Limited Time Offer For TrainerTrackStats 2007/8

As promised, dear reader, here are the details on how you can get your hands on a copy of the Brand New TrainerTrackStats (TTS) guide, for the jumps season starting tomorrow, 1st September.

First, let me quickly remind you of what TTS is.

TTS is the number one e-guide to profitable niche trainer / track combinations. It focuses in only on horses starting at 14/1 or shorter, to ensure that all qualifiers are fancied to run well.

TTS only operates between tomorrow (i.e. start of September) and end of April, which we consider to be the 'true' National Hunt season.

Financially, backing all TTS horses at SP last season would have returned a profit - to just £20 stakes - of £11,150. Now I can't promise that the trainers will perform so well this season, but if they only do a quarter as well, that's still more than £2,750 profit at SP.

If using an exchange such as Betfair, where odds are on average 16% higher, you would have returned over £12,000, after paying commission.

TTS horses won on average 35.51% of the time last season, and were placed in the first three a staggering 62.89% of the time. That means over one in three runners was a winner, and almost two out of every three runners was placed.

TO GET YOUR COPY

To get your copy, simply go to the relevant section below, depending on whether you've bought or subscribed to either TrainerTrackStats or TrainerFlatStats before, and select the option that suits you best. [I know I don't have to say this, but if you've never been a member and you select the Existing Customer option, your access will be revoked amid embarrassment for both of us...]

NEW CUSTOMER

If you have never been a member of either TFS or TTS, please click here.

EXISTING CUSTOMER

If you have already been a member of either TFS or TTS, please click here.

The action starts tomorrow at Newton Abbot with a couple of live chances!

Don't miss out - get your copy now!
Matt

Friday Fun & The Return Of TTS: Very Special Offer

Phew-wee, dear reader. What a week! I've been slaving away putting the finishing touches to TTS (that's TrainerTrackStats for those of you who are new, and those of you who have been hibernated for the last several months..), and I have to say it's the best yet.

There are some really strong trends, and the biggest problem I had (apart from all the bloody formatting in Word!) was deciding who to exclude.

I decided that I didn't want an average of more than three horses to back per day, so I drew the line at a maximum of three trainers per track. Some tracks have less than that, but none have more.

Many of our old friends from last year re-appear (unsurprisingly), and there are new kids on the block as well. Some of these are obvious, like David Pipe, but some are much less so, like Paul Keane and Alison Thorpe.

One thing unites all of the trainers in TrainerTrackStats: they have all been notably successful at a given course with a specific type of horse, or in a specific type of race.

As well as the guide, which now covers all courses bar Cartmel and Worcester (pretty much all summer jumping only at these tracks, and Worcester is currently subaquatic!), I have appended all of the trainers who were under consideration for entry due to their positive trends. This amounts to the small matter of 244 possibles!

I whittled these down to 102 for the guide itself, using a stars system, as follows:

Each trainer received a star for any of the following (with horses starting at 14/1 or shorter, between September and April over the last five seasons):

- 15 or more winners at the track
- Strike Rate of 35% or more (winners to runners)
- A profit of 25 units or more to a 1 unit stake
- A profit of 1.25 units per runner to a 1 unit stake

In most cases, trainers have at least two stars, and in one case, a trainer has all four stars. He is a good betting friend of mine, Alan King, but if you want to know where he is the TOP top man, you'll need to get the guide... ;)

I'll send you an email later today to let you know how you can get a copy, and of course, as regular readers of my blog, you will get the best deal. Well.... almost the best deal.

The best deal of all is reserved for my existing customers. If you've already bought TFS and/or TTS, or a current subscriber to Laying System, you're in for a particularly special offer, as a thank you from me for being a loyal customer.

More to follow.... but for now, let's get to the Friday Fun....

This week, say hello to the funniest cross-dresser on the planet (not sure how much competition there is for that coveted award).... Mr Eddie Izzard.... (warning, expletives from the outset, don't play in the office without headphones!)



Good weekend to you all, and look out for the TTS email later today!

Matt

Almost Jumping!

Hello again, dear reader, from your occasional posting virtual horse racing friend.

Before I begin, another apology.... Now I would never advise anybody to ask me to navigate for them on a road trip, and my pedantic (though absolutely correct) correspondent Kev has highlighted another error in my scribblings. This time, it relates to the part of France I was in at the weekend.

It seems that I was not in Brittany, but rather in Pas De Calais, some couple of hundred miles east along the coast. Nevertheless, it was marvellous, and the first of the 'vin' has been consumed. :)

Kev likes to pick me up on my errors and, as one pedant to another, I like to be corrected! Thanks mate!

On to horsey stuff, and I just wanted to give you a quick update on TrainerTrackStats' progress. Well, the research is now complete and today, I shall be 'making the cut' (i.e. deciding which trainers get in and which do not).

I will share with you those that miss the cut, to give you an indication of the data in the guide, but also because these guys are worth following in their own right.

Look out for a further post on this, either late tomorrow or Saturday.

I am really excited about the information I've gathered, and am looking forward to sharing it.

Onto today's racing and, although it looks pretty miserable fare, I think I've found a couple of opportunities.

Firstly, let's rock up to Musselburgh (where my mate Jerry is punting today - strange venue for a South London based Chelsea fan, but he has business up that way which I guess is why he's there rather than at Lingfield!).

In the 5f sprints, high numbers have been favoured on fast ground for years. So, I'll cut this fourteen runner affair down to size by only looking at double figure draws (could be careless as the forecast favourite is in box 9...).

The five of interest to me then are, in racecard order, Strensall, Methaaly, Strawberry Patch, Seafield Towers, and Mutayam.

Strensall: All 8 wins have been over 5f, 7 of 8 on good ground or faster. Course and distance winner operating in the right grade, from almost the pick of the draw and with a decent jockey up. Very interesting.

Methaaly: Never won at 5f, though has come close (all 3 wins at 6f). Never won a handicap in this class. I'm not sure about the apprentice jockey either. Swerve.

Strawberry Patch: 3 times a course and distance winner; all four career wins over 5f; has not won in this class since 2004; last two course and distance starts, was outclassed in higher grade, then was unlucky in running and not beaten far at this level. Interesting each way contender at big price.

Seafield Towers: Not won for two years, formerly useful, but seems very much on the downgrade now. Finished almost last or last in eight of last nine starts. Big leap of faith required.

Mutayam: 1 win from 37 starts, and that a 66/1 shocker 3 years ago. Hasn't been in the first four in TWENTY starts since. Won't change that today.

So for me, the 25 on betfair about Strensall looks huge, and the Strawberry Patch at around 16's is also worthy of each way interest.

On the laying side of things, I'll wander down to Lingfield, and take a couple on.

Firstly, Central Force in the 2.50 looks the most consistent, but may very well not have the race run to suit today. In a race with a lot of contenders, he looks short enough at around 5/2.

At 4.20, a nothing looking maiden has Richard Hannon's Ike Quebec currently trading at 3.15. Having his first run on the sand today, he looks a false favourite to me. V Haigh's Honey Monster has the best form, is open to improvement (as is the favourite, and just about every other horse in the race!), and has a decent sand run under his belt.

There are other possibles in the race as well, with Mark Johnston's Cordon Bleu, as well as unexposed horses from the yards of Stan Moore, Jamie Osborne, Neville Callaghan, and Marcus Tregoning, so Hannon's horse is a lay for me.

Hope your punting is treating you well, and that you're almost ready for some jumping action!

Matt

The Silence Is Golden, Trust Me

Apologies, dear reader, for the lack of content here over the past few days, and for the fact that it is likely to be the case until the weekend.

The reasons are varied, but mainly revolve around time away from the laptop and time researching TTS (for which I am currently a bit behind schedule).

Special apologies to subscribers to my email services, who will have noticed that they did not receive their usual daily mails yesterday. Although there were no qualifiers for either service, I was unable to share this information, due to the fact that apparently the French do not need internet cafe's. I couldn't find one open in the whole of Brittany (well, Boulogne or Calais anyway!).

Which leads me on to where I've been for the last couple of days....

Now I fancy myself as a bit of a cunning linguist (hoo hoo hoo) when it comes to English, but it's only when you put yourself in a different country that you truly appreciate the joys of rudimentary communication. A weekend pootling around the Breton, trying to make myself understood in my pidjun parlance was really great.

To anyone who lives in the South of England, I seriously recommend doing what I and my lady friend did: drive to Folkestone, hop on the Eurotunnel, and emerge in Calais barely half an hour later.

We parked the car in the FREE car park next to the train station and, without a plan, just jumped on a train in a direction. Alas, due to our timescale (we only had two days), we were limited in where we could get to (direct trains from Calais only go as far as Amiens to the West or Lille to the East).

Nevertheless, we decided on Boulogne-sur-mer, which was about 40 minutes away. A short amble with our little backpacks and we found a hotel for the night. Then for some serious strolling. Lovely beaches there, and we had a couple of bieres along the front.

Then a long leisurely dinner (steak au poivre) with a decent Crozes Hermitage, and a spot of cognac before retiring.

Yesterday, we stopped between Boulogne and Calais in a little place called Wimille Wimereux (or Wimmy Wimmy as we pronounced it). It's ostensibly a nothing little village stop, but it's right on the Breton coast, so we walked down to the beach, and strolled and sat and ate ice cream and strolled and sat and drank a beer and strolled, then had lunch.

A weird thing about Brittany is that one of the food specialities is 'Welsh'. That is, welsh rarebit (or cheese on toast if you prefer).

Well, I swear that I have never seen so much cheese on a single meal in my life.
A two inch deep, six inch across, terrine dish had a piece of bread (think Sunblest, not baguette), and a slice of ham in it. The remainder was then filled to within about a quarter of an inch of the brim with what looked and tasted like (and therefore probably was!) Red Leicester.

It truly was a dinner to make Elvis Presley baulk at the thought of the effect it might have on his heart!

Having fished through the fromage for the toast and ham, I emerged slightly punch drunk from cheese consumption into the afternoon breeze once more.

I managed to get the train times wrong (incidentally, very clean and punctual train, just not very frequent), so we strolled the other side of the station into fields and countryside. Lots of fields full of maize, and a few kids chucking water at each other, and a couple of cows, were the only things we encountered. Marvellous.

Then back to Calais to pick up the car, and do some serious booze cruise shopping. I'm a big fan of French white wines and Italian reds. In the absence of anything decent in the latter camp, I treated myself to some splendid looking Premier Cru's from Alsace (Pinot Gris) and the Southwest (Sancerre, Montigny, Puilly-Fume), and also a couple of decent looking reds (Chateauneuf du Pape and a 1999 Fleurie).

These will be savoured before the next run, which will be soon.

Taking out my wine indulgence and a hearty dinner, and the whole affair cost me about £120 (£65 for the Eurotunnel, £35 for the room and breakfast, and £20 for the train tickets).

If you get the chance, try it!

Today is a logical Monday in racing terms and therefore I'll not be wagering horses. However, the footy looks interesting tonight, and a treble featuring Liverpool, Celtic and Arsenal may very well reward at best priced 3.18 with Bet365. I'll be having a slice of that.

For the rest of the week, I'm afraid - as I've mentioned - there will be little of interest here, as I slave over the last elements of research and pulling the document together for TrainerTrackStats. The guide will be available before the website is ready, and there will of course be special offers for Nag3 readers.

So if you know of anybody who might be interested, be sure and use the 'Tell A Friend' link at the top left of the page.

Bon Mardi!
Matt

Friday Fun: This Man Needs No Introduction...

Picture quality not great, gag value immense, even after all these years. A real Bank Holiday treat, dear reader....

Jumping To The Fore!

Crikey, is it Friday already, dear reader? And not just any old Friday, but Friday before a Bank Holiday! Woohoo!

Now lest you are concerned about the forecast (those readers in Australia and NZ need not fret, nor need you gloat!!), let me assure you that the Met Office is predicting broadly sunny weather for the weekend. And of course, the Met Office are known for their infallibility... Ahem... Well, at least it gives us hope! :)

Now then, I know we've only just finished York's Juddmonte meeting and - as I've mentioned - we are not yet even at the August Bank Holiday.

But I need to remind you that darker times are ahead...

Yes, racing fans, the evening racing will draw to a close next week (although there will be plenty of floodlit action from Wolves, Kempton and the new Dundalk - not to mention Great Leighs if it ever opens!), and the jumping action starts to ramp up from the beginning of September.

In my piece yesterday, apart from blowing out on the placepot at York (though Mine ran a great race in 4th at 16/1, and I did tip the 2yo to win the Nunthorpe! Amazing training performance from a brilliant up and coming trainer. Look out for John Best), I managed to bag the forecast at Chester (the third horse mentioned in the exacta was a non-runner).

Incidentally, the third home in that race was the only other horse with experience and was the fourth best drawn horse in the race. Shocking then that his odds were 80/1!!!

My tip in the sprint, Calypso King, was a non-runner.

But what I really want to mention - again - is the amazing power of backing trainers at tracks. Although Jonjo's chaser was disappointing at Stratford, the boys at Fontwell did me proud.

Here is the full tale of the tape for the trainers flagged up yesterday:

5.25 1st 25/1, 2nd 33/1, 4th 8/1, 6th 25/1, 11th 16/1, PU 10/1
5.55 6th 4/1, UR 16/1
6.25 1st 11/2, 3rd 14/1
6.55 No runners
7.25 5th 14/1
7.55 4th 25/1

Brendan Powell and Alan King, described by me yesterday as legends, underlined their status on this card.

Powell slammed in the forecast in the first (paid £621.27!) with 25/1 and 33/1 shots; King snaffled the third with an 11/2 shot (Powell only managing 3rd at 14/1).

The other lesser trainers had some huge priced beasties run close but without any danger of rolled tobacco.

A unit on each of the runners last night would have returned a very tidy profit.

As a further teaser for you, I've put the candidate trainer stats up on a page... but with the trainers names missing! And, in case you think you can compare the table with the Racing Post charts or some such, I've got some bad news for you. I only look at the record from September to April, and I only look at horses priced 14/1 or shorter. I know, I'm a sneaky blighter.

Anyway, if you'd like to see what's going on, have a look at my TrainerTrackStats preview page.

Bear in mind that, unless stated otherwise, the 'fine tuning' has yet to be done. That is, the records are for all of a trainer's runners in the defined time and price parameters. But you'll get the idea, for sure.

Like I said, I'm excited about this season, because there are so many strong trends. The problem is going to be whittling them down. I think what I'll do this season is nominate the top two or three a la TrainerFlatStats, and mention the others as worthy of a second glance (though for subscribers they'll not feature in the emails). That said, this is not yet caste in stone.

I don't really fancy much today, but draw bias at Thirsk (high numbers in sprints on good to firm) leads me to take a close look at Call For Liberty in the 1.30 (best form, best draw). His chief rivals, in the betting at least, are drawn 2 and 3 (i.e. almost the worst draws possible).

In the 4.45, a 5f sprint, its interesting that the top four in the market are all badly drawn. Racing Post informs us that 7/10 5f sprints this season have gone to the top three stalls. Perm them in exactas and CSF's (half stake on each). That's Yorke's Folly, Smiddy Hill, and Miacarla. It may also be worth chucking in Princess Cleo (drawn 10) for a great chance to collect.

That's it from me. Back later with Friday fun, though please note there may be little of interest on the blog this weekend, as I will be researching Trainer Track Stats and may try to get away for a day or two as well.

Finally, just a quick line to say thank you to those people who were kind enough to comment on my little story the other day. I know it didn't really belong here, but I just wanted to give a virtual voice to some of my thoughts. Thanks again.

Until later, pip pip!
Matt

What A Cracking Day For A Punt!

Its one of those days today, dear reader, when everywhere I look, I think I fancy one. Strange, as the racing is fiendishly hard today.

I'll start at York with a placepot:

1. Dark Angel / Drawnfromthepast (e/w bet) / Dedo / New Jersey
2. Fleeting Spirit
3. Smart Enough / Flipando / Docofthebay / We'll Come
4. Magnus / Moorhouse Lad / Hoh Mike / Kingsgate Native (maiden 2yo in all age Group 1!!!)
5. Mine (great chance) / Dabbers Ridge / Somnus
6. Winter Sunrise

192 x 20p = £38.40

Elsewhere, and up to Chester for the evening meeting. Some biggish fields mean there may be some draw bias to play with (low numbers very strongly favoured, as you probably know).

In the 6.40, a 2yo maiden, the three most experienced horses (Far Gone, Harry Gee and Madame Rio) are drawn 1, 2 and 3. Given that experience in a 2yo maiden is usually worth a couple of lengths at the gate, I will perm these three in a combination exacta to get away and stay away.

Half an hour later, in the 5f sprint, I like Calypso King. He has only been drawn well once out of three starts here at Chester, and won that race. From the four box today, he has a great draw for his style of racing. I'm hoping he can sit in behind the pace, and if/when the split comes, scoot through in the final two furlongs. 10/1 or bigger will be very alluring...

And then we go to the jumps cards. I'm now pretty well advanced with my research for TrainerTrackStats, the jumping equivalent of TrainerFlatStats, and I don't mind admitting that I'm VERY excited about what I'm seeing.

I've currently got just over 275 possible trainer / track combinations to whittle down, and there are some tasty fish in that catch!

At Fontwell, legends Alan King and Brendan Powell are always worthy of respect. But look out also for Charlie Mann, J W Mullins, Mrs A M Thorpe, and Peter Bowen.

Meanwhile, over at Stratford, Jonjo's In Extra Time looks tempting in the handicap chase.

A punting frenzy then for yours truly. Normally, when I feel like this about the racing, I'm happy to break even at the end of the day.... Your card is marked accordingly! ;)

Matt

An Extraordinary Tale of an Everyday Hero...

If you’ll forgive my self-indulgence, dear reader, I’d like to tell you a little story…

Once upon a time, in a not so very far away land, there lived a boy. The boy lived with his mother and his father and his baby sister in a small and humble dwelling. The boy and his family were poor. His father worked on the land, and - before he was school age - the boy learnt to work the land too.

The boy had no toys, but he wasn't sad. He loved his simple pleasures: sunshine, his friends, and the occasional fig which fell from a neighbour's tree.

The family struggled from day to day to make enough to put bread on the table. They would buy a 40lb sack of grain, and the boy would carry it the two miles down to the miller, who ground the grain. In the hot sun, the boy then carried the flour two miles back up the hill. The sack no lighter, and the journey now uphill, but at least it was closer to being bread.

This particular time though, there was no salt to make the bread. The bread always had to last for forty days, so forty days with saltless bread beckoned for the boy and his family. But the boy was both resourceful and tenacious. And he snuck into a nearby barn, where he knew the wild chickens roosted, and he corraled some eggs.

With the eggs, he went to the village grocer, who knew him well, and asked him if he would trade eggs for salt. The grocer smiled a knowing smile, and duly swapped.

Two days later, the bread made, the first warm bites savoured down to their last crumbs, and the remainder stowed for the following six weeks, the boy was playing near the grocer in the square. The grocer called him over. "Where did you get those eggs?!", he barked. "Why?", replied the boy sheepishly. "One of them had a chick in it!", the grocer boomed, his face then cracking into a smile. "Oh, sorry, I'll get you another", said the boy through his embarrassment.

Another time, the boy bought a ticket in a local Christmas raffle for the smallest unit of currency available and, as luck would have it, on this occasion he was fortunate. His prize was a small doll, about two inches high. Of course, he gave it to his sister, as he gave most everything he earned or won to his family. Except for the occasional priceless fig, which he snaffled and savoured.

A couple of years later, when he was about twelve, he was talking with a friend about how his family needed a calf to rear, so that they could mate from their bullock. Overhearing the conversation, the boy's friend's father looked over and, seeing the earnestness of his son's friend, offered one of his own calves. The boy was overwhelmed. "But how can I pay you?", he asked. "Don't worry", said the man, "I know you, you’ll pay me when you can."

The boy led the calf home to his father and the rest of his family, by now with the addition of another boy, his baby brother. They were incredulous with disbelief. Over the next couple of years, the family reared the calf to near adulthood. She was almost ready to breed from.

But at that time the family owed some money, and the creditor would wait no longer for repayment. The boy went and asked his godfather for help to pay the debt, but his godfather turned his back, even though he was comfortably well off. The creditor came and took the cow, and slaughtered it for meat, despite the pleas of the boy and his family.

A few months later, the boy had gathered the money to pay his friend's father back for the calf that he had so generously offered those years before. When he arrived at the house, his friend's father thanked him for the money and asked how the cow was doing, and if they'd bred from her yet.

Fighting back his tears, the boy explained that the cow had been lost as payment of a debt, and that they had no way of breeding from their - by now – fully grown bull.

The friend's father was taken aback and looked first at the boy, then at his own small herd. He had half a dozen, maybe seven, cows and offered the boy his pick. The boy was once more stunned by the generosity of his friend’s father, but explained that he couldn't pay for the cow as he had spent all his money on the previous one. The friend's father was a truly kind man, and not selfish. He said he knew the boy would pay for the first one – as he just had, and he knew he'd pay for this one too. When he could.

Beside himself with gratitude, the boy said he wouldn't know which cow to choose. The man suggested a gaunt looking one, who he said took little feeding, but offered plentiful milk. The man also offered to buy the milk from the cow, if the family wanted, but that this was their choice.

*********

When he was barely old enough, and with no education, that same brave and tenacious boy, now a young man, travelled to a land many times farther away then than it is now, to seek a new life and to support his family from afar.

With not even so much of the local dialect as 'hello', he learned a few formalities and took a job working on tables and washing pots. Soon after, his energy and people skills were spotted and rewarded. He was offered, and accepted, a job in a very upmarket establishment, where he worked with and learned from the best in his trade. He earned good money and he sent almost all of it home.

Within six months, he had 300 in the bank, and withdrew all but 1 to take home. When he travelled back, he visited his friend, and repaid his father.

While the young man had been away, the cow had been introduced to the bull, and they got along very well. So well, in fact, that there were two calves on the land as well as the adult animals.

The young man also learnt that his godfather had unfortunately drowned while swimming in the bay. Some said that he had been drowned. The young man didn’t forget how he had turned his back before and lost no sleep now.

The young man enjoyed his visits home, and was warmly welcomed by his family: his doting mother, his proud father, his younger sister who worshipped him, and his younger brother (whom the young man considered his first son in many ways).

But his life was elsewhere. His life was now in England, where in the future he was to have a family, and own businesses and property. He would do all of this with no education and with no money to start. Without even the rudiments of the language to help him be understood.

He would always be caring and generous, and he would always be selfless. He never charged people who couldn’t afford it the full price for anything. He would feed hungry people when others turned their back. Because he'd known how that felt.

For this reason, he would not be a great businessman, but he would be a great man.

This is just a tiny snapshot of the true story that makes this man, now in his late sixties, a hero to me.

An everyday hero: he’s my dad. :)

Matt

Rapidly Becoming Technophobic...

Hello from Weymouth, dear reader, as I continue my ongoing battle with technology, notably the heap of steaming excrement known also as Windows Vista.

That poxy operating system has stuffed up my laptop to such a degree now that I can only use my own wifi connection (itself enjoying a break from me caning it with requests for data transfer) with it. Even though I am the administrator for my pc, it will not allow me to change any settings. I despair! This post is written from a nice little internet cafe in Weymouth: Portland really is a place to get away from it all, including dial up and mobile phone signals. I can't get either up there!!!

Enough already. After a typically quiet Monday, racing explodes into life today with the start of the York Ebor meeting.

The undoubted highlight of the day, and one of the races of the season, is the Juddmonte International Stakes.

This race pitches the Derby winner (Authorized) against the Eclipse winner (Notnowcato) against the King George winner (Dylan Thomas). Chuck in the sand monster Asiatic Boy and the perennial Group 1 scrapper, Duke of Marmalade, and its a race short in numbers but titanium strong in class.

Authorized looked the most impressive Derby winner for a few years, but we mustn't forget that Derby winners' subsequent record (especially against older horses) is pretty atrocious. The last few have failed to win another race post-Epsom.

I don't think Authorized will struggle to get his nose in front again, but he may do today.

The race here is over a mile and a quarter, and he was beaten by Notnowcato in the Eclipse over this trip. Indeed, 'cato was ridden tactically superbly that day by Ryan Moore but, in case you think it might have been a fluke, remember that he also won the Eclipse the previous year.

Sir Michael Stoute can learn little from any other living soul when it comes to training older horses, and 'cato may come out on top again.

Dylan Thomas is another horse who has improved into his post-Classic year, and was unequivocal in despatching a sub-standard King George field last time out.

This is a sterner examination, and I also believe he is better over slightly further.

The Duke (Of Marmalade) has been competing with credit in top races this season, and will likely enjoy the ten furlong trip today, but I don't feel he has quite the penchant for this distance that 'cato does.

Asiatic Boy is a class horse. On sand. He ran as well as could be expected in the Sussex Stakes, but a point to note about top sand horses (indeed all sand horses) is that they appreciate an end to end gallop. Despite the presence of a pacemaker in here, I expect this to develop into a three furlong sprint, and the Boy to beat only the 'bunny' home. He will return on dirt and win at a nice price before the season is out - indeed, I'd love to back him in the Breeders Cup Classic where he'd beat any of today's rivals.

So I'm quite strong on Notnowcato today, and will happily lay Asiatic Boy for a place until the cows come home (and they're a loooooooooong way from home, like me, right now!).

It's a very tough looking card indeed, but one I fancy at a decent price in the Acomb Stakes is Clive Brittain's Mut'Ab. He's quick, and has been running with a lot of credit in two decent maidens (just behind Campanologist last time). At around 20/1, he's worth a small interest.

Good luck with your Eboracum wagers.
Matt

Racing Members Club Review: Jury Still Out...

Well, dear reader, the first full week's results are in for Racing Members Club and, after a fantastic week, the weekend has been nothing shy of awful.

Three winners at decent prices from five selections over Saturday and Sunday have taken all of the lustre off an impressive previous five days.

The full results are as follows:

Redc	Robbie Scott	LOST		£19
Wolv	Musical Charm	LOST		£19
Stra	Salesin	LOST		£19
Stra	Lusaka De Pembo	WON	3.8	-£76
Thir	Next Flight	LOST		£19
Newt	Knightsbridge Hill	LOST		£19
Newt	Once A Brownie	LOST		£19
Muss	Radiator Rooney	LOST		£19
Salis	6 Shavoulin	LOST		£19
Salis	5 Olympian Odyssey	LOST		£19
Salis	2 Aphorism	LOST		£19
Tram	9 The Spoonplayer	LOST		£19
Folk	9 Red Raptor	LOST		£19
Tram	2 Lyical Assassin	LOST		£19
Tram	5 Bennys Quest	LOST		£19
Bang	6 Englishtown	LOST		£19
Newb	5 Pippa Greene	WON	5	-£100
Tram	7 Santas Son	WON	4.3	-£86
Bath	5 Dixieland Boy	LOST		£19
Tram	5 Lucys Mate	WON	8.4	-£168
				-£126

16 losers and just four winners (80% strike rate), but the winners came at decent prices, and knocked the stuffing out of good run of losers.

Of course, a week is too short a window to fully and fairly appraise a laying service, which can always take hits in the short term. However, the downside risk of laying 7, 8 or 9/1 shots is often not something that people find palatable. Many of the selections nominated by Racing Members Club are sent off nearer a double digit price than an odds on price.

Another thing with a service such as this (and indeed my own Laying System) is that by just receiving the selections, you cannot vouch for the logic that went into those picks.

[With Laying System, I can tell you that there are a number of factors I look at and, although I only offer a tipster type service, the horses put up by me are based on system criteria, rather than personal sentiment. Although this is sometimes frustrating - when I think one will win, like the other day - I have faith in the overall ability of the method to find overbet losers].

Ultimately, I have to say the jury is still out on Racing Members Club. I cannot say anything about how they find their lays, and I will continue to monitor with interest how the runners progress. I will not, however, be posting them to the blog any longer.

I'm off down to Dorset this afternoon, where I'll be spending a couple of days at my father's hotel (check the link here...), enjoying a touch of R&R.

Happy Monday.
Matt

Monday Musing: Referee!

Monday, dear reader, already. And what a wet one it is too, at least in this leafy alcove in Hackney.

After a couple of close ones on Saturday (Obe Gold especially), Laying System got its only horse of the day beaten (out of the frame at 7/4) for a good Sunday, following on from four out four turned over on Saturday. In fairness, this was much needed after a couple of decent priced winners in the week set us back a bit.

I chose not to play the footy yesterday, and rightly so. I fancied Manchester United, but they are a big toothless basking shark at the moment, and need to find their stride quickly, before its over for them.

As for Liverpool and Chelsea, the only word I can use for the refereeing performace of Rob Styles is 'inept'.

In a game with a fair amount of huff and puff, but very little 'blow your house in', Styles barely had a decision to make. There wasn't a bad tackle in the game (though there were a few petulant little kicks), and - happily - there wasn't a dive in the game.

And yet, this became a card fest, with a fiesta of yellow and a touch of red that would have graced a Madrid derby, arbitrated by one of the Spanish League's more finnicky middlemen.

After the farce at Fulham on Saturday, I am rapidly revising my opinion of video replays for goalmouth incidents.

The fact is that there is rarely much incident in a game that would require the '3rd umpire' as rugby calls it. In a compelling end to end match, the video might be called for three times. Usually, it would not be required at all.

The main reason for my change of heart is not that I am especially in favour of technology encroaching in the beautiful game (rather, in this case, I am a traditionalist and believe that there should be some mistakes and grey areas to discuss in the pub).

However, there are mistakes and mistakes. The current litany of officiating howlers is unacceptable, and it is only the ineptitude of the men in black that sways me to suggest assistance for them.

Sure, the game is getting faster, and also there is more and more cash at stake, from the fans, from the clubs, and - of course, from us punters.

If I'd backed Liverpool yesterday, I'd be spitting feathers for longer than Rafa ranted.

My biggest worry now is that referees are trying to take their moment in the limelight. The days of a ref having a great game by being virtually anonymous are pretty much over. Step forward then, the cult of the referee 'personality'.

It started with undoubtedly the best adjudicator of them all, Pierluigi Collina, a man whose bald head and Marty Feldman'esque stary eyes marked him out more for Hollywood bad guy roles than maintainer of the peace.

This guy's credibility bestowed upon him cult status, as did his looks. Since then though, its been a slippery slope, with first the Spanish refs getting column inches for the issuance of 'tarjetas' (or cards as we like to call them), and then Graham Poll (a ref I actually like on balance) having that mare at the World Cup, when he gave one player THREE yellow cards before finally sending him off.

Lest we think its all doom and gloom, we should remember that Poll was only given that game (Australia vs Croatia) - acknowledged as the toughest group game to officiate, by a mile - because he was considered capable.

Indeed, a more satisfactory performance would have put Graham in Poll Position (duh!) for ref'ing the final.

But there are two many mistakes at the moment. Maybe its new season rustiness, maybe its the growing cult of the referee, maybe its just a comedy coincidence. Whatever the reason, it needs to change, and it needs to change very soon.

Until then, high on the cards market may be the play (although historically this has lost more than its gained).

Over in Fantasy Football Land, a better display from my boys saw me amass 56 points this weekend (would have been 60 but for Styles' ineptitude costing me a clean sheet!).

However, for all of my good score here, I'm currently lounging outside of the UEFA Cup spots in 9th. Runaway early leader is Paddy Meagher's Kicking Kings, whose team has amassed him 149 points and ranks him in the 5,000s out of 1,196,265 teams overall. A very fine start, Mr Meagher, but are you Wigan in disguise? ;)

Heading the chasers at the moment is 'thin air', Paddy being 18 points clear of the next best unit, Irvin Lim's SmokinTree&Strokin3s (which I presume is a reference to golf, somehow?). Its then a further ten back to Darren Smith, with seven more teams within a further ten points.

A special mention for Danny Edwards' team, who are currently the strongest in the league (i.e. they prop up everyone else!). Poor Danny has gone for Manchester United players, and has also been unlucky with a few injuries. I'm sure your boys will come good soon.

Back later with a review of Racing Members Club, and the full tale of the tape on that laying service.

Matt

Today's Racing Members Club Lays

Happy Sunday, dear reader, and a quick catch up on yesterday.

First of all, thanks to Kev for pointing out that one of my two for the Hungerford was in fact a filly, which I should have discounted according to my own criteria. Red Evie went on to win, and the horse I liked, Stronghold, ran a good 3rd at 9/1.

In the Great St Wilfred Handicap at Ripon, it seems the world and his wife were tipping Obe Brave, and the horse very nearly obliged. He was beaten a short head at 14/1, having been available at double those odds earlier.

Interesting to note that the first six home were drawn 20,22,9,21,19,23. In other words, five of the first six home were the five highest drawn horses.

The obvious one to take from the race then is Indian Trail, who ran a blinder from what was clearly an impossible draw to be beaten only a short head and half a length.

This one looks likely to win a big sprint handicap this season, when better drawn.

A fine day for the Laying System lays, with four beaten from four, and another winner at 4/1 from four selections for TrainerFlatStats (also a 2nd and a 3rd) sees that service remain in fine form. Links to these services are on the left of the page under the 'LINKS' heading, surprisingly enough!

Today's Racing Members Club lays are:

17.00 Bath 5 Dixieland Boy

17.35 Tram 5 Lucys Mate

They had two winners yesterday, which sets things back a little, but overall are still well in front. I'll present the week's picture later today or tomorrow, with a short review.

Enjoy your Sunday. I'm off for a roast in the pub, along with a couple of Guinnesses and a big TV to watch footy. (Incidentally, Fulham were inept yesterday and let my double down. I did however have a decent poke at Pompey and ended up nicely up on the day).

Matt

Football And Facebook

After last week's slightly disappointing start to the footy wagering season, I find myself looking to claw back a four point loss.

Today, I'll take a chance on Fulham beating Middlesbrough. I like the industry in Lawrie Sanchez's team, and Craven Cottage is a tough compact little stadium that suits the home side's approach. Boro are perennial underachievers and shocking on the road, so at 2.05 with Expekt.com, they make it into my Saturday double.

The second part of the double is made up by Shrewsbury at home to Bradford. Although these teams were a division apart last season, don't let that fool you. Bradford were terrible and shedded most of their staff roster in the close season.

By contrast, Shrewsbury could have leapfrogged their Yorkshire opponents, but ran into the Bristol Rovers juggernaut at Wembley in the playoff final. Losing in the playoffs can have an adverse impact on some teams, but not so with Shrews, who kicked off with a 4-0 tonking of Lincoln away.

I think I'm right in saying that today is their first home league game in their new stadium, so they'll be keen to impress. 2.2 with Expekt.com is too good to pass up.

The double comes in at just about 7/2 (4.51 to be precise), and expekt.com are best price on the double. I'll have two points to win seven.

Indeed, don't be surprised by this. As I've mentioned previously, they are a go getting European firm and are targeting the UK betting market with best price on a majority of football matches. If you like a wager on the football, you really should have an account with these guys. Click the link to the left of this post to register - they're even chucking in £25 free bet for new signups, so you can get 'double bubble' on your first wager!

The other thing I wanted to mention was Facebook. For those of you who haven't heard of it, its a 'social networking' site. "What's a social networking site?", I hear you ask. Well... to be honest, I'm not really sure what the point of it is, but I put up a profile and a few days later I can now see what a load of my mates are doing, and their mates.

(One of my buddies, Jason, is actually the picture editor for Maxim magazine, so there's some fun shots on his profile!)

If you've got facebook, you can find me by searching for Matt Bisogno. Add me as a friend: I need more online pals!

Check it out here: http://www.facebook.com/

Todays Lay Selections for the Racing Members Club are as follows:

16.35 Bang 6 Englishtown

17.00 Newb 5 Pippa Greene

20.15 Tram 7 Santas Son

Matt

Another Saturday, Another Insoluble Handicap To Have A Crack At!

Ah, Saturday, dear reader, and at last a few moments to surface for air.

Firstly, apologies for the brevity of most of my posts this past week. As you may have gathered, I've been a busy bunny and, to make matters worse, my laptop had a 'moment' yesterday which caused great consternation in this part of Hackney!

All seems to have reverted to normal now, and I am reminded of the need to back up my data, through bitter experience...

The reason for my busyness is that I have been gleefully immersed in a stats and data fest, as a result of my research for TrainerTrackStats. The trends seem to be stronger than ever and I'm excited about some of the new boys appearing for the first time, David Pipe being the key one.

More on this over the next fortnight, but suffice it to say, I'm already looking forward to the jumps season getting started 'for real' in September.

Today's racing looks competitive, and no more so than Ripon's insoluble Great St Wilfred Handicap, a classic cavalry charge over three quarters of a mile.

Although there are 23 runners, the stats point strongly to a high draw bias, with eight of the last ten winners drawn within eight boxes of the top draw. The other two winners were drawn 2 and 4, both on good to firm. It seems that when the ground is genuinely fast both rails are favoured.

Today, with the going described as good, I expect to be able to discount any horse exiting a gate numbered 16 or lower.

This is a race for decent priced winners, with eight of the last ten winners figuring at double digit odds, though no winner was greater than 20/1.

Four year olds have a fine record, and no fewer than six of the last ten winners were from this age group.

On this basis, the unexposed course and distance winner Obe Brave will carry my shekels today. He has some decent form in the book, goes well fresh and has the stats in his favour. Available at 20/1 (22 on betfair, interestingly he is comfortably the second best backed horse in the race as I write with £22,000 matched out of a total of £148,000).

Over at Newbury, the Hungerford Stakes, a Group 2 over a furlong shy of a mile, looks a belter of a race.

Again, there are some pretty strong trends, as follows:

4 or 5yo winner: 8/10
13/2 or shorter: 9/10
9 stone or less: 8/10
Colts/ geldings: 9/10
Gosden: 3/10

I reluctantly discount the fillies in the race (Wake Up Maggie and Silver Touch), because the boys tend to hold sway at the highest level in Group races. (Over the last five seasons in all sex Group races, fillies shorter than 15/2 have won 12.5% of the time compared with colts at 15/2 or shorter winning 22%).

Focusing on 4 or 5 year old colts whose odds are around 7/1 or shorter, gives us Red Evie and Stronghold. Although the former is unbeaten at this track, this is clearly a race John Gosden loves to win (three winners and a third from just five runners in the past decade), and his Stronghold will do for me.

Finally, the increasingly impressive Racing Members Club continues its rich vein of form with both of its lays yesterday well and truly stuffed. That's now 14 from 15 beaten, which is excellent.

I'll post the selections today and tomorrow, before posting a review of the service.

Sign up here: http://tinyurl.com/2ul5j9

Cheers
Matt

Friday Fun: Its Magic!

I think these guys are called Barry and Stuart. They're two very funny and clever Scottish guys...

Enjoy.




Matt

Friday's Racing Members Club Selections

Just a quick post today, dear reader, as my computer has gone haywire. Do Not Buy Windows Vista!!!

After getting all five beaten yesterday, making it 12 out of 13 beaten, Racing Members Club has two lays today:

17.10 Tram 2 Lyical Assassin

20.10 Tram 5 Bennys Quest


You can sign up at http://tinyurl.com/2ul5j9

Also, TrainerFlatStats continues in great form, with the sole runner yesterday obliging at a juicy 6/1.

Laying System fared less well, with two losers (2/1 and 10/3) but also two decent priced winners (7/2 and 5/1). I felt it looked trappy yesterday, and so it proved.

Back later with the usual Friday fun, to help you ease into the weekend.

Matt

Five Beaten Out Of Five Today, Making 12 Out Of 13

Just a quick line to say I'm very impressed with Racing Members Club so far.

They managed to get all five of their selections beaten today, so hats off!

You can join up here: http://tinyurl.com/2ul5j9

Matt

Good Days And Bad Days, Plus Lay365 Review

An excellent day yesterday, dear readers, for followers of TrainerFlatStats and Laying System, and something of a 'plug-y' self-congratulatory post today as a result.

TFS had one runner, Melalchrist, who won at 11/4. That's three winners and a second from the last five selections, including a 9/1 payoff (the other horse finished fourth at 8/1).

http://www.trainerflatstats.com

For Laying System, there were four losers yesterday from four runners. The odds were 5/2, 5/2, 9/4 and 2/1.

Although the qualifying races look a good bit trappier today, I'm hopeful that our good run will continue.

You can still take a free trial of Laying System, although you'll only get a week now rather than the previous fortnight. Still, it's something for nothing and will enable you to paper trade with no risk.

The url is http://www.Laying-System.com

so why not try it out?

Talking of paper trading, I cannot emphasise enough the importance of a period testing things out before you part with any folding. This is why I'm more than happy to demonstrate Laying System (for good or bad, and of course we have bad runs) free before a bean is spent.

It really p155es me off when people sign up for a free trial for a product of mine, and cancel after one or two days, moaning that they've lost money. (You know who you are...)

DO NOT BET WHEN YOU ARE ENJOYING A FREE TRIAL!!!

It is a completely obligation-free opportunity to test drive something without expense. Take advantage of that opportunity!

http://www.Laying-System.com

Elsewhere in the laying world, news reaches me of a product that a number of you have enquired about, due to its ads appearing in the google ad boxes on the left hand side.

This particular product is called Lay365. A couple of things stand out about this service immediately:

1) The contact email address is a hotmail address. Would you trust a service that doesn't even have its own domain emails? (Maybe, but I sure wouldn't!)

2) There is no free trial

3) There is no money back guarantee.

Now points 2 and 3 are interchangeable. That is, if there's no free trial, that's ok as long as I can paper trade and - if I'm losing money - get a refund. Equally, if I've been able to trial something to my satisfaction, I should then be prepared to part with my cash without a guarantee.

In the case of this site, there is no online payment option. Rather, to sign up you need to set up a standing order.

Whilst this is not standard, there's nothing especially wrong with it: you have control over the Standing Order and can cancel any time. But I'd still expect to see an online payment option (like PayPal or Clickbank or Nochex, etc).

Be all that as it may, how do the selections stack up?

Well, from June 27th to now, one disappointed reader writes to tell me:

"After about 3 losers he gave a 7-1 winner, then a couple of

bets later he gave another good odds winner. Then I was over £300 down

but going on his past results I thought I'd have a good chance of recuperating

the loss - very nearly did.

I stuck it out 'til July 27th and was almost at break-even so I decided to continue.

A BAD decision. His bets that win are always at much higher odds than

he claims and after writing two very straight emails to him, he didn't reply

I have asked twice to a refund but they say that they don't give refunds.

My £600 starting bank using only his tips at 5% of the bank (£30) I am

now about £350 down and if you include the 2 subs of £30 each I'm

well over £400 out of pocket.

You can NEVER get the advertised odds

I was one point short of break-even near the end of July when he gave

2 winners from 3 bets (maybe 4) This knocked me further back then he

gave another fair priced winner so I've had to stop or I'll be in the workhouse.

He gave a loser on August 1st but since then hasn't dared to put his results up

A good piece of advice to anyone trying a service is to ask if there's a money

back guarantee if not satisfied."

Indeed, since the start of August, things have taken a turn for the worse, with the following results:

Won 7-2,
L,
no bet,
Won 11-4,
no bet,
Won 9-4,
L,
L,
Won 2-1
no bet
no bet
L
Won 4-1 Five winners four losers with one day missing.

Lay365 gets a big thumbs down from me, based on this evidence, and - as my correspondent correctly points out - the owner of the site has stopped putting up the results now.

Avoid this one.

If you want to try a laying system, then try mine. I can't promise you'll have amazing results instantly, but I can tell you that:

- we're nicely in front since inception
- there's no unrealistic odds listed (all prices quoted are SP + 16%; 5% commission deducted on winning trades)
- you can try it without any risk to you for a week (paper trade!!!!)
- if you want to discuss anything, you know you'll get a response. Anyone who's ever emailed me has received a personal reply, even when they've been, erm, a little direct... ;) [I don't mind directness, I am quite prone to it myself!]

http://www.Laying-System.com

Finally, here are today's Racing Members Club selections:

15.05 Salis 6 Shavoulin

16.15 Salis 5 Olympian Odyssey

16.50 Salis 2 Aphorism

17.10 Tram 9 The Spoonplayer

17.30 Folk 9 Red Raptor

They are currently showing seven losers and one winner (3.8) since the service went public on Sunday.

You can find out more at http://tinyurl.com/2ul5j9

Cheers,
Matt

Dribbling With Excitement...

Hello again, dear reader, from a soggy mouthed scribe today. Firstly, apologies for lack of content yesterday. An alternative business obligation meant I had to be in the West Country, from whence I've only just returned.

Normal service now resumed, and the reason for my salivating is that the postman has brought me a new CD. Not just any old CD though. Oh no, this one is the CD-Rom with last season's National Hunt racing data on it (as well as all the previous season's back to 1991!)

For the next few weeks then, I shall be researching for TrainerTrackStats (the jumps guide counterpart of TrainerFlatStats), and very excited I am too.

Lessons have been learned from last season, where overall a modest profit was made to level stakes, using betfair. There will be some differences in the approach this season, but more on this in due course.

Elsewhere, and many of you have already got hold of your subscription to Racing Members Club, a lay tipster service.

Tracking the results since Sunday, when the service was officially launched, we see the following:

12/8
15:10 Redcar - Robbie Scott LOST

13/8
14.30 Wolverhampton - Musical Charm 6.8 LOST
14.45 Stratford - Salesin 5.1 LOST
15.45 Stratford - Lusaka De Pembo 3.8 WON
19:55 Thirsk - Next Flight 7.2 LOST

14/8
14.15 Newton Abbot Knightsbridge Hill 4.5 LOST
15.15 Newt Abbot Once A Brownie 7.4 LOST
19.30 Musselburgh Radiator Rooney 7.8 LOST

There are no selections today. However, seven losers and one winner is a promising start indeed.

You can read more at:

http://tinyurl.com/2ul5j9

Over at Sandown tonight, I reckon Redolent is plenty short enough on what he achieved on debut and, despite the likelihood of an improved show tonight, there are plenty in here who could be useful. I'll be laying at around 6/4.

Good luck!
Matt

Racing Members Club Results

Thanks to those readers (Peter, Eddie, John, Mick and Keith) who agreed to send me the results from Racing Members Club. I won't need any more offers, so thanks again.

I'll post the results here as I get them.

Just to say that three losers yesterday were not quite enough to mitigate the winner at around 3.8.

If you want to sign up for Racing Members Club, you can do so here:

http://tinyurl.com/2ul5j9

Remember that even though this is a monthly subscription, you can still take a refund if you're not satisfied.

I'll (re-)publish the details of how you do that at the end of the week.

Short post today as I need to be in Bristol and have a train to catch.

Happy Tuesday.
Matt

Has Anyone Signed Up For Racing Members Club?

Just a quick line to see if any member has signed up for Racing Members Club, and would be prepared to share either the selections in advance or the results after the event? I'd want to track them for a week or so.

If you're happy to do this, please send me an email at: matt@nag-nag-nag.co.uk

Over the next couple of weeks, I may have limited opportunities to post daily, which is why I'd be grateful if someone could share these details.

Thanks
Matt

Be Careful What You Wish For!

Another cautionary tale, dear reader, to begin the working week.

Having put up Finsbury as a horse to be interested in yesterday in the seller at Leicester, the horse duly obliged at a very fair 3/1 (he was clear on official ratings).

The trouble with sellers though, is that the winner gets auctioned. Obvious I know, but many trainers enter their horses hoping to boost the confidence but not wanting to lose the animal.

My experience of this was when our own Love's Design won a seller at Lingfield back in 2001. He dotted up by five lengths, and our obvious joy soon turned to anguish as Andrew Reid (the owner trainer who had a good few all weather horses at that time) decided to bid for the horse.

We ended up having to go to 7,000 guineas to get him back. "But he was your horse", you might be thinking. Well, yes, so we obviously didn't pay the money to ourselves. But, by the time we'd paid the VAT (about a grand) and the buyers' premium (another 700 notes), we'd done the prize money back!

No matter, for the Lover returned to Exning where Julia's stables were at that time, and he went on to win another six races for us in a distinguished and - for me - unforgettable career.

Julia was less fortunate with Finsbury. Coming only a couple of days after Spirit of Sharjah was 'spirited' away to Peter Chapple-Hyam's by his ambitious (and extremely disloyal) owner, Finsbury was reluctantly let go for 9,500 guineas.

His new trainer will be Milton Bradley, a man who has consistently improved the nags of others. So it will be with much interest that I track Finsbury's future progress.

Julia may find something to cheer about today though, as she looks to have found a good opportunity for another stable standing dish, Three Ships. He's won a handful of races, including three for today's regular pilot, Matt Smith.

He will enjoy the ground, and ran ok when warming up in a flat spin last month. He should be placed at least.

Elsewhere, and its Monday fare again, so there'll be no transactions from my account after last week's carnage, especially not as today is the 13th!

That said, if you want some pointers, look for high numbers over 5f and 6f at Windsor tonight.

Pixie's Blue has the best of the draw, in 16, and her form at 6f gives her a very good chance. Jimmy Fortune is a great jock for getting the best out of a horse (read beating the living daylights out of his nag), and Gosden places his horses better than most.

Aside from that, I shall be watching Peterborough beat Southampton tonight, and thinking seriously about getting stuck into the Posh to win League Two. If I decide to punt them, you can be assured I'll wait until tomorrow. Remember, this scribe has vowed to never bet on a Monday again.... at least not on horses.

Matt

Damp Squib

A frustrating start to the footy season, dear reader, when Spurs - my adopted team for the season - and Sunderland, did the decent thing and played out what will surely be the most insipid hour and a half of football of the season as the hors d'oevre before the main course of Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal today.

I was interested to note that firstly, Jol decided to play Keane from the start (as suspected by my Spurs chums), then withdraw Berbatov later in the game, and actually use all four of his strikers for some part of the match.

Spurs were atrocious and this was surely a reality check for any North London fan with aspirations of a top four finish. In fairness, they were too bad to be true, lacking width, lacking ideas, and most worryingly, lacking any kind of cohesion or understanding.

After the game, Jol blamed the players, which surprised me. He has rarely deflected the responsibility to his boys, and this appears to mark an elevation in his own expectations. He has much work to do before the next game against Everton on Tuesday.

Elsewhere, and its been interesting to see some of the debutantes make their marks, notably at Manchester City and Liverpool. City cantered home away at West Ham, and Eriksson was apparently even warned for his animated posturing on the touchline. Where was that when he was England manager?!

Goals from Geovanni and Bianchi suggest that the new boys are half decent, though of course its too early to tell.

At Liverpool, Torres showed flashes of what he's capable of, but the boy who caught my eye was Babel. Brought on for a fifteen minute cameo at the end, he looked strong, direct and very dangerous. He may find himself sneaking into my Fantasy League team at some point soon...

Away from the Premier League, and my teams started promisingly. Alas for me, my dirty double (Everton and Sheffield United) was undone by some 'kamikaze defending' at Bramall Lane.

Ho hum, we'll be back next week.

On the racing front, there has been an international fiesta of equine action this weekend, with Arlington hosting the Arlington Million, Secretariat and Beverley D Stakes last night. A Canadian horse, Jambalaya, won the Million and an ex-French horse, Shamdinan, won the Secretariat.

Why am I telling you this? To illustrate the fact that the US turf horses are rubbish, and that there will be exciting betting opportunities later in the year when the Breeders Cup fields are better understood. The US horses will be overbet over there, and they will lose more races than they win from many more runners.

Today, Henrythenavigator puts his unbeaten record and tall reputation on the line in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh, as he bids for a third win, and first in Group 1 company. He is the current favourite for next year's 2000 Guineas but I wouldn't be worrying too much about that at this stage.

Over in France, the mighty Manduro tries to do what he failed to do in three attempts last season, and win over a mile. His trainer believes there were excuses last season, but I wouldn't be rushing to wager the horse today. Rather, I'm interested in him for the Arc, and preying that he will also go Stateside for the Breeders Cup Turf, where he'd be a great investment.

Over at Leicester, in the seller, Julia runs Finsbury. He's been going ok in handicaps and is rated a good bit better than most of these. She did the same thing with Love's Design, when he was racing for me and my friends. The Lover had lost his confidence, but when dropped to this level, he won by five lengths, and then went on to win three of his next four starts. I'll be having a small interest.

Enjoy your Sunday.
Matt

Start The Season With A Winner!

A quick Saturday post, dear reader, to tell you that I'm frothing at the mouth like a Surrey cow in anticipation of the impending footballfest that kicks off at 12.45 today.

There's still time to get your team into the fantasy league. Indeed, even if you miss the start, you can enter a team after this weekend but of course you'll be playing catch up.

Here's the url: http://fantasy.premierleague.com/

League entry code is 533724-97750

You can make as many changes to your squad prior to tomorrow's kick off as you like, though by now you should have a pretty good idea of who you're going to play.

It's usually wise to leave the first footy acc'er for a few weeks when form has settled down a bit. But, that's no fun. So let's get stuck into a nice 13/8 double with BetFred, as follows:

Everton to beat Wigan at 8/11
Sheffield United to beat Colchester at 4/7

4 points to win 6.5 points.

I'll be posting my footy tips on here all season, and keeping a running check.

Best of luck!
Matt

Footballing Friday Fun: Have You Ever Played Football Manager?

Hello again, dear reader. You may or may not be delighted to see that Friday Fun has returned from its week's vacation (I was at Glorious Goodwood last Friday, getting gloriously lubricated).

To coincide with the start of the footy season, and the fact that I've been playing the most compulsive addictive frustrating game ever made, Football Manager (also known as Championship Manager), I've raided the youtube archives for a video classic.

You may have seen it before, but its well worth another watch. If you don't like subtitles with thinly veiled expletives, I suggest you click on one of the google ads now ;)



Bon Weekend, and get your fantasy league team in - see previous post for details.
Matt

'Twas The Night Before Christmas

OK, so it's not quite Christmas, dear reader, but after a summer 'senza calcio', its great to have the diving, moaning, overpaid pipsqueaks back chasing a pigskin (and each other) in the interminable pursuit of 'sticking it in the tin', as I like to say.

Yes, its just 24 hours until Sunderland and Spurs kick the first ball in anger of the new football season, and millions of wives can expect to see less of millions of husbands (and, potentially, more of other people's husbands!) for the next nine months or so.

I've had a £2 bet with my non-betting friend that Darren Bent will start tomorrow. He's a Spurs fan (my mate, not Bent) and he reckons Jol loves Keane and will start him for sure. Given that Berbatov is a shoo in to start, and that the Dutch coach will not play three strikers in an away game, I may have done my dough.

But I see Bent making himself undroppable sooner rather than later, and he is my man for the season.

If you've been deliberating your team all week for the Fantasy Football, now's the time to get it entered. Procrastination is the thief of time, as they say, and most of us can ill afford temporal burglars (whatever that means!), so enter your team now.

A quick reminder of the prizes:

The winner of Nag3 FFL will receive a copy of 'Against The Crowd' by Alan Potts, a copy of 'Betting For A Living' by Nick Mordin, a copy of TrainerFlatStats 2008, a copy of TrainerTrackStats (jumps version) 2008/9, and a year's subscription to Laying System. That's a total value of over £400!

The runner up will receive copies of TFS 2008 and TTS 2008/9 (value £76).

And each monthly prize winner will receive a month's free subscription to Laying System, value £27. (Note that the August and September prize will be combined for the two months, as will the April / May prize. To be clear, that's no monthly prize for August or April. Instead, points gained in those months will be added to the following month's points to make for a 'manager of the month').

As well as all that, you'll receive the undoubted kudos and "can't put a price on that" value of being mentioned in the blog! ;o)

In total, that's over £700's worth of gear up for grabs, just for sticking a team in. Oh, and Premier League also put up some cash prizes as well, should you do so well in our league that you're also challenging for overall honours!

It's all free so get your team entered at:

http://fantasy.premierleague.com/

League entry code is 533724-97750

You can make as many changes to your squad prior to tomorrow's kick off as you like, though by now you should have a pretty good idea of who you're going to play.

Still on footy, and I promised a preview of the Championship today but, to be honest, I have a terrible history in that division. For the record, I fancy Sheffield United and Watford to bounce back up. I'm against Charlton (too many aged players) and Wolves (failed too many times before).

Horses. Let's talk about horses.

After being hit with 9/1 and now a 12/1 qualifier on the laying system, both of whom went on to win, I've reviewed the results data again. Ultimately, even though its been a shocker of a week on that front, overall the information shows that laying at these prices has been profitable.

However, most people (myself very much included) don't like to lay at big prices, for obvious reasons. To avoid nightmare liabilities, I will still publish all qualifiers in the subscription emails, but will counsel against laying at bigger than 6/1.

Indeed, on the results sheet, I also show the record if you'd only laid at 3/1 or shorter. Not surprisingly, this throws up more winners, but overall is slightly more profitable.

You can get the selections free for a fortnight, and paper trade with them, by clicking here.

You can view the results, for 3/1 or shorter and 6/1 or shorter here.

Not much to excite me from a punting perspective today (my mind is on football), but I hope that Snoqualmie Boy can get the win his consistency deserves tonight at Newmarket. He's short to do so (a shade of odds on), but has the form in the book, and David Elsworth is the quiet king of Newmarket.

Prepare yourselves for nine months of football frenzy! Good luck to your team and remember, whoever they are, they're probably better than Bournemouth!

Matt

"I'm Worth A Million In Prizes"

Just two days to go until the start of the football season south of the border, dear reader, and excitement in the Bisogno household is reaching near fever pitch!

With most of my wagers now in situ, I am looking forward to cheering home my teams on the first Saturday of many in the 2007/8 season.

You'll know by now that I'm expecting big things from Darren Bent, and have backed him accordingly with both Skybet (top British scorer, 13/2), and expekt.com (top League scorer outright, 24/1).

I am also rowing in with him to be top Spurs scorer at 5/2 with Hills, and doubling that up with Benni McCarthy to be top Blackburn scorer at a very generous 7/4 (same firm obviously). This cheeky little double comes in at 8.625/1 and I rate that a cracking bet, so get down to Hills and have some!

(With so many eggs in the Bent'y basket, an early season leg break will not be what the doctor ordered!)

I've also backed Luton (16/1, Skybet, Hills, Sporting Odds) and Watford (9/1, general) each way.

I'm not as confident on any side as I was about Hartlepool last year (hedged out for a nice few grand) but, nevertheless, I expect to draw on at least the place part of these wagers.

For the divisions, I'll be doing the following perm with Sporting Odds:

Premier Man Utd (11/8)
Championship Watford (9/1), Sheffield United (9/1) (preview to follow)
League One Nottingham Forest (4/1), Luton (16/1)
League Two Peterborough (7/2), Darlington (14/1)

8 x £5 dream ticket accumulators, to return between £2671 and £30,281. Of course, its unlikely, but you've got to be in it to win it!

Talking of being in it to win it, as promised, "let's take a look at what you would have won", as Jim Bowen might have said in his Bullseye pomp, before two podgy darters heaved a speedboat onto the stage...

No speedboats up for grabs in the Fantasy Football alas (not sure what you'd do with one if you lived in London or Derby anyway..!), but plenty of punting prizes...

The winner of Nag3 FFL will receive a copy of 'Against The Crowd' by Alan Potts, a copy of 'Betting For A Living' by Nick Mordin, a copy of TrainerFlatStats 2008, a copy of TrainerTrackStats (jumps version) 2008/9, and a year's subscription to Laying System. That's a total value of over £400!

The runner up will receive copies of TFS 2008 and TTS 2008/9 (value £76).

And each monthly prize winner will receive a month's free subscription to Laying System, value £27. (Note that the August and September prize will be combined for the two months, as will the April / May prize. To be clear, that's no monthly prize for August or April. Instead, points gained in those months will be added to the following month's points to make for a 'manager of the month').

As well as all that, you'll receive the undoubted kudos and "can't put a price on that" value of being mentioned in the blog! ;o)

In total, that's over £700's worth of gear up for grabs, just for sticking a team in. Oh, and Premier League also put up some cash prizes as well, should you do so well in our league that you're also challenging for overall honours!

It's all free so get your team entered at:

http://fantasy.premierleague.com/

League entry code is 533724-97750

Pip pip!
Matt

Top Scorer Preview, League One Preview and Paul's Winning Racing Tips

As promised, dear reader, here are my thoughts on a couple more of the major ante post football markets for this season. At the bottom of this post, you'll also find Winning Racing Tips' e/w selections for today.

Let's start with the Premier League Golden Boot market.

My tip for the top of the scoring charts is Tottenham's big summer signing from relegated Charlton, Darren Bent. This boy scored 13 goals last season playing in a woeful side that was relegated. He also scored 18 the year before in the same Charlton side (though it performed better as a team, it had nowhere near the class that Spurs currently boast).

With the service available to him at Spurs, I am expecting him to get closer to 20 goals, perhaps even beyond it.

Last season, Drogba won the race with 20, and he is injured for the start of the season, and away on African Nations Cup duty in January. He will likely miss eight to ten games (about a quarter of the total matches), so I think he is a terrible bet at a best priced 6/1.

So, if we take the favourite out of play, who are the contenders:

Wayne Rooney (14 goals last season, 12/1, expekt.com) is bound to be injured and suspended for some of the season, and isn't really the type of out and out striker who wins this prize. Man United will score a hatful this season, as they do pretty much every year, but they will also share them around.

Not for me Roonaldo.

Cristiano Ronaldo (17 goals, 16/1, expekt.com) is a joy to watch. Despite the vitriol aimed at him last season after the World Cup affair, he was far and away the best player in the league last year.

Seventeen goals from midfield is an awesome return, and I reckon he'll outscore Rooney again this year, while still coming up short in the overall totals race.

Benni McCarthy (18 goals, 21/1, expekt.com) is a player I admire too. He plays in a much under-rated team at Blackburn, and I'm very impressed that they've signed Roque Santa Cruz from Bayern Munchen for what could turn out to be a bargain price.

The problem for Benni this season is that, even with the majestic service he'll get from MGP (Morten Gamst Pedersen, if you will), he is likely to have to share the goals with Roque and others.

RVP (Robin van Persie, 11 goals, 14/1, Bet365, Stan James, Ladbrokes) looks in awesome shape in pre-season, and is an exceptional talent. For me, Arsenal are the most creative side in the League, and they just might have solved their striking problems with Da Silva. Expect RVP to weigh in with double digit strikes, but fall short of the places.

Eduardo Da Silva (25/1 Boyle, Paddy Power, Sporting Odds, Ladbrokes) could be a great signing for Arsenal. I reckon he's overpriced, as he is surely the only player the Gunners have who can sit on the shoulder of the last man, and put them away regularly. Whether Monsieur Wenger agrees with me remains to be seen. At the price, I'd be tempted to have a little each way. He may well be in the top four scorers, and could come out on top.

Forget Shevchenko (just 9/1 in a place, 18/1 with Coral) as he won't get too many games, even with Drogba injured or absent.

Forget Fernando Torres (16/1 generally), a great player, but one who spends too much time on his backside moaning at referees, and who will be rotated in a side that doesn't score too many goals.

I love Dimi Berbatov, who was the best newcomer last season by a distance. His nonchalance and casual demeanour masks an exceptional talent. However, he likes to sit just off the striker position, and I think will score less goals this season than last year's dirty dozen.

I expect Jol to make B&B (that's Berbi and Bent) his first choice partnership, and the latter's five goals in pre-season shows that the pairing is ripe.

Berbi clearly likes playing with Bent, as he offers much more mobility and all round game than Defoe (who is probably a more natural finisher), and he offers more directness than the infuriating Robbie Keane (who has a touch of class, but too often finds little off the bridle, in racing parlance).


At 25/1 with Expekt.com, I think he's the pick of the prices. I've backed him already and, if Jol starts the season with him (not insignificant 'if', as my Spurs mates tell me that Jol loves Keano), then I can see Bent being undroppable, and scoring a load of goals in an exciting team to watch. (They've got bags of pace and width, maybe still a question mark about the holding midfield position though).

A couple of important points about the odds quoted with expekt.com: although you may never have heard of them, they are a major player in Europe and are aggressively seeking signups in UK.

They bet win only on the top scorer market, which means there's no place payout. Personally, on the top scorer charts, I think this is no bad thing, as an injury, suspension or dubious management decision could see a player have a long spell on the sidelines. In that instance, you'd do double your money.

If you've not got an account, but fancy taking the best price on one of the above, the good news is that expekt will match your first wager up to £25. That means, place a £25 bet and you'll get £25 credited to your account.

Place a £10 bet and get £10 credited to your account.

You can sign up HERE if you're tempted by those odds.


It's Bent for me, followed by Da Silva.

League One is often a touch section to find the winner in. Last season, 50/1 shots Scunthorpe cruised home, thanks to a great unit and the goals of Billy Sharp (now at Sheffield United).

This season, Nottingham Forest are clear market leaders. They were a little disappointing last season but have bolstered their already impressive squad with the key signing of Neil Lennon, and other notable purchases, Matt Lockwood and Aaron Davies.

Lennon is a no nonsense ball winner with a touch of class, especially at this level, and he could make the difference for them this year. Even at a best priced 4/1 (Sporting Odds), I reckon they must go close and would want them in my portfolio.

Beyond them, I wouldn't want Leeds even without the 15 point deduction. With it, they are no hopers to me, and they will have to get somewhere between 60 and 65 points just avoid relegation to League Two. How are the mighty fallen. (As a Bournemouth fan, you'll forgive me for scoffing at the decline of a once great club with once great fans. Apologies to any genuine Whites supporters reading this).

Swansea (11/1 Skybet) have been knocking on the door in recent seasons, but they've had too many chances already for me. Lee Trundle has Premier League trickery but a distinctly Sunday League work ethic. He's a joy to watch in highlight format though!

Doncaster, with former Cherries man Sean O'Driscoll at the helm, are top priced 11/1 (again with Sporting Odds), and have added ex-Cherries hitman, Jamie Hayter. Hayter once scored four away to Bury, and also scored the fastest ever hat-trick in Football League history against Wrexham (2mins and 20 seconds!).

He is a decent scorer but not a legendary predator by any means. In fact, he only scored ten for the Cherries last year, and was often deployed in a central midfield role.

Donny are a good workmanlike side with an honest and professional manager (though don't look at him for a soundbite, unless you're a big fan of footballing cliche's), but I doubt they're good enough to win this league.

Luton could be entertained at 16/1 (Skybet, Hills). Although relegated from the Championship last year, they have retained a lot of decent players, and they've brought in some impressive and proven names. Paul Peschisolido, Chris Perry, Darren Currie and Paul Furlong may all be closer to getting a bus pass than most players, but they've all been there, seen it and done it, and will bring bags of experience to a squad with some promising youth already on the books.

Further down the card, I like the look of Hartlepool and Bristol Rovers to 'double up' in the promotion stakes. It's been done by a number of teams recently, with Southend and Brighton winning the division after being promoted from League Two the previous year, and Hull and Rotherham both finishing 2nd after promotion. Four teams in the top two in the last six seasons.

So back Hartlepool (11/1 BlueSq, Coral) and Bristol Rovers (14/1 Bet365, Stan James) for promotion. Remember, if either side finishes in the top six and is not automatically promoted, you will have 11's or 14's about a team in the four horse race that is the playoffs. Given the track record of teams coming up, these are the best value bets in the section for me.

And my original (not!) selection to win League One is Nottingham Forest. Sorry.

Onto the horses, and the Winning Racing Tips selections today are opposing Naomh Gheileis with
3.10 Pontefract 0.6pt e/w Effingham (5/1 Sportingodds/StanJames)
3.10 Pontefract 0.4pt e/w Nickel Silver (8/1 Bet365/BetDirect)

Finally, further reminders in case you needed them (!) that you should be entering your Fantasy League team in at http://www.premierleague.com/

Use the signup button to the right of the Budweiser symbol. To join the Nag3 League, where there are prizes to be won (exact nature of these to be revealed over the coming days), enter the following code: 533724-97750

Also, you can still sign up for a 14 day trial of Laying System, by clicking here.

TTFN
Matt

Fickle...

Fickle, dear reader, that's the only way to describe it.

I am of course talking about the mindset of racehorse owners who decide to move their horses to another yard.

In this case, I refer specifically to Alan Dee who, with only the second horse he has owned outright, has decided that Julia Feilden is not good enough to train Spirit of Sharjah any more.

After all, the same trainer who got his part-owned Dance World to win four races, had only managed to land a touch from 16/1 into 10's on debut for him, and then win a Listed race at Goodwood.

Oh yeah, and she trained the colt to finish third behind Winker Watson in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. Pathetic training feat for a woman with just over 20 horses..

The horse will now be housed at Peter Chapple-Hyam's Boarding School For Extremely Talented Juveniles and, while I rate the trainer the best with 2yo's, I still gall at the fickle nature of the decision to relocate the animal.

Julia is a very fine trainer. Dee's complaint that she has no comparable horses to run Sharjah against is only partially true. Its certainly the case that she has no equally able juveniles, but she has speedy animals such as my own (in part) Rapid City who, whilst on the crocked list again now, had been working with Sharjah recently.

As an older horse, he is bigger and stronger and has been a good galloping partner for the most precocious beast Julia's had the privelege to train to date.

If Dee felt that his horse was going to be so good, why didn't he send it to P C-H in the first place? Answer: because not only did Julia train him to those aforementioned great feats, she also spotted him at the sales and bought him for the relatively paltry sum of £30,000.

So, she has made Dee's dreams come true and he has now shattered hers. I'm afraid I am not a fan of this kind of disloyalty and I almost wish Sharjah misfortune hereafter. Almost, but not quite. Because as much as I dislike disloyalty, I despise wishing ill of others even when their behaviour might justify it.

Other news, and Dundalk is preparing to open its doors as Ireland's first all weather track. Preliminary gallops were held yesterday and there's a plan for four trial races next week. The first fixtures are pencilled in from end September (starting 27th), and they have floodlights fitted for evening action too.

There is a growing trend towards dirt racing in these isles now, and this will lead to better racing on the surface. I'm all in favour of this, as I think that there are so many more consistencies about dirt racing that make it a much more palatable punting proposition.

Allied to this is the fact that, due to the number of US bred's racing here now, many of these are much more suited to the dirt surfaces anyway.

From the picture in the Racing Post, the stand looks impressive and I'll try to get across to Dundalk in the next six months to check it out.

Also on the subject of all weather racing, Great Leighs latest opening date is October 18th, which just happens to be my birthday. Should the track actually make the date this time, I may well be there for a boozy celebration. More nearer the time...

They race at Brighton among other places today, and a couple of interest to me are Princely Ted (3.30) and Caravel (5.00). The former is trained by Rodney Farrant, a decent rider in his day in points, and they backed it like it was expected last time.

Ted finished second that day and is expected to improve for an extra quarter mile. Farrant rode often for Martin Pipe and will doubtless have picked up a few tips about training horses for stamina from there, and this boy could gallop them senseless.

Caravel was also punted last time, when upped to a mile for the first time on his handicap bow for Sir Mark Prescott. The familiar tactic just failed though, and there'll likely be a few money back missions today. The race looks to have limited depth today, and he will be thereabouts.

At Yarmouth tonight, Mickmacmagoole has a good chance. I layed him to my cost in the past, when he won at 15/8 on fast ground. He drowned in the bog at the Curragh last time, and this surface will be much more up his street in a less competitive affair.

The horse comes over from Tipperary (to where, as we all know, its a long way), and Jamie Spencer reacquaints himself as a previous winning rider. 10/3 was available this morning and a bit bigger on the exchanges. I'd expect this to shorten (though I'm no special judge of these things).

Over at Pontefract, I'm going to oppose Divine Spirit for the cakes. He's high in the weights now and has an awful draw (pretty strong low bias over sprint trips, he's got 12 of 13). Although he's on the hat-trick and Rroyston 'the Boyston' Ffrench is riding, I'll take Kings College Boy and Dark Champion each way against him.

In the same race, Ryedane is due a win and, if he lines up after running yesterday, may also go close.

They also race at Newcastle, a track at which I don't remember ever backing a winner in my life, so I'll spare you my thoughts on the contests there today!

Back later with some thoughts on League One footy this season. (Incidentally, the Racing Post football pullout is published with the paper today. If you can get hold of a copy, do it. Apart from headlining Bournemouth for relegation - how very dare they?! - it's a cracking read).

Matt

The Abridged Premier League Betting Preview, Plus Some Hard Core League Two Action

Starting this week's series of footy previews, and I'm going to look at the Premier League and League Two.

Firstly, the winner of the Premier League this season will be Manchester United (best price 2.44 with betfair, 7/5 expekt.com). No ifs, no buts.

Chelsea (2.98 betfair, 15/8 Betdirect) have a horrendous injury list currently, and may drop points early on. Even if they don't, I'm expecting some fireworks in the Stamford Bridge camp when the likes of Ballack and Shevchenko aren't getting regular first team games.

Claudio Pizzaro looks a player to watch: I've always like him and I think his game is well suited to the Premiership but, with Drogba missing the start and away on African Nation’s Cup duty in January / February, I think Chelsea will struggle to score goals this season.

Liverpool (6.8 betfair, 6/1 Betfred) have bought a lot players and have an excellent squad. I still have a few reservations about their goalscoring abilities, but they'll likely be the tightest defence in the league (important if you're considering defenders for your Fantasy League team).

Arsenal (11.5 betfair, 11/1 Bet365) will be fantastic on the eye, but frustrating in front of goal, despite the addition of a predatory striker in Eduardo Da Silva (I reckon this boy get a bagful of goals this year).

But if there's one team who may break into the elite quartet this season, its free-spending Spurs.

I like Martin Jol as a manager, and I think he's mollycoddled the young boys at Spurs very well. This year he's going to expect them to grow into men, and he's getting rid of the troublemakers.

So, exit stage left Mido, Ghaly and - if he can find a buyer – Jermaine Jenas. Enter Darren Bent, super striker.

My tip for the top of the scoring charts is Tottenham's big summer signing from relegated Charlton. This boy scored 13 goals last season playing in a woeful side that was relegated.

With the service available to him at Spurs, I am expecting him to get closer to 20 goals.

He also looks very interesting at 13/2 (already been backed in from 8/1) to be top British and Irish striker with Skybet. Better still, if you use the skybet link on this page to sign up, you’ll get your wager matched up to £20 (if you’re not already a skybet customer).

My full top scorer thoughts will appear later in the week, but suffice it to say, Benty Boy is one of my two selections.

League Two

No such thing as a two, three or even four horse race in basement division, with any number of teams pitching for promotion. I’ve narrowed it down to four, who I think will fight it out come the business end of the season.

First up, unsurprisingly, is Peterborough (4/1 Betfred, Paddy Power). Managed by Sir Alex Ferguson’s son, Darren, and bankrolled by a wealthy Irishman, free spending Posh have a hell of a lot going for them.

It is normally a side with either money, or prudent use of the loans market, that wins this division. Posh have both. You can be sure that if Derby or Wolves or their ilk want to borrow a Manchester United player, they need to be happy to send a boy or two to London Road this season.

But what of their current squad?

In goal, they’ve got the reliable but not special Mark Tyler. He’s a Peterborough institution and needs just five more games to reach his 400^th appearance.

Defended by the likes of Adam Newton and Chris Westwood, Tyler shouldn’t feel too vulnerable but the missed catch of Steve Elliott from Bristol Rovers must smart, and I’d like to see them strengthening the back four.

Scoring goals however will not be a problem. Posh will be the top scoring team in the league this season, it’s just a question of how many they let in.

In Craig Mackail-Smith (CMS), they have what many people believe to be the best striker in the division. He’s a 16/1 shot to be top scorer and will miss the first couple of games, recovering from a pre-season injury. But I think he’s a decent bet to top the scoring charts.

Others who will be chasing double figure goal tallies on the Posh roster include Danny Crow and Aaron MacLean, but CMS should be first choice and should hit a bundle.

The midfield is the best in the division in my opinion, with proven League One players such as Dean Keates (from Walsall), Micah Hyde, and Gavin Strachan supported by exciting talents like Josh Lowe, Charlie Lee and George Boyd.

If it wasn’t for the potentially porous defence I wouldn’t be able to look past Peterborough. But to win consistently, you have to keep the oppo at bay, and I really feel this will be a struggle unless they invest in their defence.

Saying that, if they bring in a couple of decent proven defenders, they’ll be very very tough to beat.

Elsewhere, I like the prospects of Chesterfield, Darlington and – at any price you like – Dagenham.

Chesterfield (14/1 generally) were the best of the relegated teams last season, beating Bradford, Brentford and Rotherham, and I am confident they will do well this season.

The record of teams relegated from League One bouncing back is above average, and the Spireites have retained most of their squad from last year. They’ve bolstered the side with the signings of Jack Lester from Forest and my mate, SuperFletch (that’s Steve Fletcher to you) from Bournemouth. Lester is a class act on his day, and Fletcher – though slow as a boat and with a wider turning circle – will challenge as the best target man in the division. He rarely gets beaten to a header.

Darlington (14/1 generally) are my friend’s tip and he’s very strong on them. He’s backed them accordingly. The have a proven manager in Dave Penney, who worked the oracle out of this section with Doncaster previously, getting that side out of the Conference before winning League Two.

The side has oodles of experience, with the likes of Steve Foster, Andy Oakes and Pawel Abbot added to the squad, and my concern is that they will likely have too many new faces to effectively gel straight away. I expect Darlo to make big strides as the season progresses, but much will depend upon whether they can hit the ground running.

A good bet for Darlo then is to back them for promotion (3/1 widely available), where you will get three automatic spots, plus a run for your money (and an opportunity to trade out) if they finish in the top seven – and therefore make the playoffs. 3/1 about making the playoffs is more than fair…

Finally, my each way shout is Dagenham (33/1 Skybet and others). A fair few teams have come out of the Conference and been pretty competitive in this league, and the Daggers (my local team for three years) strolled home in that division last season.

They don’t have too many household names in the squad (but then, which League Two sides do?!), but in Paul Benson they have a striker who proved himself capable of filling the considerable void left by CMS’ departure to Peterborough.

I reckon that they are decent value for small stakes, and the top priced 9/1 offered by Skybet for promotion looks cracking value. Remember, if they finish in the top seven, you’ve either collected already via the automatic spots, or you’ve got 9/1 in the four horse playoff race, and can easily lay off for a profit or your stakes back.

I’ve put the skybet link on the page for a few reasons, as follows:

1. Its an account you’re less likely to have than say Ladbrokes
2. They go best price on many football wagers, and are clearly striving for market share in that sport
3. You get a free bet when you sign up, up to £20
4. I get something out of it when you sign up too ;-)
   

FFL

While we’re on the subject of footy, don’t forget the Fantasy League competition that I’m running through the official Premier League site. Its free to enter, and will be a lot of fun. If your team does well, you can expect a namecheck or two as the season progresses, and there will be prizes on offer as well.

Get your team registered here:

http://fantasy.premierleague.com/

(Look on the right side for the 'Sign Up' link).

The code for the league is 533724-97750.

See if you can work out who at least one of my strike force is... ;)
Matt

More A Small Uprising Than A Revolution: Merit Nevertheless…

As promised, here are my thoughts on the product that you’ve seen a million emails for in recent days, and that I’ve been trialling on the blog: Racing Systems Revolution.

The grandiose title is in no way out of kilter with this systems production unit’s penchant for hyperbole and, if you can see beyond the implausibly conspiratorial approach to the sales bluster, the product is actually pretty good.

Firstly, let me say what it’s not. It’s not really a backing system and it’s not really a laying system. Rather, it’s a means of getting in and out on a bet before a hoof has struck turf in anger.

Yes, it’s a trading system. Of course, any trading system relies on its selection policy consistently picking horses who shorten or lengthen (depending on whether you are to back first, then lay, or vice versa).

The rules for this system are pretty simple, but as I often say, that in itself is not necessarily a bad thing.

Once you’ve identified potential qualifiers, using info freely available on the Racing Post website, you need to monitor the pre-race odds for signs of market support. This is all explained in simple terms and is pretty straightforward to get your head around.

I must concede to only really ever trading on sports events: that is, if I’ve backed a cyclist in the Tour outright events and his odds have truncated, or if I’ve backed a footy team who have scored the first goal, I will always trade out for a free bet.

That’s just common sense: why risk money for no reason?!

Well, this is the racing alternative, except that here you don’t wait for the race to start. Instead, you’re in and out before the gates open or the tape rises.

There are two ways to play it: you can either lock in a free bet (like my sports examples above) – this relies on the selection winning to get a payout, but there is no loss if the selection doesn’t win. Given that you’ll generally be backing well-supported favourites, it’s fair to expect them to win pretty often.

The alternative is to ‘green up’, an exchange expression for when every possible outcome gives you a payout. In this case, you’ll need to lay back more than you originally staked to get a smaller payout than you would if you took the first option. The kickback of course is that you’re guaranteed a return, regardless of whether the selection wins or loses.

“So this is free money then Matt?!”

Er, not quite, no. As with everything, there are no certainties. If the odds go against you, and the horse drifts in the betting after you’ve backed it, you have to mitigate that risk, by laying for your stake at a bigger price and hoping the horse gets beaten (for instance, if you backed at 2.5 and the horse lengthened to 2.76 at which point you laid it, you would have a liability of a quarter of a point IF the horse won. If it was beaten, you’d get your money back).

So the selection method is key, and if it can consistently find shortening horses in the market, then overall you will have plenty of profitable trades to offset the drifters.

OK, that’s the theory, but how did RSR do in practice?

Alabama Spirit Odds went from 3.25 into 3 (free bet to win 0.25 points, LOST)
Generous Thought 3.6-3.3 (free bet to win 0.3 points, LOST)
Too Posh To Share 2.1-2.34 (liability of 0.24 points, LOST)
Effigy 4.2-3.85 (free bet to win 0.35 points, LOST)
Starlit Sands 4.3-3.85 (free bet to win 0.45 points, LOST)
Samurai Way 4.6-4.7 (liability of 0.1 points, LOST)
Revue Princess 3-2.6 (free bet to win 0.4 points, WON)
Legendary Guest 2.46-2.18 (free bet to win 0.28 points, WON)
Nassau Style 3.3-3.75 (liability of 0.45 points, LOST)
Love That Benny 3.7-3.1 (free bet to win 0.6 points, WON)
Sam's Secret 2.34-2.2 (free bet to win 0.14 points, WON)
Shanahan 2.26-2.06 (free bet to win 0.2 points, LOST)
Pivotal Queen 3-3.1 (liability of 0.1 points, LOST)
Enticing 5.2-5 (free bet for 0.2 points, LOST)
Badalona 4.5-4.1 (free bet for 0.4 points, LOST)
Cave Of The Giant 2.9-2.3 (free bet for 0.6 points, LOST)
Dark Parade 2.6-2.1 (free bet for 0.5 points, LOST)

Total Upside Horses: 13
Total Liability Horses: 4

Total upside = 4.67 points
Total liability = 0.89 points

Remember that on every horse that moved inwards in the betting, you could have guaranteed a profit. Given that over three quarters moved in the right direction, that’s pretty good.

Also, looking at the upside versus liability statements, that strongly favours you from a trading perspective.

The only disappointment was how many of these horses went on to get beaten, suggesting that a lot of punters ‘did it in’ this last week (not just me!).

Interestingly, all four liability horses lost, supporting the perceived correlation between lack of market support and a horse’s chance.

Of course, just as I expect more of the shortening horses to win in the longer term, so I expect some of the liability horses to win as well.

Overall, despite the fact that this comes from a ‘factory’ whose style I don’t really like, I have to recommend this product as it does work.

There is sound logic in the selection process, which means it’s easy to see why these horses would be (over)bet. Herein lies the edge.

As with all products sold via Clickbank, if you don’t like it or its not for you, you can get your money back. (Do this via Clickbank rather than writing to the author, as you'll wait a verrry long time otherwise)

If you want to read more about it, or try a copy, click here. (Remember, although I condone the product, I cannot possibly condone the terribly over the top “the world is out to get you” sales pitch. You might want to go directly to the ‘buy now’ link and spare yourself the sick bucket experience…)

Matt

The Boomtown Rats Had It Right!

"Tell me why I don't like Mondays", squealed Sir Bob Geldof, a few years before he screamed, "Give us your f*cking money!".

But with the latter expression, dear reader, he could have been a bookmaker answering the former question for me.

As of today, slightly after the horse has bolted, I am now closing the stable door at Monday Barn.

I've had it with Mondays from a betting perspective: regular readers will know that I've been wary of them for some time, and now I'm conceding defeat. I've added three new rules to my rules list after a(nother) Black Monday.

1. NEVER BET HORSES ON A MONDAY
2. NEVER BET HORSES ON A MONDAY
3. NEVER BACK OR LAY IN AMATEUR RACES.

There is no question that amateur rider races have had a major impact on the bottom line for Laying System this season, and yesterday's Windsor affair - though brutal in itself - was also a defining moment.

The 9/1 winner was a lay for me, when I don't normally lay at longer than 4/1. I'd reasoned that he couldn't win, being a fully exposed 11 year old in a field of faster younger better ridden horses. Well, long story short, I was wrong, and I paid out one unit for every year old the horse was as a result.

A painful experience, especially on the back of Celtic on Sunday. It's been a tough couple of days.

No matter, for I very rarely go to the odds that Celtic were, and I will now never find myself in the situation I did with Wait For The Will (at this rate, there'll be nothing left in the will!).

I don't know about you, but for me, Monday is now a 'no fly zone'. I will endeavour to fill the space here with some racing related info on the first day of each week, but don't expect a tip.

Enough already...

Back later with some football predictions (Premier League will not be a surprise, and League Two which is a little more interesting I think), and a review of Racing Systems Revolution (just in time for the next product on the Steven Lee Jones conveyor belt to be released: step forward the Racing Members Club, for which you may well have already seen emails).

There's also an update on Paul's Winning Racing Tips, which are getting closer to the bullseye but still struggling to beat the odds on jollies.

Matt

Second Post...

Never any danger of a strike here, dear reader, so today's second post brings you the Winning Racing Tips selection for the day:

Windsor 8.00 Hibiki (10/1 with Bet365 / Betfred / BoyleSports)

Also, a quick reminder that if you want to carry on receiving the Laying System selections (12 losers out of the last 13, the winner being odds on), then click here.

Until next time... Matt

Twelve Out Of Thirteen...

Good morning, dear reader, and welcome back to Nagsville.

After a terrible (terrible!) start when proofing up on here, my Laying System has reverted to type and has delivered a very pleasing 12 losing (and therefore winning) lays from the last thirteen.

You can see the full results for the service since its inception here.

If you'd like to receive these lays on a daily basis, now is the time to sign up for an extra two week trial.

To do this, click here and sign up. It will cost you nothing, and you have a full fortnight to trial before deciding whether you wish to continue receiving the selections.

Something free at the start of the week to mitigate the disaster of it being Monday!

The weekend's action saw the draw throw up something of a surprise with middle numbers being strongly favoured in the Stewards Cup.

Aside from the winner, who quickened well, the two horses to take from the race are definitely Knot In Wood and Balthazaar's Gift.

Knot In Wood used a lot of energy to get across to the middle, and stuck on pretty resolutely to hold third place.

Balthazaar's Gift, carrying top weight, was never really put in the race until too late, and quickened impressively to take fifth, just failing to sneak into the places. He is definitely a Group class sprinter and - in my opinion - was the best horse in the race.

The best horse (or filly as I should more correctly refer) on the day was unquestionably Peeping Fawn. She smashed a multiple Group 1 race-winning field to pieces in a good time on ground that she probably didn't enjoy.

If she goes for the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf race, she will be my bet of the year. And I mean that seriously. She's the best in Europe and pretty much any filly in the race on Saturday could win a BC F&M Turf against the Yanks.

Peeping Fawn in that race is what's known Stateside as a "Five Star Lock"! You heard it here first.

Monday's mundane action is nothing to get too excited about, but later on I'll be trialling RSR for the last day and will present a review of the system tomorrow. I've found it a pretty interesting product, I have to say.

And I'll continue to post Paul's Winning Racing Tips here throughout this week. He's been a bit unlucky since I started proofing them, inasmuch as all the horses he's tried to oppose with each way value alternatives, have gone and won! That's untypical and I'm expecting normal service to be resumed this week.

What it does illustrate however is that even the top man in the tipping charts can have a bad run.

And, as I never tire of saying, after a bad run, expect a good run.

Lastly, just time to mention the Fantasy Football. Having burned myself badly backing Celtic at 1-4 yesterday (what was I thinking?!!!), and then watching the second half of the Community Shield, I am now starting to get excited about the impending season.

I'll be posting my thoughts on the teams to back in the respective divisions this week, and you can get in on the Fantasy League by entering your team here:

http://www.premierleague.com/splash/fantasy/fantasy.html

And the league registration code: 533724-97750

Its free to enter, and fun to play.

Back later with Paul's top tips for today.

Matt

Today's Lays

Quick Sunday post for you, dear reader...

Five out of six again yesterday on the placepot, meaning that I suffered that fate every single day last week. At least the only big pot is the one where I wasn't kicking myself for leaving one of the frame runners out.

Another beaten lay yesterday making it nine from the last ten (the winner being a 10/11 shot).

Today, I'm going to try to get the following rolled over:

Newbury
2.10 Sharmy
3.50 Mont Etoile
4.55 Candy Mountain

Matt

Winning Racing Tips Plus Still Going 'Potty

Quick update with my last chance at the placepot this week, and also Paul's e/w selections:

Each-Way Value:(1 pt each way unless stated otherwise)
3.05 Windsor Vogarth @ 9/1 0.5pt e/w (Totesport)
7.00 Lingfield Princess Lomi @ 8/1 0.5pt e/w (General)

And Matt's (i.e. my!) placepot horses:

2.15 Fongs Gazelle / Fourteenth
2.50 Dubai's Touch / Traffic Guard / Italian Girl / Rahiyah
3.20 Light Shift
3.55 Balthazaar's Gift / Knot In Wood / Viking Spirit
4.30 Belgrave Square / Cool Judgement
5.05 Monaazalah / Dark Tara / Atabaa's Pride / Deal Flipper

192 @ 20p = £38.40. Wish me luck!

Matt

Truly Glorious Goodwood

Hello again, dear reader, and as my hangover dissipates, let me tell you a little about the clearing haze from yesterday.

A truly glorious day greeted me and my five drinking and punting pals (actually two were on the water, but that dilutes the story somewhat!)

Meeting at Victoria Station at 9.15am seemed somewhat of a premature rendez-vous time. However, as it turned out, it was a fine plan. By taking an early train, we arrived early (shortly before midday) at the course, and were able to take our pick of the fantastic facilities in the Gordon Enclosure.

We pitched up for the afternoon around a nice little table adjacent to the parade ring and, more significantly given that there wasn't a paddock judge among the six of us, adjacent to the bar.

It was a heavy drinking day, but a light punting day, mostly. My 576 line placepot (yes, you read that right!) suffered the ultimate ignominy of first race early bath, when my two selections finished fourth and fifth (Perfectperformance and High Top).

In my embarrassed annoyance I passed up a bet in the next race, where my mate Tim had been telling us all "seven out of the last ten winners were drawn in the highest box, and another won from there but was dispualified".

Of course, I'm a high draw evangelist myself at Goodwood, and - obviously - Wake Up Maggie featured in my doomed 'pot.

Well, she won easily, and those boys collected at odds of 14/1 down to 11's. Bugger.

The next race and my bet of the day. Arguably a somewhat curious race to strike your bet of the day: a seemingly fiercely competitive 19 runner handicap. And yet, I'd made it a three horse race between River Tiber, King Of Argos and - my nap - Third Set.

These horses came 1st, 3rd and 4th, and my two score at 3's paid for the beers on a light punting afternoon.

More annoyance was to follow when I decided that I wanted 8's on Strike The Deal, and 'only' 15/2 was available. My feigned smugness at my own tremendous discipline quickly turned to chagrin as the Striker romped away with it, and all my mates laughed at me because they'd backed it. Ba5tards.

By the way, the dead placepot had had three winners to follow the failure in the first, and a fourth winner was to come next, again without my money on it.

My three in the nursery were Golden Penny, Meeriss and Coasting. I backed Golden Penny, who I believe may still be running. The other two finished 1st and 3rd.

In the insoluble penultimate handicap, I took four big priced horses against the field, and Oranmore Castle almost gave me a 110/1 payout for a fiver on the Tote. Ran a cracking race before fading. I had Indian Trail twice (one for the non-runner going on the favourite) in the placepot, meaning I'd have had it for 80p.

To be honest, I couldn't believe it when it only paid £99, as I thought it was a pretty tough 'pot to get. And I was thrilled that my 'nearly won' dividend was so miserly.

Four days running now I've had five out of six.

The final insult on the punting front came in the last, when again I took four against the field (including 3rd, 4th - 20/1 Jarvis' other runner! - and 6th), and failed to include Marozi, the horse whom I'd put up an almightily ballsy 'back' cry when it ran a stinker last time. See blog post on 23rd July, when I said,

"Over at Windsor tonight, where low numbers have the call in soft ground sprints, I really fancy the unexposed Marozi. I think Michael Jarvis is an excellent trainer, and this horse's soft ground second last season looks good enough in the context of this race.

Given that many of the horses he beat that day are now rated higher than his mark of 80, and that he also has a Group 1 entry, he looks a generous price at around 7/4 at betfair. I was expecting this horse to be trading at around even money against pretty exposed opposition.

Maybe I'll have the proverbial albumen on physiognomy (or egg on face, if you will) later, but I reckon this is a standout wager. The slight cautionary temperance is that getting stuck in on a Monday is generally not a good idea, in my experience. Nevertheless, I'll fight my early week reticence on this occasion."

Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

I could and probably should have had five winners yesterday. I had one, which at least was correctly staked, and got p155ed. Not a terrible outcome by any means!

The rest of the day passed in a haze - I took the 1911 train back to London, on a ridiculously circuitous route via Hove and Haywards Heath (are Southern the worst train company in the world?! Why don't they put on Festival Raceday Special trains?)

Got into London around 9, and headed straight into Shoreditch for more drinking. Rolled in rolling drunk at 3 this morning, and I'm feeling remarkably good on it. ( I may still be drunk!)

Yesterday's lays fared ok with a 10/11 winner and two losers, meaning we've now had a much more respectable eight from the last nine turned over.

Today, there is only one, which I'm a little twitchy about: Cosmic Art in the 3.35 at Newmarket.

Paul's each way tips also fared disappointingly yesterday, with all the short ones he tried to oppose winning:

Mr Wiseguy 3rd at 4/1 (-0.2 points)
Silver Mitzva 4th at 15/2 (-1 point)
Papillio 3rd at 7/1 (+0.16 points)
Ridge Dance 6th at 14/1 (-0.4 points)

Total -1.44 on the day.

The Stewards' Cup is the big handicap of the day, and one of the big handicaps of the season. It's quite a strong trends race, and the following are usually important pointers:

Seven of the last ten winners have come from stall 19 or higher.

Nine of the last ten winners also had an official handicap rating of at least 92

Eight carried at least 8-10

Eight finished in the first three last time out.

Alas, all carry 8-10 or more today, and all are rated more than 92, so that doesn't help!

However, high drawn horses placed last time out gives us the following shortlist:

Balthazaar's Gift, Knot In Wood, Viking Spirit.

Conscious that a low drawn horse could blow us out, I'll nevertheless side with this three off the tee. (Its no coincidence they're three of the first four in the betting - only once in the last ten years has a horse won at odds longer than 14/1).

The Nassau Stakes is a belting race with probably the best three middle distance turf fillies in the world lining up.

I hope Light Shift wins, I think Peeping Fawn will win, and it would not surprise me in the slightest of Mandisha wins. A race to savour rather than to bet in.

Best of luck to you today.
Matt

You Heard It Here First...

Good morning, dear reader, and once more I welcome you to Friday, though for the first time in August.

News greets me this morning of the wonderhorse Teofilo finally being retired. Regular readers will know that I shouted from the rooftops to lay this horse for the Guineas (or at least not back him) when news of his injury first filtered through, way back in early April.

Indeed at that time, I suggested he may never race again. It's with a perverse combination of sadness and smug satisfaction that I have been proved right.

Bolger would have known this for some time, but has had to fight the public admiration (to say nothing of the money down for both Guineas and Derby) over the past few months.

The timing of the announcement, bang in the middle of a major racing festival, is of Swiss watchmaking precision.

I like Bolger a lot - I think he's an excellent trainer - and he has my sympathy throughout this sad chapter.

He'll have another superstar soon enough (even if you exclude the extremely talented filly, Finsceal Beo).

To racing systems.... and the tales of the tape make interesting reading, though there is still limited data available:

The Winning Racing Tips Selections so far were:

Turban Heights 0.4 e/w unplaced 20/1 -0.8 points
Fluffy 0.4 e/w 2^nd 8/1 -0.16 points
Asiatic Boy 1 e/w unplaced 7/2 -2 points

Total to date: -2.96 points

Although disappointing taken in microcosm, this service is still the best performing proofed service on the internet. Let’s hope that we hit the board a bit more over the next couple of days…

RSR results for Thursday:

Pivotal Queen 3-3.1 (liability of 0.1 points, LOST)
Enticing 5.2-5 (free bet for 0.2 points, LOST, 2nd)
Badalona 4.5-4.1 (free bet for 0.4 points, LOST, 2nd)

Franchoek, Sagredo, and Time Over did not qualify because either the market movement was invalid or the odds were not within the parameters.

Remember, that on all ‘free bet’ trades (i.e. any horse where the price gets shorter), there is an option to ‘lock in’ a smaller profit, irrespective of the result.

Running totals:

Total Upside Horses: 11
Total Liability Horses: 4

Total upside = 3.57 points
Total liability = 0.89 points

Today’s potential RSR Qualifiers are:

Bangor 3.05 Millards Lad
3.40 Pigeon Island
4.50 Tarkesar

Goodwood 2.50 Costume
3.30 Third Set
4.05 Western Art

Thirsk 2.05 Rio Taffeta
3.15 Honest Prospector
3.50 Ravenna

Alas, due to drinking and gambling commitments at Goodwood, I’ll be unable to track these. Based on results to date, you can be confident that if any of them win, there is a roughly three in four (or 73.33% in old money) chance that you would have had a free bet on them, using this guide.

As much as I dislike the man, this works.

More info (though I HATE the sales pitch!) at: http://tinyurl.com/3bg9la

Thursday’s Laying System Results:

Jamboretta 8^th 5/2 Fav
Silca Key 6^th 11/2

A touch more respectability (indeed, six losers in a row) to a tarnished reputation. Overall, the results remain extremely promising: it just seems I chose the wrong possible time to share my lay approach… Ho hum.

Today’s Laying System Lays Are:

Thirsk 3.15 Honest Prospector
Haydock 6.05 Raffish
8.15 Elopement

Goodwood 2.15 Munsef (my dear old friend… )

As I will be away gallivanting, I am afraid that Friday fun will be carried over until next week.

However, for those footy fans amongst you, if you haven’t yet seen Manchester United’s newest signing, you need to scout him. He looks very promising..!

Bon Weekend, and don't forget to sort out your FFL team. The numbers are slowly rising, but I'm still looking for more of you to join up. It's free (did I mention that?!) and there's prizes, so what are you waiting for?

http://www.premierleague.com/splash/fantasy/fantasy.html

And the league registration code: 533724-97750


Bon weekend!
Matt

Goodwood Day 3: Still 'Pot Hunting

Welcome back, dear reader, and it's tips time...

First up, Paul's Winning Racing Tips selections are:

Nottingham 4.20
Fluffy 0.4 points each way and
Turban Heights 0.4 points each way

My lays today are:
Sandown
7.30 Jamboretta
8.05 Silca Key

The potential RSR horses, odds and market activity depending, are:

Goodwood
Enticing
Badalona

Nottingham
Pivotal Queen
Franchoek
Sagredo
Time Over

And, finally, the moment you've all been waiting for (ahem), my placepot selections today...

2.15 Trick Or Treat / Wannabe Posh
2.50 Enticing / Bond City / Classic Encounter (enormous e/w price!) / Tawaasol / Prime Defender / Terentia (again, six choices guarantees nothing!!)
3.30 Geordieland (money down from a heavy punting - read, crooked - stable)
4.00 Smart Instinct / Proponent / Pipedreamer / Sahrati / Emerald Witness
4.35 Shmookh (best bet of the day) / Vitznau (just in case Shmookh isn't the best bet of the day!)
5.05 Badalona / Politeia

240 bets at 20p = £48

If I get through the first leg, I'm pretty hopeful today... If I don't, there's always tomorrow!

Ciao pronto
Matt

A Gold Medallion For The Italian Stallion!

Hello as ever, dear reader, and this morning I'd like to doff my cap to a countryman (and, well, a countrynag) of my father and forefathers.

Step forward the brilliant Lanfranco Dettori and his gutsy equine sidekick, Ramonti.

Over the past few seasons, Frankie has seemed more interested in getting the 'leg up' at home with wife Katharine (and who can blame him, she's lovely!), than riding eight horses a day at two separate meetings.

Not for him the pursuit of the jockeys' championship: that's for the boys who don't ride for royalty.

But don't mistake Dettori's apparent semi-retirement for a lack of desire. (Indeed, his frustration at being banned for all but yesterday's racing at Glorious Goodwood this week was almost palpable when interviewed by Racing UK yesterday. He walked away from the mike visibly livid and looked like he wanted to smash someone (small) firmly in the chops!)

His desire to help Godolphin back to the top of the tree is unquestioned. And yesterday he helped his employers strike two blows back against the mighty and dominant Coolmore operation.

First, he ambled to the front on the impressive Rio De La Plata, which will surely be underpriced for every race he runs in hereafter, and comfortably resisted Coolmore's Lizard Island.

The truth is that any reader who has ever ridden a horse (which counts me out, incidentally) could probably have got this one home, though likely without the Italian's panache.

But the second strike was by far the more impressive. Ramonti, Dettori's willing charge (and Bisogno's best bet of the day), travelled like a champion, was sent on by Frankie with over a quarter mile to go, and resisted the late charge of Coolmore's Excellent Art by a fast evaporating head.

I suspect that Ramonti was idling in front; Ramonti lengthened in the betting alarmingly before the race (which was good for me, because I kept 'topping up' my stake); but Ramonti was the one proven multiple Group 1 winner in the field.

He is not the best miler I've ever seen by a long chalk, but I love his guts and I love his consistency. If he goes to Monmouth Park on the last Saturday in October for the Breeders Cup Mile, I (and my chums) will be shouting ourselves hoarse for the horse they call Ramonti.

Eulogy over, and to business...

Yesterday's placepot went down on the last leg and, lest you think I was due a slice of the near £800 it paid, fret not. For if my filly had placed in the last it would have paid a fraction of what it did. I got my stakes back by laying her for a place, but again the big 'pot of the week is still to play for.

Frustratingly, I managed to find winners at 16/1, 12/1, 9/2 and 8/13 in the ticket and - at one point - was cursing the possibility of being the only winning jackpot punter (without a jackpot ticket). Of course Man Of Vision's third put paid to that, mercifully.

Racing Systems Revolution had an interesting day, as follows:

Legendary Guest 2.46-2.18 (free bet to win 0.28 points, WON)
Nassau Style 3.3-3.75 (liability of 0.45 points, LOST)
Love That Benny 3.7-3.1 (free bet to win 0.6 points, WON)
Sam's Secret 2.34-2.2 (free bet to win 0.14 points, WON)
Shanahan 2.26-2.06 (free bet to win 0.2 points, LOST)

Total Upside Horses: 4
Total Liability Horses: 1

Total upside = 1.22 points
Total liability = 0.45 points

Running totals:

Total Upside Horses: 9
Total Liability Horses: 3

Total upside = 2.97 points
Total liability = 0.79 points

To me, this is starting to look like a very interesting trading system. It seems to have a simple but effective means of identifying horses that are likely to shorten in the betting, thus allowing us to trade in and out, and either have a free bet on a very fancied horse, or lock in a profit by 'greening up'.

Although the system is not difficult, it may not be the most simple either. But I reckon anyone could get their head around it in just a few days.

I'll be tracking the qualifiers again today, as we're still dealing with a very small sample of runners at this stage.

[Incidentally, and an important aside, you may have seen an email from the author of RSR, or one of his promoters, yesterday proclaiming that they had had five winning trades and that Revue Princess was a loser for them. When I read this, I was worried I'd been doing something wrong, and went back to check the method again. I can assure you I have been tracking it to the letter, and this appears to be an example of trying to make the results fit the product. Although I like the product, I am really disappointed with the pitch, and it may prevent me from recommending it. I'm just not sure I want to put money into unscrupulous people like Steven Lee Jones's pockets].

My lays had a better day yesterday, with all four being beaten. (A muted cheer of relief from this corner).

Paul's e/w tip yesterday, Asiatic Boy, suffered the fate of many an each way wager, fourth place. I mentioned here that I was surprised at his selection on the basis that it was the horse's first turf attempt at Group 1 and I like to back horses with form in the book. Interestingly, Paul was miffed too, and was moved to write in his blog on the subject.

You can read that post here: http://winningracingtips.today.com/

By the way, thank you and well done to those who have entered Nag3 FFL already. If you haven't, go here and sort it out!

http://www.premierleague.com/splash/fantasy/fantasy.html

And the league registration code: 533724-97750

It's still FREE and there's still prizes, so there's still no excuses!

Back later with my Goodwood Placepot Selections
Matt

Big 'Pot Hunting & E/W Winning Tips Selections

Big Festival meetings are always the places where I like to try to grab a slice of the tasty placepot pie.

For some reason, I've always been better at finding placed horses than winners, and so I usually get close (if often, with no cigar).

[Incidentally, I was told the other day the etymology of 'Close But No Cigar'. Apparently it comes from the US fairgrounds of the 1920's and 30's when prizes for the skill games included nice Havana's. If you were unlucky, you'd be 'close but no cigar', so there you have it.]

I'm taking a fair few chances today, as I think the insoluble handicaps are wide open. With a big dollop of luck, this 'pot will be worth having, and I'll have a slab of it...

2.15 Full House / Great As Gold / Kayf Aramis / Secret Ploy / Noble Minstrel / Commemoration Day (I've gone down on the 1st leg with more selections than this!!)
2.50 Ellmau / Rio De Le Plata
3.30 Ramonti (best bet for me today)
4.05 Mariotto / Eradicate / Celestial Halo / Rosbay (cracking e/w wager) / Man Of Vision
4.40 Baltic Belle / Fongs Gazelle / Rhuepunzel (if I'm still going before this leg, I may wish I hadn't been so ballsy...)
5.10 Kashoof (IF - bigger 'if' this time - I'm still going before this leg, I'll lay her for a place to guarantee a return)

180 x 20p = £36

The E/W Winning Tips Selection today is Asiatic Boy in the 3.30 Goodwood (7/2 Totesport) You can use Betfair win(4.8)/place(1.65) markets, according to Paul.

Personally, like everyone else, I think Asiatic Boy could be a superstar, BUT he could flop on turf, and be much better suited by the Breeders Cup Classic on dirt, where I'd love to see him run irrespective of what happens today.

You can see the history of these selections at:

http://www.racing-index.com/tipsters/index.php

It's the number one service on the Backing side.

If you want to sign up or read more about it, you can do so by clicking the green and white ad link on the left side of this page.

By the way, did I mention I'm running a Fantasy Football League this season... ;)

Matt

Racing Systems Revolution Update: Still Very Interesting...

Blimey, is it Wednesday already, dear reader? Where does the time go?

Today's first post (yes, unlike Royal Mail, you very frequently get more than one post a day from Nag3!) has my first update on the performance of the latest product doing the rounds, Racing Systems Revolution (or RSR, to save my aching digits).

I, like many of you, am always sceptical when I see a product from the Steven Lee Jones 'factory'. He seems to produce so many, and each is claimed to be the final solution, that it rather dilutes his message.

But, in fairness to Jones, he has recognised the 30 second attention span that most of us have, and is pandering to that emotional spot.

I have registered here previously that I don't like his marketing pitch. I will do so again. I don't like his marketing pitch.

But one of the primary purposes of this blog is to get beyond the blusterous hyperbole, and into the nitty gritty; to ask the question, "Never mind the crap, does it actually work?!"

Well, I'm somewhat surprised to tell you that early indications are that there is some credit in this guide.

The objective / system is to identify horses that you can be pretty sure will shorten in the betting in the 10-15 minutes before the off. If you can consistently do this, it gives you two options:

1. Back at a bigger price, then lay for your stake nearer the off. (This gives you a free bet on, usually, the favourite in qualifying races).

2. Back at a bigger price, then lay for slightly more than your stake, thus 'greening up' (i.e. locking in a profit, whichever horse wins).

The method stands or falls then on the consistency of its ability to identify horses that will shorten. Although the rules for this are simple, they are well founded and - ultimately - seem to do the job.

My record for the races I've been able to track over the past two days is as follows:

Monday

Alabama Spirit Odds went from 3.25 into 3 (free bet to win 0.25 points, LOST)
Generous Thought 3.6-3.3 (free bet to win 0.3 points, LOST)
Too Posh To Share 2.1-2.34 (liability of 0.24 points, LOST)
Effigy 4.2-3.85 (free bet to win 0.35 points, LOST)

Tuesday

Starlit Sands 4.3-3.85 (free bet to win 0.45 points, LOST)
Samurai Way 4.6-4.7 (liability of 0.1 points, LOST)
Revue Princess 3-2.6 (free bet to win 0.4 points, WON)

Total Upside Horses: 5
Total Liability Horses: 2

Total upside = 1.75 points
Total liability = 0.34 points

I could have locked in small profits on most of these trades, but chose not to. Further, on an average test window like this, I would have expected a couple more of the horses to have won, thus giving more than the 0.4 points profit that I'm showing.

Five of the seven qualifying horses contracted in the betting, meaning that we could have traded out for a no risk wager.

That's an impressive start, and I'll be tracking the qualifiers still further over the next couple of days.

If you can't wait and want to check it out, you can do so here:

http://tinyurl.com/3bg9la

[Just a point of interest: Revue Princess was a lay for me, and the race was thoroughly unsatisfactory. Started by flag (!!!!!!), she stole four lengths at the start and the other horses blew themselves out playing catch up. She won by less than the margin she nicked. Not that I'm bitter... ahem]

Today's lays are:

Goodwood 4.05 Samira Gold
Goodwood 4.40 Gold Hush
Leicester 7.05 Limbo King
Redcar 2.05 Carnival Queen

Still having a tough time of it currently, alas.

Onto the footy, and specifically Fantasy League, where we all get to show the Whingeing Wengers, Moaning Mourinho's, Fuming Ferguson's, and downright Bonkers Benitez's what they should be doing, and who they should be signing / selecting.

Well done to those early birds who have already submitted their teams for the Nag3 Fantasy Football.

If you're holding out for final transfers before entering your side, note that you can make any amount of changes you like up to kick off day, 11th August, so get a strawman side in now, and mould it over the next ten days.

The link again: http://www.premierleague.com/splash/fantasy/fantasy.html

And the league registration code: 533724-97750

It's FREE and there's prizes, so no excuses!

I'll be banging on about this for the next week and more, so you might as well appease me now and signup ;)

Back later with my Goodwood placepot selections (5 out of 6, and 4th place in the other leg yesterday, but only paid £91. I'm a big 'pot hunter..!)

Matt