Tomorrow's Selections

Just through the door from a very long flight, dear reader, and fatigue is at record levels.

A quick post with tomorrow's selections, then bed for me... and more tomorrow.

TFS (14/1 or shorter)
Ascot
2.35 New Guinea

Musselburgh
4.45 El Coto

TTS (14/1 or shorter)
Market Rasen
2.10 Nez Rouge
4.30 Grenfell
Amazing Valour
5.05 Rowdy Yeats

Laying System
Market Rasen
2.10 Kimi

Matt

Tomorrow's Selections

Friday afternoon here in Sriracha (pronounced Silaatcha), dear reader, and the merriment is almost at an end.

Later this pm I will return to Bangkok, with lady friend and her friends, and meet up with my other mates for a one night only riot in the city! Then tomorrow back to UK.

While I've been out here, I've been re-reading (for the third time) Andrew Beyer's amazing book, 'Picking Winners'. If you're in any way serious about your betting - and lets face it, you don't read this for my wit and repartee! - try and get a copy of this on ebay or amazon (I reckon it'll cost about five quid or so).

The book has reminded me of some really important fundamental principles, and I'll be finishing the US vs UK form analysis piece based predominantly on what I've read. That should be ready next week some time, so keep your peepers peeled!

Onto Saturday's action, which includes a memorable QE II Stakes. As with most of the major races this season, it seems, I'll be away when the race unfolds and will therefore miss the action. I am a huge fan of Ramonti, who I believe has not received the credit he deserves for persistent Group 1 winning performances.

But 'The Italian Stallion' is up against a special one of Mourinho proportions in Darjina. She got the verdict quite convincingly on home turf in the Prix du Moulin over Ramonti, and I don't envisage this away leg precluding an impressive double. She is banker material for me (which is unfortunate given tomorrow's TFS runners...)

To be honest, I can't see anything else getting within lengths of these two, but I'm usually wrong on such matters!

Onto tomorrow's selections, and a plethora of qualifiers at Market Rasen are joined by an elite flat gathering:

TrainerFlatStats
Ascot
4.20 Blue Ksar
Ramonti

Haydock
5.20 Green Wadi

TrainerTrackStats
Market Rasen
1.35 Our Choice
2.40 Prestbury Knight
3.15 Iron Man
Always Waining
3.45 Decisive
4.25 Pigeon Island
5.00 Apollo Creed

No Friday Fun this week due to lack of access to comedy archives, but I may have a treat for you next week in that space... Remember the classic Office scene where Ricky Gervais does his crazy dance? Well, I've been captured on candid camera doing something not dissimilar and, assuming it isn't irredeemably incriminating, I will share it for your amusement.

Have a great weekend, and I'll be back soon.

Matt

Tomorrow's Selections

To Friday's fare, dear reader, and - your god willing - a change of fortune...

TFS
Haydock
3.20 Legendary Guest

TTS
Lingfield
2.209 Sunset Boulevard


Laying System
Lingfield
2.55 Almizan

In Sriracha today, a fishing village on the Eastern seaboard. Spending time with my lady friend and her two female friends, who are reminiscing about 'the good old days'. As you can imagine, it's riveting.... ahem. ;)

Matt

Tomorrow's Selections

Wednesday evening here in Bangkok, dear reader, and your humble scribe is back on form having caught up with his lady friend.

The weather is very hot / humid here, but the food and company excellent, and the hotel awesome.

Tomorrow I'm off to a traditional fishing village, where my lady's friend works in a school. Should be an interesting day...

On with the show, and tomorrow's qualifiers... (remember 14/1 or shorter for TTS and TFS)

TrainerTrackStats

Fontwell
2.10 Royal Tender
2.40 Count Kristo
3.40 Bungar Belle

Perth
2.30 Platin Grounds
3.30 Pali Bay
5.00 The Hollow Bottom
5.30 Razor Royale

TrainerFlatStats
No qualifiers

Laying System
No qualifiers

Matt

Tomorrow's Selections

Hello, dear reader, and I'm pleased to report that I'm feeling a little better today. Off to Bangkok tomorrow to meet up with my lady friend, and for some good home nursing ;)

A pity about the results this week, with more places than a dyslexic fishmonger. Very frustrating...

Tomorrow's fare as follows:

TFS
No qualifiers

TTS
Perth
2.30 Battle Cry

Laying System
Goodwood
5.15 Kingscape

Matt

Tomorrow's Selections

Quick line today dear reader, for I am feeling particularly ill. Too many heavy sessions, and too much Thai food has upset my equilibrium royally alas...

TFS Qualifiers
Folkestone
2.50 Grylls
5.20 Spiderback

No TTS runners
No Laying System runners

Matt

Tomorrow

Tomorrow's Selections

Happy Monday, dear reader, and here are the selections for tomorrow:

TFS
Hamilton
5.10 Muqadam (Stoute 8 from 10 in the last five years!)

No TTS qualifiers

Laying System
Leicester
5.00 Bahamian Ballad

We've now moved to Phuket, and it's a bit less 'in your face' than Pattaya (where EvErYtHiNg is in your face!)

Had a quick massage from a ladyboy in a dodgy bar. It's a mad place, but very friendly and all good.

We're here for the next four days then a couple in Bangkok, then home sweet home. More tomorrow...

Matt

Tomorrow's Selections

Hello again, dear reader, and here is your early Sunday service.

Hot and wet here, but spirits not dampened as the beer, craic and hospitality are all top drawer. We're off down to Phuket tomorrow - hopefully no problems with the planes...

Tomorrow's selections as follows:

No TFS qualifiers

TTS:

Plumpton
2.00 Art Gallery
3.30 Dishdasha
4.00 Simonovski
5.00 Caan

Uttoxeter
2.50 Doctor Kilbride

No Laying System qualifiers

Matt

Tomorrow's Selections

Wow, dear reader, this place is really crazy. I've been talking to a lovely girl for most of the night. Turns out she's a 'he'!!! Good job I'm on best behaviour until my girlfriend arrives next week. Very dangerous territory!

Tomorrow's selections...

No TTS qualifiers
No Laying System qualifiers

TFS, subject to being 14/1 or shorter, as follows:

Catterick
2.25 Tawzeea

Newbury
2.35 Berbice

Newmarket

2.45 Two Timer
3.55 Warm Embraces
4.30 Hot Diamond
Art Investor

Take care team, and good weekend to you all.
Matt

Tomorrow's Selections

Dear reader,

No TrainerFlatStats runners tomorrow.

No TrainerTrackStats runners tomorrow.

Laying System qualifier, subject to being 6/1 or shorter:

Newbury 5.35 Tropical Strait

Matt

Thai'd Up And Drawn In... You Lucky People!

Good evening, dear reader, and welcome to a midweek post from yours truly.

Two things on the agenda for this evening's meeting (sorry, corporate Britain is biting me hard, even in the charity sector!):

1. My impending trip and why it's good news for you
2. Why the draw just pays and pays to follow

Let's start with news of yet another sojourn for your humble scribe. Yes, I have had enough of working after just two weeks and am off to recover in the exotic surroundings of Thailand. Never having been further in Asia than Brick Lane, I am very excited about the culture shock to which I am to be introduced.

My travelling companions are a mixed bunch, and include the current leader of the Nag Fantasy Football League. He also happens to edit the national weekly shares magazine, entitled - imaginatively enough - Shares (!)

There will be five of us travelling and, as I can't take my laptop for security reasons (i.e. I am likely to be in various states of inebriation and don't trust myself not to lose it...), I will be posting qualifiers for TrainerFlatStats, TrainerTrackStats and Laying System here on the blog each day.

The second point I wanted to raise is a hardy perennial topic in the summer months on here, and relates to the draw. Yet again, Beverley has shown its favouritism for high draws in the sprint races today, as I collected with Malapropism.

He was drawn highest of all, had won this summer in the same class and at the trip, has a handy running style and won by an unequivocal four lengths! Of course, this is hindsight as I write, but that was exactly my rationale when I placed the bet. 7/2 was a generous payoff.

The point here is a general one, rather than clever old Matt bet another winner and is bragging about it.

Look at draw biases and exploit them.

Here are a few starters for ten:

Chester - low draw in the sprints
Beverley - high draw in the sprints
Chepstow - high draw up to a mile
Goodwood - high draw at 7f and a mile
Ripon - high draw in sprints
Catterick - low draw in sprints

For next season, I will produce a full review of draw biases. For now though, keep looking out for the favoured positions and back the fancied horses who can make the best of their draw. That is, don't bother if your horse is well drawn but does not race handily - if he's got to come through horses, he'll likely find trouble in running.

Take a good look on Saturday at Catterick!

Until next time...

Matt

RIF: Plenty of Short Priced Winners

Hello again, dear reader, and welcome to a brief Sunday service, the main point of which is to tell you what I think of the recently much-publicised Racing Investment Formula.

Despite the rather grand title, this is a horse racing system based on market strength. Depending on the number of runners and the fluctuations - both inward and outward - of the market principles, there is a series of system rules.

The guide comes with a little spreadsheet application (with a download link to a compatible spreadsheet software program in case you don't have Microsoft Excel).

This is how it works: about half an hour before the race starts, you enter the name (or number if you prefer shorthand!) of the top half dozen or so horses in the race (the system only focuses on the top end of the market, where all the money is).

You then enter their betfair odds. Then, a couple of minutes before the off, you enter the prices at that time. The spreadsheet calculates the difference in the 'rounds' of the horses (see my previous post for an explanation of 'rounds'), and where there is a marked movement one way or the other, a system rule will apply.

Whether the horse is to be backed to win or place, or to lose or not be placed, depends on the number of runners and the market change.

The rules are pretty simple to follow, though in my opinion they could have been worded more clearly.

I trialled the system today on the first seven races of the day, and the results were as follows:

Track	Race	Selection	Bet Type	Odds	Result	Profit to £100
Goodwood	2.00	No qualifier
Stratford	2.15	Cave Of The Giant	Place Back	1.33	WON	26.35
Bath	2.25	Floristry	Back	1.27	WON	20.65
Goodwood	2.35	No qualifier
Stratford	2.45	Lawyer Des Ormeaux	Place Back	1.5	WON	42.5
Bath	3.00	No qualifier
Goodwood	3.10	Unreachable Star	Place Back	1.46	WON	38.7
						128.2

£128.20 profit (after taking out 5% commission) is not bad for an hour and a half sat watching the racing!

Some points with this system, which may be clear from the above.

1) Back selections are pretty short odds, but are strongly fancied - as the market movement indicates.

2) Lay selections will have drifted heavily in the immediate run up to the race. (There were no drifters to note today).

3) You will need to be able to spend some time at the computer, as for any race you play on, you'll need to monitor the market a half hour before the race as well as closer to the 'off'.

4) The system can be used as regularly or rarely as you are able to use it - each race is an individual event. So if you're a Saturday racing fan only, this might be of interest.

Overall, though the trial was only on a small number of races, I like the approach of the product. It comes with all the information you need, but you might need to spend a few races practicing (i.e. paper trading) prior to striking your first wager. This will help you get your head round the system rules, which are not difficult, but are - in my opinion - poorly written.

The system comes with a money back guarantee, so if its not your cup of tea, you get your dough back.

Overall, based more on the approach than the results (although I didn't witness a losing bet, the sample is too small to be categorical, especially with the price of the selections), I like this system, and would recommend those readers with time enough to watch the market give it a whirl. Note, you don't need to constantly monitor the race market: you just need to check 20-30 minutes before, and then just before the 'off' when you'll strike a wager on any qualifiers.

More info is available here: http://tinyurl.com/2rv9dc (the usual apologies apply for the vendor's typical hyperbole).

Matt

Don't Buy Racing Investments Formula.... Yet!

Hello, dear reader, and welcome to another occasional posting from yours truly.

If you, like me, have been bombarded with emails regarding the latest system from the farm of Stephen Brookes, then I've got some news for you...

I've had a read of the system, and it basically uses changes in the betfair market to inform some system rules.

The concept of overround's will be familiar to some of you but not to others, so I'll briefly explain here:

- A book is the total market on a horse race, with a price quoted for each runner
- A book making up 100% would be considered round
- If the book is less than 100% it is underround
- If the book is more than 100% it is overround
- To calculate the round of a book, you simply:
- Work out how much you'd need to stake on each horse to return £100 (including stake)
- Add up all the amounts
- If the number is greater than 100, as it invariably is, this is the overround.

e.g. 3 horse race (for simplicity sake), betting as follows:

A 6/4
B 2/1
C 2/1

£40 bet on A will return £100 including the stake; £33.33 bet on B will return £100; £33.33 bet on C will return £100.

40 + 33.33 + 33.33 = 106.66%

OK, with me so far? Good. Usually, the markets on betfair trade at around 101-102%, meaning that you are getting very fair odds. (If the market is less than 100%, you could - in theory at least - back all horses and guarantee a profit).

RIF looks at the difference in the individual horse rounds between the off time (or a minute before) and half an hour prior to a race. For instance, if Alpha Omega was trading on betfair at 3.0 or 2/1 30 minutes before the off, and was then trading at 6/4 or 2.5 a minute before the off, the round would have gone from 33.33 (for 2/1, see above example) to 40 (for 6/4, again see example above).

The difference here of 6.67 would equate to a system rule in RIF.

Although this sounds complicated, it actually isn't in practice, especially with the spreadsheet software provided. You just enter the numbers half an hour before, and shortly before, the off respectively, and all the maths is done for you. You then look at the differentials (calculated for you) and identify the appropriate system qualifier.

Incidentally, the system may tell you to bet to win or bet to place, or to lay the win or place.

So, that's what it does... but does it work?!

Erm... I don't know, as I've been doing this blooming charity management gig all week, and will be tomorrow. Allied to this is the fact that I'm playing footy on Saturday (I play for Southgate County on Saturdays in the London Old Boys League. We're rubbish!!!)

But on Sunday, I will trial the system on half a dozen races and appraise you of how the system performs.

If you can't wait that long, check out the usual bluster here: http://tinyurl.com/2rv9dc

Personally, I'd wait: let me try it out before you spend any cash...

Onto the racing, and of course the St Leger is this Saturday. Before that though, Doncaster hosts the Flying Childers Stakes for 2yo's tomorrow. The race has extra resonance this year, as it will be the first time since his cruel extradition that Spirit of Sharjah has run.

In case you're not familiar with the story, Sharjah was trained by the trainer of my (bit of) horse, Julia Feilden, until the owner - a man who'd never won a race prior to saddling up with Julia - decided to move the horse to Peter Chapple-Hyam.

Julia, after all, had only chosen the horse and picked it up for a song, landed a very nice touch (16/1 into 10/1) on debut, then won a listed race, with the horse.

After that, Sharjah finished third to the mighty Winker Watson at Royal Ascot, before disappointing a touch at the Newmarket July meeting. Last time out, he ran pretty well at Glorious Goodwood (being the only horse except Kingsgate Native - subsequent winner of a Group 1 against older horses! - drawn in double figures to finish in the top ten in that race, and from a much worse draw than the Native).

So, I'm afraid I have to hope for a disappointing run from Sharjah. I wish the horse no ill of course, but if he never wins another race, this scribe will feel some justice has been done.

TrainerTrackStats continues tomorrow with a couple of runners at Bangor, for which I am hopeful, though the racing does look pretty competitive there.

You can get a free trial or sign up at www.TrainerTrackStats.com, although the bonuses have now expired.

Finally, a little premature for some of you (as it's Thursday evening as I write this), here is some Friday Fun to keep you entertained at the end of the week...

This week, another spot of self-indulgence, with my favourite sitcom of all time, Fall and Rise of Reginal Perrin (I know, I'm showing my age...!). These are classic moments, and if you enjoy them half as much as me, you'll be laughing heartily before long.




Good weekend, and I'll let you know about Racing Investment Formula on Sunday.

Matt

Last Chance Saloon For TTS...

Good morning, dear reader, and just time to remind you that if you want the special offers associated with TrainerTrackStats, the statistical jumps guide showing trainer profitable sub-trends, you need to act today.

I will remove the pages with the offers on this evening, so please don't miss out if you're interested.

One runner, one winner yesterday, with Cape Greko obliging at 4/1 for Brendan Powell, 'the man'.

To sign up, go check it out here.

Happy Monday.

Matt

Sunday Service...

Greetings, dear reader, from your sometime correspondent here at Nag3.

Apologies for the delay in posting, and for the fact that this virtual space may be more sporadically populated with words of wit and wisdom (along with many other words that fit in neither of the aforementioned categories) over the next month or so.

The reason for this dereliction of blogging duty is that I have agreed to help a major charity involved in the marine business with a number of IT projects. My day job used to be as an IT project manager / consultant, and its good for me to 'keep my arm in' as it were. Also, the extra pennies are more than welcome!

So - if you don't see a post for a day or two - accept my apologies, and I shall endeavour to ensure that when I do post, the content is deep and rich, like Donald Trump's trouser pockets...

To racing... And is it just me or has the racing been thoroughly crap this week? I don't know of a tipster on the planet who has managed to get his nose in front these last seven days, and I'm afraid that the Nag stable products are no exception.

September is a curious time for racing fans, with the turf flat season tapering out, and the fledgling jumps season taking its first tentative steps.

Although it's tough to find winners at this time of year by looking at the form book, a decent alternative approach is to look at the trainer tables and current stable form. A good example is brilliant up and coming trainer, and my main man to follow this season, Brendan Powell.

Powell was an above average jockey who never quite made it to the top of that game. But his work ethic and horsemanship are quickly elevating him to the top of the training tree, and he is now getting wider recognition in the form of more horses and better quality horses.

This season will be a defining chapter in the career of B G Powell and I expect him to continue placing winners in both flat and jumps races throughout the winter. September is expected to be an excellent month for him.

Racing today is a mixed bag, with action at Stratford, Hereford and York, as well as two Group 3's and a Group 1 at Longchamp.

Let's start with Longchamp, and in the 2.55, a Group 3 for 2yo's, John Gosden's young pretender, Young Pretender, looks to have a fine chance after an extremely impressive debut at UK HQ. His trainer is no mug and never takes horses abroad for the day out. He'll take some beating here and may then rise toward the peak of the Guineas ante-post lists for next season.

A win today may well see the Young Pretender line up for one of the big season finales, either the Dewhurst or the Racing Post Trophy, for which he is entered in both.

But the main event across La Manche is the Prix du Moulin, a Group 1 over a mile. Its a belting contest, with the lineup featuring winners of no fewer than 24 Group races, eleven of them Group 1's! Indeed the only non-winner of a Group race has finished runner up in the French Derby and the Prix Jacques le Marois on his last two starts!

The three main protagonists are 'Gorgeous' George Washington, 'Ravishing' Ramonti, and the deliciously delightful 3yo filly, Darjina.

If you're expecting a tip from me, here it is. Watch the race; enjoy the azure sanguine (that's blue blood!) on parade; and don't be surprised if there's a shock result. (If I had to take one at a price, I'd back Halocene - the non-Group race winner - each way at Tote's 22/1).

On the domestic front, there's nothing to get especially excited about, but a few who should go well and will carry my small stakes are as follows:

Fontwell
2.10 Royal Tender (throwaway each way stake at 33/1, just because it's that man Powell)

3.15 Mickey Pearce (in a race full of dodgy characters, I like the horse who has won two from his last three, albeit in sellers, and he's an each way price to boot at around 16/1. And of course Mickey Pearce was one of Rodney's dodgy mates in Only Fools And Horses...)

4.20 Terramarique (did TTS punters a favour last season, and his win to run ratio (8 from 21) makes him the kind of trier I always like on my side)

4.50 Watch this race! Gordon Elliot - winner of the Grand National for Nag3 followers last season with the 33/1 legend Silver Birch - tipped here at 100/1! - has another formerly high class animal in Salford City. If you think you know the name, its because he finished fifth in the Derby three years ago. Elliot is rapidly making a name for himself as a man who can rejuvenate flagging equine spirits and, while I couldn't entertain betting this one at 1/2, I will hope he wins.

Stratford
4.45 Pip's Assertive Way - course specialist who has won here albeit in selling class. In a race with few decent sorts, 25/1 is tempting from an each perspective. His trainer, A W Carroll, has four in the race!

York
3.25 Zennerman - Jamie Spencer on board for Kevin Ryan. Horse ran well from a poor draw at Beverley last time, and the strong low draw bias here on the round course gives trap 5 a great chance. High Ambition should also run well from the 1 box. Lay any or all of the horses drawn 12+.

Just a quick reminder that if you want to take advantage of the special pricing for TTS, I've extended the deadline until tomorrow (as I haven't had a chance to remind people until now), so check it out here.

Until next time...
Matt

High Class Dog Racing...

Greetings, dear reader, and what a wonderful Thursday this promises to be. The sun is shining, it's nearly Friday, and my favourite dog of all time is running at Salisbury.

As regular readers will know, I love to hate Munsef. He is a talented but slothish individual who could lose a walkover. Good news is that we can lay the life out of him! And I typically do. Today will be no exception.

LAY MUNSEF!!!

I also fancy Pic Up Sticks at Salisbury (in form, right grade, good draw, great trainer and jockey), and Shes Minnie at Warwick (same comments).

More later...

Matt

Hairy Furred

Wednesday, dear reader, is half way to Friday... And it's been a pretty quiet week on the racing front really.

I managed to put up a couple of nice winners here yesterday (Lovelace, 9/2; Felinious, 2/1), got touched off with War Of The Roses at 12/1 (2nd), and laid the living daylights out of Prince Valentine (3rd and now 0 from 8 in Class 7 races and still hasn't won on the all weather, 9/4F).

Today, racing is at York, Kempton, Lingfield (for the third day in a row!), and Hereford.

I like the look of a couple at Hereford, one of which is the TTS runner today, whose name shall go unspoken.

The other features on the TTS 'undercard' (i.e. the appendix list of the 142 trainers with strong records but who didn't quite make the main guide). This horse is trained by Seamus (J W) Mullins, and is Terrible Tenant, in the handicap chase at 3.55.

'Yer man' Seamus has had 7 winners from 19 runners with his older horses (7yo+) here, when they've been 14/1 or shorter in the market (as all TTS runners must be), and in races between September and April (the TTS season).

I like the TT to take the chequered flag today... (never mind Terrible Tenant, that was a Terrible Pun!)

Get hold of TTS now, with special offers all over the place, by clicking here.

Elsewhere, at Kempton tonight, Raise The Goblet (8.50) looks an each way bet to nothing to beat the favourite, who has it to prove on the polytrack surface in my opinion. Care with non-runners however, as there is currently a 'dead 8' for this. One out, and we'll lose an each way place.

Glencal look solid in the 3.45 at Lingfield, with second favourite Shaded Edge, drawn in the car park (14).

But the best race of the day is the Group 3 Strensall Stakes at York, where Echo Of Light will be a warm order under Frankie Dettori. Connections won the race last year with the same horse, and he takes on 2005 winner Mullins Bay again.

Given that nine of the last ten runnings of the race have been won by 3 or 4yo's, I'll swerve them both in search of some value.

Nothing bigger than 8/1 has won in the last decade and, indeed, the second longest price was just 11/2, so don't be expecting too much of a shock.

Just using those stats makes it a two horse race between Royal Oath and Formal Decree. But the somewhat specialist trip of nine furlongs swings my view strongly in favour of Formal Decree, who followed up a win in the Cambridgeshire over the same distance, with two more nine furlong wins in Dubai.

He looks good value at a best priced 9/2, and will not want for effort from the saddle with Kerrin McEvoy booked.

G'luck!

Matt

The Former Home Of Tony Blair...

As you may know, dear reader, Sedgefield is the former constituency of our formerly esteemed (depending on your view, ahem) leader, Mr T Blair.

Never much of a jockey (much more of a trainer type), Blair was oft seen at the track prior to getting the top job, when opportunities to pass time in his own part of the world became much more limited.

Why am I telling you all this? Because the racing season starts at Sedgefield today of course! Sedgey, as I call it, has always been a favourite track of mine, and for no particular reason.

I do fondly remember, however, when I was first getting interested in horse racing, watching the horses roll down that hill and back up the other side on the far side of the course (and watching the terrified Flossie's charging away from the fence!), and I remember watching countless of John Wade's horses in the maroon with the white hoops on the sleeves win or run well.

Interesting to note that, while he has no runners today, he sponsors one of the races. A true Sedgefield institution is Mr Wade.

From a punting perspective, there's unlikely to be any TrainerTrackStats 'main stage' action. But from those that missed the final cut, one to look out for may be Welsh Dream in the 5.15. Mrs S E Forster does rather well with her older handicappers (6 from 25, when 14/1 or shorter, for 23.25 units profit over the last five years).

As good as she does though, she's only good enough for a place 'on the bench' in TTS.

My Sedgey fancies today are:

2.20 Roman Army e/w (Windfola at a HUGE price is definitely worth a second look)
4.05 Felinious (quite strong fancy)

Elsewhere today, and there's a pretty decent card at Goodwood, including the Group 3 Supreme Stakes, a 7f contest for 3yo's and upwards. This is a new race in the calendar and, as such, there are no trends to go with.

The one I like is the progressive Lovelace, from the Mark Johnston yard. He's a front running sort on a track that seems to favour prominent racers, and Johnston's record at the track is exemplary. His record in September at the track is even better, and his record with 7f types is better still.

The (bad) draw should be irrelevant, if - as I expect - he gets out and tries to make all. Lovelace has already been cut to 7/2, and could become something of a gamble. With Spencer riding, as long as he goes from the front, this is the one they have to beat.

At Leafy Lingfield, Silent Storm (3.55) looks underrated, even if he is better over a furlong further. There's likely to be plenty of pace on here, and he could scoot through late to reward each way support at around 20/1.

Also, War Of The Roses (4.30) catches the eye with Dane O'Neill booked to ride, and the step up in trip could favour this son of brilliant middle distance'r Singspiel. Again, place money may be gotten at around 16/1.

I'm against Prince Valentine in the 5.05. He's been beaten in no fewer than seven of these Class 7 races, and has never won on the all weather (indeed, he's only 2 from 49 in his career, both at Brighton). He might win, but the chances are he'll find one or two too good, as ever.

Don't forget that there's a special offer on TrainerTrackStats right now, which I'll hold until the end of the weekend. So if you want read more about that, click here and get in before close of play Sunday, when the prices will increase.

Happy Tuesday!
Matt

This Time Last Year...

Monday, dear reader, another Monday. And the racing I'm afraid to say is as uninspiring as the prospect of five days at the office...

Regular readers will know that I have a phobia to betting on Mondays, as the racing seems to be pants and personally I just can't find winners. Given that every race, no matter how bad, has a winner, it's the latter point that's a lot more pertinent than the former.

The weekend saw the start of the TrainerTrackStats season, with racing at Newton Abbot and Market Rasen.

We went very close at Newton Abbot with our sole representative, Forest Green, who - to my biased eye at least - should have won the big chase at 5/1. He was badly baulked a couple of times on the final circuit and then was given a less than polished ride by his amateur rider to get caught on the run-in, thus finishing second. (Again, regular readers know my views on amateur riders...!)

At Market Rasen yesterday, there were no such hard luck stories. Those of you who looked in the appendix to TrainerTrackStats will have noted that JJ Quinn is worthy of a second glance at Rasen (amongst others), and he duly obliged with his only runner at 7/1.

That was a side show however, and the main man at the track, Peter Bowen, was disappointing. Its interesting to note that the jockey he employed yesterday (Paddy Merrigan) is 1 from 22 for Bowen, whereas usual first choice T J O'Brien has a much healthier 16 from 83 record this year. Hindsight etc...

Now then, I wonder if you'll indulge me for a moment, while I take a trip down Memory Lane to this time last year. After a similarly frustrating start to the season, on 6th September, Montevideo strolled home at 7/1 at Uttoxeter to register TTS' first winner of the season. There was then a break in the jump racing action until 17th September, when Marc Of Brilliance romped home at 8/1.

But nothing could compare with the truly amazing day we had on 21st September. The results were as follows:

21/09/2006 Fontwell Irish Whispers 1st 12 £240
21/09/2006 Fontwell Sonoma 1st 10 £200
21/09/2006 Fontwell Eljay's Boy 1st 4 £80
21/09/2006 Fontwell Saby 3rd 12 -£20
21/09/2006 Perth Glingerbank 1st 0.67 £13
21/09/2006 Perth Knowhere 1st 2 £40
21/09/2006 Perth Billyandi 1st 1.38 £28
21/09/2006 Perth Scribano Eile 1st 1.25 £25
21/09/2006 Perth Thai Vango 1st 1.38 £28

Indeed, Saby, the only beaten horse, finished 3rd in the race that Eljay's Boy won!

As phenomenal and freakish as that day was, the rest of September was pretty special too, with the following results to the end of the month:

24/09/2006 Huntingdon Astyanax 1st 3.5 £70
24/09/2006 Huntingdon Toss The Caber 3rd 5 -£20
24/09/2006 Huntingdon Terramarique 1st 1.88 £38
24/09/2006 Huntingdon Rakalackey 3rd 3.5 -£20
24/09/2006 Huntingdon Ameeq 1st 0.54 £11
26/09/2006 Sedgefield Three Mirrors 2nd 11 -£20
28/09/2006 Hereford L'Eau Du Nil 3rd 1.75 -£20
29/09/2006 Hexham Shiwawa 1st 0.5 £10
29/09/2006 Hexham Linagram 2nd 5.5 -£20
30/09/2006 Fontwell Fairl' Express 1st 8.5 £170

Now of course that kind of form is unsustainable, but 13 winners from 19 runners and the remaining six in the frame is testament to the incredible advantage that these stats can offer.

And with prices like 12/1, 10/1 and 17/2 amongst the shorter priced winners, that's pretty special.

Indeed, and I'm just entertaining a whimsy here, if you'd managed to do a £5 accumulator (or 2, to cover the race with two runners) on the 21st September (I wish!), you'd have come away with no less than £268,017.75. Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy!

Ok, history lesson over. I'm sure you can see why I'm sharing this with you, so it just remains for me to point you in the direction of the current version for season 2007/8.

A quick reminder of the bottom line, based on 5 years of stats, but focusing on last year's results for the nominated trainers.

Financially, backing all TTS horses at SP last season would have returned a profit - to £20 stakes - of £11,150. Now I obviously can't promise that the trainers will perform so well this season, but if they only do a quarter as well, that's still more than £2,750 profit at SP.

If using an exchange such as Betfair, where odds are on average 16% higher, you would have returned over £12,000, after paying commission.

TTS horses won on average 35.51% of the time last season, and were placed in the first three a staggering 62.89% of the time. That means over one in three runners was a winner, and almost two out of every three runners was placed.

Backing these trainers in the nominated races over the course of the last five seasons, for just £20 stakes at SP, would have returned a very satisfying £52,123.80.

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The jumping action continues tomorrow at Sedgefield...

Don't miss out - get your copy now!
Matt