Festivals Taking The P? Plus Free Saturday Selections

Having spent a few days in my home town of Bournemouth this week (have laptop will travel), I have not really taken too much interest in the racing, I must concede.

However, I must confess to Festival Fatigue, a (seemingly) new ailment brought on by too many racing 'festivals' in a short space of time.

After the wonders of Cheltenham and, to a lesser degree, Aintree, we are now being treated to Punchestown and - wait for it - Perth!

Now, lest I offend any Northern readers, let me please clarify a couple of points. Firstly, Perth always looks like a beautiful track and - indeed - a wonderful place to spend a few days. I am also led to believe it is the UK's northernmost racetrack. For all of this, a Festival course it is not, I'm afraid. At least not to this humble (and opinionated) scribe.

Its been an up and down week for TTS followers, with many horses running below par, especially from the Nigel Twiston-Shout (or Davies for the purists) stable. Most of his runners this week have finished with a P to their name, merely extending the P theme of the week.

Over at Punchestown, their Festival really is a war of attrition between bookies, barmen and bettors. Its a five day marathon with a couple short of four thousand races (or so it seems), and for me this 'Festival' seems very much a case of 'after the Lord Mayor's show'.

There are not too many champions on show, with the possible exception of the magnificent and geriatric Spot Thedifference.

So for me its been a "keep the powder dry" week, ahead of some more interesting and - hopefully - profit packed punting (more p's: I'm hitting my stride now with this alliteration mallarkey!) in the weeks ahead on the level.

Other news: Teofilo update. The horse that this (idiotic?) scribe said cannot win the Guineas after his injury scare is due to do his first full work since the setback tomorrow, and all eyes will be on Jim Bolger's gallop for news on the movement and speed of the Second Coming of Shadowfax (I used Pegasus the other day, and I'm now out of mythically fast horses to allude to, so all suggestions welcomed. Does a centaur count? Didn't think so...)

Betfair currently has the horse at a little over 9/4, so for those of you who availed yourself of 11/1 or thereabouts, you have a fine opportunity to trade out and have an interest at around 8.5/1 with no risk. That's about the only way I'd play Teofilo, despite all the recent support.

Bottom line is he will have still missed a very important week or ten days of work, just a week prior to the big day, and I doubt that any horse is capable of winning a Classic at 90% fitness. Well, we shall certainly see. I'll be listening out for the reports of tomorrow's gallop with much interest.

Football: If you're a fan of footy, and like to bet on it, I'll be sharing my thoughts in this column from next season (may seem like a long way off but its only three months away), prior to starting a football service. I only had one ante-post bet this season. Hartlepool for League Two at 14/1 each way. I'm already certain to be paid out on the place, and if the MonkeyHangers win tomorrow and Walsall fail to win, its the gravy train for me... More on the footy in due course.

Finally, as promised, here are tomorrow's TTS and TFS qualifiers, free to you my dear readers:

Sandown
2.15 Sasso
Treasury Counsel
2.40 Hoo La Baloo

Haydock
6.15 Majestic Cheer
8.15 Sowdrey

You can still get Trainer Flat Stats until Monday at better than half price (£27) so, if you're interested, go to www.trainerflatstats.com/introorderpage.html

Until next time, have a great weekend, and may your next bet be a winner!

Matt

I Need Your Help!

A short Monday night note to you, dear reader, and a plea for assistance, if I may.

As you may have noticed, I have little 'Rate My Blog' icon on this page, where you can award me a mark out of ten for this little periodic tipping and tittle tattle column.

If you enjoy reading my thoughts, comments and suggestions (or even if you don't!), would you be so kind as to award me a mark out of ten? I appreciate you're all busy people, and will be very grateful to all who are able to do this for me. It will literally take two seconds to do.

Incidentally, if you have any comments regarding issues you'd like to see discussed, or thoughts you may have, there is also the opportunity to use the 'comments' button at the end of this post.

I'm always interested to hear your thoughts - it feels rather lonely writing this spot with no real knowledge (aside from the odd very kind comment on email) of whether its hitting the mark or not. So your help is again very much appreciated.

Enough begging on my part, already!

On to the great Teofilo debate, and Jim Bolger, the (alleged) wonderhorse's trainer has today issued his promised update bulletin. He was extremely upbeat about the chances of Teofilo both making the lineup,and indeed winning, the 2000 Guineas. Good news for those who have backed him, egg on face potential for yours truly.

He is now trading at around 3/1 on betfair and a best priced 11/4 with bookies (Stan James). This cynical young wag still considers this shocking value, as Bolger did sound a word of caution that he couldn't be certain that the ailment afflicting his aspirant Pegasus would recur, nor even that it was fully healed. The horse will canter Wednesday, do half work Thursday and work for real on the weekend, all being well.

He remains not for me. Of more appeal is his filly, Finsceal Beo, who is favourite for the 1000 Guineas. She was impressive in her trial, so we know she's trained on, and will go to the race in form and fit, which is more than can be said for her (considerably) more greatly hyped stablemate.

Other news: Rapid City finished a staying on 12th (beaten by 11, beat 11) of 23 in the Spring Cup on Saturday, and was only beaten five lengths. He will definitely have chances over a stiffer (and more end to end gallop) mile, or a mile and a quarter. The plan for him is Royal Ascot in due course, and I am wetting my pants in excitement at that prospect. (Before you ask, I'm not literally wetting my pants - that would be silly when I've been able to use the potty for a couple of years now. No, rather, I'm metaphorically very thrilled about the chance of being dressed up like The Penguin out of Batman and bowing and scraping in front of Her Maj...)

Finally, a quick mention for TrainerFlatStats, which stepped up a gear today with a lovely 10/1 winner at Pontefract, courtesy of Tim Easterby's Flighty Fellow. There haven't been many runners to date (just 15), but that will change soon enough, with the start of evening racing coinciding with the slowdown of jump racing.

Its not too late to get the discount version of the guide (£27 instead of £57), but it will be after next Monday.

Check www.trainerflatstats.com for details of the guide (and associated bonus reports), but make sure you use this link to buy or you'll end up three cockles (that's £30 to you squire) down on the deal...

http://www.trainerflatstats.com/introorderpage.html

And finally finally, though I am in no way a Manchester United fan, a huge congratulation goes to Cristiano Ronaldo, who has overcome the boo boys (including me) with a season of absolutely breathtaking displays to be awarded both the PFA Player of the Year and Young Player of the Year trophies - the first person to do this for twenty odd years apparently. Surely the Football Writers' prize will follow, as will World Player of the Year in December, a knighthood in the New Years' Honours list, and investiture into sainthood by the end of next season.

In all seriousness, as a Bournemouth fan, I have no partisan affiliation in the Premier League, so enjoy each game on its merits. With the exception of their most recent outing against Boro (cost me money!), I have been thoroughly entertained every single time I've watched United this season.

Love 'em or hate 'em, you've got to take your hat off to 'em. (With apologies to fans of all other Premiership clubs, esp. Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool!)

Pip pip!
Matt

The Easiest Race In The World To Find The Winner?...

Well, I dearly hope some of you estimable readers took my advice on the Grand National and backed Silver Birch (amongst others).

I say it every year, and people really seem to have a problem understanding it. So let me repeat it again, with apologies for shouting:

THE GRAND NATIONAL IS A STATS RACE!!!!!!!!!

The only time in the last ten years when the stats have not found the winner was when Hedgehunter won. He was not a stats horse because he carried 11-01, with the cutoff being 11-00. On the basis of a pound and fitting all the other trends, I backed him anyway. I've actually backed the last SIX winners of the Grand National, and I'm terrible at picking handicap winners!

What I'm trying to tell you is don't be fobbed off by the people who say the race is a lottery. Its not. Period.

The stats for the Grand National are (mostly) so glaringly obvious that its easy to see why they're so effective.

I won't run through all of them here (check my post on 23rd February, where I gave you the winner, for all the details), but I'll just major on a few of them which cuts the field down to about ten very quickly (and that's the case pretty much every year).

1. Grand National is 4 and a half miles. Find a horse who has won over 3m+, preferably 3m2f. Obvious no?
2. Grand National has 40 runners. Find a horse that has won in a field of at least 12, preferably 15. Obvious?
3. Grand National has horribly big fences. Find an experienced jumper (more than two seasons over fences), preferably who has completed (and ideally won) over the Grand National fences. Obvious huh?
4. Grand National is the most testing marathon race in the calendar. Find a horse in the handicap proper (and therefore talented enough to win), but not lugging more than 11-00 (and therefore weighted down).

How many horses yesterday do you think matched these stats?

Answer: three had won over the fences and fitted the other stats.

And they all completed the race yesterday. The winner Silver Birch was joined by Liberthine (5th) and Clan Royal (11th).

From my stats perspective, the latter two failed to qualify as they are French bred, and no such horse has EVER won the race. Many have tried.

In my blog, I made the following comments on the dates listed:

"20th March

Make a note of Gordon Elliot's Silver Birch, who finished a game
second in this race. His next scheduled engagement is in the Grand
National, and he fits all of my stats (which have found the winner
for the last ten years!), so is one on an increasingly shortlist for
the Aintree feature.

23rd February

Silver Birch - my big ante-post wager last year, before things went
inexplicably wrong. Has been nursed back to form by lesser known Irish trainer
and finished 2nd in a cross country race and 4th in a hurdle recently. Will go
to Cheltenham (Cross Country race) then Aintree."

Hindsight is a wonderful thing of course. But what I'm telling you is that you don't need hindsight to back next year's winner. If you simply use the stats, which are underpinned by clear logic, you have a very good chance of getting paid out, granted normal luck in running.

Incidentally, and sorry to gloat, but I had average odds of 9o/1 on the winner, having backed it in February when I wrote about it here. And I had a good drink last night. :o)

Best Regards
Matt

Alternative PinStickers Guide To The Grand National...

At this time of year, we get utterly swamped with 'Grand National Previews', and this will be another one. To break from the usual monotony though, I'm proposing a slightly different tack.

Rather than pin sticking, I will tell you why each of the horses can't win. This is actually a particularly savvy tactic, as it virtually guarantees me being 97.5% right. (i.e. there will only be one winner out of forty starters!)

So, here we go, from the top to the bottom. Find your fancy and see why it can't win tomorrow!!

*** = I'm on (and at this price)...

HEDGEHUNTER: Too much weight. Will likely complete, but won't win. Place possibilities.
EUROTREK: Too much weight. Fragile horse who could go wrong (I hope he won't). Likes the fences and unlikely to fall.
L'AMI: Too much weight. French bred has never won the race. Ever. Many have tried.
MONKERHOSTIN: Too much weight. Probably won't stay. Not quite as good as he was this season.
THISTHATANDTOTHER: Too much weight. Slower than a particularly slow boat. On the downgrade.
BILLYVODDAN: Too much weight. Inexperienced. A likely casualty.
NUMBERSIXVALVERDE: Too much weight. No repeat winner since Red Rum.
IDLE TALK: Can't jump, won't jump. Oh, and too much weight.
ROYAL AUCLAIR: Too much weight. Probably on the downgrade. Will probably get round. Place possibilities.
***CLOUDY BAYS (317/1): Dodgy jumper (fell in a hurdle race last time!), but good form. Outsider with a chance IF he stands up. Big if.
KNOWHERE: Novice. Shouldn't be running in the race in my opinion.
KELAMI: French bred never won. Doubtful stayer. Classy enough.
***POINT BARROW (16.5/1): No reason why he won't win, except that he isn't good enough on the day. My idea of the winner...
CELTIC SON: French breds don't win the National. One start this season and he failed to complete. Tomorrow will be two starts and two failed to complete.
SIMON: On the upgrade, but a second season chaser and probably still too inexperienced.
BALLYCASSIDY: Dodgy jumper, on the downgrade.
CLAN ROYAL: French bred, so won't win. Had his chances in previous years. Even McCoy doesn't want to ride him this time. (A mistake in my opinion, as he still looks the pick of the McManus runners)
GALLANT APPROACH: Ground against him and he's probably not good enough.
LIVINGSTONEBRAMBLE: Non-stayer. Not good enough.
***DUN DOIRE (15/1): Ground too quick. Every chance, aside from that.
KANDJAR D'ALLIER: Frenchie can't win.
SLIM PICKINGS: Second season chasers don't win the National
ZABENZ: Ditto
BEWLEYS BERRY: Ditto
***LONGSHANKS (33/1): Ground quick enough, but every chance. Has jumped round and I reckon he might well win it. Cracking value.
BOTHAR NA: Just not good enough.
***GRAPHIC APPROACH (279/1): Probably not good enough. Makes a lot of mistakes so he may well not get round. No idea why I backed him!
HOMER WELLS: Second season chasers don't win the National, and he's probably not good enough anyway.
LIBERTHINE: Not a race for 'Les Grenouilles' but he has jumped round the fences before.
***SILVER BIRCH (90/1): Not won for two and a half years and the ground on the quick side, but he comes here with a chance!
PHILSON RUN: Not good enough probably, and the turf will be fast enough.
***PUNTAL (not on yet, currently trading at 150 on betfair): Sixth last year after over a year off, and has a squeak. Can't find a reason not to back him, so I will be backing him tomorrow!
THE OUTLIER: Ground too fast. Will be scared sh**less by the number of rivals in this race. (Never won with more than ten in the field).
TIKRAM: Non-stayer will be pulled up.
McKELVEY: Not good enough. Might get round.
***NAUNTON BROOK (120/1): Bang out of form and probably not good enough. But will appreciate the faster ground, and could surprise a few people. (Still I don't expect to collect on this ticket!)
JACK HIGH: Was a 9/1 shot last year, and not without a chance this time. Might be too far back to mount a winning run (most winners are up near the pace throughout), and unseated last year.
SONEVAFUSHI: Should have run in the Hunter Chase. Not good enough for this.
JOE'S EDGE: Landed a touch for readers of this column at Cheltenham (50/1!). Scottish National winner who likes to hear his hooves rattle. In good form, and a sound jumper. The one I'm not on that I'm most worried about. You'll hear me cursing from your front room if this one wins!
LE DUC: Dodgy jumper, non-stayer. Say no more.

So there it is. I've told you why they can't win and I'll be more right than wrong. However, I'm pretty confident that one of the starred horses will collect. I've had a good deal more winners than not over the past ten years and, bizarrely (foolishly?!), I am reasonably confident about my chances tomorrow.

Longshanks is probably the best value bet in the race, in my opinion.

Good luck, whichever horse(s) you've selected, and lets hope the beasts and all the pilots get back for a glass of their favoured at the end of the day.

Matt

Aintree: Day One Review / Day Two Preview

A little short on time today, so I'll keep this brief (I can hear your collective sigh of relief from here!)...

Yesterday - Mighty Man won the first as expected, but I didn't back it. I lost money on State Of Play, as Exotic Dancer proved himself a very very good horse in the Betfair Bowl.

Katchit won as he pleased, and I did back him but only for small money. By the way, did I mention I love this horse?

Just one point of order here: what the Dickens are the BBC doing employing the abject buffoon who is Jim McGrath to do the commentary?! Not only did he call the foot perfect Katchit as making a bad blunder (then followed it up by saying he jumped the next much better) when it was blatantly apparent to anyone with even one partially functioning eyeball that it was Punjabi who made the 'horlicks'; he also couldn't track a faller down for over a fence and, when he did, it was clearly a guess as he said Locksmith fell, then called him as the leader in the final quarter mile.

Finally, and this must surely have not been lost on the powers that be, in their first rehearsal for the Grand National, they were using four commentators (as they will be on Saturday). McGrath came a distant fourth - tailed off - to this listener's ear anyway, when pitched alongside the estimable race reading talents of Tony O'Hehir, my mate Ian 'Barty' Bartlett and another chap whose name escapes me, but who is a fine up and comer who often calls at Wolverhampton.

McGrath is an ignoramus. I never want to hear of a horse 'careering away' again in my life! (but I suspect I will have heard it twice more before the second race is over...)

Onwards, dear reader... I got the Hunter Chase wrong, and am still waiting to see where mine finish. Scots Grey looked beaten and rallied very well: a real treat if you backed it because you must have thought you'd lost your money, only to see him come back with admirable resolve.

The money for Bambi De L'Orme in the antipenultimate (that's third last to you and me) was well placed, and he won nicely. None of my cash was on him.

Had a decent bet on Wins Now in the sixth race and reckon he would have won but for a terrible mistake at the last hurdle. McCoy is not really a man for the Festival meetings it seems. At least not when I back him...
TTS had the winner in Tidal Bay, and of course my bet on the Bay was left second at Cheltenham. Bugger.

In the last TTS had three non-qualifiers, due to the prices. Pity, because Two Miles West won at 25/1 and Gods Token was second at 33/1. The exacta paid a piffling £3170.20! (Place lay of the day Laouen beaten into 5th, so lay landed - just!)

To today, and hopefully none of you are triskaidekaphobic (afraid of the number 13 of course!)... No time for (further) verbiage, so my placepot / win selections are as follows:

Race 1: Ungaro and Dom D'Orgeval
Race 2: Massini's Maguire (a very tough horse to pass!)
Race 3: Well Chief (different class, barring jumping errors... no money down this time though!)
Race 4: Ground Ball, Umbrella Man, Risk Accessor, Hakim, and Le Volfoni
Race 5: Osana (tipped here as an Aintree horse before Cheltenham)
Race 6: Limerick Boy, Green Belt Flyer and Fundamentalist (place lay of the day: Copsale Lad.)
Race 7: One Gulp

Good luck if you're playing today...

Matt

Preview of 2007 Flat Turf Season: Matt’s Alternative Ten To Follow…

Well it seems to be the time of year when every man and his dog is sharing the ten horses they’re most looking forward to seeing this season. And, in the spirit of this, I thought I’d share mine with you.

However, if you’re expecting the usual ten Classic contenders, you’re in for a surprise…

Now this list has a chance to go one of two ways: I suspect that there will be no middle ground with this. These horses all have something to prove, and pretty much none of them will make it to the top of their sector.

But, from a betting perspective, does that matter? The reason for picking these ten is that I think they may win once or twice at nice prices. Sure, they will lose more often than they win, but this is my ‘Value Ten To Follow’.

So, with that in mind, here we go:

1. Pieter Brueghel (Tr: D Nicholls; 8yo)

At eight years old, this gelding couldn’t exactly be classified as unexposed, and I make no apology for that. He was rated as high as 100 for Paul Cole as a 3yo, and has consistently given his running year in, year out since.

The handicapper is just showing signs of relenting now, and I can see Pieter Brueghel returning to the winners’ enclosure over a sprint trip (5 or 6 furlongs) this season.

This horse loves fast ground and has won round Chester’s very tight ‘bullring’ circuit twice off marks in the 90’s. Both those wins were when trained by Paul Cole, but Dandy Nicholls loves to win races at the Roodeye as well, so pay special attention should this horse turn up there this term.

2. Crossing The Line (Tr: Sir Mark Prescott; 3yo)

Having had the obligatory three runs in maiden company, and recording the form figures for a major international poker company in so doing (888), this gelding will be seen to much better effect over a mile to a mile and a quarter.

He is owned by shrewd connections (Prescott trains and Wally Sturt owns), and they have had many others run up sequences with similar profiles.

Allotted a mark of just 64 for his next turf run, and having cost, 95,000 guineas as a yearling, there must be expectations of more to come.

Look for Crossing The Line over a mile plus.

3. Tonnante (Tr: Sir Mark Prescott; 3yo)

Again we take the “Prescott-trained thrice raced in maidens” route with the filly, Tonnante.

She is out of Hernando, a marvellous middle distance horse who finished runner-up in the Arc amongst his many big race efforts. The dam’s side has stamina in abundance too, having – apparently – been a high class winner in Brazil.

In three maiden efforts to date, Tonnante has mid-pack twice over seven furlongs, and then fourth of five over a mile.

If I’m reading her right, she is crying out for at least a mile and a half, possibly further, and could be one of Prescott’s to run up a sequence.

4. Spirit Of The Mist (Tr: T J Pitt; 3yo)

I like this trainer, and his handling of Les Arcs last season was nothing short of expert, especially for one so new to the training ranks.

Pitt has assembled a useful looking squad for 2007, and I expect him to regularly be among the winners: definitely a trainer to keep on the right side of.

This colt ran green on debut, before winning nicely in a decent enough race second time out as a two year old last season. He then ran in the Goffs Million race in Ireland and finished last of 28 (albeit sent off only a 16/1 shot).

That run is easily forgiven and forgotten and, off a mark of 80, I expect this horse to show improvement as a three year old. The one concern I have is that the trainer may decide to campaign him at a higher level than handicaps, in which case he may be found out.

But, nonetheless, I think this one will win races in his grade and he readily makes the team.

5. Rapid City (Tr: Julia Feilden; 4yo)

Ok, so I probably do need to apologise for including this horse in my list, as I own a tenth of him! However, I think he takes his place on merit.

Having been bought cheaply from Criquette Head’s French stable, he has run six times over the winter, winning three and finishing second twice.

His run last Saturday was all wrong. Over a trip short of his best, and with pace setting tactics employed, I am convinced that we did not see the best of Rapid.

His trainer, Julia Feilden, has high hopes for him, and the plan ultimately is the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot. He’ll need to win a race between now and then to have a chance of making the cut.

But he is a horse who definitely wants to hear his hooves rattle, and an end to end mile (which is like a mile and a quarter in a run of the mill race) will suit him down to the ground.

Rapid has not finished winning just yet!!

6. Monte Alto (Tr: Luca Cumani; 3yo)

Luca Cumani is one of the great modern trainers in my opinion. He has had his (all too human) failings, and been involved in a few scandals (he’s Italian, what do you expect?!), but ultimately this man rarely fails to deliver.

He has some very good looking prospects for 2007, and I nominate Monte Alto as one to be on the right side of.

In two runs to date, this horse has finished third both times in decent maiden company.

He’s bred for a mile, and was staying on over seven furlongs in his two runs to date. Given normal physical improvement from two to three, he may actually stay a little further.

He’s likely to have one more run in a maiden and, while I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him in that, it is in decent three year old handicaps that I think ‘Filthy’ Luca will be looking to get the money down.

7. Furmigadeligiusta (Tr: Luca Cumani; 3yo)

Three runs in maidens to date for this one, which is a ploy that Signor Cumani uses almost as effectively as Sir Mark Prescott.

Having been the ‘lantern rouge’ in his first two starts (i.e. last man home!), he made eye-catching progress on his third maiden start. I have a strong suspicion that his progress was actually a bit too eye-catching for the trainer, as the word may now be out.

This horse will very likely win races this year, and the good news is… you don’t have to be able to pronounce his name to bet him!!

8. Novellara (Tr: Henry Cecil; 4yo)

I may be indulging myself by including horses from the stables of my favourite trainers here, but isn’t that what Ten To Follow is about?!

Novellara is a slightly better class animal than my other selections, and I nominate her because I reckon she might just get Mr Cecil (where’s his knighthood for heaven’s sake?) back into the Group 1 winners.

I’m not privy to trainer plans, and this may be pie in the sky, but I reckon this mare could have chances if she runs in the Coronation Cup at Epsom.

Although she’s currently only Listed / Group 3 class, I reckon that given soft under hoof conditions, she will be competitive in the best mile and a half races, especially among her sex.

Cecil is a master of training fillies and mares, and – if this one hasn’t already been sent to the paddocks (her breeding is phenomenal and she already has black type) – I think she will win some nice races this season.

9. Bertoliver (Tr: Dean Ivory; 3yo)

Another man who might bang in a few decent priced winners this season, Dean Ivory looks to have a useful tool in Bertoliver.

This horse ran seven times as a juvenile, which might lead you to believe that he’s exposed. However, I suspect that there is improvement in him for a year of physical growth.

Last seen when runner up (the remainder well beaten off) in an average nursery, he had run extremely creditably the time before, when ‘winning’ the middle race in a hot Newmarket maiden (the field split into three groups across the track).

A well bred sprinting type, I reckon he’ll get competitive in some decent sprint handicaps this season. Pay special attention if/ when he runs at Windsor.

10. Worldly (Tr: Sylvester Kirk; 3yo)

This guy is going to be big! One of the real rising stars in the flat training ranks, make a note of anything this man runs anywhere. He is not afraid to take on the big boys (and win), as his haul of over half a million quid in prize money last season will testify.

The horse I nominate here is a slightly risky one (aren’t they all?!), as he burst a blood vessel on his final run last season. It can often be the case that horses who ‘burst’ become susceptible to it, so it may be that he becomes a regular bleeder.

However, I’m happy to include him with the caveat that, should he ‘burst’ again, he will be struck off my top ten.

So why am I including him? Good question! His previous two runs had resulted in a runner-up placing on debut, and a facile win (at odds of 1/4) second time up. In that final race where he bled, he was sent off the 7/2 joint favourite as one of the top weights in a decent looking Newmarket nursery.

If his bleeding problem has subsided, he looks set to take a hand in some good three year old handicaps this season at around a mile and a quarter.

So there it is – my ten plodders to follow. Probably no equine superstars in there (except perhaps Novellara), but quite possibly some good payoff’s to be had for those who keep the faith.

I’ll continue to report on the progress of this bunch and, if you have any comments, or your own dark horses to follow for the season, why not add them as a comment to this article.

I’ve no monopoly on content here, my racing friends!

Best Regards
Matt

www.trainerflatstats.com

Two Year Olds With Experience... Crucial!

At this time of year, there are a lot of races where the betting market is formed on opinions and reputations, rather than collateral form. I am primarily referring to two year old races here, as opposed to seasonal debutantes who may have improved / regressed since the previous season.

One element is more important than any other when betting 2yo's: the benefit of previous experience. So many horses are having their first sight of a racetrack, their first feel of the whip, their first listen to the noise, and so on...

A simple analysis of this has identified a lucrative niche for betting 2yo's on their second start early in the season (April to June).

As ever, I strip out the fillies and concentrate on colts and geldings (male horses). The other criteria are as follows:

- Didn't win on their first start
- Second favourite in the betting

Just by applying these simple criteria, you'd have won 96 out of 315 bets since 1998, and returned a tidy 94.86 points profit. That's around two grand for £20 stakes on a strike rate of over 30%.

YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% VSP%

1998 7 28 25.00 2.75 9.82 17.05
1999 8 29 27.59 8.83 30.45 22.08
2000 9 24 37.50 15.83 65.96 65.04
2001 10 33 30.30 9.83 29.79 34.84
2002 14 38 36.84 20.75 54.61 59.54
2003 9 38 23.68 -1.25 -3.29 4.66
2004 16 49 32.65 17.33 35.37 48.03
2005 11 39 28.21 7.58 19.44 28.84
2006 12 37 32.43 13.21 35.70 33.21
_____________________________ _______________________________

96 315 30.48 94.86 30.11 34.94


A quick review of yesterday's action, and - as mentioned - I felt the prolific sand scorers were classic place lay opportunities in their respective races at Newcastle. Dichoh was sent off 10/3 favourite in the Spring Mile and finished 17th, beating just two home. Gentleman's Deal fared slightly better. Sent off 7/2 favourite, he finished 15th of 20. Place layers never had a moment's concern!

As a general rule, we see year in and year out, good horses from the sand made favourite for races they generally cannot win on the turf. Look out for these and oppose at will!

Quick word about Rapid City yesterday, who finished fourth. I was very disappointed for two reasons: firstly I felt that there was no way he should have been making the running if there was any pace in the race (he was taken on for the lead, so there was clearly pace!) Secondly, I felt - though I've yet to see a replay - that James Doyle dropped his hands and got caught for third place as well. The joys of being a minority shareholder in a racehorse!

Until next time...

Matt