Easy Laying System Day 2 Results

Only two qualifiers yesterday in the end, and both lost. Despite finding eight losers from nine selections to date, the one winner at 7/1 means we're £10 down, laying to win a notional £20 per horse.

Easy Laying System doesn't make selections on weekends, so there'll be more on this on Monday.

Today's racing action looks very soggy, and I suspect there'll be plenty of shock results.

After being a shade unlucky yesterday when laying Itsmyboy at 4/9, when Oniztoes clouted the penultimate fence and gifted the race to his opponent, I'm going to row in again with a short one.

The nag in question is my dear old friend, ahem, Munsef. He did win last time in one of those "No, no, after you" type affairs between professional losers, and I reckon he's a bit more on his plate today.

Around evens limits the liabilities and I'm happy to oppose.

I'm also against Lady Friend at Chester. One slow turf run and some unexposed contenders mean she's underpriced and may struggle to get home in front.

After also just missing out yesterday with my selections finishing 2nd, 3rd and 5th in the Gosforth Cup (winner drawn low, next five home drawn high), I'm going to try again at Newcastle today, where the going is heavy.

Fullandby and Zomerlust both love to get their hooves stuck in the mud and are distance specialists, so I reckon they'll have it between them. I'll be having a decent poke at both, and possibly even a small reverse exacta.

At Chester, I'm going with box 1 again in the sprint handicap. Efistorm was a winner last time and I reckon will track the Coconut Moon, before pulling past her in the dash to the lolly.

I like my chances today - let's hope that's not a bock!

Happy Soggy Saturday, Matt

Ffriday Ffun: The Two Ronnies

A lorry carrying blue paint crashed into a lorry carrying red paint on the
M4 today. Both drivers were said to be marooned...

And another:

Thieves broke into Hackney Police Station last night and stole all the toilets. A spokesman for the Met said they had nothing to go on...

A third:

A planeload of spittle has crashed into the sea off the west coast of Africa. Reporters at the scene said there were no salivas...

One more?

'Have you heard the one about the retired general who said he had not had sex since 1956? His friend said, 'That's a long time ago.'I don't know, 'the general replied.' It's only 20.27 now.'

And finally...

'Following the dispute with the domestic servants' union at Buckingham Palace today, the Queen, a radiant figure in a white silk gown and crimson robe, swept down the main staircase and through the hall. She then dusted the cloakroom and vacuumed the lounge.'

It's good night from me!

Good weekend to all.
Matt

Today's Easy Laying System Selections

Quick post to notify you of today's selections, subject to the odds criteria outlined yesterday:

Folk 15.30 – Auentraum
Folk 16.30 – Icannshift

*Wolv 14.50 – North Walk*
*Wolv 16.20 – Pivotalia*
Wolv 16.20 – Six of hearts
Wolv 16.50 – Border Artist
Wolv 16.50 – Rock Haven
Wolv 16.50 – Golden Spectrum
Wolv 16.50 – Band

MrktR 14.10 – Chalice Welcome
MrktR 15.10 – Just because

Back later with some Friday Fun, and if you like the Two Ronnies, have I got a treat for you!! (If you don't, apologies in advance!)

Matt

Hooray, It's Ffriday!

Here we are again, dear reader, staring down the barrel of the weekend. And, ffor a change, this Ffriday's post is sponsored by Royston Ffrench, a jockey who I've always loved, and who I believe is riding brilliantly at the moment.

Royston ffirst came to prominence ffor me in the 1996 season, when he was riding as an apprentice at Luca Cumani's stable.

He's one of those jockeys who really never gives a horse a chance to dog it in, and sealed his place in my affffffections with a win on Arcady in the last race on Brigadier Gerard Stakes night at Sandown back in 1997 (I know, I know, I don't look old enough..!).

Although a potless student at the time, I was doing my brains in, and was relying on Royston ffor my train fffare home. He didn't let me down, and cajoled the recalcitrant Arcady to a head verdict, with only a neck back to the third. He's rarely let me down since.

On to today's ffare, and we'll start with a review of yesterday's Easy Laying System selections. These were as ffollows:

*Newc 17.00 – Kunte Kinteh* LOST

*Yarm 15.40 – Celtic Memories* LOST
*Yarm 15.40 – Rotation* LOST
Yarm 15.40 – Three No Trumps DNQ
Yarm 16.40 – Lady Romanov DNQ

*Warw 15.50 – Squifffffy* WON 7/1
*Warw 16.20 – Ffeeling Wonderfful* LOST
*Warw 16.50 – Snake Hips* LOST
Warw 16.50 – English Archer DNQ
Warw 16.50 – Hopefful Isabella LOST
Warw 17.20 – Bournonville DNQ


Overall, then, I made it six losers and a 7/1 winner. Applying the usual 5% commission on winning trades and 16% over SP on payouts (and starting with a ffictional £400 bank, risking a rolling 5% or £20 starting stake on each), the scores on the doors after day one are as ffollows:

£400 to £322.

Today's selections to ffollow later.

On the backing ffront, they race today at Ffolkestone but I can't ffind any to back. I just wanted to write Ffolkestone. Sorry.

However, elsewhere, there's plenty catch my eye.

At Newcastle, on soft ground, low numbers have an abominable record on the straight course - avoid them like the plague. Only eight horses drawn in the lowest quintile have won out of 120 starters, ffor a level stakes loss of 88.44 points since 2000. You could just lay everything drawn in the bottom 20%, but I prefer to use this stat to ffind winners today.

Middle to high are ffavoured on the straight course (seven ffurlongs and shorter races). What is VERY interesting is that Racing Post Postdata suggest that low are strongly fffavoured, and that high draw is a negative.

I suspect they don't take account of going conditions, and by the close of play one of us will be right and one will have egg on fface. I'm going to stick with the big numbers, in the hope that we get some value opposing a consensus view.

The Gosfffforth Cup is the big race of the night, and not ffor nothing do the bookies go 6/1 the ffield... Let's have a crack at it anyway!

Caribbean Coral won this race in 2004 on soft ground ffrom a middle draw and has box 14 today. He is one of my three off the tee.

I'll reinffforce him with Orientor, who loves the mud and - I think - is well berthed in 12. Slight reservation about the jockey booking and the horse's longevity in the tooth, but nevertheless he makes my punting triumvirate ffor the race.

My third prong is the best drawn (I believe) in the race, Mecca's Mate. She's a fffive fffurlong soffft ground specialist, with the pick of the traps and, if she doesn't blow it at the start, she'll have a fffine chance.

Elsewhere, David Elsworth has a strong hand at Newmarket tonight, and I especially like his Pathos in the 7.35 (kiss of death ffor that one!).

Fffinally, at Market Rasen, my propensity to try to get a short one beaten leads me to laying Itsmyboy in the three runner novices' chase. My only salvation is that I laid it last night at 4/9 (1.44) and its now trading around 8/13 (1.64), so at least I got the value.

Given that this is Royston Ffrench Ffriday, it would be rude not to nominate the boy ffor a race today, and Dorn Dancer may be his best chance of a winner. She is a 6 ffurlong soft ground specialist, and again is drawn high so, if that's a plus, she must go close. Go on Royston the Boyston! (as we used to shout...)

Back later with Ffriday Ffun and the Easy Laying System selections.

Matt

The Laying System Selections As Promised...

Ok, so here goes... A new system which we will track here for a fortnight. Now, before I crack on with today's selections, a few words about the parameters for this system.

Selections only qualify for laying if their SP is between 3/1 and 15/2 AND their Betfair price is between 4.4 and 10.4.

Compared with the other systems reviewed on these pages previously, the horses we're taking on here are clearly a little longer priced and, as a result, you will need a degree more fortitude and discipline for this if, as could happen, we start with a winner (Heaven forbid!).

So, to the chase... Today's selections, subject to meeting the above price criteria, are:

*Newc 17.00 – Kunte Kinteh*

*Yarm 15.40 – Celtic Memories*
*Yarm 15.40 – Rotation*
Yarm 15.40 – Three No Trumps
Yarm 16.40 – Lady Romanov

*Warw 15.50 – Squiffy*
*Warw 16.20 – Feeling Wonderful*
*Warw 16.50 – Snake Hips*
Warw 16.50 – English Archer
Warw 16.50 – Hopeful Isabella
Warw 17.20 – Bournonville

(Horses noted with a * are currently within the price criteria)

We will lay each qualifiying horse to win our usual notional £20.

Let battle commence!

Matt

Rain Stopped Play... For Me At Least!

Hello team, and welcome to the week's home stretch. Just one more sleep til Friday!

I have to say that, despite there being five meetings today, I've rarely seen a worse case of quantity over quality. I cannot find a single horse to get excited about, either in the context of backing or laying.

Looks like another work day for me... :(

However, the good news is that I've agreed to post the selections from a premium laying service on the blog for the next two weeks. The service is called Easy Money Laying System (we'll see about that!), and it uses a method based on some free ratings available at Adrian Massey's comprehensive site as a start point to identify opposable horses.

Several (twelve!) steps later, and qualifiers are identified, which is why it may be better to let someone else do the legwork...

There are a couple of price related criteria for lays, so not all horses posted will qualify, but more on this when I have today's nags.

Later Mashed Potater

Matt

Anyone For Tennis?

Blimey, is it really Wednesday already?

The sun has popped out for a brief appearance in my leafy corner of Hackney, and my mind has been transported away to the another far flung corner of London, Earlsfield. For those that don't know, this is the nearest town to where the Wimbledon tennis takes place, and it's taking place now. (I'm sure you knew the latter point if not the former!)

Now I must precede the following paragraphs with a disclaimer: I know next to nothing about tennis. However, I have had some fun in the past by trying to find a decent priced one to go far in the tournament (ideally to the final, as you can bet on that).

Notable successes were Sebastien Grosjean and Cedric Pioline at big prices.

This year, I think there is a slightly shorter one who looks to have a decent chance of making the final.

The approach I always take is to dodge the half of the draw with the big champ in (previously Sampras, now Federer). So I'm looking at the top half.

The obvious contender is a new kid on the block, by the name of Novak Djokovic. From the emerging sporting nation of Serbia (they need to sort the racist idiots out though), this boy's only 20, and yet he's already ranked five in the world and seeded four here.

He buried his first round opponent in straight sets, serves like a cannon, and has the height and mobility to trouble most - if not all - players.

I've had a tickle at 32 on betfair to win, and a bit more at 5.8 without the Fed Express.

Ok, that's my token tip for the tennis over. Back to the sport of kings (and princes and paupers).

Today, I'm looking to lay another one. Had a nice touch yesterday with Shaheer rolled over at 8/11, and I'm looking to follow up with a maiden filly from Sir Michael Stoute's stable.

Safwa is her name and she runs in the 2.40 at Salisbury. She finished 5th on debut in a really slowly run time at Goodwood. They finished in a heap that day, with even the 100/1 rags beaten only around four lengths by the Stoute filly.

She will of course improve, but she needs to do so considerably to surpass the level of performance already shown by a number of her rivals here. As a daughter of Green Desert, I'm not convinced she'll handle the ease in the ground either, and I generally find it pays to oppose fillies on their second run when they were apparently unlucky first time out.

Having made what I believe to be a compelling case, and laid her accordingly, I now fully expect her to scoot up unchallenged!

On the backing front, there are a couple of really competitive handicaps at Carlisle on what must be their richest racing day of the season.

The Carlisle Bell over 20 yards short of a mile looks fiercely competitive, and you pays your money and takes your choice. One that may go close, though not a confident selection, is Daaweitza.

A winner of two Class 3 races in his last three runs, this Class 4 race represents an apparent drop in class. I'm not sure of the veracity of that, but the horse is in form, up to the job, and should go on the ground. At 12/1 he should give us a run each way.

Following this cracking battle is another equally insoluble contest for the Cumberland Plate (sounds alright to me, as long as its got a Cumberland sausage on it, with mash, and onion gravy. Mmmm...)

Tcherina was unsuited by the small field last time, and this filly, who did us a favour at York earlier in the season, might go in again.

I'm backing her small stakes to win, along with Diamonds And Dust, and Cotton Eyed Joe.

D&D is a rare flat runner for Ferdy Murphy's resurgent stable. Regular readers will know I'm a fan of this chap, and 20/1 and 50/1 wins at the Festival underlined and emboldened my affection (especially with the 100% inflation available on the exchange)!

He has won his last two all weather starts in lower grade, but has decent turf flat form on an easy surface further back in the book.

Joe with the cotton eyes won nicely last time, after a couple of promising efforts previously. Although he is not the easiest to win with (that was his first turf win at the 14th attempt),
he might now go on from there. Given that the win was around here on the soft side of good, albeit over a slightly longer trip, he has chances.

I expect this to be run at a fair gallop and the front runners to yield to late plodders who can hold a reasonable position mid-rank.

We'll see, but these are my three of the tee.

Just by way of a post script, I've received quite a lot of comments regarding my Laying Seven post, and I'd like to add a couple of points here:

- Brian Mac has the product and is tracking it. So far, over three days, it's performed impressively, and Brian has kindly agreed to try to follow it for a couple of weeks and let me know how it does. (No pressure Brian, if you can't!)

- One of the comments asked how I could track performance prior to laying on the exchanges being available. The answer is that, although I couldn't have laid them, I do have the historical data to see how they performed. I then simply apply the same criteria I apply to all lay bets, i.e. inflated SP by 16%, and a 5% deduction for commission on winning trades.

Hope this helps, and do please keep the comments coming. It sometimes feels a little one way from here, so it's nice when posts like last evening's strike a nerve and you guys respond. Thank you for that and, as I say, please do keep 'em coming.

Happy Humpback Day! (as they say Down Under)
Matt

DO NOT BUY LAYING SEVEN!

I just wanted to put a post here about a new lay product available, called Laying Seven.

You may very well have seen an email about it. I bought a copy with the intention of trialling it on the blog over the next week or so, but I am afraid it will not even make the cut.

The 'system' comprises of six steps. Luckily for us, all of the variables can be researched with my software, so I interrogated it to find out past performance.

Between 1991 and 1997, the horses in question actually made decent profits, meaning that a layer would have lost even before the inflated odds you need to lay on betfair.

Since 1998, you'd have a strike rate of 82.25% (not bad at all), but - after betfair odds on average 16% higher, and paying 5% commission on correct lays, you'd have lost £150!

So, not big losses but certainly not a system I'm going to bother with.

Incidentally, if you used a rolling 5% of your bank per lay, and started with 20 points, you'd have been out of cash pretty quickly.

What narked me still further about this system was the post script:

"Improving Strike Rate

The Second Favourite Laying System should generate
between 80 and 90 % Strike Rate or, stated another way,
80 to 90 of every 100 of your Lay Bets should have a
successful outcome, ie. the horse will lose the event.
If this is not the case, you will have to tighten your
selection criteria along the following lines:

1. Introduce further selection limitations on the "Last Run"
criteria. This may be in terms of an increase to 14 or even
21 days as the time period in which the horse has not had
an outing.

2. Tighten up the "Previous Results" specification to ensure
that the horse has not attained first or second place in three
or more previous outings. Alternatively, specify that it
must not have been placed in the specified number of past
races, ie. 1st, 2nd or 3rd, so a 1, 2 or 3 should not appear in
the Form list for the most recent outings.

The alteration of these criteria should ensure an increase in
Strike Rate but remember that by tightening the criteria
your number of potential selections will reduce
accordingly. Some Laying Systems produce very few
selections, in some cases only a handful every week, but
their Strike Rate is very good, which is the most important
aspect of any Laying System."

Now I don't know about you, but for me a system should not require tweaking. It either works or it doesn't work. Saying, "If this is not the case you will need to tighten your selection criteria" is preposterous. What will the author be doing? Is he suggesting that the system doesn't work himself with this statement?

I have to concede to a belief that the writer of this product, and a number of other (very) similar products, is a fly by night. It's hard to get hold of him, and he uses some fairly sharp practices as well.

There are a number of 'experts' quoted on the sales letter, and at least one of them I am surprised to see associated with this.

My advice is don't buy this - there are much better products available, such as the Racing Secrets [Exposed] system which was reviewed on these pages.

If you've already bought a copy of Laying Seven, you do of course retain the option to request a refund, if you so wish.

I won't be reviewing this product and I will be requesting a refund. Not for me or for the pages of Nag3.

Matt

Un-Claimed Gold

Hello dear reader, and welcome to another Tuesday in my little ethereal punting paradise. First up, a quick bit of admin.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY MUM!

Right, now I've got that off my chest (I don't talk to my mum, and I haven't sent her a card, but she can't say I wasn't thinking of her!), on with the show...

As promised yesterday, I plan to bring you a few snippets from Alan Potts' brilliant and seminal punting text, "The Inside Track".

Although the book was written in 1997, much of its content is as relevant today as it was a decade ago.

Today, I want to look at claiming races and, particularly, some common sense that we should apply to our betting in such races.

Potts begins by making the point that claimers are the staple of American racing. A majority of races Stateside provide the opportunity for the winner to be 'claimed' (i.e. bought for his advertised price) by anyone with the cash available.

Just to complete the understanding for people who may not appreciate what a claiming race is, each horse is allocated weight according to the value that it is in to be claimed (i.e. bought) for.

So, for instance, a race may have the following criteria:

Weights: colts and geldings 9st 5lb; fillies and mares 9st.
Allowances: For each £500 below the maximum advertised claiming price, -1lb

This would mean that if the maximum price was, say, £10,000, and Colt A was advertised at £6,000, he would have 8st 11lb to carry (i.e. 8lbs (for 8 x £500 below the advertised maximum) less than the 9st 5lb).

Filly B who was in for £8,000 would carry 8st 10lb (i.e. 4lbs (for 4 x £500 below the advertised maximum) less than the 9st).

I hope that made a modicum of sense...

Anyway, when you start to think about races in terms of the conditions for horses to run in them, you get more of an indication of the trainers' rationale and should be better placed to strike a wager.

It follows that if a horse is in for £2,000, although it has less weight, the connections clearly don't think much of it to let it go for such a (relatively) measly price. Conversely, if a horse with apparently no form is in for £10,000 (or whatever the maximum is), it may be that the horse is considered a good deal better than it has recently shown.

The point to all of this is that the owners and trainers are acting like the handicappers in the race, by allocating what they consider to be the right balance between horse value and chance of winning.

Potts states, "The assumption... is that weight can bring together horses worth £2,000 with those worth £10,000.

"That is a false assumption, and punters can benefit by concentrating on the higher priced, and therefore higher weighted, horses, in claiming races."

Potts suggests the following three rules to help you with finding claiming winners.

1) Concentrate on horses within £5,000 of the maximum advertised claiming value
2) Give preference to previous form in claiming races over maiden or handicap form
3) Be wary of apparently higher class handicap horses dropping into a claimer - they probably have a problem, which is why connections are trying to get rid...

I messed around with this information in Racing Systems Builder, to test the theory about weight in claimers. The results were in line with Potts' observations, and I derived a lucrative little system as follows:

Claiming Races
2nd Favourite
4yo+
Carrying 9st+
Finished 1st or 2nd in at least one of last six starts
Beaten 6 lengths+ last time

YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% VSP%

2002 8 26 30.77 22.00 84.62 46.72
2003 10 33 30.30 14.25 43.18 34.03
2004 14 36 38.89 22.26 61.83 60.37
2005 10 24 41.67 18.00 75.00 71.70
2006 12 25 48.00 27.91 111.64 112.29
_____________________________________

54 144 37.50 104.42 72.51 63.17

As you can see, although there aren't too many qualifiers (there aren't that many claiming races!), a strike rate of 3 out of 8 and a level stakes profit of £2,088.40 for £20 stakes, makes this worth tracking.

Incidentally, 2 and 3 year olds performed much less well against these criteria. I suspect this is due to their relative lack of exposure.

Racing today is more a literal damp squib than a metaphorical one, with only two meetings surviving the monsoons.

Brighton is a good place to lay favourites, and I'm trying to get Shaheer beaten in - funnily enough - the claiming race there.

I don't really fancy much, so it'll be a day of focusing on other work stuff. :(

Just before I close, another quick plug for Trainer Flat Stats whose sole runner yesterday was a winner, albeit at the skinny price of 10/11. More info is available here.

Ciao pronto
Matt

Back To Blighty With A Bump...

Hello again, dear reader, and I must say it's great to be back.

As much as I love dossing about on a boat in the sunshine, eating gorgeous fresh Mediterranean (or Adriatic to be precise) food, I have to say that I missed you. Sad, and open to questions of sincerity, but I really do enjoy sharing my thoughts on here.

So, having missed my little daily catharses, I am redoubled in my efforts to make this read a bright spot in your day.

So How Was It For You?

Apparently, there was a little horseracing event last week... ;) I've seen the results, though none of the races, and - judging by the SP's - finding winners was tough but rewarding.

The going changes would have made life still more difficult no doubt. I wonder, did they go under the trees in the races around the turn? That would have rendered the Ascot round the turn system less effective.

Well, I'm happy to report that I broke even on the week. I had no bets, no losers, and no winners, and my feet are itchy for action.

TFS Performance

As you know, due to limited access to email last week, I was posting the TrainerFlatStats runners here. TFS is a slightly different animal to the laying systems, and it's not for everyone as there are fairly frequent losing runs.

These are offset by nice priced winners, such as yesterday's 7/1 gold medallist, Thewhirlingdervish.

Overall, the week was as follows:

15 qualifiers (after non-runners and 16/1+ horses excluded)
4 winners (one dead heat)
£85 profit to normal £20 stakes
£120 profit if using betfair

You can find out more about TrainerFlatStats at www.trainerflatstats.com or from the Premium Systems tab on the nag3 homepage (www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk)

The Inside Track

One of the good things about the sailing week in Croatia was that I re-read a brilliant book called 'The Inside Track'. It's written by Alan Potts, a pro punter, and is absolutely packed with fantastic good sense and betting tips. I'll relay some of these to you over the coming days, and heartily recommend it.

I was surprised pleasantly to recognise how far my own punting has evolved since I first read the book, and how much of his ideas have absorbed themselves in my own strategy.

I think this is a key point for anyone even semi-serious about their betting: there is no silver bullet for finding winners (or losers). Rather, you have to adapt different people's ideas, in conjunction with your own, to produce a pastiche that fits your mindset.

This of course is an iterative process that lasts as long as you punt, because trends always change. What worked last season is not guaranteed to work this season.

Today

I fancy one at Windsor tonight. The usual high draw bias is reversed on genuinely soft ground, which it is likely to be tonight. Brendan Powell was a great friend of TrainerTrackStats punters over the winter, and he is most definitely a trainer going places.

You'd be well served to look out for anything he runs, as they're popping up at juicy prices regularly enough.

Tonight he saddles Eau Good, who is a well drawn course and distance runner, who stays further than this. He is proven on the ground and - at around 15/2 looks cracking value.

Right, it's high time I caught up with some work. Until next post...
Matt

sunday's TFs runners

Last foreign post and back in circulation tomorrow. Sunday's runners, subject to being 14/1 or shorter are Harvest Warrior in 3.10 at Pontefract and Thewhirlingdervish in 4.10 Pontefract.

saturday's trainerflatstats runners

tomorrow's tfs runners, subject to being 14/1 or shorter: haydock 8.45 Tutor 9.15 Mutajarred Newmarket 1.40 Hot Diamond and Saviour sand. 4.55 Sonning Star.

Thursday and Friday TrainerFlatStats Runners

These are the next two days qualifiers, subject to being 14-1 or shorter:

Thursday

Ascot
4.55 Rallying Cry
Glen Nevis

Ripon
1.40 Boomtown
2.10 Upper Class

Friday

Ascot
4.55 Eastern Anthem

Ayr
4.45 Prince Evelith

Musselburgh
8.20 Wahoo Sam

Newmarket
7.05 Zamboozle
Art Investor
8.10 Its A Dream
8.40 Horseford Hill
Two Timer
9.10 Stravinskys Art

Matt

wednesday's trainerflatstats runners

No TFS qualifiers tomorrow. Sorry for brevity. Will catch up when internet connection allowed.

Tuesday's Trainerflatstats Runners

Hello again from the sun drenched Adriatic coast, dear reader. Its truly beautiful here. Managed to burn myself today. Enough already. Tomorrow's TFS qualifier, subject to being 14/1, is General Feeling in the 4.05 at Thirsk. Matt

Wow, Its Hot Hot Hot (And Tomorrow's TrainerFlatStats Runners

Short Sunday post from me today. Its sweltering here, and beautiful. The Adriatic really is a gorgeous place. Great food, amazing scenery, fantastic weather, beautiful (but disinterested) women, and cheap beer. What more could a man ask for?

So I have to concede to being a little bored already. I'm not much of a lounger, and I really miss access to my email and connectivity generally. Sad!

The main business of this post is to advise of tomorrow's TrainerFlatStats runners. There are none.

Have a relaxing Sunday.

Bored Matt

Tomorrow's trainerflatstats runners

There are no TFS qualifiers tomorrow, Sunday. And I officially detest airports.

Weekly Tidy Up

If its anything like the weather here where you are, its a thoroughly miserable start to the weekend.

York is already off and there may be others to follow. Definitely keep your eye out for horses that act with cut, and sires whose influence is for soft ground progeny. (Incidentally, I love Inchinor's in the rain, though the stats don't necessarily bear that out. Josephine Malines in the 2.30 at Salisbury tomorrow may be worth a cursory glance).

Just to tidy up the Bank Vault Report figures for the week, we ended up with 19 out of 26 (73%) losers, and all of the first horses lost, which was nice. :)

The link to the Bank Vault Report page again:

http://tinyurl.com/2u83w7

(as I was writing that, The Simpsons came to mind: "That name again is Mr Plow". If you haven't seen this one, google it. It could be the best episode ever, in the face of fierce competition!)

To other business, and due to my limited access to internet next week, and email especially, I will be posting the TrainFlatStats runners here on the blog, from Monday to Saturday.

I will also send the occasional other post, though be warned that they may not necessarily be racing related, as I will be sunning myself wantonly on a 50ft yacht in the Adriatic...

At Sandown today, it looks a tough card, but one that must go well in the Scurry Stakes at 3.35 is Hoh Mike. He likes soggy turf and has the measure of most of these. The Irish raider is feared, but will have to step up. On form in the book, Mike should win and 2/1 (betfair) looks reasonable. I've had a little nibble.

Finally, a quick (and belated) mention for connections of Bavarica, who won the amateur riders' race on Thursday at Newbury.

Regular readers will recall my distaste of betting on anything other than professional horsemanship. And so it was this day - no wager.

Bavarica however was winning for dear old Julia Feilden, trainer of Rapid City (in whom I own a bit) and Spirit of Sharjah (primed for a nice run at Royal Ascot this week).

More than that, the horse is owned by the Hoofbeats Racing Club, Julia's own club.

And yet more than that, Bavarica was the first winner for Mr R Birkett (7). Mr R Birkett (7) is Ross, and he just happens to be Julia's son. I was talking to him at Kempton the other week and he was telling me how much he wanted to get the monkey off his back. Well, you've done that now Ross. Well done boy!

Good weekend to all, and take care punting - its going to be a soggy minefield out there!

Matt

The Bank Vault Report Review: An Excellent Week's Results

So now we’ve reached the end of the week, it’s time to review the Bank Vault Report, the system that has been generating the lays posted on this blog since Monday.

The system works by looking for favourites that adhere to a clear set of criteria which, for obvious reasons, I can’t share here.

The idea is to find five of these ‘dodgy’ favourites and lay them in turn until you get your target profit for the day. Essentially, ‘stop at a loser’.

Now, before you start, you should use the supplied calculator software, to establish your maximum liability for the day. It’s important that if you are not comfortable with the final figure (if all five horses lost), that you lower your target profit for the day, or perhaps wait for tomorrow.

The selections are then taken in sequence with the first one layed to win a certain amount of money, your target profit.

If the horse loses, and therefore you win, that’s it for the day. Go and make a cup of tea and get on with some proper work! However, if the first horse wins, and therefore you lose, we move onto Nag 2.

On Nag 2, we must lay to lose our lost cash from Nag 1 plus our daily profit target. If it loses, it’s tea time. If it wins, we move onto Nag 3 (good name for a website methinks!), and perhaps have an Irish coffee.

If Nags 3 and 4 also win (remember, the scenario here is that we have taken on four eminently opposable favourites, and they have all won: unlikely but it can happen), we are in the toilet with a whisky awaiting the outcome of Nag 5’s performance.

During our week trialling Bank Vault Report, the first horse has lost every day, which is great. A system like this, however, does really require a longer trial to prove its mettle. In the absence of a licence to do that here, I have the records of one BVR punter from last year (thanks Kev):

“I kept an accurate record of the first 29 bets.

15 lost and 14 won (came first)

of the 14 that went to the 2nd rung of the ladder, 7 lost and 7 won

of the 7 that went to the third rung, 3 lost and 4 won

of the 4 that went to the 4th rung, 3 lost and 1 won

the 1 then lost.”

So, in 29 days, there was one brown trouser day, which is probably fairly indicative.

Kev also mentioned that his greatest exposure for the ‘Day of the Pantalons Brun’ was £370 to win £15 (his daily profit target). Extrapolating that up, over 29 days, he was £435 to the good, and could have dropped back to £65 to the good had things gone the shape of an unfashionable fruit that used to be used in cider making.

So I hope I’ve sounded a clear enough note of caution here. Comments from readers (thanks Scott and Kev), which appear very fair to me, rightly identify that it will not always be sweetness and light. But if you take a medium to long term view, I’m pretty confident that the system will show a nice profit. How much depends on those ‘cast iron undergarment’ days of course.

So how has Bank Vault Report fared in the trial?

At the time of writing, and with a few more to run this evening, the scores on the doors are as follows:

Selections: 23 (up to and including 5.15 Market Rasen tonight)

Losers: 17

Lose %: 74%

Highest Liability: £27

The results this week have been excellent, and the number of horses beaten really adds weight to the strength of the system, inasmuch as every day we’ve got at least three from five beaten. This means that there have been at least three ‘take the money’ opportunities in each streak of five.

As with all systems reviewed here at Nag3, BVR comes with a full money back guarantee. If it’s not your cup of tea, no problem: though, that said, having read this and tracked it all week, you have a good idea what’s involved!

To read more about Bank Vault Report, and to secure your copy, visit:

http://tinyurl.com/2u83w7

Friday Fun: Webcam Abuse!

This guy is clearly narcotically enhanced.

Absolutely marvellous, camper than the proverbial row of rouge tents, and don't miss the superb eyebrow moment around about 58 seconds!

Another 5 from 6 Beaten, Plus Some Important Admin...

Aah, the unmistakable aroma of Friday...

Well done dear reader, for you've nearly made it through another week of whatever toil is yours for the toiling.

And with some luvvly jubbly lays to boot, if you've been tracking progress with us this week. I'll post my review this evening after (at least most of) today's lays have run.

Speaking of which, here is today's juice... (Please read on for an important admin bulletin)

14.00 MR JACKANOO @2.7

17.15 MR KILCANNON SUPREME @2.4

18.10 Clon COUSIN LIZZIE @2.6

18.50 Good DREAM OF FORTUNE @2.6

19.35 Chep ASHMAL @2.7

19.45 Clon SMILE LATER @2.5


Now then, due to my utter inability to plan my way out of bed in the mornings, I have managed to stow away on a mate's boating trip on the Adriatic in Royal Ascot week. Nothing wrong with the Adriatic, indeed there's a lot right with it. But Royal Ascot week! Buffoon!

This, you may not know, follows on from missing Royal Ascot last year, due to agreeing to meet my Estonian (ex-)girlfriend's parents in Parnu, Estonia, in - you guessed it Royal Ascot week. Now I won't go so far as to suggest that it was the beginning of the end for that relationship (I've a million faults and foibles that saw that fine young lady away, gambling being only one of them! (Beer and other women numbering among the others...)), but it cannot have helped.

Enough of my planning ineptitude... Would you believe I actually gave up a job as a Senior IT Management Consultant to do this. I got paid to plan. I'm so ashamed.

Ok, dirty planning laundry now aired - my, this is cathartic - let's move on with the deal.

I have established (as you may have seen from last night's test post) that I can actually blog from my mobile phone. This in itself is nothing short of miraculous. So there will be some content here next week. However, it may or may not relate to the main equine business of the week, depending on whether a) I have access to wifi / internet and b) I can get any kind of signal offshore.

To mitigate for the fact that I won't be here next week to share my - ahem - pearls of wisdom with you, I have done a spot of research that you may find of interest.

Have a look at the free systems page, and you will find an 'Ascot On The Turn' system, which looks like it may be worth following.

That's all for now, but I'll be back later with the Bank Vault Review, plus some Friday Fun, AND a special bonus due to my absence next week. I really do spoil you! ;)

Matt

this is a test post from my mobile phone. Please ignore.

As I'll be on holiday from saturday, i'm trying to see if there is technology that will enable me to blog from far flung places. If you end up reading this on my blog, that means you'll also be getting my 'fun in the sun' updates next week! Lucky you. :-)

Running Late: Today's Bank Vault Report Lays

Sorry, running very late today.

Today's lays as follows:

14.20 Yarm SIR GEORGE @2.1

14.50 Yarm DISTANT NOBLE @2.7

18.35 Font COCKATOO @2.2

19.35 Font CARTYS CROSS @2.5

19.45 Uttox BAGAN @2.7

20.35 Font CAPE STORMER @2.5

Matt

3 From 4 Beaten: Bank Vault Report Strikes Again

A two part post today, dear reader. In this post, we'll review yesterday's action before posting today's thoughts and, of course, the Bank Vault Report selections, later.

Yesterday, our first selection, Birkside, was a non-runner, meaning that the first horse we laid was Thinking Positive. He was always well held in second, and never looked like winning.

So, again, the first horse in the sequence was beaten, meaning we now have a profit of £60 on the week, with a maximum liability of £27 (for yesterday's 2.7 favourite).

I sincerely hope that we will have the first horse win once this week, so that I can illustrate the progressive nature of the staking plan!

Incidentally, in terms of confidence factors, two of the other three horses were also beaten, meaning that this week we've got eleven out of fifteen lays correct to date. As I mentioned previously, this gives me a little more comfort that if the first horse does actually win, one (or more) of the animals we've loaded up behind it, will get turned over.

Today's selections will follow later.

As for my backing choices yesterday, well it was a mixed bag. Flying Bantam won nicely, as suggested, at 9/2, which was generous in my opinion. From the highest draw, he was always handy and charged through a split a furlong out. The first four home were drawn 14, 13, 11 and 10 out of 14 runners (and the horse drawn 12 was a non-runner!). The forecast paid £103.02 and the tricast over £500!

Unfortunately for me, I decided to adopt the 'perm high numbers' strategy on the 5 furlong sprint rather than the 7 furlong contest. Bugger! Confoundingly, the winner of this contest was drawn in trap 1!

Trap 1 also won the five furlong race here at the last meeting, and I am certain that the ground staff have done something to the drainage on that part of the track. (The only part the five furlong stretch shares with the other distances is the last furlong and a half or so). The only consistent observation from the two sprint races is that middle draws were clearly unfavoured. The last three home were drawn 7,8,9 of 15.

For now then, we will definitely be avoiding draw biases on the 5f course.

So Beverley yesterday was a case of 'great call, wrong race'!

Onwards and downwards... More later, including today's Bank Vault Report lays, and maybe some more of my own crackpot racing theories. M

Blimey - 5 out of 6 Rolled Over! Day Three Selections

A warm Wednesday welcome dear reader, for it is the middle of the week. :)

Yesterday, the Bank Vault Report managed to get a whopping five out of six lay selections beaten! Alas, we're only supposed to nominate five horses, so we'll exclude the last one and just claim four out of five. ;)

Importantly, from a progression perspective, the first horse yesterday, La Guancha, was a loser, which means - for the second day - there was no staking increment required to cover previous losses on the day.

So after Day Two, we are showing £40 profit and a maximum liability of £27 (what we'd have lost if La Guancha had won, it being a bigger price than the previous day's first selection).

Today's choices are:

15.00 Brig BIRKSIDE @2.0

16.10 Nott THINKING POSITIVE @2.2

16.50 Bev TRIVIA @2.7

19.20 Kemp DOUBLE BILL @2.7

21.00 Leop WESTLAKE @2.3


On the backing front, I managed to get Amanda Carter beaten at Redcar, but my e/w shout High Five Society could only manage 5th at 20/1. Interestingly, the winner (Sir Duke) was having his first handicap run after the obligatory three maiden efforts. These types are always worth noting, as they pop up pretty frequently. The Duke was a tidy 12/1. In fairness, though, I've rarely seen a poorer race.

Up at Chester, and the draw continues to confound me. Trap 8 won the sprint, meaning my box one and two theory went west again.

However, I did call H Harrison's race to the letter, with the horse sitting in behind the speed and quickening in the last furlong to win all out. 7/2 was a surprisingly fat return too.

Today there is racing at Beverley, and one of the strongest draw biases in the country will again be on parade. High numbers are paramount at this track, almost regardless of the distance of the race.

In the 2.50 Flying Bantam has a lot going for him from cage 14 (of 14), and will be tough to beat.

For a fun bet, in the 4.20 (a 5 furlong fillies' handicap - not normally my idea of fun!), I will perm the top four stalls (14-17) in combination exactas and straight forecasts (half stake on each). That's Minimum Fuss (16/1), Violet's Pride (16/1), Muara (6/1) and Princess Cleo (7/1).

Will be nice if it comes off! Small stakes fun wager only though, for sure.

That's all for now.
Matt

A Great Start: Day 2 Bank Vault Report Lays Attached.

Good morning to you, dear reader, and welcome to Day 2 of the Bank Vault Report review.

If you remember from yesterday, we are aiming to win a target £20 per day, using a progressive staking system with horses that are selected by the secret method in the Bank Vault Report.

Yesterday, the first horse lost, which means that we won our £20 with a maximum liability of £23 (the horse, Toi Express, was quoted at 2.3 - the price available at 8 am yesterday - and we'll use the prices quoted in the example for the purposes of the review).

Incidentally, an interesting point to track is how many of the selections get beaten. Although of course we only need one to lose to make our money on the day, it is heartening to see more horses beaten as this gives me more confidence that the role of luck will be only peripheral in the selection process.

Today's selections are as follows:

15.00 Redc LA GUARDIA @2.7

15.55 Sals CAPE VELVET @2.5

15.45 Sals APPLEBY @2.4

16.00 Redc HENRY BERNSTEIN @2.7

18.45 Chest BRASSINI @2.6

21.00 Worc CORNELIUS @2.2

From a backing perspective, again my desire to get the short priced ones beaten has surfaced, and I'm looking to oppose Amanda Carter in the 5.30 at Redcar. She's odds on in a handicap and, although she won well enough last time, there is always value in opposing odds on in handicaps, even if just trying to find a placed horse for an each way tickle.

So let's go each way tickling... it is fair to say that this is a poor race, so small stakes only. But I like the profile of High Five Society. Bred for this kind of trip, and having been contesting slightly better races recently, Paul Eddery's mount might be the type to hit the board at around 16/1. Disappointly for punters here, there are only 15 runners, so no fourth place payout.

Elsewhere, and they race at Chester tonight. Everyone knows about the low draw bias on the Roodeye in sprints, and yet there's still value to be had there. Let's side with the nags berthed one and two, Kings College Boy and Foxy Music respectively.

In the 7.45, over seven furlongs, H Harrison looks to have a great chance. He's likely to be held up just behind what should be a strong gallop and, if the slowing traffic ahead can be negotiated, he may very well win again. 11/4 to looks pretty fair value to me.

Good luck today, more from me tomorrow.
Matt

The Bank Vault System: Intro and Selections

Hello again, dear reader, and welcome to Monday's bulletin. As promised, and slightly later than planned, this week we're going to be tracking a system called the Bank Vault Report.

I've had hold of it for a week or so now, and it looks interesting. But of course the proof of the pudding is always in the eating (or, in our case, the punting).

So what is the Bank Vault Report all about? Well, the first thing to say is that it is a laying system, i.e. (as I'm sure you know by now), finding horses to get beaten.

The nature of the system is that it is progressive, and therefore not necessarily to everyone's tastes. By 'progressive', I mean that each day we will identify five horses to lay, and we will quit when we've layed a loser.

In practice, this might work like so:

Horse A has odds of 2.0 (i.e. evens)
Horse B has odds of 2.5 (6/4)
Horse C has odds of 2.2 (6/5)
Horse D has odds of 1.8 (4/5)
Horse E has odds of 2.0 (evens)

Before we start, we must do two things:

1) Decide how much we are aiming to win, and
2) Calculate what our total liability would be if we were to be unsuccessful with all five horses. Note, its extremely unlikely that all five horses will win (and therefore we lose), but it can happen, and we need to plan for this upfront, and be comfortable with it.

Ok, so let's say we want to win £10. We would lay the first horse for £10 at 2.0. If it loses, job done for the day, as we have our required tenner, and we move on to tomorrow. (I've ignored exchange commissions in this example, which may eat up to 50p from that £10 return).

But if Horse A wins, we then move to horse B, where we are now trying to win £20 (i.e. our £10 daily target, plus the £10 losing stake in the first race). Thus, in this example, we would be staking £30 on Horse B losing. Again, if Horse B loses, that's it for the day. We've made our money and we stop.

So it goes on through up to five horses. In this example, in the extremely unlikely event that all five horses won, we would have a total liability of £386.

Clearly, then, it is very important to know what that number is prior to starting, so if you're not comfortable with it, you aim to win a smaller amount of money until the bank starts growing.

You don't need to worry about doing the maths, as the Bank Vault Report comes with a handy bit of software called the lay calculator, which does the sums for you. (Beware though, it doesn't seem to like my Windows Vista machine. But then, nor does most of the rest of my previously perfectly compatible software! Vista stinks! Big time!)

The Bank Vault Report system makes a couple of very important stipulations about the horses which you should be looking to oppose. Of course, I can't divulge these, as that is the nub of the system.

However, I can say that these 'hidden keys' are very logical and effective.

So, enough of the preamble. Today's lay selections are as follows (remember we will stop when we've made our target profit):

14.30 NA TOI EXPRESS @2.3

16.30 NA KEEP IT SECRET @2.7

19.15 Pont ALAMBIC @2.4

20.15 Pont EXPENSIVE @2.5

20.55 Rosc BIG SYD @2.7

Throughout the week (until Friday), I'll keep track of where we are, what our biggest liability was, and so on, for a notional target profit of £20 per day.

If you want to know a little more about the Bank Vault Report, and just can't wait until Friday, you can have a sneak peek here:

http://tinyurl.com/2u83w7

That's all for now.
Matt

Once Too Often To The Well...

After five losing lays, yesterday the spell was broken in no uncertain fashion by Munsef, a horse who I was quite unkind about.

In fairness, his overall record is patchy at best. But yesterday he was way too good for his opposition.

Today though we will try again, and I actually fancy two to get rolled over.

The first runs at Bath in the first race, and is called Midnight Fling. Roger Charlton, the filly's trainer, is a brilliant handler, but is currently 0 from 3 with his 2yo's, and this one - who was his first juvenile runner on debut - is almost certainly not one of the yard's leading players.

Allied to that, and the main reason I'm happy to oppose her is that she is drawn in stall 14. Sprint races favour the rails runner strongly, and she will have to travel at least five or six lengths further than those berthed in boxes one to five.

Both Aide Memoire and Star in the East have advantageous draws, and I'd be surprised if something didn't get the better of Midnight Fling.

For my second lay, I will go North to Perth (the northernmost racecourse in UK no less), and I will take on a pair of racing personalities who I cannot abide.

Nicky Richards seems to me to be an arrogant man, and not a shadow of his illustrious father, in terms of either ability or comportment. And quite why Rose Davidson still gets to ride his better horses is a frustration to me from a betting perspective (she cost TrainerTrackStats followers plenty last season).

So I'm happy to lay Middleton Dene on those personal aspects alone. Add in the fact that that the horse has never won outside of a low grade bumper, and takes on a dual winner and a couple of other potential improvers, and I will take my chances.

From tomorrow, we'll be tracking the performance of the Bank Vault Report in these messages, so there'll be less of my personal lay opinions on these pages.

I'll also bring you a lucrative little flat racing system at some stage during the week, so look out for that too.

For now though, enjoy your Sunday, and may it be restful and, if you're having a bet, profitable.

Matt

Dog Races

Yesterday's even money loser brought the week to five from five on the losers front, and I'm starting to receive fan mail! (I'm certain that won't last!!)

More interesting is that people are writing to me telling me about how they're loving Racing Secrets [Exposed]. Comments such as, "Another 4 losers today (3 unplaced Mr. Aviator 2nd by 3/4 l). All between 6.2 & 7.2 but it was obvious they were going to lose, like a Championship team taking on 3 Premiership teams."

In my final plug for this excellent product, I highly recommend you check it out here:

http://tinyurl.com/377z6p



Lots of racing today, but very little class.

I think the theme of the afternoon is summed up by the 2.50 at Goodwood. A ten grand race between just four professional losers. If ever a Saturday epitomised the calm before the storm that is Royal Ascot, this is it.

I'll take on Munsef in this race, not because he is the poorest horse in the race, nor because he can't win. Just because he is a dog. Granted, he's running against three other dogs, and may outbark them. But at 9/10 on betfair, this is a low risk lay, and one where I'm prepared to be wrong at the odds. Let's put it this way: I wouldn't have Munsef as a placepot banker with your money...

Also, given that yesterday's evens loser makes it five from five for the week, and the bank is growing, I'm getting greedy!

I don't really fancy much today on the backing front, and instead I shall be barbecuing in Bournemouth, with my good mate Dan, who will be 35 tomorrow. Happy Birthday, you old ba5tard! (He's actually younger than me, but we won't let that get in the way of some good old fashioned age-related banter!)

If you do want one to follow, then Ordnance Row ran an excellent race when third from an impossible draw at Epsom last Friday. He also raced the next day, and was outpointed (possibly knackered?) in the Group 3 won by Blythe Knight.

He should run very well at around 5/1 with betfair.

Good luck with your weekend wagering. No promise of a post tomorrow, as I may not have access to an internet connection. But if I can bring you a lay selection, I will.

Pip Pip!
Matt

Friday Fun: For The Ladies...

This is reasonably amusing, and is especially for Jeremy. You know who you are...!

We're On A Roll... Losing Lays Galore!

Happy Friday, dear reader. Especially so if you've been following the lay advice in this column over the last few days. Two more losers yesterday made it four from four for the week.

Better still, they were both odds on, at 8/11 and 4/7. Which means not too much risk on the liability side.

I use a couple of key criteria to find my lays, both of which are in the excellent (I'm beginning to like it more and more as time passes!) Racing Secrets [Exposed] guide that I reviewed here a couple of weeks ago.

You can read the review (if you haven't already) here.

Regular readers will know that I was planning to start tracking another lay product, called the Bank Vault Report, today. Unfortunately, I don't have time to set that up today, but will certainly be ready to share it with you on Monday.

Today's action looks good. One of my alternative Ten To Follow lines up at Brighton. The horse is called Crossing The Line and is trained by one Sir Mark Prescott. Three runs over six furlongs last year, and here he is running over a mile and a quarter. Its a classic Prescott setup, and I'm expecting him to finish better than 8th for the first time in his career.

(You can read the full ten to follow piece on April 5th's blog entry, or type in 'ten to follow' on the search page at www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk

On the laying front, there are a few that look worthy of opposition, and I'll mention just one here.

I'm going to oppose Speedy Senorita in the opener at Catterick. She has finished second on both her starts, and is trained by the in form Karl Burke with the excellent Frannie Norton doing the driving.

However, the form of her two runner up placings is moderate at best, and the Portman filly, Pretty Bonnie, arguably achieved more in her sole start to date. I do have a nagging doubt about this daughter of Kyllachy handling the very fast ground, and there is no such reservation about the Speedy Senorita, whose debut was here on firm turf.

Style Award was only beaten half a length by Burke's filly when both were making their debuts here, and this young lady has arguably the more progression, given that she has only had the one run, to SS's two runs.

I think Speedy Senorita can win this race, but I also believe that there are at least two with experience who can also win it. And that's even before you consider the debutantes, some of whom are from good stables. At around even money, she is one to be against for me.

Best of Luck to you, and I'll be back later with some Friday Fun...

More Jammy Than Jam...

Poor old Mighty Fine. No sooner had the trainer been interviewed by the loveable but inept tipster, Luke Harvey (excellent presenter, can't pick his nose!), than "Sedgefield's own Desert Orchid" was carried out by an early faller.

Tough luck on the old boy, but good luck for those of you who followed the lay selection yesterday.

The each way pick, Alfresco, travelled like a dream in a hot race run at a fast pace, but didn't pick up when Jimmy Fortune started getting frantic.

Maybe its the hangover impairing my judgement, maybe I'm just getting cocky after a couple of successful lays, but I've rowed in with two very short ones to oppose today.

Purple Emperor is the first. With Frankie Dettori and Godolphin both in fine form, this beast is going to be sent off around 11/10 (currently trading at 6/5) on betfair. But the form of his debut is only above average, and I think there are horses represented much stronger maiden form (notably Walking Talking, who will improve for the step up in distance today).

For all that, the Emperor will be tough to beat granted improvement from his initial run, which seems highly likely. I just can't help but take on skinny favourites!

My second choice is even shorter, currently trading around 4/7 on the exchange. Kavatcha is the mount of A P McCoy and is saddled by the Junior Pipe, who has made such an impressive start to his training career (could it ever have been another way?)

This is not a great race, despite there being four last time out winners and another three in the frame on their previous start. But, as a consequence, it is quite a competitive race.

The time of Kavatcha's win was sloooooooooow, and this race is likely to be run at more of a clip. It could find a few of these out, who won in slooooooooow races themselves last time, and I'll take a chance that Kavatcha is one of those that cannot handle the increased tempo.

Other news, and after a heated debate with my gym partner and betfair trader about the merits of Crouch and Beckham in the England camp, you can all rest assured that I've reminded him of their import in the game last night.

Regardless of the fact that we were 'only' playing Estonia, Croatia only put one past them, and England just had more life and desire with Beckham providing service, and Crouch terrifying small people in the penalty area.

There will of course be tougher games to come, but Beckham has made it very hard for the coach to turn his back on him now.

One other superstar returns to his metier today, with the long awaited (by me at least) seasonal debut of the one K Fallon, Esq.

He takes a couple of rides for Aidan O'Brien tonight at Tipperary (to where, incidentally, it is a very long way).

I have never made any secret of my love for this man's talent, and the fact that he suffers the same 'human' malaises of so many only makes him more endearing to me.

I don't condone drug use or race fixing, obviously, but I do know that if I have a bet on a flat race, I don't want ANYBODY riding my horse more than K Fallon. He and A P McCoy are simply different gravy, in terms of picking a horse up and carrying it the last furlong to the finish line.

Welcome back, buddy!

Finally, just a quick note to let you know that from tomorrow, I will be reviewing another lay product on the market in real time here. The guide is called, 'The Bank Vault Report', and has had some promising reviews elsewhere.

We'll be tracking its performance for a few days (possibly a week) on these pages, so watch this space from tomorrow.

Matt

p.s.Incidentally, if you haven't already, you can still get your copy of Racing Secrets [Exposed] by clicking this sentence..

p.p.s. You can sign up for automatic notifications of new posts to this blog, by sending a blank email to nag@getresponse.com, or by clicking the link in this sentence. You can unsubscribe again at any time, should you so wish. But why would you?! ;)

And A Dollop Of Jam...

Good morning all, and welcome to Wednesday. By the time you leave work tonight, you'll be nearer the end of the week than the beginning. :)

Your humble scribe is somewhat bleary-eyed as he writes this, after another bout of that pesky insomnia (been up since 4.30am!). I need to drink more - don't seem to have problems sleeping then..!

Well, yesterday was a good day that could have been a great day. The back selection, Smile For Us, failed by only half a length to make us smile at 12/1. Still, a small each way wager saw its place part cashed around 3/1.

The winner, Vegas Boys, is due to go up in the weights by the best part of a stone in the next few days, but I wouldn't bank on that stopping him. He wasn't best drawn here, and took what can only be described as a circuitous route to get to the rail. When daylight came, he didn't need a second invitation and catapulted clear to win cosily, and pretty much on the bridle. He's got two entries on Friday (Goodwood and Brighton), so we might stake the chips (geddit, stake and chips? Oh, please yourself) on the Vegas Boys again.

The horse that beat him last time out, Osiris Way, is also one to watch for. He's not currently entered up, but is on a hattrick himself and will take some catching.

The lay selection is still running... Newtonian was rightly nominated as a horse to struggle with a pedestrian gallop. And so it proved as the 5/2 joint favourite finished plum last, beaten 31 lengths! Cherry on the top was that I also mentioned, and backed, Mahmjra as the likely winner (took 4/1, returned 5/2).

So a good day indeed.

I have to say that whilst I wasn't specifically following the Racing Secrets [Exposed] methodology, a couple of the system elements have found their way into my lay assessment process and I find them really useful.

The pick of these is a very easy way of establshing the relative ability of a horse, in order to determine whether to lay it or not. I can't divulge this for obvious reasons, but suffice it to say that when you see it, its a 'no brainer'.

To today, and first, an interesting point I noted from the Racing Post. Peter Chapple-Hyam is having an awesome campaign, spearheaded naturally by Authorized, his Derby winner.

But TrainerFlatStats punters were already expecting great things of 'The Tubby One', as he is flagged up as one of the 'Six of the Best Trainers To Follow' this season, specifically with his two year old colts outside of handicap company. The nursery handicaps have yet to start, so basically we're just tracking his young boys.

To date, four have run, one twice. From those five starts, there have been three wins, and two placed efforts. Given that the winners were 5/1, 9/2 and 9/4, and the seconds were at 5/1 and 11/8, that's pretty impressive.

The 'Trainers to Follow' is just one of four bonus guides that accompany TrainerFlatStats, all of which are designed to help you optimize your betting experience.

To Wednesday's fare, and I like one in the 8.40 at Kempton. At face value, this looks a fiendishly difficult race. And it probably is. But the reason I like the race is because the market seems to have been framed around two horses, when there are any number in with a chance.

Favourite is likely to be Sir Mark Prescott's improving colt, Tilapia. Although he's won on this surface at Lingfield, his recent winning has been on the softer stuff at Southwell. He is in good heart but, off top weight, I reluctantly pass him over. (Regular readers will know how dangerous this is - simply following Prescott blindly in handicaps with runners at less than 14/1 would have earnt you a profit every year for the last five years!)

The other hype horse in the race, who I suspect will drift in the betting, is Marcus Tregoning's Sea Land. He followed up a debut second at Lingfield, with a facile win over the same seven furlongs in weak maiden company. The ratings suggest he didn't improve from the first run to the second (didn't need to in fairness), and he's been off the track for three months too. This is a warm race, and with the question marks I'd want around 7 or 8/1 before taking a chance with this one.

So where will the Bisogno shilling fall today?

I liked Pat Eddery as a jockey, and I'm beginning to like him as a trainer. He and Walter Swinburn have made promising starts to their respective training careers, albeit supported by some fairly wealthy owners, as well as canny employment of racing syndicates.

And its Eddery's syndicate horse, Alfresco, who could see us dining out tonight. On first glance, form figures of 13-10-6-2-1-1-9-7 look a bit of a mixed bag. But if you concentrate only on the dirt numbers, this becomes a much more interesting and consistent 6-2-1-1. That quartet of runs was at Leafy (that's Lingfield to you), and the surface here is pretty well aligned.

The one thing with this horse is he needs to be produced late, as he's a bit of a dosser. Expect him to travel like a dream off what should be a pretty fast pace, before Jimmy Fortune (a good strong jockey) starts battering him in the last 330 yards.

I reckon he has a very solid each way chance, and I'll be having a little tickle win and place.

For a lay, I'm not keen on Cedar Mountain in another hot race, but will let him go as a) he's from John Gosden's yard, who I always get wrong, and b) he's a potential big improver.

Lord Deevert also looks pretty opposable at Lingfield in what is an appalling contest to start the card there. Gizmondo has the proverbial mountain to climb in the last as well, in my book at least.

But I'll be ignoring all these, instead taking on the geriatric plodder, Mighty Fine. Although he's on the hattrick and is an impressive six from twelve at Sedgefield, its a competitive seller (if that's not an oxymoron!), and he's giving half a stone plus all round, even allowing for his conditional jockey's claim.

Finding one to beat him is tough, but of course I don't need to, as I have fifteen running for me! At around 2/1, he'll do for me as the one not to be on.

Good luck to you with your Wednesday wagers.
Matt
p.s. If you don't already get notified when a new post appears on this blog, you can get automatic prompts by sending a blank email to nag@getresponse.com

Back To Bread And Butter...

After the fun in the sun of the Epsom Derby meeting, its now back to the bread and butter stuff until Royal Ascot (starts Tuesday 19th June).

For all that it is pretty uninspiring fare, there are still winners to be wagered and losers to be layed.

Lingfield host one of their few turf meetings today and, traditionally on faster ground, there is a slight bias towards high numbers on the sprint track.

So, I'll take a look at the 3.45, an 18 runner handicap over the straight six furlongs, for my horse to back.

The obvious start point is Vegas Boys, who is in great form, and beat all bar the progressive Osiris Way last time. He should run a solid race, but is high enough in the weights (conceding all round here) and might not be too well boxed.

Joy And Pain has a lot going for him. He has won in big fields (including at this meeting last year on similar ground over 7 furlongs), and from trap 11 is not too far from the supposedly favoured high stalls. Dane O'Neill is a good man to have up top, so this one should be tough to beat. At 8/1 on betfair, he's tempting.

But I'm going to take a punt (literally) on something at bigger odds. The nag that catches my eye is drawn hard against the rail in 18, so if the advantage is high, he has the best of it. Smile For Us likes to blaze a trail, so should be able to optimize his berth, and is relatively unexposed on turf, having done most of his running on the beach.

In only two runs on good to firm over six furlongs, Smile For Us has won (by five lengths!) and finished a close up 4th of 15 (beaten 1 3/4 lengths, only headed inside the final furlong). He is on the same handicap mark today as he was when he won so convincingly and, at 17/1 on betfair currently (over 3/1 for the place as well), he looks as good an option as any.

Trying to find one to beat today is quite tricky, for no better reason than I don't like to lay horses at greater than 5/2. (The potential payout proffers disproportionate palpitations - try saying that when you've had a couple of scoops!).

So, the one I want to field against runs tonight at Southwell in the 'lucky last'.
The horse in question is Newtonian, currently trading around 5/2 on the exchange.

With a win strike rate of two from seventeen, both wins coming over the slightly longer 1m4f trip here. He seems to relish a decent gallop, something which is far from guaranteed in this small field.

At eight years old, he's hardly a progressive type and, in what could be a muddling affair, I reckon he'll be well tapped for toe as they turn in.

Incidentally, when looking for horses who could beat Newtonian, I was interested in Mahmjra (around 9/2, two wins, two thirds from four starts over course and distance), and Musical Giant (21/1 and drifting, first start on AW, having cost 300,000 Guineas!!! He is by Giant's Causeway, who is a son of the mightiest of all dirt sites, Storm Cat. Could be a massive improver for the change of surface. Or could run like an expensive dog...)

So there it is, today's choices. These are not based on any system you might see elsewhere on the pages of Nag3, aside from my own reading of the races.

Monday Musing: If You Bet In Running, One Word.. Don't!

Welcome back to work, dear reader. For it is Monday again. To mark this most inauspicious and sobering of days, I thought I'd introduce a new 'occasional' post entitled, the Monday Musing.

This will normally be about something to avoid in the wonderful worlds of racing, football and betting, but I reserve the right to wander off topic from time to time, for no better reason than to vent my spleen about something which may be bugging me at the moment when digit touches keyboard.

To start things off on the right note, I will offer up a racing related Monday Musing.

It can be summed up as, "If you bet in-running on horse racing, you are almost certain to lose".

Let me explain...

I have a good friend (and gym partner) who for some time now has been trading on betfair. But his trading style differs from the average arbritrage player (for those who don't know, arbitrage is about backing a horse at a bigger price then laying it at shorter odds to guarantee a profit if it wins, and no down side if it doesn't).

Sure my nameless pal engages in arb's for bread and butter. But his jam comes from somewhere else.

Did you know that there is anything from 1.5 seconds and five seconds time lag between the live racing and 'live' racing pictures on the tv? (This is much more pronounced on the satellite channels, so if you typically watch only BBC / C4 racing, then you are less likely to be susceptible).

The delay between reality and the virtual reality of the TV pictures is enough for big stacks of cash to be won or lost.

Let me give you an example: the favourite at Uttoxeter is clear approaching the last, and there is £3000 to be layed at 1.07 on betfair. The favourite makes his first blunder all the way round the track, and comes down.

My friend, who works with a colleague at the track, lays the full £3000 with no liability. The horse is on the floor and cannot win. He knew about the stricken jolly a good three seconds before the unwitting 'money buyer' with a big burning hole in his pocket, who was lounging at home on his (soon to be repossessed) couch.

Another example is photo finishes. When the result is called on course, the savvy traders can back the horse that wins or lay the runner up, certain that they can't be beaten.

There are two exceptions to this case however. First, judges sometimes mistakenly call the wrong horse in the photo (especially if their name is Jane 'Inept' Stickles). Secondly, and more importantly, Betfair now send a man to the track to suspend betting as soon as he hears, "And here is the result of the photograph".

The lesson here is clear and stark: unless you're working in partnership with someone at the track, you are very likely to be donating your money to very shrewd traders if you bet in running.

You have been warned...

A footnote on the Derby. Great to see Frankie finally win, blah blah blah. Actually I don't much care about big name jocks winning big races. I'd have been happier if Frannie Norton or Royston ('The Boyston') Ffffffffrench had won.

Nevertheless, I like Frankie and you have to go a long way to find a jockey riding better for the last couple of seasons.

Rergarding the horse, Authorized, well I questioned his ability to win the race, based on the merit of his trial which proved nothing. As it turned out, we've rarely seen a more - forgive me - authoritative display. I'm not at all certain about the quality of the nags in behind, but the time was fast (4.5 seconds, or 22 lengths (!) quicker than the class 2 handicap that followed over the same trip).

Authorized looks well clear of his peers and may give the older generation something to think about in the big all age middle distance contests later in the season.

Which leads me to a quick final moan (for today at least): why is it that, by the 2nd day of June, barely two months into the turf flat season, we have already had four of the five Classics, with only the much maligned and lampooned (unfairly, in my opinion) St Leger to come?

Surely the Guineas races should be run at Royal Ascot, and the Derby and Oaks at somewhere like Glorious Goodwood or York. That would properly reflect a three year old animal maturing into his races, and give punters a fighting chance of finding the winner based on form (though of course Authorized was the form pick in the Derby).

I know this breaks from tradition etc, and even more so, I know it will NEVER happen. But am I the only one who thinks that there's a degree of preposterosity (made up word) about the main Classics being done and dusted before many of the best horses who will run this season are even out doing light canters?

Discuss...!

Pip pip!
Matt

Epsom Derby Preview: I'm Not Sure I'm Authorized...

After the emotion of HRH Cecil (I know it should be HRA, but for one day only I'm elevating him to royal status) in the Oaks yesterday, its time for the more earthly colts' contest.

The card is highly competitive, as you'd expect, and it kicks off with a ten furlong handicap, contested by fourteen runners.

An interesting point from the first day is that of the five races run over ten furlongs or less, the winners were drawn: 6, 4, 1, 2, 1

So I'll be looking for low drawn horses on a track that traditionally favours this anyway.

In the 2.00, most of the key protagonists in the market are poorly drawn, which leaves us with just the Hannon pair, Duke of Tuscany and Fever, who bookend the weights.

The Duke, who is topweight and a habitual front runner, will have to be exceptionally tough to lug the weight from pole position, but may just do that. He's progressive and only has 3/4 of a length to find with Zaham from their running last time out.

At the foot of the weights, Fever is also progressive, and is on the hat-trick tomorrow, having won at Nottingham and Windsor over this trip, albeit in significantly lower grade. It wouldn't come as a surprise if he proved equal to the upgrade.

The second race is the Woodcote, a six furlong dash for two year olds. Again, the draw is key. Mister Hardy is unbeaten in two starts to date, is well drawn and - as a son of Kyllachy - will have no problems with conditions underfoot. He'll take some beating, but there are plenty of unexposed types here, and Bespoke Boy may just improve past him. A winner on his debut (the field strung out like something that's been exceptionally well strung out... erm..), he has plenty of scope and is a sporting suggestion in an open contest.

Incidentally, there are four sons of Acclamation doing battle in the Woodcote, which may constitute some sort fo record.

A disappointing field of five for the Diomed Stakes (numerically at least), and Frankie will be odds on to double up on Godolphin's Blue Ksar. But he's no value to me. The horse looks to have been well placed to win three on the bounce, and has never won a Group race before. The prolific Welsh Emperor, on the other hand, has two Listed races, a Group Three and a Group Two to his name and, though arguably a little long in the tooth at eight years, he looks a much more appealing proposition.

If Ordnance Row takes his chance in the race after finishing third from an impossible draw today, he might follow the selection home.

At 3.30, we will be asked to find the winner of a nineteen runner sprint handicap, known as the Vodafone Dash. This is the fastest five furlongs in the country, and I think I may have heard somewhere, the fastest in the world.

Many of the usual suspects line up, and - to be honest - I don't have the faintest clue which one will win. High numbers can be favoured here, so I'll attempt to use that to inform my (uninformed) choice...

Green Manalishi has the most weight and the highest draw, the former implying he's the best horse here.Just behind him in the weights is Bond City, a course and distance winner on good to soft for tomorrow's pilot, Frankie Dettori. He's drawn better than ok in 13, and we know he goes on the track and the ground. He's in decent form, if a slightly disappointing run at York last time can be forgiven.

I'll side with these against the field, but you pays your money and takes your choice here.

Before I give you my thoughts on the Derby, a quick word about the 'new and improved' Nag3 site. I've now got it pretty much up and running, and am interesting in your thoughts. I aim to make the site one of the best free horseracing resources on the net in due course, and your feedback is vital in that. Otherwise, you'll just get what I think you want..!

Have a look at www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk and please use the contact option to pass me your thoughts.

You'll find free systems (all researched, not just gut feel or old wives' tales), articles, a search facility so you can look for a particular subject in my blog archives, and of course some premium systems, which are performing well at the moment. I managed to lay Lady Sandicliffe (at odds on) and a couple of others at short prices today, and get them all beaten, using the Racing Secrets [Exposed] formula. The other system on those pages, TrainerFlatStats has had its last five qualifiers finish first or second, including a nice winner today at 4/1 (only runner).

You can find more info on all of the above by sniffing around the site. Enjoy!

Now back to the Derby...

Aidan O'Brien is going scattergun with no fewer than eight entrants. All are regally bred, but I think all are running more in hope than expectation of beating the likely odds on favourite, Authorized. Although the form shown to date by Peter Chapple-Hyam's colt appears to be the best, I reckon that the Irish raiders may just get their wish.

There are doubts in my mind about the merit of the form of his four length defeat of Raincoat. The only horse with good form in behind was Adagio, and he shaped like a blatant non-stayer, so I'm not convinced that we learnt anything more than he's still alive that day. Indeed, Passage of Time showed in the Oaks that the favourites here have very different challenges to face than in their prep races.

Contrarily, a number of the Irish raiders have been battle hardened in top races.

One of these is Eagle Mountain, who finished fifth in the 2000 Guineas. There is a doubt about his stamina, as there is about many of this field, but if he stays he'll be hard to keep out of the frame.

One who is almost certain to stay is the son of Kingmambo, Archipenko. He won the major Irish trial, the Derrinstown Stud Trial Stakes, a race won previously by High Chapparal, Galileo and Sinndar. I'm not suggesting that Archipenko is as good as those illustrious previous winners, but he's clearly good and maybe very good. He looks the best each way option, and is strongly fancied to reach the frame.

Of the English trial winners, Admiralofthefleet, Soldier of Fortune, and Aqaleen beat little between them and I'd be surprised and a little disappointed if any of this trio was good enough to lift the Blue Riband.

One at a price who is very unexposed and bred to stay is Mahler. Another of the O'Brien Octet, he looks a touch of each way tickle value at 40/1.

Another race over the same trip follows, this time a handicap and there is one at the bottom of the weights who looks an absolute standout. Leslingtaylor was progressive last season on the flat and, since then, has added a big handicap hurdle to his name (the Swinton). He won't want for fitness, comes from a savvy yard, and I reckon has a great chance of winning this en route to (slightly) better things.

Cape Secret may give him most to worry about.

If you're not p155ed or potless by this point, there is another impenetrable sprint handicap to finish with. David Nicholls has won the race four out of the last five years, and five of the last ten, and he runs a quartet this time.

The best drawn of his is Indian Trail, but he's done all his winning on good ground or faster. He also has three duck eggs next to his name this season. Nicholls' other three are all drawn in the car park and it will be a shock if one can win.

I'm an occasional fan of going on the Beaver Patrol (can I say that?! Its my blog, I can say what I like!), and last year's winner has struck lucky with the same trap five that he won from then. Coincidentally, he also wears the orange jacket of all good trap five hounds, and I expect him to make a bold bid to double up. The last five winners of the race were drawn 7, 2, 1, 3, 5, and the Beaver should not be inconvenienced by the ground (won mostly on good to firm, but also on good to soft).

For my final shocking pun in this installment, I take the Beaver to snatch victory...

Good luck to all.
Matt

Friday Fun With The Zimmers...

Friday fun time again, and I'm celebrating after Our 'Enry did the business in the Oaks today to record... wait for it... his TWENTY-FOURTH Classic winner. The man is absolute class, and was typically gracious in victory, handing credit to everyone except himself.

I might start a peerage for Sir Henry campaign - what do you think...?

Anyway, a bit of Friday fun for you, once again from the archives of youtube.com. You may have seen this, as its received an awful lot of press coverage. They have a combined age of over 3,000! I think this fantastic and I hope you like it too...



Derby preview later...

Matt

Epsom Oaks Preview: Arise Sir Henry?

Hello again, dear reader, and welcome to Epsom Friday. At the end of a short working week, what could possibly be better than taking Friday off and sloping down to the Downs for some filly watching? (I know, I know, having the whole week off could be better, but for the wicked - as you're already aware - there is no rest!).

The good news is that the fillies will come fick and fast (apologies for blatant alliteration there) today as, not only is the Oaks the pinnacle of Classic-age lady races, but there is also a mile Group 3 event restricted to the fairer sex to start the card.

As if all that was not girlie action enough, for those prefer their females in biped form, it's also Ladies' Day today at the Surrey track. (Expect waaaaay too much focus on the girls, and not nearly enough on the top draw equine action if you're watching on TV today).

Enough of the opening bluster, and onto the races:

I have to say that I have some reservations about the ground, which may render a number of these selections obsolete. Although gauging ground conditions is rarely a science, the forecast rain has yet to arrive at Epsom, and the track is one of the better draining courses in the country. So, I think its going to be important to review the times of the first two contests before being confident on the actual going.

The official going is currently soft, but I suspect it will not be that yielding underfoot. Having been at Sandown last night, where the going was reported as good to soft, but the race times were quick, despite the horses traversing the track in the home straight and therefore travelling extra distance (apparently in search of better ground).

So... if the time of the opening two races is quicker than around 12.8 seconds a furlong (that's 1min 48.8 secs for both, as they are both over a mile and half a furlong), then its good ground or better. Markedly slower (i.e. 1:50.5 or slower) and it is genuinely soft. In between, its about good.

Its an inexact science, but it will help to gauge the ground. (Also check the previous winning form of the placed horses in the first two for an extra pointer).

The opener at 1.40 is tricky, with ten fillies and mares going to post. Regular readers will know that I find women to be unpredictable at the best of times, and especially when they have four legs and eat hay (as so many of mine seem to!). I very rarely take a short price on a filly, and will not be doing so in this race. So, while Nannina has the best form, she has yet to race this season (and indeed for eight months), and she may not act on soft turf, if that's what it turns out to be.

Echelon is interesting and her trainer knows more than most about improving older horses, and is the most likely winner. However, I will take an each way chance on a horse who ran well in the 1000 Guineas and gets the weight for age allowances in this relatively early season race.

The horse in question is Puggy and, for small stakes, she may reward each way ticklers.

Next up is a handicap over the same trip, and it wouldn't surprise me if this lower class race is run in a faster time than the opener. I am a big fan of following sires who have an influence for producing soft ground horses and Montjeu is the most obvious of these. So his able, though not brilliant, son Montpellier must be of interest in this race.

Although his overall race record is patchy, he has won on good to soft and won last time out. His trainer reckons he's a bit of a dodge and, personally, I quite admire quirky animals (for obvious reasons, i.e. I am one!) He clearly has the talent, but whether he deigns to use it is another kettle of kippers entirely.

So I'll take another in the race, just in case. I also love Inchinor's in soft ground races, and almost put up Red River Rebel against the lay Medieval Maiden the other day (won at 25/1!).

Tucker's been off for a while but will act on the ground, is fairly handicapped, and comes from the very shrewd stable of the 'choirboy' Walter Swinburn.

In the 2.45, although the human version is pretty slow, I reckon the equine John Terry has a great chance. Will act on whatever ground conditions are prevalent (his only win coming on soft), and he is pretty unexposed compared to others here. Has an able trainer, and with the benefit of a debut run this season under his belt, he'll not want for fitness.

At the bottom of the card is a very interesting horse called Red Lancer. He's finished fifth and sixth in this race in the past two years and has been plummeting down the handicap. Formerly very smart (he won the Chester Vase three years ago), he is clearly in regression now, but his handler - one Dandy Nicholls - loves to win here and this old boy may work your larynx if you invest in him.

The Coronation Cup is a belter: the best race on the card by far. Seven horses who between them have won eight Group 3's, six Group 2's, and five Group 1's. A classy renewal indeed! My selection here is ground dependant, I'm afraid. I am a huge fan of Sixties Icon, and think he will win if the going is good or quicker. However, if its genuinely dead, I reckon the O'Brien pair, Septimus and Scorpion will find the mark.

Although Sixties Icon has won a St Leger (over a mile and three quarters), I just feel that Scorpion's stamina will be tough to crack. He's also a former St Leger winner, and on heavy ground to boot.

Septimus is a classy animal and will give both a run for their oats. The one I don't like today, which probably means he's going to win, is last year's Derby winner, Sir Percy. I'm not sure that was the best of Derbys and he's consistently fallen a little short in top races since. I'm happy to pass him over today.

Next up is the Oaks, and I dearly dearly dearly hope the main man completes his renaissance by bagging the winner, and maybe the second as well, in today's 'Totty Classic'.

I am of course referring to the incomparable 'Sir' Henry Cecil (I need to be allowed to remove the apostrophes soon, Your Maj!!!).

The man is a genius - no other word for it. Different gravy is another appropriate nomenclature for HRAC.

Quite simply, Passage of Time has by far the best form. If she's fit enough (she's had a persistent throat abscess all season), she'll win. Not by far though, as she seems to doss in front, giving the impression that she's all out. Make no mistake, this young lady is the real deal. I hope and expect her to win. She is a rare case when I'd invest in a short price priced filly, if I didn't already have so much emotional investment in the success of Sir Henry.

The race for places is wide open, though one I'd oppose is Dalvina. The form of the race she won at Newmarket last time has taken more blows than Hugh Grant did from Divine Brown (allegedly).

I'd love Light Shift to make it a 1-2 for the indomitable Mr Cecil, and that may well happen. She's progressive and has done nothing wrong in two starts to date this term, though of course this is a different examination entirely.

As we've mentioned in these pages before, John Oxx rarely comes over from Ireland for the craic (its better where he lives generally speaking). So his Four Sins, a daughter of dual-Derby and Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe winner Sinndar for the same connections, will be expected to run with merit. Oxx does have reservations about the ground and its even possible that if its genuinely sodden out there, he'll withdraw her. If she takes her chance however, she'll make them go.

There are plenty of other unexposed types, but they all need to improve by a stone and more to beat Passage Of Time.

A couple of ridiculous rags who may run better than their odds suggest are Darrfonah and Sues Surprise. Both are bred to stay (where many are doubtful stayers), and both will act on any ground. Don't be surprised if one of these two finishes in the frame.

Its downhill after that, with nothing much to catch this punter's eye (or wallet). In a very trappy contest at 4.50 I'll take the two outsiders each way against the field. That's Heroes and Whazzis. But I take neither with any great conviction.

Finally, when the beer / champagne should have kicked in and made every man and woman (but hopefully not the children) bulletproof when striking a wager, my three who can't be beat (ahem) are Little White Lie, Dickie Le Davoir and Cheap Street.

The Best of British (and Irish) To You!

Matt