance Chase last season, where he was never put in the race, this season he won his first two starts (a £50,000 to the winner handicap chase, and a Grade 2 where he bolted up from some reliable old sticks).
Last time out, he took on Denman in the Lexus Chase, and only gave best by four lengths. He travelled impeccably that day, giving me hope that a) he will stay, and b) his trainer will also feel that way and run him in the Gold Cup.
Halcon is currently trading at 110 on the exchange, while Mossbank is available at 75.
At those prices, throwaway wagers may give you something luvly jubbly to shout about come middle March.
Portfolio to date
Champion Hurdle
1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair)
1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)
Gold Cup
1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair)
1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)
0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet)
0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)
More in the coming weeks...
Matt
Yes, just six weeks and five days until tapes up on the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
Today, a quick squint at the Champion Hurdle and the Gold Cup, if you will...
I've already flagged up a couple on here at monster monster prices for the Champion Hurdle. If you followed the advice, you'll have torn up your Detroit City (RIP) ticket, but will have found a safe place behind the clock on the mantlepiece for Straw Bear (36 on betfair at that time, now just 17.5, and best priced 14/1 with the traditional bookies).
I still can't have Sublimity, who is a sulker, Harchibald is lay in running material (cruises, finds nada), and then there are a bunch of new kids on the block. Osana won well as a novice the same day Straw Bear won the Kingwell at Wincanton last February. But he will have had to improve a helluva lot to take it to the Bear. That said, he may have made that improvement!
AP will be looking forward to StrawB from his hospital bed, and I reckon he might announce his return for his guv'nor with this chap. Caveat, as previously mentioned, is that Straw Bear has burst blood vessels in the past, including in the race last year. 14's is still a fair price I reckon. He's in to run next weekend at Cheltenham.
Moving on to the Gold Cup, and for many people its a match between stablemates Kauto Star, the champ, and Denman, the contender. Exotic Dancer is priced in most books as the most likely bronze medallist.
But how often do races actually turn out that way? Let's think for a second about the way the race will pan out: Denman, the slugger, will try to grind victory out from the front by browbeating his opposition into timid submission.
Kauto, all class, the Muhammed Ali to Denman's Joe Frazier, will float like a butterfly prior to stinging like a bee. Or will he? Kauto tends to, excuse me, twat a fence from time to time. And, with a ferocious pace nigh on guaranteed, he could find the examination has one or two trick questions that may just catch him out.
(Sincere apologies for the ugly mixed metaphors in the above).
So, I'm predicting one of the two will win the race - shock, horror! However, I am also predicting that the one that doesn't win, will not place either. Either Denman will run himself ragged and not get home, or Kauto will stumble and tumble.
Which leaves us with two places to play with and not that many horses to consider. The stats say that nine from the last ten Gold Cup winners were aged 7, 8 or 9. Forget 10yo Kicking King then, despite his run today, which proved little more than he still has a leg in each corner and a touch of class.
I'm also excluding Exotic Dancer, on the basis that the horse has had a setback, and will miss his intended engagement next weekend. As I've mentioned here before, in Championship races, do not back horses who have had setbacks. Very rarely can they overcome them, and still be good enough to kick turf in their peers' noggins.
My shekels have landed on a couple of dark ones who, in fairness, may well not even run in the race. But, for small beer, I reckon they're worth a tickle each way or place only.
They are Halcon Genelardais and Mossbank. Halcon is trained by the best jumps trainer in the country, Alan King, and King's Cheltenham record stands the closest examination.
No horse with a Racing Post Rating lower than 163 has won the race, and 8 out of 10 had a previous RPR of at least 170. HG weighs in at 171, after his impressive - if excruciating - head defeat in the Welsh National, where he lugged 11-10.
Mossbank has a very progressive profile. Having been tonked in the Sun Alliance Chase last season, where he was never put in the race, this season he won his first two starts (a £50,000 to the winner handicap chase, and a Grade 2 where he bolted up from some reliable old sticks).
Last time out, he took on Denman in the Lexus Chase, and only gave best by four lengths. He travelled impeccably that day, giving me hope that a) he will stay, and b) his trainer will also feel that way and run him in the Gold Cup.
Halcon is currently trading at 110 on the exchange, while Mossbank is available at 75.
At those prices, throwaway wagers may give you something luvly jubbly to shout about come middle March.
Portfolio to date
Champion Hurdle
1pt win Detroit City 26 (betfair)
1pt win Straw Bear 36 (betfair)
Gold Cup
1pt win Mossbank 75 (betfair)
1pt win Halcon Genelardais 110 (betfair)
0.5pt e/w Mossbank 50/1 (Sportingbet)
0.5pt e/w Halcon Genelardais 50/1 (General)
More in the coming weeks...
Matt
posted by Matt at
21:37
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home