Winning Racing Tips E/W Selections

Alas, no selections again today.

Paul's approach is - quite rightly - that if he can't find a bet, he won't nominate one.

It's this selective nature that has him top of the league. Hopefully, we'll get some action tomorrow.

By the way, in case you're wondering how the Racing Systems Revolution guide is doing, it had an interesting first day yesterday, and I'll provide a two day report on progress after today's racing (or, more likely, in tomorrow's bulletin).

Matt

p.s. Don't forget to sign up for the Fantasy Footy at http://www.premierleague.com/splash/fantasy/fantasy.html

League code: 533724-97750

Truly Glorious... And The Footy Season Is Upon Us Too!

Ah, Glorious Goodwood, dear reader. One of the great festivals in the racing calendars and one which, for the first time, I will be attending (on Friday).

I'm very much looking forward to that, but between now and then, we need to earn some bunce!

To help with this particular quest, I've been playing around with the draw again (strong high bias on the round course), and I've created an interesting little system.

You can see it on the 'Free Systems' page (click the link at the top of this page, next to 'blog').

My placepot fancies today are:

2.15 Zero Tolerance, Fort Churchill, Peruvian Prince (I might be looking at the quadpot after this!)
2.50 Aqaleem (strongly fancied today)
3.25 Asset, Dubai's Touch, Mutawaajid (strong e/w fancy)
4.00 Spirit of Sharjah (go Julia!!), Starlit Sands
4.35 Strategic Mount, Go Solo, Tilt, Cape Secret
5.05 Shallal (fancied though lots of unexposed nags), Royalist

144 x 25p = £36. See you at the payout queue!

Today's lays are:
Goodwood 4.35 Samurai Way
Beverley 4.50 Revue Princess

Finally, on the horse racing front, I've had a number of requests for the standard times and speed ratings spreadie that I use to calculate my numbers. In order to most expediently service these requests, I've put them up in cyberspace.

Please bear in mind that the standard times belong to Nick Mordin's team at nickmordin.com.

Times: www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/speed/standard_times.txt

Spreadsheet (Excel): www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/speed/070718.xls

Now then.....

It may or may not have escaped your attention that in the very near future, we shall be graced by the regular sight of 22 men kicking a painted pigskin towards a couple of white rectangles, in front of multiple thousands of partisan apes, all arbitrated by short-sighted drama queens.

Yes, dear readers, the football season is shortly upon us once more, and in this week of rejoicing, this is cause for yet one more 'Hallelujah'!

To get you in the mood, and to create some cross-reader bonhomie, I thought that I'd set up a Fantasy Football League (FFL). I'm sure you all know the premise: pick a squad; score points for goals, assists, clean sheets, etc; take the p155 out of your poorly performing mates; and try to win a prize.

The league I use is a free one (and in my opinion the best one), so it will cost you nothing to enter. There are cash prizes put up by Barclaycard and Budweiser, the joint sponsors.

And I will put up some racing related prizes as well, just as soon as I've worked out what they are.

I'm conscious that many of us get squillions of FFL invites each season, and the other great thing about this site is that you can enter the same team in multiple different leagues. So, for instance, my team will be competing in my Saturday football side (go Southgate County 5th XI!!), my old work league (go RBS techies!), and of course in the Nag3 Superleague.

Enough bluster from me - get over to http://www.premierleague.com/splash/fantasy/fantasy.html

and get signed up. Once you've chosen your team which will be entered of course into the overall competition, select the 'Leagues' button from the menu on the right hand side, and - where it says 'Join A Private League', enter this code:

533724-97750

(If you already have a team registered with PremierLeague.com, you simply do the 'Leagues', 'Join A Private League', enter code bit - easy as that).

The more the merrier, so get your mates to sign up as well, and then you can get beer / bragging rights out of them (or they can get them off you!).

I warn you, I'm a demon FFL player, so expect to royally whooped by the King of FFL!! ;o)

Paul's Each Way Selections, if there are any, will appear here later.

Get signed up for the footy now!!!
Matt

Part 3: “What Our Transatlantic Cousins Can Teach Us About Picking Winners. And Losers!”

Using Speed To Assess A Horse’s Chance

Let me begin this piece by asking a (loaded) question:

“If you were to place a bet on the likely winner of a 100m race, would you bet the fastest man in the field or the man who won his last two races against inferior opposition?”

I hope that you answered “the fastest man” and, if you didn’t, I hope that by the end of this, you will be converted.

Having said that, it’s not always the case that the fastest man will win. Although in 100m races, this is typically true, sometimes athletes fluff the start and have too much catching up to do.

In races of 1,500m or more, there may be a tactical situation where the fastest man loses his speed advantage over the full distance, and is usurped by the man (or woman) with the best finishing kick.

As it is true for track athletes, so it is also true for cyclists, auto racers, rowers, and horses.

Time waits for no man (or beast). The evidence of the clock is incontrovertible.

However, while the time a horse records in winning a race may be unarguable, the elements that conspired to that win – the jockey, the pace in the race, the going, the wind speed and direction, the track constitution, and whether the ground staff moved the running rails – are all open to interpretation.

This makes the ‘science’ of speed assessment an inexact one, and it is precisely this inexactitude that makes for potential profit.

In this country, there are a number of ratings services who increasingly rely on the evidence of the clock, in conjunction with other imponderables, to identify the likeliest winner in a given line-up. The most obvious one is Timeform, and there are numerous others.

In the US speed guru Andy Beyer’s seminal work, “Picking Winners”, he espouses the virtues of using the evidence of the stopwatch to find winners. In his foreword in that book, Beyer writes,

“Surely it doesn’t require much imagination to conclude that races will often be won by the fastest horse. Yet in 1975, this idea was considered heterodox, even preposterous. Horseplayers believed in class, not speed, and experts would often pose a hypothetical question like this one: A $10,000 [claiming value] horse runs six furlongs in 1:11.0. A $20,000 horse runs the same six furlongs in 1:11.6. Now they are matched against each other, who will win? The overwhelming majority of people involved in American racing would have answered without hesitation that the $20,000 animal’s superior class would enable him to prevail. Even Tom Ainslie, the most astute and literate author of handicapping books, espoused the supreme importance of class.

Of course, there were in America some bettors who recognised the importance of speed and profited handsomely by betting the $10,000 horse who could run faster than his $20,000 rival”.

Now, personally, I don’t think that in this example, where there are only three-fifths of a second between the two runners, that it is necessarily the case that the fastest horse would win, because that time difference would equate to only four lengths on a traditional interpretation of times (see below). And that sort of difference could easily be countered by a troubled passage or a missed beat at the start.

However, the more likely winner, would unquestionably be the faster horse. So the bet would have to be on the faster horse.

What was true in America in 1975 is still true today here for many racing punters. A formerly smart handicapper dropping to claiming company is often assumed to be a good thing, even though the numbers may indicate he is by no means the fastest horse.

The stats for this are instructive.

If you had bet £1 on every horse running in a claimer over the last five years, that had had its previous run in a handicap, you’d have lost a whopping £1618.08.

Even if you limited those runners to horses who appeared in the first three in the betting, you’d still have lost an eye watering £192.08.

Although class can help as an indicator of form (as we’ll discover another day), speed is a more quantifiable measure.

So how does one actually go about calculating speed ratings? It is obvious to even the newest of newbies that it is not simply a case of clocking the time for a race. This would make no account of the numerous variables already touched upon, particularly track constitution and going.

So, in order to factor some of these elements into the calculations, and to create a degree of uniformity, we need some reference data.

Firstly, we need a set of ‘standard times’. A standard time is simply a constant approximation of the time a horse would take to cover the race distance for a particular class of race at a particular track, usually whilst carrying a specific weight. From there, the individual race times on a given day can be derived, and a ‘track variant’, or going allowance, can be calculated.

Although this may sound complicated, it really isn’t. I’ve set up a little Excel spreadsheet for the four all weather tracks that enables me to calculate the ratings for the race winners on a given day in around ten minutes.

The number crunching to manually enter all the data into another spreadsheet takes me a little longer, but the actual calculation part is simple and broadly automated.

If any reader is interested in the spreadsheet template and my set of standard times, which I got from speed guru, Nick Mordin, please let me know and I’d be happy to share them.

So, the process for working out the speed figures is as follows:

1. Enter the distance and race class for each race on the card
2. Enter the actual times the winners recorded
3. Calculate the track variant
4. Work out the ratings for the beaten horses

The first part is simple, especially using my spreadie.

Point two is equally straightforward.

Thereafter, life gets a bit more interesting. Lest you think that everyone who does this will get the same results, and therefore the value is diluted, let me disabuse you of that notion.

The track variant is interpretable. What I tend to do, in line with the Nick Mordin approach outlined in his book ‘Betting For A Living’ and stated in full in the excellent ‘Mordin on Time’, is throw out the fastest and slowest (after applying the class allowance elements) run races.

I then look at the subset of data I have left to see if there are any further outliers (i.e. race times that are obviously out of kilter with the remainder).

For all of the remaining race times, I calculate the average, based on the adjusted time difference per mile. This then becomes my track variant.

It really is a lot easier to do than to explain, but if you’re interested in learning more, I heartily recommend you get a copy of Mordin on Time. (It’s available on Amazon for about eight quid).

To calculate the ratings for the beaten horses, you simply divide the distance beaten by the race distance in miles, and subtract that from the winner’s rating. So for instance, a horse beaten two lengths in a one mile race, would get a rating of two less than the winner (2 divided by 1 = 2). Likewise, a horse beaten three lengths in a six furlong (or 0.75 mile) race, would get a rating of four less than the winner (3 divided by 0.75 = 4).

I need to clarify two points here:

Firstly, the numbers create a relationship between time and distance beaten, by assuming that one point on the ratings equates to one length beaten over a mile or, in time terms one fifth of a second per mile. So, in theory, a horse beaten a length over a mile has run to the same relative mark against the race winner as a horse beaten two lengths over two miles. (I hope this makes sense).

Secondly, you’ll notice I’ve made only passing reference to weight in my assessments. This is because my experience, and that of much better qualified judges, suggests that the influence of weight is overrated, especially on all weather tracks, where I focus my attentions.

It’s true that a horse due to carry a stone more weight may struggle, but a pound or two here or there is rarely as important as the horse’s winning / trying attitude.

By following this simple rating procedure, you can quickly build up a database of numbers against horses. And you will find that sometimes a horse will surprise you with a very high rating. Do not be afraid to accept that a horse can improve significantly for a change of surface, or if unexposed on the surface. Be more sceptical if the horse is more experienced and suddenly throws in a freakishly fast time: the chances of a repeat are slim.

I mentioned recently that Les Fazzani ran very quickly in what seemed a fairly ‘run of the mill’ race at Kempton. She came out and won again next time by four lengths at odds of 5/1. (I didn’t back her because the race was on turf but, had she been running again at Kempton, I’d have pulled the boots on! And she’d surely have won).

It’s this type of information that is not necessarily available to the public, and that is fairly objective (remember, there is some interpretation in the numbers) that can be so powerful.

Before work commitments precluded me spending the time on them, I kept ratings for Lingfield, Southwell and Wolverhampton for four winters in a row. I made money each and every year.

I plan to reinstate the ratings for this winter, which is why I have been dusting off the old spreadies, and why I’ve acquired some up-to-date standard times.

I’m very much looking forward to a profitable winter season!

[Note, the reason I only look at speed ratings for all weather tracks is because generally there are many less variables to deal with. For instance, the running rails are never moved and therefore the distance is always as advertised; the going changes much less markedly than on turf tracks; horses who act at a track once are pretty likely to replicate that; horses who don’t are equally likely to replicate their failure; and there is a good chance that horses will continue to run consistently at the same location, due to the number of fixtures from October to March.]

One important note of caution which is worth repeating: as I mentioned at the top of this piece, a fast horse can only run a fast time in a fast run race. I appreciate that may be a statement of glaring obviousness.

But remember that small field races, or races where there is no obvious front runner(s), or races over a longer trip (a ‘route’ as they say, Stateside), often become tactical and any advantage a fast horse has can be nullified unless he also possesses a turn of foot.

This brings us nicely onto pace as a means of identifying race winners, which I will discuss in more detail next time…

Matt

Wouldn't You Just Know It!

There are no Winning Tips E/W selections today.

In A Packed Programme Tonight...

Good morning, dear reader, and once again welcome to the world of work. But fear not. For these five days of drudgery will surely fly by with the help of Nag3's bumper bag of bonus goodies.

This week, you'll not only be getting the Laying System selections (as I attempt to extricate myself from a short term but very public hole), but also Paul Ruffy will be sharing his each way winners.

Paul's service has been top of the long term tipping charts on Racing Index for as long as I can remember, so I'm delighted to be able to share some of his wisdom with you.

The third prong to our tipping / laying / trading attack this week comes from a trial of the latest 'system to end all systems' from the conveyor belt of Steven Lee Jones, the so called 'Racing Systems Revolution' (hereafter known as RSR).

As if that wasn't enough to feed even the hungriest of systemite mouths, I'll also be bringing you more of my own thoughts on the tools and techniques the Yanks use to find winners, and how we can perhaps add them to our own analysis armoury.

All this, and its Glorious Goodwood week! I'll actually be at Goodwood on Friday, so if you see me say hello :)

But before then, there will be plenty of action on the blog, starting here with a quick preview of RSR.

The sales bluster barks:

"My fellow Betfair gamblers, welcome to the land of hypocrisy. Driven by greedy 'insiders', self-serving tipsters, and self-appointed 'experts'."

If that isn't the most hypocritical statement I've ever read, I'm struggling to think of a bigger contender. I mean, its so bad, you almost hope it's tongue in cheek..!

The man who releases a product every fortnight, and clearly thinks you're stupid, goes on to say, "Every single system they have sold you has been to harm YOU, to keep you down, out of the inner 1%."

Jones is frequently the 'they' in question. Ahem.

For all that I despise this man's sales copy as lazy, conspiratorial, self-righteous bull5h1t, the product itself is a bit different from Jones' usual 'systems', inasmuch as there appears to be a much sounder principle at play.

Although the guide is short at just 24 pages, it is also accompanied by the regular 'How To Use Betfair' manual that supports all of Jones' products. So if you're new to betfair (where have you been hiding?!), you can learn the fundamentals pretty quickly.

The guide is a 'rush job', with numerous typo's and spelling mistakes.

The testimonials say that the triallists (the same three who testified for Laying Seven and Lay Maestro curiously enough. Bizarre coincidence? Erm, no...) have been looking at the product for a week, and yet the examples in the guide are from 26th July, so that is not really possible.

And yet... despite my desire to poohpooh this with conviction... I actually like the idea that he's trying to put forward... I believe it may have merit.

I can't help but not want to give a Jones system a positive review, and time will tell on that score, but I am as interested as you may be to find out how this performs under test.

So, how does RSR work?

Well, as ever, I can't give the whole plot away or you won't go to the movie... but in essence, the idea is to pick certain fancied runners which, based on supporting evidence, have a decent chance of being overbet.

The consequence of this for us is that we can trade in and out on a horse. That is, we can identify a horse we believe will receive market support, back it early in the support cycle, and then lay it back shortly before the race, to lock in a profit.

Simple concept and one that we see time and again every day. The key question then becomes, "Are the selection criteria identifying the right 'steamer' animals?".
Well, obviously, at this stage I don't know the answer to that. But over the course of the next four days, I intend to put it to the test.

I could of course identify every qualifier at every meeting but, to be honest, that would too time consuming. (I need to eat, and go to the bathroom from time to time, dear reader!)

Indeed, one more pearl from RSR is that the user should not be greedy, and should only seek to trade perhaps two or three times a day.

Because of the nature of the system, and the activity required in the runup to the race, it's not straightforward for me to nominate potential selections in advance, as there may not be sufficient liquidity on certain horses.

However, probable contenders today come from a subset of this list:
- Zippi Jazzman (Wolves)
- Generous Thought (Windsor)
- Effigy (Windsor)
- Foreign Rhythm (Windsor)
- Sonning Star (Windsor)
- Too Posh To Share (Uttox)
- The Honourable Lady (Uttox)
- Sonic Anthem (Uttox)
- Farington Lodge (Uttox)
- Seattle Robber (Uttox)
- Alabama Spirit (Yarm)
- Rough Rock (Yarm)
- Rosy Alexander (Yarm)

Due to other commitments this evening (yes, I do have a social life!), I will likely only track the afternoon runners at Yarmouth and Wolverhampton, but that should be ample to get a feel for the approach. I may also get the early races at Windsor and Uttoxeter, but no promises on that score.

Paul's each way tips will be available between 12 and 1pm, so I'll pass those on directly nearer the time.

My lay today is Rough Rock in the 3.00 at Yarmouth. He is short enough at odds on and, despite being dropped in a weak race, may not have the resolution to see it through.

Later today, I also hope to bring you the third part of the US Form series, looking at the use of speed assessments.

Finally, you'll notice just below the title of this post an opportunity to share the blog content with any friends or colleagues who are interested in racing.

Do feel free to pass it on to them, if you think they'd enjoy it.

Happy Monday to you.
Matt

Sunday Service

Hello again, dear reader, and another short weekend post.

The lays this week have had a torrid time, bordering on embarrassing for yours truly.

Nevertheless, my loss is your gain. (You will have been paper trading only, while my confidence in the selection criteria means I've been shedding hard cash this week alas).

Your gain because I will be featuring the lays for another week, because I am determined to demonstrate the long term opportunity they present.

Also, I'm delighted to be able to tell you that I'll be trialling a tipster on this column next week for you.

And not just any old tipster. Oh no... this is the Nag3 site after all!

This guy is top of the Racing Index Tipping League by a country mile - in fact, here is his service and the next best...

Service Bets SR% Profit ESP
Winning Racing Tips 176 38.1 36.81 915
B4racing 99 29.3 14.85 229

The ESP number (915 against next best of 229) is a formula used to calculate value and, as you can see, there's no contest.

So I'll be looking forward to sharing this guy's wisdom with you next week.

Today's lay is the old monkey, Tam Lin, at Pontefract.

Matt

Saturday's Lays

Just a quick post today, dear reader, for the sunshine beckons.

Today's lays are as follows:

Ascot 4.20 Dylan Thomas
Ascot 4.55 Ektimaal (lay for a place)
Newc 2.20 Low Flyer
Salis 6.40 Norisan

Matt

Friday Fun: The Simpsons....

Its that time of the week again, dear reader, when work yields to play, and we enjoy some fun on a Friday.

This week, in honour of the magnificent Simpsons Movie, I've raided the youtube archives to bring a touch of culture, yellow stylee...

If you haven't seen the Simpsons Movie yet (and you probably haven't, it was only released last night), it comes highly recommended. So many great gags, such as Homer searching for an epiphany: "If you only touch it once or twice, it doesn't count as playing with yourself?!", and the magnificent Spider Pig scene. You've got to see it, I fear I'm not doing it justice).

Here is Hamlet, reworked by Mr Groening:



And here is the trailer featuring Spider Pig - go and see this movie! Take the kids, the wife, the girlfriend, the boyfriend, the mother in law, the next door neighbour, that cute girl you've been meaning to ask out, the checkout girl at Tesco, your lollipop lady, or just yourself. But go and see it, I promise you'll love it!



I might go and see it again tomorrow...

Bon weekend tout le monde!
Matt

"Tour In No Riders Kicked Out Today Shocker!" Plus Racing Stuff...

Good morning, dear reader, and the happiest of happy Fridays to you. Rejoice, for today, we revel in the no news that no Tour riders have been banned for being, in the words of the excellent Matt Chapman, "doped up to the eyeballs".

Yes, the flattish stage yesterday was a complete non-event that started somewhere and ended somewhere else. The only moment of minor interest was when Denis Menchov, a teammate of fallen yellow jersey rider Michael Rasmussen, got off his bike in a fit of apathy, and decided his race was over.

There's another non-event stage today, before some very interesting action tomorrow.

I actually finally backed a stage winner this year, having sided with the now banned Vinokourov on Monday.

And I am confident of the stage win tomorrow as well. These are the only two names you need: Cadel Evans and Fabian Cancellara. One of these two WILL win tomorrow.

You heard it here first.

On Sunday, they file onto the Champs Elysees in Paris for six laps of the famous cobbles and most likely a sprint finish. Its normally a lesser known sprinter who triumphs here, and my two will be - as ever - Thor Hushovd, plus Robbie Hunter.

After a small mention of the Tour on Monday, I promise to confine it to the dustbin of blogging history. For ten and a half months at least... ;)

Horses, horses. Let's talk about some horses.

Yet further rejoicing in the Nag household, as not one but two (yes, both) of yesterday's lays were turned over. In what has been an equally torrid week for me as it has been for Messrs Rasmussen and Vinokourov (ok, slight overstatement...), the tide may have turned...

Today's lay selections are:

1.25 Thirsk Goodbye
2.10 Ascot Nahoodh
8.15 Newm The Geezer

On the backing front, I fancy a few today. At Ascot, Jamie Osborne's Enjoy The Moment must go close in the staying event. Indeed, Osborne has a strong hand there today, as he also runs Tears Of A Clown which, while not carrying my money, will be tough to beat I reckon.

Also, Comma at Newmarket looks interesting. She was touched off by a horse called Les Fazzani last time. The latter won by 5 lengths at York last night and, much more significantly, I awarded these two the highest speed numbers I've dished out to date on my fledgling sand ratings. (Very annoyingly, I chose to pass on Les Fazzani last night because of the transition from sand to turf).

Other news, and many thanks to St Crispin who, after my rant yesterday, was good enough to email and apologise for his previous comments. Thank you sir, that's much appreciated.

During that rant, you may remember that I suggested (in a mocking) fashion that the Saint might like to try Laying Maestro. Well, since then, I've had the best part of a dozen emails from people saying they have it and its' - erm - not very good.

So, here's the deal everyone. If you have bought a product through Clickbank and you don't like it, you can claim a refund by taking the following action:

Go to www.clickbank.com and at the top right, there is an option called customer service.

Select customer questions, and it should bring up a form that you can fill in to request a refund. In the ‘subject of request’ box, select ‘I would like to request a refund’.

Note, you will need your clickbank invoice with your order id on it.

Two more points of interest. Firstly, the Noel Wilson Racing Club that I mentioned previously as an affordable way of getting into a syndicate is still available.

The reason I mention this again today is because I notice that they have their first runner, Red Skipper, this afternoon at Thirsk in the 2.00. Now, don't expect too much. The likelihood is that the horse will very much need the run, and will come to himself later in the season, probably in nurseries.

If you want more info on the club, take a look at their newsletter, which is here.

I wish them well with that.

Incidentally, my own (part of) race horse is back in training after his setback and, apparently, going well. He is scheduled to run at Newmarket next Saturday 4th August. I will be there, as I will be at Goodwood the previous day. If any Nag readers plan to be at those meetings and would like to say hello, just drop me an email using the feedback page on here. I'm always pleased to meet people. (Don't get out much, you see...!) :)

Finally, a quick thank you to those who have used the button on the top left of the page to tell their friends about this blog. And a request: if you know of someone who might like to read my daily drivel / bluster / informative racing and other sporting bulletins, click the "Tell A Friend About This Blog" button and mail it to them.

Alternatively, just get them to click here, and hit send on their email program. That will sign them up too. (They'll even get a special signup bonus - woohoo!)

Many thanks for your continued support, and I'll be back later with some Friday fun, inspired by the greatest yellow family ever, The Simpsons. (Went to the movie last night - brrrrrrrrrrrilliant!)

Until then...
Matt

Part 2: “What Our Transatlantic Cousins Can Teach Us About Picking Winners. And Losers!”

UK Form And Its Shortcomings

Under the reign of Queen Anne, during the period 1702-1714, horse races involving several horses on which spectators placed bets took over from match racing and horse racing became a professional sport, with racecourses founded throughout England, including the track at Ascot, founded by Queen Anne herself, in 1711.

In 1750 in the Star and Garter pub, Pall Mall, the first meeting of what was to become The Jockey Club was convened.

Their initial remit was to ensure that races run on Newmarket Heath were done so fairly, and the statutes they instated were soon embraced by many of the racecourses operating in Britain at that time.

The estimable daily racing newspaper, The Sporting Life, was first published in 1859, and lived until the ripe old age of 139, before being amalgamated with the Racing Post in 1998.

The reason for this selective and potted history lesson is that between the robust regimen of the Jockey Club, and the widespread dissemination of information propagated by the Sporting Life, horse race wagering became much more common practice from the middle of the 19^th century.

Wagering had been a part of horse racing since the middle 1600’s, but it gained a new aura of trust and respectability with the publication of both rules of racing and official form and results.

At some point, and I can’t find any evidence of when, some clever soul must have realised that if all horses raced as equals (i.e. with just a saddle and a jockey on their back), some of them would prevail too regularly to sustain betting.

The reason for my contention is that horse racing as a sport would surely honour the fastest horse, just as athletics as a sport honours the fastest athlete, rather than try to find ways to give slower and less capable horses a chance to win.

However, in order to make betting more interesting – and therefore more popular, and in turn therefore to generate more revenue – measures were needed to even out the theoretical chances of all horses in a race.

Thus ‘handicap’ races were conceived (anybody know when?), where the best horse is allotted the most weight to carry, in order to attempt to level out its chance against the other contenders.

This weight measurement became the pre-eminent unit of form analysis in British horse racing. Weight equals lengths, and lengths beaten – or in front of – another animal is still taken as a fairly literal interpretation of the respective merits of the beasts in any given contest.

To my mind, this is patently ridiculous. There are so many basic imponderables ignored by a study predicated on this concept.

Elements such as the pace of the race: that is, how fast was the race run? Was the race run at a similar speed throughout? Or was it stop / start? Did the winner lead off slowly and ‘steal’ the win? Or did it come from far back, outstaying tired runners who’d shot their bolts?

How can you infer that in weight and lengths?

Elements such as the going, the distance and course: what were the underfoot conditions? And when they recorded the going as good to soft at Cheltenham and horses were breaking track records, did they think we didn’t know they were lying? (For God’s sake, let’s get out of the dark ages and use a common scientific turf moisture measuring tool, like the penetrometer or some such!).

The distance of the race: yes, it was a mile on the race card. But did you know they’d moved the rail in ten feet? Around a two furlong turn, that makes a significant difference to the overall distance.

The course: A beat B by five lengths around the turning 5 furlongs at Chester. Therefore, he should win by the same margin on the straight course at Sandown with all other things equal, right? Wrong.

What if B is a huge tank of a horse? He’d have no chance of finding any kind of rhythm on the bullring that is the Roodee. Much better suited to a stiff galloping dash like that at Esher’s finest. I’d take B to put five lengths into A on a straight track.

Of course, you will rightly identify that most savoir faire students of form will factor in a number of these elements and, indeed, this information is now much more freely available thanks to the wonders of the information age.

Nevertheless, UK racing still has at its heart, lengths beaten and weight carried.

Furthermore, there is some evidence that weight actually makes very little difference to a horse’s performance. Sure, if you put an extra two stone on its back, then that has a bearing. But if you put the equivalent of a bag of sugar or two on the lumbar of a ton of rippling equine sinew, do you seriously think that will do the trick?

The fact is that horses going up a few pounds win far more often than those going down a few pounds.

In Nick Mordin’s excellent “Betting For A Living”, he did a survey of 222 races over a three year period, where in each case two horses who had previously finished close together (within two lengths) were going head to head again.

When the weight differential remained the same, or the loser from the first meeting carried more weight, the loser lost again 56 times out of 96 – or 58%.

When the weight differential allowed the loser to carry less weight, it lost 73 times out of 126. Or 58%.

In other words, an average weight pull of 2.45lbs made not one iota of difference overall to the chances of the losing horse from the first time reversing the placings next time they met.

According to weights and lengths, that weight turnaround should allow the tables to be turned on each occasion (distance depending).

Looking at this from another perspective and, irrespective of collateral form between runners or mutual previous adversaries, there is a distinct pattern in handicaps. Take a look at the following data:

Years: 2004 2005 2006

Weight Rank - Descending (handicaps)

CATEGORY WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% VSP%

1st (top weight) 1354 10842 12.49 -1721.74 -15.88 -8.39

2nd 954 8291 11.51 -1630.81 -19.67 -11.58

3rd 860 8235 10.44 -1577.51 -19.16 -15.08

4th 849 8324 10.20 -1979.05 -23.78 -11.32

5th 770 8104 9.50 -1438.82 -17.75 -12.85

6th 710 8138 8.72 -1692.27 -20.79 -13.90

7th 556 7641 7.28 -1960.25 -25.65 -21.59

8th 518 7239 7.16 -1777.71 -24.56 -18.17

9th 396 6461 6.13 -2102.38 -32.54 -22.22

10th+ 1187 23035 5.15 -6503.10 -28.23 -21.29

There are two points to make here:

1. There is an exact linear relationship between a horse’s weight position in the handicap hierarchy, and its win strike rate (‘chapeau’ to the handicapper!!). Top weights win just about once in every eight handicaps, whereas those tenth or lower win only around one in twenty.
2. Losses are limited the most when solely backing top weighted horses in handicaps, with about 84p returned for every £1 wagered at SP. With horses at the tail of the handicap, you’d lose pushing 30p in every pound!

In summary in this post, I’ve tried to highlight some of the shortcomings in simply taking the collateral form methodology as a means to identify the most likely winner of a horse race.

I totally accept the accusation that I may have exaggerated the import of weight and lengths in relation to some of the more sophisticated readers’ approaches.

However, I still believe that the majority of ‘skim’ form students (i.e. those who look beyond the 1’s, 2’s and 0’s to the left of a horse’s name, but not much beyond them) perceive distance beaten and weight carried as informative determinants in their quest to solve the puzzle.

We’ve seen here that small deviations in weight actually have a very limited likelihood of instigating a form reversal and, in the case of handicap races, a highly weighted horse should – on balance – be seen as a positive factor.

In the next exciting (!) instalment, we’ll start to look at alternative approaches, starting with my favourite – and probably the most obvious – element, speed.

Until then…
Matt

N.B. the next piece in this series will not be until early next week. I trust that won’t spoil anyone’s weekend ;o)

Now The Tour Loses Its Ras-Matazz! And Today's Lays

Well, just when you thought the Tour could stoop no lower, dear reader, so it manages to scrape itself sub-terranean.

Yesterday came news of a positive drug test for Christian Moreni (about the only Italian in the race to make the news!).

But worse was to follow, as suspected doping offender, and clear race leader Michael Rasmussen, was sensationally booted out by his own team.

Nobody at cycling's world body or in the Tour organising committee shed a tear for the very suspicious Ras.

It transpires that he has recently failed to notify authorities of his whereabouts on four occasions, when three failures is treated as a positive drug test with an ensuing ban.

But worse than that, and what his paymasters could not accept, Rasmussen lied about his whereabouts in the run-up to the race. He had said that he was in Mexico, where his wife is from.

In fact, he was in Italy working with Dr Michele Ferrari, the infamous cycling quack known to make his wheelers go faster, by fair means or foul.

The cloud of suspicion became too heavy for Rabobank and then it burst, leaving Rasmussen without a job and without a team, and the Tour with a new young (hopefully clean) rider at the helm.

Step forward Alberto Contador. He is around two minutes up on Nag3 selection Cadel Evans, with just one meaningful stage to go.

That stage is the time trial this Saturday, and Evans will be favourite to win it. Whether he can beat Contador, who is a fair TT man himself, by two minutes is doubtful but not impossible.

Either way, barring any more drama, and my top 3 and top 6 wagers on the Aussie look safe. (I also had a small wager on Contador at 22/1 if you remember).

Onto racing, and the Laying System selections. A winner and a loser yesterday, so I'm definitely in the midst (ideally at the end) of a poor run.

Today's lays are:

York 7.30 Secret World
Sandown 3.55 Amarna

On the subject of these lays, and in response to a very surprising email I received, my advice is always to paper trade with a new system.

Moreover, any lay system has the propensity for significant short term losses, which in no way hinders its chances of long term gains.

It happens that this week I started to share the lays on a down cycle, but that will pass. To the gentleman who contacted me to tell me he'd lost money and would be better with a pin, I say you are right sir. You clearly do not have the right attitude with your betting to make something like this pay.

Perhaps you might try Laying Seven or the Laying Maestro systems: I'm told they're very good... (granted I'm told that by their own marketing spiel, and I've never seen them put up a selection ahead of time, but it might be for you sir...)

To take laying seriously, you need a bank of at least 40 points, you need patience and discipline, and you need to see a mid- to long-term view.

Lecture over. Sometimes people just p155 me off!

Back later with part 2 in the series on US vs UK form analysis, for those of you who are interested in such things.

Matt

“What Our Transatlantic Cousins Can Teach Us About Picking Winners. And Losers!”

Introduction

Horse racing as a sport has thrived in this country for over 900 years. It is said that the Crusaders returned from their battles with lightning swift Arab horses as early as the 12^th Century. Known as the Sport of Kings, it was the likes of Lord Derby (after whom the principle race in the UK flat calendar is named) and his moneyed cohorts who exclusively enjoyed the thrills of ownership for most of the intervening years.

Indeed, the colours of Lord Derby are still carried with honour, most recently by the incomparable race mare, Ouija Board.

Across ‘The Pond’, in America, it was also the British settlers who instigated horse racing as a sport. The first recorded US track was built at Long Island, on the East Coast, in 1665.

Both sides of the big watery divide, the single common element that increased the popularity of horse racing was that the outcome could not be predicted with any certainty.

And of course the consequence of an uncertain outcome is, and always has been, a wager.

Gambling continues to pay the way for horse racing everywhere, though for how much longer so much poor sport can sustain itself (especially here in UK) is in some doubt, in the mind of this scribe at least.

The point of this rather ragged and incomplete history lesson, lest you wonder, is to emphasise the fundamental role of betting in the sport.

Betting makes for winners and losers, and – in the case of horse racing – the result is binary. You either have a ‘1’, and a win and a payout. Or you have a ‘0’, and not a win, and a loss.

This risk / reward scenario has been embraced since time immemorial as an opportunity to make money.

Historically, when communications such as we have in this digital age were less plausible than putting a man into space, foul play abounded, and scams were commonplace.

It was a brave (or foolhardy) man who struck, or accepted, a wager. Of course, this ‘glorious uncertainty’ deterred neither the aristocracy nor the peasant classes from wading in with their size nine buskins.

In more recent times, with the formation of various governing bodies, from local to international levels, and the appointment of senior on-course judiciary, the scope for skulduggery has reduced manifold (despite what the conspiracy theorists and terminal losers will try to peddle to you if they think you offer even half an ear in their direction).

This makes the practice of trying to find winners more scientific and less susceptible to the unknown and underhand machinations of a preconceived plot.

With the possibility that science or at least artistic study could identify the most likely winner of a race among thoroughbreds, came the students to whose dedication to methodical analysis we owe everything we know today about what is commonly called ‘form’.

The interesting aspect, and the key theme of this mini-series, is the disparate evolution of horse racing form analysis that has developed on the two respective sides of the Atlantic.

The concept of collateral form – that is, A beat B by 5 lengths, and B beat C by 3 lengths; therefore, A should beat C by 8 lengths – is almost utterly alien Stateside. And yet it is the staple here in Britain and Ireland.

By the same token, the notions of pace, class and speed – which underpin US form study – are still the poor relations of collateral form in our verdant lands.

In the course of some of the following posts, I hope to introduce you to some of the key principles of US race analysis, and illustrate how prudent employment of these ideas can lead to real value in one’s betting here in Blighty.

Furthermore, if a methodology can identify the horse best suited to the prevailing conditions, or the fastest horse and, therefore, one to bet, it follows that the same methodologies can identify slow horses, or horses patently unsuited by the race makeup and, consequently, those to oppose.

In this day and age, this affords both bettor and bookmaker opportunities, and it is in both of these spheres that we should seek to take advantage of our window of opportunity.

And but a window it is. For, as with all systems and methods, its effectiveness will be finite and timebound. What works today because it is the premise of a minority of anti-establishment thinkers will tomorrow be the accepted wisdom of everyman.

Although it is sometimes difficult to take the less well-trodden route, it is unequivocally there that the path to financial gain lies.

Tomorrow, we'll look at the history and evolution of UK form, and briefly consider its strengths and weaknesses as a means of identifying horses to invest in.

Matt

Today's Racing

Back from the gym, dear reader, and my head is somewhat clearer.

Time to escape the murky waters inhabited by sharks on bicycles, and revert to what we all know and love best: dear old horses.

Alas, again, I can't find anything to get excited about. It really is pretty mediocre fare this week. (Fear not, though, for Glorious Goodwood is next week!)

At Catterick, there is a pretty strong draw bias towards high numbers, and a rag with a squeak is Northern Candy in the 4.20. He's only had four runs, gets weight (for age and claiming price) from most of these, and has the best of the draw.

His best run was last time, and might improve enough to hit the board at around 50/1. In a race full of professional losers, I'd rather tickle at an unexposed one than plunge on the favourite.

Elsewhere, and the Laying System selections today are:

Catterick 5.50 Rare Coincidence
Leicester 6.45 Art Master

Let's hope for a change of fortune on what, thus far, has been a pretty miserable week in that department.

As promised, later I'll be posting the introductory synopsis for a little alternative form study series I'm writing. Warning: if you don't like my verbosity, look away now... (or at least then).

For now, ciao
Matt

Ugh, Too Much Vino. I Have A Terrible Hangover...

Wow, I woke up this morning feeling sick to the pit of my stomach, dear reader. My head hurts and I don't really know what day it is.

All I can remember is flirting outrageously with someone who, in the cold light of day, was clearly taking advantage of my good nature and advanced state of inebriation.

I am, of course, talking metaphorically about my worship of the false god who is Vinokourov. The man who was single-handedly building a Tour legend at this year's event has failed (or should it be passed, if you are positive?) a blood test.

The test revealed that he had "old and new red blood cells" in his system on Saturday, the day of his monumental time trial success. This means he must have had a transfusion that day. If he rode like he had the power of two men, that's because he did.

Blood doping, for those who don't know, enables the body to take on extra red blood cells. These are the ones that carry oxygen round the body and sustain a rider's stamina.

Vino is no sporting idol. He is just another cheat in a sport riddled with them. As I suggested in my preview, perhaps cycling was the fairest sport of all because they were all cheating. I had also intimated that that perspective was outmoded and that the sport was entering a cleaner era.

It seems this is not the case. Vino's blatant flouting of the rules, allied to Sinkewitz (the T Mobile rider) already being sent home for testing positive for testosterone, and the growing raincloud of doubt over the head of Tour leader Michael Rasmussen, and the ongoing case against last year's winner, Floyd Landis, make this arguably the darkest of many dark days for recent Tour history.

Indeed, for Rasmussen it has emerged that he did not just receive two warnings, but four, for failing to notify the drug authorities of his whereabouts. Three warnings is supposed to count as a positive drug test and a ban should ensue.

The authorities now have the extremely embarrassing situation where this year's and last year's Tour winners may be thrown out retrospectively.

I don't know what to write, or to make of the current situation. I still love the sport, like I still love a drink. But sometimes when I wake up with a terrible hangover, I just feel I never want to drink again.

Even when there is a party that day, such as the sporting fiesta that is Stage 16 of the Tour today. 218.5km of fearsome climbs and descents: the toughest stage of the Tour. And the question everyone will be asking is, "Who's clean?".

TdF: R.I.P.

Sombre Matt

An Inauspicious Start for the Laying System...

The secret of great comedy, as you may know dear reader, is..... *checks watch, and counts to fifteen*.... timing.

As is the secret to launching a great product.

In the micro-economy of the past two days, the laying system has had the proverbial stinker. No matter, for bloodied but not unbowed, we continue: the mission now is to climb the (small category 4) hill back to level stakes, then push on.

Ainama hacked up today, making two big priced winning (and therefore losing) lays in two days.

The nature of any approach is that it will have good and bad turns. As long as the rationale is solid, the method will out.

In this case, I'm conscious that the method is somewhat translucent to you currently, so over the course of the next few days, I'm going to share with you the key elements that I look for in a (hopefully) losing horse.

Its no secret that I look to lay Racing Post favourites. A glance at the history of the qualifiers will show you that.

But there are a number of other factors which inform my decisions: primarily, pace, speed and class.

Now you may or may not know what these mean, and you cannot know what they mean specifically in the context of my interpretation.

But, starting later today, you'll get an inkling into my thoughts and then, irrespective of the results in the short term, I hope that you'll appreciate the consideration that frames the choices.

Enough already, and on with the show... tomorrow, I'll introduce my overall mindset, which is to try to find a different approach than the traditional 'pounds and lengths' scales of collateral form study which, frankly, I've always found at best ethereal (and at worst, downright misleading).

Then, on Thursday, I'll touch on why I think traditional British form study is due for retirement (in the main), before continuing next week with a look at the triumvirate of 'newfangled' tools: pace, class and speed. (Actually, as some / many of you will know, they're not new at all, and have been evolving nicely for decades Stateside without really taking off in a major way here... yet!)

More later.
Matt

Raise A Glass To Vino...

Well, dear reader, it seems I was foolish and premature (not the first time I've been either of those two things!) in writing off the inimitable Kazakh, Alexandre Vinokourov.

After smashing the field to pieces on Saturday in the 'contre le montre', he wilted like a badly wilting wilty thing on Sunday in the Pyrenees.

But the man with more stitches in his knees than I have in my jimjams made a superlative comeback of Lazarus proportions yesterday, again riding away from the field, and descending down a mountain path at 60mph to score his second stage victory of the race.

Having lost about half an hour on Sunday, he is now no threat to the overall lead in the race and, with a rest day today, it's far from impossible that he could win the last mountain stage tomorrow. Certainly, the main players for the overall title will not chase him, and none of the other riders can live with him in the form he showed yesterday.

Furthermore, on Saturday, there is the second and final time trial, for which he must again be favourite.

And, as if four possible stage wins wasn't enough, he has previously won the final stage on the Champs Elysee, an event traditionally collared by a sprinter.

What a bizarre situation it would be if a rider won five stages of the Tour, and yet still didn't finish in the top 20 overall!

I have nothing but admiration for this guy, for the way he has refused to give up, and has fought on with honour and humility. He is the ultimate sportsman for me right now. 'Chapeau', as they say in France. (Or 'hats off', as we might say).

Onto racing, and wouldn't you just know it... As I launch the trial of my laying system, so we get smacked in the chops with an 11/2 winner. No matter, a few points loss on the day, but the overall pattern is positive, and let's see where we are come the end of the week.

Today's lays are:

Yarmouth	Tonnante
Yarmouth	Ainama

(Incidentally, Tonnante was one of my alternative ten to follow for the season, so I have mixed feelings about that one! You can read about the other mutts I tipped up here.)

On the punting front, Neil Callan did indeed plough Beverley's near side rail yesterday as hoped (and many others followed him), and he prevailed by a comfortable margin for a nice 10/3 winner for me and TrainerFlatStats punters too.

Over at Windsor, my bet of the day - Marozi - fared less well, coming in a well outpointed 4th. He travelled like a winner until the business end of the race, but found nought. Disappointing, and I suspect he may be a much better horse on sand. It wouldn't surprise me to see this one race in the States before the season is out. He's certainly bred for it.

I can't find anything worth backing today, so - like my friends at the Tour - I shall have a rest day. It's high time I did some work!

Pip pip!
Matt

Do NOT Sign Up For Laying System... Yet!

Quick update, dear reader, to request that you hold fire on signing up for Laying System trial just yet.

There are three reasons for this:

1. I've cocked up the subscribe buttons (thanks to Roger for letting me know)!

2. I'll be putting the selections on here this week so you get a 'bonus' week's trial if you like.

3. I'll also be offering my loyal Nag readers a better price than the official site.

Cheers
Matt

That Was The Weekend That Was

Wow! What an amazing sporting weekend, dear reader.

Even my seasonal sickness subsided in awe of the televisual treats served up over the last two days.

For me the highlights were the Tour (of course), where Vino first proved he was superhuman by slamming the entire field in the time trial, and then proved he was all too human by self-combusting in the Pyrenees. As predicted in my preview, he had a rush of blood on Saturday and didn't save enough for the following days. His race is now run. (My stage tips Cancellara and Kloden both fell in the time trial, Canc twice!)

The first Pyrenean stage yesterday found out many more than just Vinokourov though. Indeed, by the end of the stage, the race was (and is) now down to three riders realistically. They are the impressive Dane Michael Rasmussen, Spanish wonderkid Alberto Contador, and gritty Aussie Cadel Evans.

I've backed Contador and Evans to win, and Evans for top 3 and top 6 finishes. At the moment, those bets look ok (I also backed Iban Mayo to win - ahem), but I'm worried about the continued impressive form shown by Rasmussen.

Today will be another real test for the protagonists, and I expect Contador to take time off Rasmussen. He looked really fresh when winning yesterday, and he can explode away up a mountain like few others. The question is how much time he can steal - he won't be able to go too early, so it will again be fascinating to watch.

For Evans, he just needs to hang in there for as long as possible, knowing that he can get at least some time back in the time trial on Saturday but - to be honest - I'll be happy to see him finish on the podium.

Elsewhere, the Open served up a treat to finish, as my man Sergio lost his putting touch and choked away his chance of a Major. I'd traded out to lock in some money (something I usually do these days, and something I recommend everyone does - its better to have some cash than be greedy and risk losing the lot, as Sergio and a million before him have proved).

Garcia played ok yesterday, and probably didn't deserve his over par score. Harrington was superb, and you could see what it meant to him. He said after the event that if he'd lost (having found water TWICE on the last hole), he might never have played again. I believe him too.

Great guy, and a great player, and - finally - a European winner. Hats off!

In the GP at Nurburgring, Lewis Hamilton could only manage 9th after his nasty smash in qualifying. Partial relief came for him in the fact that Alonso, and not Raikkonen (who was on a hat-trick), won the race. Indeed, the Finn failed to finnish (geddit?!). Alonso is now Hamilton's closest rival.

The title looks very interesting now, with just 11 points between the top three. Personally, I think Hamilton will not win, but should still be feted for an amazing debut season. His future is golden, and the experience of crashing on Saturday will surely serve him well in the future.

Cricket, and KP's cracking innings (again) put England in the plum seat against the Indians. Our favourite South African really is a master with the bat and even I like to watch him play - not many cricketers can lay claim to that! (Of course, he's a fine Hampshire man these days too, my adopted county on the basis that Dorset are about the worst Minor Counties side imaginable).

All of the above was a veritable cornucopia of sporting spectacles. The horse racing was another damp squib, with the pick of it rained off. The exception was an incredible little filly called Turbo Linn.

I've laid her in her last two races now, and she's cocked a snook in my direction on both occasions. She's quick, and she's on the upgrade. Having started life running in bumpers around the gaffs, she has improved a ton this season, and who knows how good she is? A tilt at the Irish St Leger is mooted next, and I'll think twice before laying her a third time...!

Today, they race at Beverley again, and the soft ground may lead to some of the runners tacking over near side again. There seems to be a strip of ground closest to the stands rail that more than justifies the excursion over there, in that its a good bit faster than the rest of the track.

I'll be keeping an eye out for Melalchrist tonight. He's drawn 1 of 10, and I just wonder whether his jockey, Neil Callan, will veer left from the stalls, and try to make a solo sprint for the cash. (Knowing jockeys, who are usually reluctant to venture away from the crowd, I suspect not).

I'd be very interested to hear from any regular Beverley racegoers, who may have an opinion on the draw and - particularly - the merit of going stands side on soft ground.

My system has thrown up a plethora of horses to lay today, and you can see these - and indeed its historical performance since I started tracking it - here:

http://www.laying-system.com

After a corrective few days, I'm expecting the upward trend to resume this week, and I'll be posting the selections here for your edification.

Over at Windsor tonight, where low numbers have the call in soft ground sprints, I really fancy the unexposed Marozi. I think Michael Jarvis is an excellent trainer, and this horse's soft ground second last season looks good enough in the context of this race.

Given that many of the horses he beat that day are now rated higher than his mark of 80, and that he also has a Group 1 entry, he looks a generous price at around 7/4 at betfair. I was expecting this horse to be trading at around even money against pretty exposed opposition.

Maybe I'll have the proverbial albumen on physiognomy (or egg on face, if you will) later, but I reckon this is a standout wager. The slight cautionary temperance is that getting stuck in on a Monday is generally not a good idea, in my experience. Nevertheless, I'll fight my early week reticence on this occasion.

Keep your powder (mostly) dry!
Matt

Contre Le Montre...

Rejoice dear reader, for today the Tour picture becomes clearer. Today the riders will not race against each other, but rather they will race against the clock (in French, literally, contre le montre).

And in so doing, when no man can ask his teammates for support, or to chase a breakaway down, or to slow a rider who has scurried up a mountain, the men will become separated from the boys.

Except that in this race, they are all men. So it might be more correct to say the supermen will be separated from the men.

Semantic pedantics aside, and there are only a few with serious aspirations of winning today's stage. For many others, notably Michael Rasmussen, but also Alberto and Alejandro (that's Contador and Valverde to you), the day will be about damage limitation.

These guys know that Andreas Kloden will take time from them. They also fear that Cadel Evans and, to a lesser extent, Alex Vinokourov will distance themselves in the General Classement.

For Rasmussen, who is a mediocre time triallist, the biggest challenge will be to retain the golden jersey at day's end.

Kloden is but 3 minutes 50 seconds back, Evans just 2' 41" behind the Great Dane. Both could surpass Rasmussen today.

That said, rumours of Razz's demise may prove somewhat premature, as - although he isn't the best TT'er by any stretch of the imagination - he has something to really fight for this time, and he'll surely not have the luck that saw him crash twice in last year's TT event.

Today, though, he'll be delighted to lose just two minutes. He'll be happy to lose three minutes, and he'll likely not be too disappointed to lose three and a half minutes.

His biggest problem is that this is the first of two contre le montre's in this year's race, and he'll not be allowed to get away in the Pyrenees as he was in the Alps. For me, Rasmussen's chance of the overall victory is slim.

I expect there to be only a couple of GC contenders to come up smelling of roses today: Kloden and Evans.

Vino, despite his hugely admirable battling qualities (lesser men would long since have headed home), will try for a big ride today, but his knees are bloodied and stitched and - in truth - so is his will.

For all that I think Klodie and Cadel will enhance their overall prospects today, I don't necessarily think they will win the stage. It's worth remembering that Kloden has never won a Tour stage, but has finished second four times.

Today may be his maiden victory, but I'd rather side with a couple of others, namely Fabian Cancellara and Denis Menchov.

The first named is a TT specialist, having won the prologue in this race by a wide margin, and also the World TT Championship. His price of 6/4 reflects that, and - although those odds are skinny - he must be in the first two, bar a fall.

Menchov is a nag of an altogether blacker caste (that's a dark horse, my friends!). He is an excellent clock racer, and came into the Tour as the team leader for Rabobank before being usurped by his mountaineering mate, Michael (of the Rasmussen clan).

This man is a mean TT'er and has a point to prove. 100/1 is a standout price on a guy with a genuine chance. Back him each way and you could easily be picking up a 25/1 payout for a place, perhaps better.

After a dismal run of trying to pick stage winners, I'm confident I have the first five home today.

So here we go:

1. Cancellara
2. Kloden
3. Menchov
4. Evans
5. Vinokourov (or maybe Kashechkin)

Time will tell. Quite literally today.

Matt

The Death Knell For Betex Profits... And Some Spiky Friday Fun

Today's final cycle in the six cycle set for Betex Profits (remember, I had two goes on Monday) has yet again taken its muddy knees to the early bath, this time on the second leg of five.

Below I've repeated much of my preview from the start of the week, but now of course it is updated with this week's experiences.

"The sales blurb says Jason Chesters (the author) now works one hour a day and makes £1000 a week. Well, if that was to be true, I wanted a slice of it! Alas, for all the hype, this pudding failed to rise. Indeed, I suspect the pudding mix was bereft of yeast... metaphorically speaking of course.

So what is Betting Exchange Profits (BEP), and how does it work? BEP is a 66 page ebook, which outlines the system and then goes into detail with examples of how it works.

I can now say with a degree of certainty that the things I found not to my liking in the guide are just plain wrong, as follows:

- I don't agree with Jason's contention that racing is fixed (except in a miniscule subset of races. This belief is peddled by losers looking for a scapegoat, rather than looking at their own betting habits).

- Crucially, the method and examples do not account for betting commission on winning trades. This difference of 5% per trade is especially important with an approach such as the one mooted here, where winnings from one trade are rolled onto a series of further trades.

- In the examples, Jason breaks a number of his own rules, such as price thresholds. This implies that the 'system' is interpretable. I never like systems that are not absolute and categorical in their ruleset.

- The obvious system bet was discounted in one race in favour of another - less obvious - qualifier. The obvious horse lost and the other won.

- In suggesting the system will also work on sports, notably football, Jason suggests that you can use it blindly backing short favourites. For me, this will guarantee a trip to the poor house.

So... I was rightly pessimistic about the chances of this guide.

The nature of the system is that you need to monitor the pre-race market in the ten minutes leading up to the races to identify strong trends either for or against a given horse.

If you remember, I was looking for a series of five or six horses, which the author calls a 'cycle', and the cycle is one part of a set. So, basically, each day is one cycle of five (or seven if you work weekends) days (and therefore five cycles) in a week. The full five or seven cycles will be a set.

Based on the odds of the horses in the races, and their fluctuations prior to the races, you are urged to either back or lay outright or for a place. You should only select one horse per race, and you are trying to get five or six winners in a row (be they place lays, win only, or any of the other combinations).

I started with a notional £100 for each cycle and tried to increase it through the five races in the cycle. If I achieved this, I would stop and take my profit.

The theory is that one winner in the set (i.e. the series of cycles this week) will pay for losing days. So, I'm certainly not expecting every day to be a winning day, and indeed I wondered if we would have any winning days.

Jason reckons that in a seven day set, if you're looking to get six in a row for a cycle, you should be able to consistently get two a week up. On that basis, between now and Friday I'm expecting at least one winning day in my quest for five up.

As it turned out, the first day saw me blow out on the first race. Whilst the system doesn't say you should do this, I went straight back in again, and lo and behold, but if it didn't deliver a winning cycle.

So Monday went -£100, then +£318.87, for a profit of £218.87.
Tuesday, went down on the 3rd leg of 5.
Wednesday, down on the 1st leg of 5.
Thursday, down on the second leg of 5.
And today, after Aaron's Way finished third after I'd laid it for a place, the system went down on the 2nd leg.

Total loss on the week is a notional £181.13.

Indeed, were it not for me breaching the system rules myself and 'going back to the well' on Monday, it would have been a -£500 week.

This system is framed exclusively around the market and, as such, is way too simplistic in my opinion to be successful in the long term.

I didn't like the writer's style, I don't like the system content, and I give this system a 'Not Recommended' mark.

Next week, we'll be looking at another laying product for mostly short priced horses, this time a tipster service, rather than a system.

____________________________

Now onto Friday Fun... and, as promised, a touch of Spike Milligan. It's quite silly stuff and maybe not for everyone, but researching this has brought a smile to my fevered features today, so please bear with me if its not your bagatelle... :)

From Spike's War Memoirs: Diary: Feb 28

Torrential rain. Trench flooded.

Contacted Gun Position.
MILLIGAN: Hello! Tell Sergeant Dawson I need a relief.
GUN POSITION: Who do you want?
M: Paulette Goddard
GP: What will be her duties?
M: Me.

The rain. Not only did it come down, it went up 6 feet, and then came down a second time.

"It's good for the crops", said MacArthur.
"I haven't got any", I said.
"I have. I've got a hundred acres in Somerset and three hundred in Canada".
"It's not raining there."
"I know", he said, pacing up and down. "And its very very worrying..."

Goblins, 1978

I'm a Goblin Tommy Cooper,
I can do tricks with a hat,
I can walk upside down with a barrow
So they've made me a Water Rat.

I can juggle with seventy skittles
Dive through a rubber tyre
I can sleep on the bottom of the Channel,
Did somebody call me a liar?

I'm a Goblin Tommy Cooper,
I fly round the room on a mat,
You ask me how I do it,
I'll tell you, "Just like that".


Soldier, Soldier 1987

There was a little soldier
Who went off to the war
To serve the King,
Which is the thing
That soldiers are made for.

But then that little soldier
Was blown to bits, was he.
All for his King
He did this thing:
How silly can you be?

Contagion: 1959

Elephants are contagious!
Be careful how you tread.
An elephant that's been trodden on
Should be confined to bed!

Leopards are contagious too.
Be careful tiny tots.
They don't give you a temperature
But lots and lots - of spots.

The Herring is a lucky fish,
From all disease inured.
Should he be ill when caught at sea:
Immediately - he's cured!

Off back to my bed now, with a small grin on my face :)

Matt

Feeling Peaky

So it's Friday, and the weekend is once more upon us. Thoughts turn to lie ins, bacon, newspapers, and hours of TV sport... But I'm cooped up in my bed.

I had a headache most of yesterday, and the three 'medicinal' Guinnesses I had last evening didn't alleviate the problem, nor has a good kip. So its official - I've got a lurgy.

At least there's plenty to watch on the telly (right now, for instance, I'm 'enjoying' Sergio self destruct in his second round at the Open).

As for the horses, based on the weather outside here (p1551ng down), I'd expect Newbury to be abandoned.

Over at Nottingham, there's not much to get inspired by, so I'll take that theme and work it by having a look at the 3.20, a 15 runner seller(!).

Maybe its the bugs, maybe its the drugs, but I reckon there are a couple of 50/1 shots in here that are not without a chance.

In a race where few have ever won, still less having won on turf, Prince du Soleil would be an ironic winner in this weather. This horse actually won at Saint-Cloud and Maisons-Lafitte for Pascal Bary back in the last century, but has been regressive since, and hasn't even run for two years.

However, he loves the mud and - in fairness - there aren't too many poorer races around than this. For minimal units, he might give us a fun run.

I can't have the favourite, Ruby Legend, as I don't think he'll go in the ground. That said, he's got Spencer in the plate, and it's not impossible he'll win despite hating the underfoot.

My other rag for the race is Travelling Band. Another who hasn't seen a racetrack for ages (this time 426 days), he won a nice Haydock novice hurdle in 2003 on soft going, and is worth a tiny tickle against a shocking bunch of donkeys.

What the BHB are doing serving up this kind of dirge on a Friday at a reasonably high class track is beyond me. But there we are.

Of the (relatively) unexposed ones in the race, Snake Hips ran his best race on soft two starts back, and should be competitive here.

I don't have any strong lay fancies, though my system has thrown up a few which are too big for me to oppose: Red Chairman, Hazelnut, and the aforementioned Ruby Legend, as well as Circle of Love at Newbury, should it get the thumbs up.

Over at the Tour, and a strange stage yesterday: what should have been a relatively easy day was made an end to end gallop by the Astana team (that of Messrs Vinokourov and Kloden) assuming control at the front of the peloton and putting the hammer down.

The tactic is, I reckon, designed to empty the legs of some of Vino and Klodie's rivals ahead of the first time trial tomorrow. Its an interesting strategy, and one that might just work. Certainly, Christophe Moreau, the big French hope was dropped yesterday and waved his 'maillot jaune reve' (yellow jersey dream, for the non-Francophiles) goodbye.

I wonder if they'll continue with the high tempo today... Stage 12, for that's how far we've come, is not that simple, containing as it does three Category 4 climbs and - near the finish - a Category 2 hillock.

I reckon that again the usual three must be followed: Voigt, Gilbert and Casar, but I also wouldn't rule out a sprint finish, in which case I'll side with Hushovd and Pozzato. I've lost all confidence in my ability to pick stage winners, so between the five of these guys, I'll risk all of ten pounds..!

Finally, I'll be putting Betting Exchange Profits through its paces for the last time, and reporting on its overall performace later. I'll also bring you some Friday Fun, from the late great Spike Milligan, so stay tuned!

Matt

Free Golf Bets Plus The Demise Of Betex Profits?

A quick update on the day's action so far.

The golf has started well for me, and I've already traded out of my interest wagers, leaving me with free bets to win a few quid. (Click the image to be able to actually see it!!)







Elsewhere, and Betting Exchange Profits continues on the wane. A loser on the second leg of today's cycle means the system is now showing a loss of £81.13 on the week, and I have nothing but fear about the long term potential of this system.

My review will appear tomorrow, but suffice it to say, I won't be recommending you dive for a copy...

The Tour continues to confound. One of my guys, Gilbert, managed to get into a break, but it didn't last and the sprint was won by Robbie Hunter. He's a hardy perennial sprinter, but this was his maiden stage victory in the race. Good luck to him!

On the nags front, I've managed to get Rare Coincidence beaten; Lavender Moon was a non-runner; and I still have Pentatonic trying to get me back. Fingers crossed one or more pass Penta.

All this and a strong start in the cricket for England, and a decent innings for Vaughan to boot. Pity the rain will render this a drawn rubber.

Back tomorrow with some more horses to oppose, maybe a couple to back, a final review of Betting Exchange Profits, and some Friday Fun. Oh, and who knows?, I might even find the stage winner in the Tour. But don't hold your breath!!!

Matt

The (Sporting) Weekend Starts Here!

Good morning dear reader once again, from my comfy sofa in Hackney and, as I watch the golf on TV, I am dribbly-mouthed at the sporting action in prospect from now until Sunday.

Not only has The Open Golf Championship started this morning, with the Tigger bidding for three Open pots in a row, but also the Tour will be ratcheted up still further with the first distance time trial on Saturday, followed by a return to the mountains (this time the Pyrenees) on Sunday.

Throw in the 1st Test against India, for those of you who enjoy cricket (personally, I'm only interested when the prospect of a touch of Aussie-baiting arises - apologies to some of my Antipodean readers!); the European Grand Prix from the Nurburgring will get the petrol heads greased up (though, again, not for me - I can't even drive!); and there is cracking racing action from Newbury.

But it doesn't even stop there. There is also the amazing Speedway World Championships from Poland.... OK, OK, I'm labouring the point now, but you catch my drift.

My advice is to grab some tinnies (or tea bags, whatever is your poison), stock up on TV dinners, get the shopping / DIY / dogwalking done very early, and prey for rain, so that your sports viewing edification is unhindered by other demands from the cherished ones around you.

I love to watch golf with a bet on - I'm a terrible golfer (and I mean terrible), but I've historically been a fair punter. Armed with the golf betting bible, Elliott's Golf Form (if you bet on golf, you should have this book), I've found more than my fair share of winners in the past.

Alas, this year, I decided I didn't have the time to do it any more, and I've missed it. So my tips for the Open this time are pretty uninformed, but I'll offer you them nevertheless.

I have gone for experienced guys who know how to win on the European Tour. My three off the tee are: Retief Goosen, Michael Campbell and Sergio Garcia.

I don't have time either to share with you their stats / my rationale for following them, but these are the trio that will carry my interest wagers this weekend.

Onto more common ground now, and yesterday's racing saw the Betting Exchange Profits system go down on the first leg again, when Dresden Doll, whom I'd backed for a place, failed to get in the first half dozen.

The system still stands at +£18.87 in its trial, so I can't be too unkind about it (yet), and we'll see today whether it goes into positive or negative equity. More on that later.

My own little lay system is gathering pace: after a very promising start, 12th July saw it pick out four winners from ten selections (including 6/1 and 7/2 shots) to eat into my profits quite a bit.

Since then however, it's picked 19 losers out of 20, including 2/1, 7/4, 5/4, 6/5 and 4/5 favourites.

I am still playing around with the system criteria a little, as I'm not a big fan of laying horses at anything bigger than 3/1 or thereabouts. This, of course, means I'll probably find more winners, but there will be less pain associated with their prevalence on the podium.

More on this as the data gathers - for info, I have seven qualifiers today, and I am due a revers after 19 successful from 20. [Always keep in mind, "After a good run, expect a bad run. After a bad run, expect a good run."] Incidentally, there are not normally seven or ten qualifiers. The average is nearer three or four, which I find considerably more manageable.

The short ones in my septet for today are Rare Coincidence, Lavender Moon and Pentatonic, so we'll see. Frankly, though, I'm braced for a 'correction'. The overall pattern of losers to winners remains extremely promising and - at close of play yesterday - I'm £592 up for £20 units since 28th May (with all expenses accounted for).

On to Le Tour and, after getting two of my five against the field yesterday into the final breakaway quintet (Sandy Casar 50/1 and Jens Voigt 25/1), I was disappointed to watch Casar mistime his sprint by the minimum margin and finish second. I only put a couple of quid on each but, much more annoyingly, I'm still awaiting my first stage win of the race.

Sandy Casar, in white and in front, albeit a few metres after the line... Bugger.





Today, the peloton will cycle due west along the south coast of France, from Marseille to Montpellier. The course is mostly flat, but there will be meteorological challenges aplenty.

The forecast is for a scorcher, and the heat will be combined with strong coastal breezes, which will likely see the riders form arrow shaped echelons as they race. It's all about aerodynamism and is a great spectacle. I'll try to bring a picture of it tomorrow if I can source one.

To the winner today... yeah, like I know - I can't pick my nose! The betting has the sprinters to the fore, with Boonen at the top of the market (around 4/1 on betfair). I'm not sure the group will be together for a sprint finish.

However, as insurance, I'll take my sprinter, Thor Hushovd, at a little over 8/1 in case it is a bunch finish. It's worth remembering that, despite his daily skinny odds, Boonen only won one stage last year, and has only won one stage this year. Hushovd won two last year, and has also picked up one this year. He's strong and may prevail if it becomes a cavalry charge for the line.

If it's to be a breakaway, the usual suspects (Voigt, Casar) will be spent forces after yesterday, so I'll side with a couple of my normal speculatives: Phillipe Gilbert (42 on betfair as I write) and Alessandro Ballan (26 on betfair).

I've nominated both previously and, as both are capable one day riders, I'll shout them again, considerably more in hope than expectation. My combined stage wager will not reach double digit quids, so you can gauge my confidence for yourself!

That's all for now. I'm off to make a cup of tea and watch a Tiger on the prowl...

Matt

Betting Exchange Profits: The Reviewer Strikes Back

It's Wednesday again, dear reader, and thus the middle of the week looms large once more. By home time tonight, it will be the slippery slope to Friday...

Before then though, much sport is to be had. And we start today with a review of the Day Two action with the Betting Exchange Profits system.

You may remember from yesterday that the system actually drew first blood. Well, strictly, it did not, but having blown out on the very first leg of the first cycle I decided to go in again, and the system came up trumps, showing a return of £418.87 for my notionally invested £200.

Yesterday, alas, the third leg saw my five part 'accer' topple when Turn And River (which I had laid for a place) took the silver medal at Beverley.

So, the running total is now +£118.87, which is still creditable and - in fairness - better than I expected. We'll have a better idea by the end of the week though, personally, I do still have serious reservations about the longer term sustainability of a system like this. We'll see.

A much better laying proposition in my opinion, and actually only a bolt-on bonus to a very good systems review newsletter, is Terry Allen's 'Betting Insider' letter. Regular readers will know I've been plugging this a fair bit recently. That's because I think it's very good, so I make no apology for that.

However, this is the last time I'll mention it in despatches. The url, if you haven't checked it out already, is:

www.thebettinginsider.com/nnn.htm

Elsewhere, at Beverley, the usually reliable draw continues to confound. Normally, high numbers hold a strong advantage, especially at sprint distances. But, currently, there are a lot of low drawn horses ploughing up the near side and obliging.

This was again the case yesterday with one exception. The sprint handicap saw the three highest drawn horses finish 1st, 3rd and 4th. Right now, Beverley is pretty much a no bet track for me, due to the unpredictability of the draw.

Saying that, I did lay Red River Rebel, beaten at 5/4 (it was one of my system horses) - but a(nother) lousy day at the Tour.

Although my overall selections for the race, Andreas Kloden and Cadel Evans, are well placed for my top 3 and top 6 wagers (touch wood), I can't seem to buy a stage win.

And today looks like being one of the hardest stages to call. With a few Category 3 and 4 climbs in quite a long stage, and with the possibility of the Mistral winds picking up on the route into Marseille, there is a strong chance of some pileups today.

After yesterday's gruelling route up the Galibier, the riders might have hoped for a little respite. But no such thing - at least, not until tomorrow.

By the way, yesterday saw Vinokourov probably wave his chance in the race goodbye. Kloden, his stated deputy in the Astana team, was finally given license to plug on ahead, seemingly a sure sign of where team allegiances are now. He looked very strong, and as though he was saving himself for the bigger battles to come.

I think he may be the most likely winner now, as his time trialling is probably the pick of the major players and he can easily pick Rasmussen off for two minutes and more in each of the two 'contre le montres'.

Back to today's stage, and it will certainly suit a one day racer type rider. There will be the usual ambitious strikers, such as Jens Voigt and Sandy Casar, plus Philippo Pozzato may finally give the dismal Italians something to cheer about. I'll have minimal stakes (i.e. £2!) on each, but I think there are a couple of Brits with a sneaky chance today, if yesterday's fine performances have not left their mark.

Reformed drug cheat, Robert Millar, has the ideal 'game' for a stage like this, but he was seen on the front of the chase group yesterday, working quite hard for team leader, Iban Mayo.

The other Brit rider with a squeak is half-Finnish Charlie Wegelius. He finished just 6 minutes and 44 seconds back yesterday to prove his ability to ride the big peaks, and is sufficiently distant on the 'classement' for the leaders not to bat an eyelid if he escapes the peloton.

His team, Liquigas, have done nothing to this point, so he may well strike for a long shot win and, at least, some publicity for the sponsors. Again, tiny stakes, but I might even get £4 on this boy.

Just a quick final point, as a result of an email from a reader yesterday. The adverts for systems on the left hand side of the page are from google. I have not chosen these (except the one for satellite tv via internet, which I think is pretty cool - its in the 3rd frame down), and I cannot vouch for the accuracy of the claims nor the integrity of the product owners.

The only products I specifically sanction are on my 'Premium Systems' page. As regular readers know, each of these is reviewed and graded, having been trialled here first.

Do please continue to click on the links to the left (I get a few beans from google each time you do that, and it helps to 'keep the lights on' for the blog), but - if you're interested in a product, make sure you can get a refund if anything goes awry.

[Note, all products that you can buy via Clickbank automatically provide for refunds. You apply for this from Clickbank themselves, rather than the product author].

I hope that's helpful, and good luck with your Wednesday wagers. I'll be trying to get Robscarvic and Bucharest beaten. Feel a little twitchy about that particular eventuality...
Matt

Various Racing Despatches

Good morning again, dear reader, and a veritable mixed bag for you today.

First up, a quick review of yesterday. I managed to get Fourteenth beaten, which takes my own little laying system (in the latter stages of trial) to 113 losers from 139 selections (over 81% beaten).

Average winning odds around 11/4, and profit to £20 level stakes (with betfair over odds at 16% and 5% commission accounted for) is currently £478. More on this in due course.

This week's guest system is Betting Exchange Profits and, after I poohpoohed it in my introduction, it responded in the best possible way, by thumbing its nose at me and showing a profit on the day of £218. Hmm... Let's see how it performs today.

Finally on the laying systems front, just a quick reminder that you can still take advantage of Terry Allen's (overly?) generous offer of his system (one winning bet from one yesterday) for free when you subscribe to his newsletter - there's a sample copy available at

http://www.thebettinginsider.com/nnn.htm

or you can read my review of the system's performance on the Premium Systems page from the banner at the top of this page.

(Incidentally, if you want to know about the calibre of writing in the newsletter, I should mention that I am a contributor. This may or may not influence your decision to check out the sample copy!!!!)

Onwards, and a regular reader and emailer, Keith Benson, has passed me news of a racing syndicate he has, which may be of interest to some readers.

Keith has a small stud operation based in Yorkshire, and he is affiliated with the trainer, Noel Wilson, also based at Flaxton, near York.

He currently has shares available in a smashing Captain Rio filly called Joint Agency. Interestingly, and Keith didn't mention this, but I note she has two entries for next week (21st July), so you might be able to witness her debut as an owner!

Anyway, enough from me on this, except to say that I've always loved the thrill of ownership, from my early days when I was one of over 100,000 involved in the cracking Elite Racing Club partnership, to now when I am a tenth part-owner of Rapid City, a winner of three races (and placed twice more) from seven starts for us. I was also lucky enough to own a twelfth of the legendary (at least in the circles I move in!) Love's Design, a winner of no less than seven races in our colours.

More information can be found in Keith's newsletter, which I've reproduced here:

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/NWRNewsletter.htm

Any questions, please contact Keith direct on the details at the bottom of the newsletter.

Despatches now complete, we move onto today's action, and for me, I'm happy to pass on the jockeys on quadrupeds and instead focus on the jockeys on bicycles.

This year's Tour is extremely cunning in construction as, I think for the first time ever, the average gradient of the climbs increases with each mountain stage.

So after the relative breeze of Saturday, followed by Michael Rasmussen's statement of intent on Sunday, his excellent solo climb in many ways reminiscent of the late great Marco Pantani (another very sad loss to the sport), the action is ratcheted up a sprocket or two today.

After the rest day yesterday, there is guaranteed to be more carnage in the peloton, as the stage starts with the first Hors Categorie ('Out of Category', which I believe I referred to as Horse Categorie in a previous post - had the nags on the brain!) of this year's bikefest.

These are buggers, and today they start with one, and pretty much end with one. Those 'lucky' pedalers will have just over 40 km's of uphill on the itinery today, and the forecast is for very hot weather.

If you have a chance to look at Eurosport today, I would encourage you to do it. There's something slightly sadistic about viewing this kind of sporting spectacle and I find it much more to my tastes than the rather bass puerility of pugilism (apologies to boxing fans, just not typically my bag) and, possibly, more physically demanding of the combatants.

I expect the field of possible overall race winners to be much reduced after a very tough stage, but finding today's stage winner is likely no easy task.

The reason for this is that the last 35km or so are downhill, which means that a lone breakaway rider could well open up a time gap early on and stay clear, as long as he is no threat to the overall race lead.

Rasmussen will surely not be allowed the length of leash that has made him a genuine Tour contender (though his pathetic time trialling will add a touch of reality to that claim on Saturday, in my opinion). Any move by the Great Dane will be covered by all serious aspirants for this year's maillot jaune, so long as they can stay with him.

Interestingly, the stage route today meanders (if that's the right term for a road that straddles three very large Alps!) along the French-Italian border, and this may be a day when a strong Italian climber who is no threat to the overall classification strikes a bid for glory.

There are a few contenders: Cristian Moreni, Dario Cioni, and Alessandro Ballan are all triple figure odds and, of the trio, perhaps Ballan (160 on betfair at time of writing), the winner of the Trois Jours De La Panne and the Tour of Flanders this year, can embellish his impressive portfolio still further.

All of the big boys are atop the stage market, but I reckon a rider like Ballan - who is more than half an hour behind on the general classification - may get clear. Forza Azzurri! (as they say, down my way...)

It is interesting to note how many strong riders from Spain there are this year and, while I reckon most will be saving themselves for a bid nearer the Basque territory in the Pyrenees, the 11/8 offered by Sportingodds for a Spanish rider to win the stage is a little tempting (if also a little short in what can be something of an 'educated crapshoot').

Savour today's stage if you have a chance - Eurosport have put together a real A Team, with the best presenter in TV sport, James Richardson, joined by 1987 Tour winner Sean Roche (if anyone knows how these boys are feeling, he does), and the legendary and fabulously eccentric 'Duffers' (David Duffield).

There is real banter in the studio and real drama on the roads, so today promises to be a very entertaining afternoon in front of the gogglebox. Bring it on!!

More later...
Matt

Betting Exchange Profits: Will I Have To Eat My Words? Day One Review

Well, I had a bad feeling and, after the first qualifying horse I chose failed to do what was required, I had an even worse feeling...

But I don't give up that easily. So I started another cycle, and... it collected!

After losing my first notional £100 on Rose N Alice, the below is what happened next:

Date	Course	Horse	Bet Type	Odds	Stake	Win	Total Return	result
16-Jul	Ayr	Davaye	Place Lay	1.25	£100.00	£23.75	£123.75	won
16-Jul	N Abbot	Classic Clover	Place Lay	1.28	£123.75	£32.92	£156.67	won
16-Jul	Ayr	Artless	Place Back	1.4	£156.67	£59.53	£216.20	won
16-Jul	N Abbot	Mr Tim	Place Back	1.5	£216.20	£102.70	£318.90	won
16-Jul	Ayr	Elkhorn	Lay	4	£318.90	£99.97	£418.87	won

So, on the day, I'd wagered a notional £200, and returned £418.87 after commissions, for a profit of £218.87.

Resisting the temptation to continue the run looks likely to be a challenge with this system but, when it's pretend money at least, I'm happy to cut and run at this point.

I'm not quite ready yet for the consumption of humble pie, but first blood goes to the system.

Tune in tomorrow to see what happens next...!

Matt

Betting Exchange Profits System Preview: I Have A Bad Feeling About This One...

Good morning dear reader, and I trust these words find you refreshed and invigorated after the weekend.

As regular readers will know, one of the objectives of this site is to honestly and fairly appraise horse racing systems in 'real time', i.e. I put up the selections ahead of racing, and we see how they go.

I've pretty much only reviewed lay systems to date, which have mostly done well (I guess its far easier to pick losers than winners - in the short term at least). If you've missed any of those reviews, you can see them at:

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/premiumsystems.html

I've also included a few pointers there about what they are, who they're primarily pitched at, and whether in my opinion they offer value for money.

Today, I'm going to start a week long trial of a system called 'Betting Exchange Profits'. It's not a particularly new system to the market, but it has been extensively promoted on google, and I am interested to see if the reality matches the promotion hype.

The sales blurb says Jason Chesters (the author) now works one hour a day and makes £1000 a week. Well, if that's true, I want a slice of it!

So what is Betting Exchange Profits (BEP), and how does it work? BEP is a 66 page ebook, which outlines the system and then goes into detail with examples of how it works.

I should say that, without wishing to prejudge its performance, I found a number of things not to my liking in the guide, as follows:

- I don't agree with Jason's contention that racing is fixed (except in a miniscule subset of races. This belief is peddled by losers looking for a scapegoat, rather than looking at their own betting habits).

- Fundamentally, the method and examples do not account for betting commission on winning trades. This difference of 5% per trade is especially important with an approach such as the one mooted here, where winnings from one trade are rolled onto a series of further trades.

- In the examples, Jason breaks a number of his own rules, such as price thresholds. This implies that the 'system' is interpretable. I never like systems that are not absolute and categorical in their ruleset.

- The obvious system bet was discounted in one race in favour of another - less obvious - qualifier. The obvious horse lost and the other won.

- In suggesting the system will also work on sports, notably football, Jason suggests that you can use it blindly backing short favourites. For me, this will guarantee a trip to the poor house.

So... I am pessimistic about the chances of this guide, but nevertheless I will give it a chance.

The nature of it is that I won't be able to put the selections up in real time, because I need to monitor the pre-race market in the ten minutes leading up to the races. But here's what I'm trying to do:

I'm looking for a series of five or six horses, which the author calls a 'cycle', and the cycle is one part of a set. So, basically, today will be one cycle of five days (and therefore five cycles) this week. The full five cycles will be a set.

Based on the odds of the horses in the races, and their fluctuations prior to the races, I will either back or lay outright or for a place. I will only select one horse per race, and I am trying to get five winners (be they place lays, win only, or any of the other combinations).

I will start with a notional £100 and try to increase it through the five races in my cycle. If I achieve this, I will stop and take my profit.

The theory is that one winner in the set (i.e. the series of cycles this week) will pay for losing days. So, I'm certainly not expecting every day to be a winning day, and indeed I wonder if we will have any winning days.

Jason reckons that in a seven day set, if you're looking to get six in a row for a cycle, you should be able to consistently get two a week up. On that basis, between now and Friday I'm expecting at least one winning day in my quest for five up.

We'll see...

I'll post the results of Day One later this afternoon, as the cycle will be complete by around 3.30pm.

Nothing to get too excited about today at the races, though on the laying front I'll probably take on Sir Michael Stoute's unexposed Fourteenth at Windsor this evening. At 13/8 or thereabouts, he looks plenty short enough, based on achievement to date. There is likely more to come, but I reckon there are other improvers in here too, so will take my chance.

Good luck, and check back later for the results of day one with Betting Exchange Profits.
Matt

Viva Las Vegas from a Centurion

As promised, dear reader, here is a quick precis of my trip to Las Vegas. This is also my 100th post to the blog, so I'm a member of the Centurion Club. There will of course be many many more to come, so thanks for your support and do keep reading!

To Vegas, and it started with someone else's bad fortune being my good fortune. At the same time that my good friend, Gavin, was winning a satellite tournament (beating 1,900 other players) to qualify for a seat at the World Series of Poker (WSoP), so his girlfriend was learning of a death in the family.

By winning the tournament, hosted by pokerstars, Gavin also qualified for $2,000 in expenses. Naturally, he would have been escorted by Sam, his girl, under normal circumstances. But, unsurprisingly, Sam didn't feel like travelling. She did however insist that Gavin travel and compete, and suggested he ask me to accompany him.

Of course, I was happy to step in despite the delicate nature of the situation.

So, last Thursday, we set off from Manchester direct to Las Vegas. bmi are aggressively targeting many of the same routes as Virgin, but from their Northern base and, on the evidence of the Vegas flights, they are a serious competitor. Beating Virgin on price by over 20%, and offering an excellent cabin service, the 10.5 hour journey passed quickly. Especially so as I managed to whack Gavin at Scrabble: beat him by 175 points at 20 cents a point!

(In fairness to Gavin, I should record that he did stop me breaking 500 for the first time in my life by getting out the turn before I could, and also won the series 3-2, though lost about 20 dollars in the final reckoning...)

We arrived early afternoon on the Thursday, and - after showering and shaving - it was time to test the tables. No early luck for Gavin, but I managed to get my first Pick 3 of the week up.

For those who don't know, a Pick 3 is like a mini-jackpot bet, where you have to correctly select the winners of three consecutive races. As it's a pool bet, the idea is that if you find one or more lively outsiders to prevail, you can collect a decent pot. My win was just over $300, which was to pay for a subset of my subsequent losers!

Later that evening, there was a major incident in the hotel we were staying in (New York New York), when a guy walked in and opened fire with a gun. He shot four people before he was taken down.

http://travel.latimes.com/articles/la-trw-vegasshooting6jul06

I'm happy to report that we had both long since retired for the evening at the time of the disturbance and awoke to watch the story on the local news. A rare incident but nevertheless the type of thing that can very easily happen in a nation that insists on continuing with its archaic 'Constitutional Right to bear arms' while not allowing its patrons to bet freely in any state.

Bizarre and indicative of the preposterous hypocrisies that are rife Stateside. As much as I love travelling there, I find some of their laws outright unfathomable.

You can own a gun without a license, but you can't place $20 on a horse, unless you live in State A, B or C. Crazy. Rant over.

The tournament format for the WSoP was that it would be played over four days. Day One would actually take place over four separate days, 1A, 1B, 1C and - you guessed it - 1D. This was because there were 7,000-odd competitors, all pitching up with the $10,000 entry fee.

Gavin was to play on the first of the four days, and did well. Despite having next to no decent cards, he managed to guard his chips sufficiently well to get through the day with slightly more than he started.

Poker legends Doyle Brunson, Amarillo Slim and a number of other past winners and poker Hall of Famers failed to clear the first hurdle, testament to the strength and depth of the assembled players.



Mike Sexton, poker star, is to the left of the dealer here. Behind him and to the left in blue shirt and baseball cap is our local hero, Gavin.

Gavin's poker playing day began at around midday and ended just after 4am the following morning. These games run and run!

Having played Friday, and with the other three day ones to follow, Gavin was not due back at the table until Tuesday, the day I flew back (not that I didn't have any faith in my man's ability to progress in the tournament or anything...!)

By that Tuesday, the initial 7,000 had been whittled down to just under 2,000, and the battle resumed in earnest. With the blinds and ante's rising steeply now, every player had to be more aggressive and those who found themselves short stacked would succumb to the 'death or glory' of the 'All In' call.

As with many before and since, this was the fate of Gavin. Holding Ace Ten, he went all in and was called by the - at the time - chip leader. 'Bigchips' had been wantonly bluffing and scaring people off with his ample stack (as it were) most of the day to this point, and had rarely had anything to show when push came to shove after the river.

Just Gavin's luck then, when he turned over Ace Queen, and won the hand. Gavin had played very well, and done brilliantly to progress to the second stage of the world's most presitigious poker tournament but, alas, the gods were not smiling on his gnomic features this time.

The temperatures in Las Vegas were 47C all week, and it was all a struggle when out of the cooling embrace of an air conditioning unit, but I rekindled my lost love for the city whilst out there, and had an absolute ball.

For those of you that are interested (and I will not be offended if there are none!), I've posted a few other photos on the site, and you can see them by clicking the links below...

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007041.jpg

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http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/vegas07/06072007054.jpg

Viva Las Vegas indeed. Which reminds me, I'm thinking of opening a strip joint on the Strip, and calling it Beaver Las Vegas! (I'm not really, I just wanted to gratuitously get that line into this post!!!)

Til 101, roger and out.
Matt

Moreau The Same on Bastille Day....

Saturday is upon us dear reader and, as such, most of us are free from those nasty Monday through Friday shackles, and can kick back and enjoy the weekend.

Spare a thought then for the poor boogers who will be toiling desperately over the next two days in searing heat, chasing each other up Alp and down dale.

But spare that thought in the knowledge that this is one of the great sporting spectacles in the calendar and, for me at least, an event not to be missed.

The festival of pain is further heightened today by the fact that it is Bastille Day in France, one of their most significant holidays.

After Friday's frog fun, it would be no surprise if the amphibian theme was maintained into today, with a 'grenouille' victory at Le Grand-Bornand (for it is there, at the base of the 1613 metre Col de la Columbiere mountain that today's stage will end).

I fancy a French winner today, and already you can have 5/2 about that, which I've availed myself of.

But who specifically? Well, my money is nailed to the tricolore of one man in particular: Christophe Moreau. The French have a proud tradition in the King of the Mountains competition with Richard Virenque a national icon despite his career being tainted with the almost ubiquitous drug smear.

Moreau was the closest challenger to last year's KotM winner, Michael Rasmussen, and will be keen to assert some pressure on the Dane on this first big day for the climbers.

At 10/1, he looks cracking value and is added to my Frenchie to win the stage wager.

To complete the punting today, I'll chuck in Rasmussen himself for a top three finish. With serious points up for grabs today, he'll not be far from the action, and - even if there is a breakaway - that still gives us a chance of collecting on the great Dane. At 13/2, he looks cracking top 3 value.

The race is replete with its usual intrigue after Thursday's crashes and injuries to the ante post favourite and second choices, Vinokourov and Kloden. Both are doubtful and may or may not start today. Vino has stitches in a knee wound and 'Klodie' has aggravated an old coccyx injury, with a hairline fracture.

I've strengthened my overall position on Cadel Evans, by backing him to win, be in the first 3, and the first 6. I can't have Valverde and the top two are doubtful. This renders the race wide open.

I've also had a little tickle on an up and comer, Alberto Contador. To be honest, I don't know too much about him, but the right dogs are barking in his favour, and the race will take marginally less winning than normal, so on that basis he makes the portfolio.

I was delighted to see the 3yo's inject some fresh interest in the sprinting ranks yesterday, with Sakhee's Secret answering all my questions about class, and Dutch Art following him home. It's been a frustrating week at Newmarket for me, having tried to beat both SS and WW (Winker Watson).

Throw in the fact that Boonen won the Tour stage yesterday when I tried to get him beaten, and a few too many jollies have hit the board for my liking!

Nevertheless, I've been peppering the target if not quite hitting the bullseye, so confidence remains high.

And, after the carnage of Thursday, I managed four lays from four yesterday, including Alambic (laid at 8/11, returned evens).

For a great free laying service, see Thursday's post here:

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/2007/07/review-of-easy-money-laying-system-plus.html

Good luck with your weekend wagers and, just for once, Allez La France!

Matt

Friday (Frog) Fun: Can You Bet On This?

What the frog is going on here? Check out this frogumentary...

The book's due out soon. It's good, trust me. I've reddit... (geddit?!)



[No frogs were harmed in the shooting of this film]

Matt

Triskaidekaphobia?

Not just the name of a mediocre racehorse, dear reader, but also the fear of the number 13. From the Greek, Tris = three, kai = and, deka = ten, according to Wikipedia. And today is Friday as well, to compound the concerns of the more superstitious in our fine community.

Well, for me, it was very much a case of duokaidekaphobia, as Thursday 12th provided one of my most memorable blowout days ever, in a betting context at least.

My lays won (and how! 4/6, 11/8, 7/2 and - wait for it - 6/1!) to undo about a month's good work with a new system I'm playing with. My back selections are still running (one was reported missing late last night - last seen a furlong adrift somewhere on Newmarket Heath...).

I thought I'd caught a cracker with Philippe Gilbert in the Tour when he was the most aggressive man in a three rider breakaway. But, after 120 km's away from the peloton, the plucky trio were engulfed with just six miles to race.

So it was a case of Philippe f-lop (geddit?!).

No matter, for today is another day. I am reminded of one of my favourite racing maxims, and one which I would strongly advise all of you to consider:

After a good run, expect a bad run. After a bad run, expect a good run.

This is the unequivocal law of our game, and it serves me well in times of need. Like today, having done my poke yesterday!

Of course, my bad luck cycle may not be quite through, but I was born an optimist and I will die one, so onwards and downwards it must be.

July Cup is the big race of the day, and much discussion is centred on the 3yo Sakhee's Secret. The boy has been massively impressive in Listed class, but it's one hell of a step up in grade, straight into a Group 1.

I've been reading a book about class, that most ethereal of traits (in both humans and horseflesh), so it was interesting to read James Willoughby's piece in the Racing Post today about class and how it affects racehorses.

Willoughby notes that, although the final time of today's race may be akin to the times that SS has already been running, he is likely to encounter much faster early fractions than he ever has before. Quite simply, he could be spent before halfway.

There is much credence in this. Furthermore, as Dr James Quinn, the leading US author on class, asserts, class can also be measured in a horse's ability to withstand challenges. SS has yet to have to hang tough under duress in his classic season and, as a 2yo, in the two of his three races when he was challenged, he folded tamely (he won the other race by six lengths!).

On balance, though I think he is a very (very!) fast horse, I am against SS, as I just think he will be outclassed today. He won't be able to dominate these in the way he has other fields, and he may well be on the retreat before halfway, having struggled with the early fractions.

Against him, I am a big fan of the fastest cripple on four legs, Soldier's Tale. Whether his fragile frame will stand up on the faster grass of the Heath remains to be seen, but I'll have a small win bet at the available 12/1 in case.

I'll strengthen my hand with a horse placed in the 2,000 Guineas and now dropping back to a trip he looks suited to, Dutch Art. Lots of non-staying milers have found their metier when dropped to sprint trips, and this horse definitely oozes the class which Sakhee's Secret has yet to prove. While 5/1 is not a sexy price, it is a fair one, and the Chapple-Hyam yard could hardly be in better form.

If SS wins, I will be the first to salute a potential new champ; if the Soldier battles home in front, I'll be delighted for the old knacker; if Dutch Art wins, I will feel vindicated that at least fresh blood is appearing in a frankly below class division of British racing (the sprinters).

If something else wins, I'll not be surprised, but I will be a little disappointed (and a few quid still poorer).

A lay for the day, and my system yet again throws up one of my favourite trainers. This time it tells me that Alambic cannot win, even though Sir Mark Prescott forgets more about racing on a daily basis than I will ever know. Let's hope this time he's placed his nag inappropriately. It doesn't happen very often, for sure.

By the way, talking of lays, if you missed yesterday's post, have a look at the review of the 'Easy Money Laying' system, and learn how you can get it for free. (Of course, there's a small condition, but - trust me - it's a favourable one).

Check it out here: http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blog.html and look for Thursday's post.

Onto the Tour, and today is very much the calm before the storm. From tomorrow, the riders are faced with the literal highs and lows of the Alps. This is a part of the race where riders are - in some cases, sadly, literally - killing themselves to get home in front. (Tom Simpson, the British rider, collapsed and died on Mont Ventoux forty years ago. Others have tragically passed the same way since, notably the Italian Fabio Casartelli, descending in the Pyrenees).

So, today will be an edgy day, with the big riders wanting to conserve their energies for what is to come (especially Vinokourov who crashed yesterday and lost big time on his rivals - he will be fun to watch over the weekend), and with sprinters wanting one last hurrah before many of them cry enough, not able to go the ominous metre of the peloton as it wends itself inexorably upward.

If you take the view that it will be a sprint finish, as I do, then there are only a handful of riders who can realistically win.

Tom Boonen is a perennial challenger and multiple sprint stage winner, but he banged his arm a few days back, and has been off the pace since. While it wouldn't surprise me if he resurged, I will look elsewhere.

I am a huge fan of the Norwegian monster, Thor Hushovd. The man's a genetic freak and frankly scares the 5h1t out of me. But boy can he ride! He's a 10.5/1 shot in betfair's book and I'll have some of that.

The other really obvious candidate is Robbie McEwan. At 4/1, he's not exactly great value but he will likely be only a wheel away from first place, if he doesn't prevail. I'll reluctantly swerve him in the quest for a bit of value.

Finally, at a surprisingly large price for a new kid on the block, Gert Steegmans can be backed at 85. He's already won a sprint stage, beating Boonen in Belgium, and he can give us a bit of fun at a massive price.

As I'm writing this, I see that Bradley Wiggins, the British rider has made a lone break. He is currently 5'40" up on the peloton, but this is surely a move to get his sponsor some publicity. I'd be astonished (and absolutely delighted) if he could maintain his prominence to stage end, but nevertheless 'Go Brad!!'.

Review of Easy Money Laying System, Plus A VERY Special Offer

From 28^th June until last Friday, 6^th July, I was trialling a laying system called Easy Money Laying (EML) on the blog.

The system is based on ratings produced by Adrian Massey, and looks for reasonably fancied but lowly rated horses to oppose.

Qualifiers must be between 3/1 and 15/2 at SP, and must not be bigger than 10.4 on betfair.

The service is subscription based, although if you sign up you will also get the formula to calculate qualifiers yourself. It’s 12 steps long, so I prefer to receive the emails!

So how did it perform?

Well, it started rather worryingly, with Squiffy winning at 7/1 on the first day. Thereafter, however, things went rather better with NINETEEN straight losers before General Flumpa went in at 11/2.

In total, out of 27 qualifiers during the trial, 25 were beaten (92.59%), and profits to a rolling 5% of bank (starting with a £400 bank) totalled £143.

These figures are calculated by using 16% over SP as the betfair price, and then deducting 5% commission on all winning trades.

Simply laying each horse to win £20 (or £19 after 5% commission) would have resulted in profits of £185 after all odds inflations and commission deductions were accounted for. (The disparity between this and the 5% of bank approach is because the 7/1 winner appeared so early, and the 5% of bank amount went down to £13).

The system seems to find a lot of slow horses and has been very successful in this short trial.

Long term, the results are impressive, as follows:

Annual Returns:

2000: 206.4 pts profit

2001: 277.9

2002: 156.05

2003: 164.8

2004: 130.5

2005: 226.5

2006: 176.4

2007: 42.65 (YTD)

These returns also account for betfair commissions and inflated odds.

So both the short term and long term potential of this system is proven.

One important point to note is that you will be laying horses at up to 10.0 on betfair and, as such, it’s not for everyone. The recommended bank is 100 points for obvious reasons: anything smaller and a short term loss period could wipe you out.

However, if you buy into the system for the mid to long term, history supports the notion that you will come out comfortably in front.

I highly recommend this system to more experienced layers, and patient bettors (i.e. long term) of any level of expertise.

Full results for the trial period can be seen here:

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/emlresults.html

Now for the best bit…

You can receive this system free.

You read that correctly. This system’s qualifiers will be emailed to you daily for nothing.

What’s the catch, I hear you ask? Well, there is a condition, of course!

In this case, the Easy Money Laying system is a bonus service provided by the author of a new horse racing systems newsletter, Terry Allen.

I’ve seen the newsletter – indeed, I’m a contributor – so I can vouch for the quality of its content (especially my article! ;-) ).

Each month, it reviews a number of horse racing systems for both backing and laying, and pulls no punches in its verdict.

Because Terry charges for the newsletter, he is not in cahoots with any of the product authors. As a result, you can be confident that the reviews are impartial and an honest reflection of the author’s view.

When I discussed mentioning the newsletter on Nag3 with Terry, I asked him if he’d offer a special discount for the first issue to Nag3 readers, or if he’d produce a free sample issue so readers could see what they would get before they spent any hard earned cash.

Bless him, if he hasn’t come up with both!

So, here’s the deal…

You can look at a free sample copy of the newsletter at

http://www.thebettinginsider.com/nnn.htm

From there, you can also sign up for the special rate of £9.99 for the first month, and £17.99 monthly thereafter.

The normal price is £19.99, so Nag3 readers get a free sample, then a heavily discounted first issue (half price), and a 10% discount for the life of your membership.

And of course you get the free lay system qualifiers thrown in. Or, to look at it another way, you get the lay system for £9.99 then £17.99, and you get a free systems newsletter thrown in!

Either way, it’s a standout deal, and by far the best offer I’ve seen for any system anywhere to date.

If that isn’t enough (and it surely is!), Terry offers a 100% money back guarantee as well. (Remember, I only ever promote products where you can get your money back if you’re not happy).

Terry is my kind of guy: he is genuinely interested in providing real winning strategies, AND doing his bit to restore the integrity of horse racing systems as a means of successful betting.

Check this offer out now: http://www.thebettinginsider.com/nnn.htm

Remember, this is ONLY available to Nag3 readers, and it’s only available from this page. (So if you sign up for Terry’s e-course from the above page, remember to use the link here on the blog if you want to pay the discounted rate!)

Matt

Back In The Saddle...

Aah, its good to be back dear reader, its good to be back...

After trying my arm (with a degree of success that at least minimised losses) on US racing, its nice to find the familiar conformation of the Racing Post form guide to help me find winners and losers again.

For those of you not familiar with form study in the USA, its a completely different ball game to here in the UK. I will be sharing some of their interesting alternative interpretations of past performance with you over coming days and weeks.

For now though, suffice it to say that I'm certain that the fundamental constructs of US race analysis: class, pace and speed, can be applied successfully at least to all weather racing in this country, and possibly more widely. And I'll be looking to prove that in due course too.

Back to today, and the two big events are Newmarket's ongoing July meeting and Stage 5 of the Tour de France.

At Newmarket, the racing is as fiercely competitive as ever. Yesterday, there seemed to be a small preference towards middle to high numbers, so we'll use that to try to find a couple of winners.

Winker Watson looks a very smart horse, and followers of TrainerFlatStats know all about Peter Chapple-Hyam with his 2yo colts, as he was featured as one of the trainers to follow in a bonus product accompanying that. His record this season with his young boys is exceptional.

However, its worth noting that Chapple-Hyam's brilliant Turtle Island won the same Ascot race before being beaten here back in 1993 and, with an extra three pounds to lug here, the Winker doesn't look great value. Drawn in 1 may also be the worst of the draw so, while I stop short of laying him, I will certainly look elsewhere for the winner.

Swiss Franc is the most likely opponent, but he fares little better in the draw, having received the number 2 gate. Obviously, there's going to be plenty of pace on that side if the field splits, but I reckon its more likely that they will come over to the middle or the near side rail. That being the case, the top and bottom horses just mentioned will have to run an extra six or seven lengths to traverse the track.

Would you bet them giving up six lengths at 2/1 or 9/2 respectively? They could improve sufficiently for the extra furlong to do this, but it would be an indictment of the rest of the field in my book.

So, for me, as a value alternative, I'll plump for Spirit of Sharjah. Regular readers will suggest that this is a sentimentalist selection, as the horse is trained by Julia Feilden, trainer of my own (bit of) horse, Rapid City.

Sharjah is far and away the best 2yo Julia's had, and wasn't beaten far behind Winker Watson at Royal Ascot last time (eventually finished 3rd). He's bred to appreciate the extra furlong, is much better drawn in 8, and gets a 3lb pull for 1 1/4 lengths. If you buy into the theory of extra distance travelled for Winker to get across the course, then 9/1 about Julia's colt must be a decent each way wager.

He'll do for me. That said, one that could make all of these look like schoolboys against a college graduate is Paul Cole's River Proud. I have to concede to not being a fan of Cole, and to actually detesting Richard Quinn, the horse's pilot (I hold him responsible for the demise of the now resurgent HRA Cecil stable).

But this horse could, in the vernacular of racing, be anything. Dotting up by five lengths on debut in what looked a decent maiden even by Newbury standards, he apparently looked like a beastie before the race there. It wouldn't surprise me if this horse took the field apart but, at 7/2, there's a whole lot of improvement already factored into his price.

Elsewhere on the card, there are some impossible looking races, and I'll likely steer clear of most, but I can never resist a small each way tickle in insoluble handicaps, and the 2.35 is just that. 20 unexposed 3yo's over a mile and a quarter means the race may become something of a crapshoot. No matter!

Pipedreamer (what I may be, thinking I can find the winner in here) is more unexposed than most, and could easily make it a hat-trick of wins in this race, but at 5/1 is too short for a play in a race like this. I'm looking for double digits about my losing ticket(!), and the 10/1 about Bid For Glory will do for me. The horse improved to win his last race at a mile, is well berthed in 18, and should improve for the extra quarter mile here.

If trained by Stoute or Gosden, he'd be vying for favouritism, and Hugh Collingridge is no slacker in the handling department. Four places for each way punters means you'll get a bit more than your dough back if he makes the leading quartet.

On the laying side of things, one I definitely want to be against is Nimra in the 3.30 at Warwick. Topweight will only slow this already slow horse down still further and, though I have the utmost respect for the trainer, this probably isn't his finest placement of one of his charges. For all that, at around 6/1 to lay on betfair, he's too big a price for my tastes.

Elsewhere, Perfectperformance at 4/6 looks opposable in the 8.10 at Nottingham. There's only four runners, so every chance that the race will be tactical. If Tucker has a couple of lengths on the Godolphin jolly with a quarter mile to run, he can outrun the seasonal debutant to the line.

Indeed, Nakheel may well lead them in too, and is a second plausible threat to the underpriced and overbet favourite. I'll try to get Perfectperformance beaten.

Onto the Tour, and after a few easy to find stage winners in Cancellara (prologue), Boonen and Hushovd (sprint finishes), along with less easy to find winners in Staegmans (sprint beating team mate Boonen in both their home country, Belgium) and Cancellara again (brilliant opportunistic strike from excellent short distance rider), it gets considerably more difficult today.

After the flats of England and Belgium and, thus far, France too, the roads start to beckon the riders on an elevated plane for the first time today. Eight categorised climbs feature in a 120 mile slog (four Category 4's, three 3's and a 2 - luckily, the 1's and HC's (Horse Categorie, or Out of Category!) are yet to come!) from Chablis - where I'd be tempted to stay and drink their fine produce - to Autun, and it will not be a day for the sprinters.

Nor will it be a day for the main men in the Tour, as they will be keeping their powder dry for bigger fish to fry (how's that for a rhyming mixed metaphor?!).

No, today I suspect will see a breakaway winner, and possible a new yellow jersey wearer by end of day. On a day when there are any number of journeymen who will strive for the stage win that will justify their inclusion in the team, I'll go with a couple of old stagers and a new kid on the block.

Jens Voigt has been there, seen it, done it, and printed his own T-shirts in Tours de France, and he'll likely be to the fore of any breakways. He's currently 56th on the overall 'classement', behind by just 68 seconds. A decisive breakaway from him today and he could be the proud owner of not just a stage win but also the 'maillot jaune'.

The only question is whether that prize would mean more than a stage win. If that were the case, he could trade the stage victory for the coveted race leader jersey, and work with another rider. Nevertheless, he makes the shortlist.

Joining him is another tough as teak 'battleur', Sandy Casar. Himself only 1 minute 11 seconds off the pace, Casar is a frequent winner of the 'coeur de lion' (lion heart) shirt, awarded daily for the bravest, most aggressive rider. Where he gets his reserves from, I don't know (although I suspect its probably from a bottle of EPO...!), and he's definitely on the list.

Finally, and from the up and coming ranks, I'll throw in Phillipe Gilbert. The roads here are supposedly similar to his home region of the Walloon in Belgium. He's a proven single day race winner, and this course will ride like a single day road event.

The odds on these three warriors are: Voigt 14/1, Gilbert 29/1 and Casar 79/1 (all betfair), and for throwaway stakes these guys should give you an interest.

More later. Ciao for now.
Matt

In A Packed Programme Tomorrow...

Just a short line to tell you that I've arrived back in the UK, somewhat bereft of shuteye. Consequently, the two items I had planned to post today will now be posted tomorrow.

To save your tenterhooks, I can reveal that tomorrow will see a review of the final standings for Easy Money Laying system, which we trialled up to last Friday. If you'd like to get these selections on a daily basis, I think I have agreed an offer with the author that will be very hard to refuse.

I'll also be sharing with you a few highlights from my trip to Las Vegas, uncluding an alarming incident on the casino floor the first night we were there.

And I'll be reviewing the day's action on four legs and two wheels: July Stakes day at Newmarket, and the first bumpy stage in the Tour de France.

(For info, and it doesn't help any of us, I would have tipped and backed Cancellara in the Prologue, and Boonen and Hushovd for the sprints. Betfair kindly identified that I was trying to log on from USA and declined my wagers!)

It's a wide open stage tomorrow, so I'm not overly confident of finding the winner, but we're moving towards the mountain stages, kicking off on Saturday, and the best news of all is that the Sky repair man has been round this afternoon and replaced my digibox. So Eurosport action is resumed in readiness for the weekend. :)

A domani...
Matt

Back From The Dead... Well, Las Vegas Actually!

Hello dear reader, and please accept my sincere apologies for the blog downtime this week.

The truth is, as regular followers will know, I've been dossing in Las Vegas. A friend of mine won a seat at the World Series of Poker and asked me to accompany him on a junket (he qualified through an online poker site who paid for us both to travel and stay).

As I'm writing this, he is playing in Day Two, already a very impressive achievement. The biggest names in the game have failed to progress this far, including Amarillo Slim (I've now met him!), Doyle Brunson, Phil Hellmuth, and many others!

The down side is that there are still over 2,000 players in the tournament.

I've pictures and stories to share but, as I'm currently in the airport lounge (free wifi is currently my favourite thing on the planet - sad I know), you'll have to wait at least until tomorrow.

I've just been called for boarding so please accept this post as confirmation that I am still alive, and normal service will resume within 24 hours.

Many thanks again to those who've been missing me and emailed to ask where I'd got to.

Ciao pronto from Vegas baby!

Matt

Today's Easy Laying System Selections

Today's system qualifiers:

Horses noted with a * are currently within the price criteria

*Warw 14.20 – Pugnacity*

Warw 16.05 – Musical Chimes

Warw 17.10 – Last Flight (too short at the moment.)

*Warw 17.40 – Sovietta*

Warw 17.40 – Always Baileys

*Wolv 14.30 – Millsini*
Wolv 14.30 – Kilvickeon

Wolv 15.05 – Oscar Ireland

*Wolv 16.50 – Ochre Bay*

Wolv 16.50 – Soviet Sound

Wolv 17.20 – Grand Lucre

Wolv 17.20 – Day by day.

From the author, Terry, here is a review of the week's progress. He intends to do this each week, so you'll easily be able to compare notes.

Yesterday:

Hit a winner yesterday. The system can’t get off the ground it seems at the moment. So far its nothing unusual in terms of results, it’s just one of those churn periods that any system can go through. Some have been asking about recording results. If you ever need to you can input the system’s parameters into Adrian Massey’s site to check the recent and historical performance (http://www.adrianmassey.com/sel/index.php).

Other than that I’ve recently been proofing to www.racing-index.com . If you go to the proofing section ‘The Betting Insider’ lays are there in the section of people with few tips near the bottom somewhere. I’ve also been taking note of the same lays and noting the actual prices matched whether they came within the criteria or not.

I’ve included this update below and will send out each Friday. You’ll note I haven’t included the two horses mentioned the other day which don’t appear to have been matched because their prices were over 10.5. Spume was also close yesterday and may not have been matched by some. In the interest of fairness I’ve only noted the lays since proofing to Racing Index and have listed returns to prices matched with 5% betfair commission. For lays before this you can check yourself via Adrian Massey’s site.

Date	Race	Horse	SP	Price matched	W/L	Return	Profits	% over SP
25/06/2007	Muss 14.00	Champage Cracker	5.50	6.4	1	0.95	0.95	16.36%
25/06/2007	Muss 17.00	River Club	3 1/2	4.6	1	0.95	1.9	31.43%
25/06/2007	Wolv 3.15	Time Share	5	6.6	0	-6.6	-4.7	32.00%
26/06/2007	Brig 15.30	Lawyer to world	3 1/2	4.1	0	-4.1	-8.8	17.14%
26/06/2007	Brig 16.30	posts Profit	7 1/2	9.5	1	0.95	-7.85	26.67%
26/06/2007	Brig 17.00	Talcen Gwyn	5 1/2	6.7	1	0.95	-6.9	21.82%
26/06/2007	Newb 20.40	Toccata	6	5.8	1	0.95	-5.95	-3.33%
27/06/2007	Salis 15.20	Algarde	6	9.5	1	0.95	-5	58.33%
27/06/2007	Salis 17.10	Mr Grand Lodge	7 1/2	7.6	1	0.95	-4.05	1.33%
28/06/2007	Newc 17.00	Kunte Kinteh	6	6.6	1	0.95	-3.1	10.00%
28/06/2007	Yarm 15.40	Celtic Memories	5 1/2	7	1	0.95	-2.15	27.27%
28/06/2007	Yarm 15.40	Rotation	4	6.7	1	0.95	-1.2	67.50%
28/06/2007	Warw 15.50	Squiffy	7	7.8	0	-7.8	-9	11.43%
28/06/2007	Warw 16.20	Feeling Wonderful	4 1/2	5.25	1	0.95	-8.05	16.67%
28/06/2007	Warw 16.50	Snake Hips	7 1/2	7.3	1	0.95	-7.1	-2.67%
28/06/2007	Warw 16.50	Hopefull Isabella	6	6.5	1	0.95	-6.15	8.33%
29/06/2007	Warw 16.20	Six of hearts	7	8.3	1	0.95	-5.2	18.57%
02/07/2007	Ponte 14.15	Riguez Dancer	7	8.8	1	0.95	-4.25	25.71%
02/07/2007	Ponte 14.45	Nice to Know	6 1/2	8.2	1	0.95	-3.3	26.15%
02/07/2007	Ponte 15.45	Aye Aye Definitely	4 1/2	5.7	1	0.95	-2.35	26.67%
02/07/2007	Ponte 16.15	Sadlers Kingdon	4 1/2	5.5	1	0.95	-1.4	22.22%
02/07/2007	Ponte 17.15	Moonstreaker	7	8.4	1	0.95	-0.45	20.00%
02/07/2007	Wolv 14.30	Nashharry	6	7.8	1	0.95	0.5	30.00%
03/07/2007	Ham 14.45	View From The Top	5 1/2	6.2	1	0.95	1.45	12.73%
03/07/2007	Ham 15.15	The Mighy Ogmore	7	8.2	1	0.95	2.4	17.14%
03/07/2007	Brig 16.00	Proposal	7	9	1	0.95	3.35	28.57%
03/07/2007	Brigh 16.30	Fun In The Sun	7	8.6	1	0.95	4.3	22.86%
04/07/2007	Kemp	Stoneacre Gareth	7	8.6	1	0.95	5.25	22.86%
05/07/2007	Yarm	A Mothers Love	6	6.9	1	0.95	6.2	15.00%
05/07/2007	Yarm	General Flumpa	5 1/2	6.4	0	-6.4	-0.2	16.36%
05/07/2007	Newb 20.40	Spume	7	9.5	1	0.95	0.75	35.71%

Tour de France Preview: The Race For The Maillot Jaune

The world’s greatest cycling event, and the most watched sporting event in Europe is a three week slog for all of the competitors.

But for the ‘maillot jaune’ challengers, the demands are particularly fierce. To have a serious chance of winning, you need the climbing skills of a wisteria plant allied to the speed in the ‘contre le montres’ (against the clocks) of a track cyclist.

It is a rare breed indeed that can be effective at both disciplines, hence the starting roster for Le Tour of pushing two hundred can quickly be whittled down to about half a dozen from a punting perspective.

In recent times, there has been monopoly ownership of the race, with first Miguel Indurain, the Spanish powerhouse, winning six Tour titles. Then, after just a couple of years’ respite, Lance Armstrong won an astonishing record seven on the bounce.

The strength of the American grip on the race was accentuated last year in controversial fashion when Floyd Landis won the race, only to be stripped of his title a few days later for testing positive for blood doping.

Doping in the sport is endemic, and – if you let it – it will kill your pleasure of the race. For my part, I choose to assume they’re all cheating and, therefore, the race is fair. As perverse as that logic is, it’s probably the most rational starting point.

Landis will not be here to defend his crown. Nor will Jan Ullrich be trying for a second triumph so many years after his first. Nor either will Ivan Basso grace the Grand Depart in London, the most obvious contender for the longer term mantle after Armstrong’s retirement.

All are banned or retired, and under a cloud of doping allegations, either acknowledged or otherwise.

But, for all the doubts about the health of the sport, and the missing combatants, the race remains – and always will remain – a unique sporting spectacle.

No other sporting event that I’m aware of places the same physical and emotional demands on its field. This in itself is the singlemost likely reason for such widespread drug abuse in the sport.

(Incidentally, lest you think that drug cheats in cycling are a new problem, be assured that since the time of Jacques Ancquetil and before, riders have openly acknowledged the use of barbiturates and amphetamines, as well as good old cognac, to get them over the mountains).

To this year’s race, starting in London for the first time, and the battle for the overall title of Tour de France winner.

The jolly old favourite is the second most famous Kazakh on the planet (after Borat, ahem), Alexander Vonokourov. The man is a big tank, his legs two titanium crafted pistons thumping down on his irons with unstintingly merciless, metronomic regularity.

As an athlete, Vino is by far the strongest man in the race (perhaps followed in by the Norse god, Thor Hushovdt), and he will not yield to any man in terms of the physical battle.

But for Vino, the problems are all under his racing helmet. The man is plainly psychotic! One of the most amazing things from the plethora of amazing things that make cycling the compelling spectacle that it is, is that some days you just have to let riders go flying by you, and accept that you will lose time to them in the overall ‘classement’.

This fact was never better illustrated than last year, when Floyd Landis had a bad day. A really bad day. As Floyd floundered, he was passed by the mountain goats from the peloton, a number of whom had real aspirations of carrying yellow to Paris.

Landis could barely raise a canter, let alone a gallop, as rider after rider passed him by. Having already lost over thirty minutes to the Spaniard Oscar Pereiro, who was not seen as a threat for the overall title, Landis collapsed on Stage 16, losing a further ten minutes that day.

And yet, miraculously (and allegedly by foul means), the very next day Landis produced one of the great solo rides in Tour history to claw back all but a few seconds of his deficit against the hapless Hispanic.

The final time trial was a strength for Landis and a weakness for Pereiro and, as such, the inevitable regaining of the yellow jersey was sealed in a truly extraordinary Tour.

That rather lengthy aside reveals how some times you have to lose battles in order to win the war. Our man, Vinokourov, I fear will never cede in a battle. He is a warrior, and he detests defeat.

It is a cliché in sport that some athletes only have themselves to fear, and my suspicion is that the Kazakh comet will implode at some point in the mountains, be they Pyrenean or Alpine.

So, the 5/2 favourite removed from our thoughts, we can focus on the remainder of the field with value assured. (Unless of course our man from Kazakhstan does the beeswax..!)

Vino’s key antagonists are likely to be all or a subset of Carlos Sastre, Cadel Evans, Andreas Kloden, Alejandre Valverde, and 2006 runner up Oscar Pereiro.

My ante-post fancy, Damiano Cunego, has (sensibly) decided not to race this year. He won the Giro d’Italia and at 26 is still younger than the average Tour contender (28 to 32 is considered prime time). He’ll be back next year, and will be one to watch.

Enough of those who are not here, and onto those who are.

Oscar Pereiro probably had his chance last year and blew it. The fact is he cannot time trial and nobody wins a TdF without being able to beat the clock. He may very well win a mountain stage and, as a Spaniard, you should pay special attention to him in the Pyrenees, but he just isn’t quick enough when it matters to trouble the judge. A red line struck through the Pereiro then.

Cadel Evans is a very interesting entrant. The former World Champion Mountain Bike rider is a curious convert to road racing, and is hugely talented. As a mountain biker, he has a fine blend of stamina and raw speed, and can be counted on to rarely lose much time against his rivals.

His weakness, like Vinokourov’s, is mental. Unlike Vino though, his problem is one of being too conservative. Watching Evans, you always get the feeling that he’s hanging in there and saving a bit for another day. The problem is, I’ve yet to see the day when he’s used it!

2007 could well be Evans’ year, and he is definitely on my shortlist. A top six finish wager gives a cracking chance of a payout, granted fortune along the route (something which can be pretty hard to come by..!)

Carlos Sastre is many people’s idea of the winner. He’s certainly not for me, as his two key flaws are poor time trialling (an automatic scratch for me) and a conservative mentality. His consistency commands respect, but his win record is testament to his lack of aggression and his relative slowness in TT’s.

For me, the biggest conundrum of a rider is Andreas Kloden. I’m a huge fan of the German and perennially back him for a place (and perennially get paid out). Formerly with T-Mobile, and playing a supporting role in the team, this season he has moved to Vinokourov’s Astana team.

He is an excellent climber and a very capable time triallist. So why is he not a standout wager? Two reasons: firstly, although the pair have a bizarre dislike of each other bordering on hatred, he has a pact with Vino to be his ‘general’ this year, in exchange for Vino reciprocating in 2008 and 2009. Personally, I am confident that this relationship will never last that long, and it’s possible that if Kloden feels fresh and Vino self-combusts, he will take the reins this year.

Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, I question Kloden’s temperament and his consistency. He seems much happier in the supporting role, as per his alleged alliance with Astana this year, and he sunk without trace the year in between his silver and bronze medal finishes.

As a rider who has already finished second and third in Tours de France, his credentials do stand up to considerably more scrutiny than most though. A probable podium finisher, in my view.

Which just leaves us to consider the credentials of Alejandre Valverde. An immensely talented young Spanish rider, Valverde has yet to finish a Tour in two attempts. Although bad luck has played its part in this, facts are facts, and he is still raw and unproven over the full three gruelling weeks of the Tour.

Additionally, he is a relatively weak time triallist, and would need to be in the order of two minutes ahead of the best TT’ers after the last mountain stage to be considered the likely winner. (A time trial stage always precedes the final stage procession into Paris: it serves as a final opportunity for a rider to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat, or vice versa in the case of poor Pereiro last year).

So there you have it. There are reasons why no rider is a standout to win this year’s Tour. Luck will play its part, especially in the first week, when the race cannot be won but it sure as hell can be lost. Crashes aplenty tend to occur and if a rider gets caught behind a pile up he can be three or four minutes down almost before a pedal has been powerfully pushed in earnest.

To be honest, I’m inclined not to strike an outright win wager on anyone. The spectre of drugs always leaves the worry that a rider could be suspended at any point as well.

My strongest advice is that I think Kloden and Evans are excellent top three wagers, and cast iron (bar a fall) top six punts.

Vino will probably win it if his head doesn’t always govern his body, and I wouldn’t begrudge him that, especially not to his face. The man has legs like tree trunks, and arms like legs!

What I do know for sure is that the race will have its usual mix of thrills and spills, classic scenery, tear jerking stories, and of course – the reason I watch above all others – phenomenal human endeavour in the face of the sheerest of sporting challenges.

The man who finishes last in Paris is a sporting legend in my book, those that beat him are in the pantheon of the sporting gods.

Catch all the action at http://www.letour.fr/2007/TDF/COURSE/us/index.html

Bravo tutti!

Matt

Easy Laying Update: Second Winner :(

Hello everyone from ridiculously balmy Las Vegas. It's an astonishing 47C here (that's 117F!), so taxis are the order of the day and there is a need to stay in as much as possible.

I was with my friend Gavin at the signin for the World Series of Poker. If you remember, Gavin won an online satellite tournament (beating almost 1200 other people) to book his place here. That meants Pokerstars.com gave him the $10,000 entry fee. Yes, you read that right.

It costs about £5,000 to enter the WSoP. And you know what? They were queueing around the block to hand their cash over today. I've never seen anything like it. But then, that's probably the most overused statement in Las Vegas.

Looking at the last couple of day's action, and Easy Money Laying has continued to perform with credit, although it did incur its second reverse today, when the 11/2 shot General Flumpa scooted up in an amateur riders' race.

My own laying records show that these races are not to be trusted, and as a general rule of thumb, its best to leave them alone. However, for the record, Flumpa counts as a hit to our bank and the current balance of payments is a notional £147 in our favour.

The tale of the tape to date is as follows:

Bets	25
Losers	23
Lose %	92.00

From a personal point of view, if I was looking to take one on Friday, it would be opposing Siberian Tiger in the 3.40 Wolverhampton. The Tiger is new to all weather racing, and faces rivals who have shown they can act on it (especially Cosmic Art and L'Art du Silence). As I can't get access to betfair from the States however, I'll not be partaking.

I did have my first bet today. Not being a fan of casino gambling, I still enjoy the odd flutter on the US races. I made a horse a strong chance to be in the first two, at 7/1. His only rival was the 4/5 favourite. I backed the 7/1 shot, who duly gave best to the 4/5 jolly. A small $10 exacta saved my bacon and put me a few coins in front.

I'll be back later with the Easy Money selections for Friday, plus my view on the world's greatest race, Le Tour de France.

Matt

FW: Laying System Selections Today

Today's system qualifiers:

Horses noted with a * are currently within the price criteria

*Yarm 16.30 - A Mothers Love*
Yarm 16.30 - Watchmaker
*Yarm 16.30 - Arabiyah*
Yarm 17.00 - Longhill Tiger
*Yarm 17.00 - General Flumpa*
Yarm 17.00 - Shaika

Newb 18.20 - Atticus Trophies
Newb 19.25 - Sonning Star
Newb 19.55 - Spume

Warw 20.05 Wizby

Yesterday:

3/3 from yesterday in theory, but it appears we weren't matched on Rothesay Dancer or Miacarla. I'm not sure if this it Auto Betfair playing up or if the prices were over the limits on betfair. I'd like to know how you got on, so please do email in with details of your own lay prices from yesterday.

Guidelines:

Remember these horses should only be layed if their SP is between 3/1 and 15/2.
If you are using a bot such as auto betfair set your parameters to 4.4 and 10.4.
Whatever method you use, never lay anything higher than 10.4. You may lay below 4.4 only if the SP is still 3/1.

The laying system is proven long term, but we will take some hits along the way. We can't make an omelette without cracking any eggs. If we experience a loss today, don't worry too much. Keep your staking disciplined and 6 months down the line we should be in a healthy profit.

Today's Easy Laying System Selections

Hello again, just a quick line with today's Easy Money Laying choices. Remember, we're up a notional £180 with all deductions accounted for, so far this week.

Here's the picks:

Horses noted with a * are currently within the price criteria

*Catt 16.35 – Rothesay Dancer*
*Catt 16.35 – Miacarla*
*Kemp 18.20 – Stoneacre Gareth*
Kemp 19.50 – Esteem
Kemp 20.50 – Don’t Mind Me
Kemp 21.20 – Must be Keen

All choices must be 3/1 to 15/2 at SP and less than 10.5 on the exchange to qualify.

Tomorrow's selections may be posted retrospectively, as I'll be flying at around 10 am. If I receive them prior to this, I'll post from my mobile phone as per my previous sojourn. I can not, of course, make any promises on this score.

Haven't really looked, and don't really fancy anything, today - its pretty mediocre fare, in truth.

If I were to try to get one beat (and I still might, my indiscipline being bound to get the better of me!), it would be Fromsong in the first race at Kempton tonight.

I'm currently rushing around like the proverbial fly with the blue behind, trying to get my 5h1t together for Vegas.

I'll be posting from there later in the week, with poker news and, more importantly, some Vegas odds on the Breeders' Cup. Let's see if we can't sniff out some value on the Euro horses. :)

cp
Matt

Look At My Shiny New Buttons!

A warm Wednesday welcome, dear reader, for once again we have negotiated the nastiness of the start of the week, and are approaching the brow of the hill...

A quick post this morning to tell you about my shiny new buttons. The more astute amongst you (or those who are less interested in the verbiage I spout on this part of the page) will have noticed a few little tweaks and modifications on the blog page.

Firstly, you'll see the Nag3 banner has appeared on the blog. Comments I'd received had (rightly) pointed out that it was difficult to navigate to the rest of the site from the blog, due to there being no links. Well, now you can access all of the free stuff, system reviews, articles, search and contact details more easily, should you so wish.

And secondly, I have added a couple of buttons in the top left corner. One of these is a 'Digg' button.

For those of you who don't know what Digg is (and I didn't a few short weeks ago!), it's what is called a social bookmarking site. This basically means that if you see a site and you like it, you 'Digg' it. The most digged (or dugg?) sites get extra visitors as a result of already being popular.

And, of course, I would like to get more visitors to my little page. As you may or may not know, I usually spend between one and two hours coming up with the content for this page and - although that is very much a labour of love - it's a labour I'd like to share with a wider audience.

So, if you like a post on the blog, or the Nag3 site in general, then please do me a favour and 'Digg' me maaaaan... Just click the button! (If you don't like the site, I'm amazed that you've read this far, but feel free to ignore all of my shiny new accoutrements!)

Finally, and importantly, just below the Digg button is a link to 'Tell A Friend About This Site'.

This is really simple: if you see a post that you reckon someone else will be interested in, click here. All you have to do is add your email address and theirs, and click the 'Tell My Friend' button.

The person you tell is under no compulsion to visit the site, but your recommendation may just bring a few more eyes to my quest for World domination. ;)

Yesterday's action saw me prove once and for all what I already knew: I have zero discipline! In fairness to me, I only struck one bet, laying Tibouchina, and she did get beaten so I collected.

But she was beaten less than a neck in a crawl of a race as projected. I was lucky to get paid out, and I expect to have to repay that debt of fortune on another race in the near future. Swings and roundabouts my friends, that's what this 'Glorious Uncertainty' presents us with on a daily basis.

Easy Money Laying continues to grow its bank after its unsteady start and, after another four losers from four qualifiers yesterday, is now up to £180 profit on the week.

I'll continue to track it here until Friday, when I'll have what I hope will be exciting news about how you can receive this service for nada!

Enough already. Time for my gym session, and oh boy, am I looking forward to it... Zzzzzz.

Matt

Today's Easy Laying System Selections

Today's system qualifiers:

Horses noted with a * are currently within the price criteria

*Ham 14.15 – Dottys Daughter*
Ham 14.45 – Bivouac
Ham 14.45 – Tomorrows Dancer
*Ham 14.45 – View From The Top*
*Ham 14.45 – Morbick*
* Ham 15.15 – Leprechauns Gold*
* Ham 15.15 – The Might Ogmore*
Ham 16.45 – Pitbull

Brig 16.00 – Rainbow Flame
Brig 16.00 – Proposal
*Brig 16.30 – Nellys Glen*
Brig 16.30 – Fun In The Sun
Brig 16.30 – Lordship
Brig 17.00 – Mr Loire

Remember, must be 3/1 to 15/2 at SP, and less than 10.5 on betfair to qualify.

General Sports Roundup Plus Yesterday's Easy Laying System Review

Well, dear reader, after an unfortunate start when Squiffy won at 7/1 on the first day of the trial, Easy Laying System has now poked its head in front here on Day Three.

Six losers from six yesterday gives a running total of 14 losers from 15 and a profit of £104 to date. The profit figure is based on adding 16% to the SP of any winners and multiplying that by £20. When the lays lose we add £19 to our balance (£20 less 5% commission).

On my personal laying front, I managed to have one wager and win, with May Day Queen floundering on the unsuitable ground at 6/4. I hope I'm wrong, but I suspect they may already have ruined her by putting her in a series of tough races in relatively quick succession.

Its tough today and, while I'm tempted to lay any or all of the following, I'll keep my money in my pocket. Discipline is what the game is about, and it's good to have non-playing days if you don't fancy anything.

Saying that, these are the ones that will tempt me as the day wears on:

Tibouchina at Brighton (won two pedestrian races, but there's no guarantee of pace here either, so may sneak another win)

Sangfroid at Hamilton (very interesting profile, last on all three 2yo starts over 6f, runs over a mile and a half today, and bred for the trip. May find all of the necessary improvement)

Walgon Valley at Thirsk (best form but badly drawn and could encounter traffic problems)

Gongidas at Thirsk (top weight but not apparently any better than a number of the other runners, so a short price on what has been achieved to date. May also dislike being in front: 2nd by a short head on debut, then won by a short head next time out)

I will be pleased if I manage to swerve laying these, because I don't really feel strongly about any of them.

Other news, and the football transfer situation is picking up, with big name signings at both Arsenal (De Silva) and Liverpool (Torres) likely by close of play.

I'm starting to get a view on the teams that will carry my support this season, and will share that with you in due course.

One thing I can tell you: I make Wigan a sterling bet to be relegated at a general 11/8, and I'm very tempted to back them to finish bottom at pushing 5/1 on betfair.

They were a poor side last season, have made (in my opinion) awful signings, and their manager is useless.

Apologies to Wigan fans, but I see a season of despair for you guys.

As well as the tennis, London also hosts the start of the Tour de France this weekend. Le Grand Depart (The Big Departure) as it's known has once again become Le Grand Debacle, as the UCI (cycling's governing body) have decided for the second year running that the best time to accuse the teams of being drug cheats is in the week before the race.

Alex Vonokourov, the favourite, has been linked with disgraced Italian doctor, Michele Ferrari (yes, he does make his charges go faster!).

Ferrari previously worked with Lance Armstrong and is the main reason that the French believe Armstrong was doping during his six year tenure in the 'maillot jaune'.

Personally, I think the French just hate the fact that they have had no chance of winning their race for over a decade. Allied to this is the fact that when their own Richard Virenque, pretty boy and great white hope of cyclisme francaise, was banned for doping, all he got from the French was Rich Tea and Sympathy.

Anyway, I used to believe that cycling was the fairest sport of all, because they were ALL cheating! I don't believe that to be the case any more, but a significant subset definitely still are doping.

I am a huge fan of Le Tour, and am gutted to be missing the start here in Smokey. But then of course, I will be in Las Vegas, so every cloud has a silver lining and all that ;)

I'll be bringing you my thoughts on the race over the next few days and I can reveal that I don't think Vino will win... So, with the favourite out of the equation, who will head the peloton into Paris?

Stay tuned for my view on the race.

Back later with today's Easy Laying System selections, but for now...

Toodlepip!
Matt

Viva Las Vegas!

Hello again dear reader, and welcome to the Summer!

Yes, that's right its glorious July in Britain, and - of course - it's p1551ng down. Meetings abandones, matches abandoned, tennis abandoned, any hope of sun tan abandoned.

That is, unless your friend happens to be an extremely good poker player. Fortunately for me, my good mate Gavin is just that. And to prove it, he won a tournament with pokerstars.com that has earned him a seat at the World Series of Poker in good old Las Vegas!

As part of pokerstars.com drive for world domination, they called Gavin and asked him if he'd wear their shirt and cap in exchange for $2,000. Gavin politely replied, "Sir, for $2,000, I'll wear a pokerstars dress!"

That tale may or may not be apocryphal, but the long and short of it is that I will be heading to Nevada on Thursday morning and stopping out there for five days or so, or until Gavin gets knocked out of the tournament.

If you have more money than sense - and let's face it, most of us punters do! - you can back Gavin to make the top 10 with bluesq, who very generously (not) offer 300/1 about our Gareth Southgate lookeylikey hero going all the way to the final table.

Looking back at the weekend, it was good for me and better for TrainerFlatStats followers. I managed to lay four short priced losers, and back a 12/1 TFS winner. Indeed, it was the only TFS runner over the weekend, and paid for a good few beers Saturday night. (Didn't quite run to the Anadin Sunday morning though).

By the way, I'm thinking of starting a Munsef Fan Club. He's the equine equivalent of many a British sporting hero - bags of talent, but a complete professional loser with the wrong mindset to ever mix it with the best and come out in front. He is lay heaven!

To today, and the monsoons threaten yet more of our beloved sport. Currently all meetings are scheduled to proceed, but caution is advised. Especially so at Windsor, where they've moved the rails to find better ground. Nothing wrong with this in itself, but if your horse gets beaten a head and is in front a stride after the line, you can write to the clerk of the course and complain about the race being run over shy of the correct distance!

I am going to try to get another shortie beaten today (is there any other way?!), and the charming young lady in question is May Day Queen in the 8.00 at Goodwood.

Although she has already placed in a Group 3 in Ireland, this little filly almost drowned in another Group 3 at Royal Ascot. That race could well have left its mark; I suspect she didn't like the sod that day; and there are a goodly number of unexposed types in here that could improve past her.

At around about 6/4, she will do for me.

Finally, today's Easy Laying System selections are as follows (horses with an asterisk are currently within the price criteria):

*Ponte 14.15 – Riguez Dancer*
Ponte 14.15 – Northern Boy
Ponte 14.45 – Hostage
*Ponte 14.45 – Nice to Know*
*Ponte 15.45 – Aye Aye Definitely*
*Ponte 16.15 – Sadlers Kingdon*
Ponte 17.15 – Moonstreaker

*Wolv 14.30 – Nashharry*
Wolv 14.30 – Bentley
Wolv 14.30 – Scarlet Oak
Wolv 14.30 – Pennyrock
Wolv 14.30 – Vadinka
Wolv 15.00 – Mustammer
Wolv 15.30 – History Boy
Wolv 16.30 – Shrine Mountain
Wolv 17.00 – Burford Lass
Wolv 17.00 – City kid

Remember horses must be between 3/1 and 15/2 SP, and betfair odds must be no bigger than 10.5 to qualify.

Finally finally, a joke on Monday to stave off the start of another week of tedium (though I'm sure many of you enjoy work!):

A young jockey and his stable lass girlfriend make the decision to get married. Everything is planned and the couple intend to honeymoon in Italy for a week. The marriage goes without a hitch and the couple set off on their honeymoon. While checking in the lady behind the desk asks 'We have two suites available for you, would you like the bridal?' 'No thanks says the jockey I'll just hold her ears till she gets the hang of it!'

ttfn
Matt