The Cambridgeshire: Do We Have A Winner?
Morning, dear reader, and another Saturday brings yet another insoluble handicap. Just the kind of race I like to throw some stats at and see what they bring.
For a race with so many runners, there are some fairly strong trends that might help us.
Firstly, looking at the race this year, we see that the 3yo's are favoured in the betting, with no less than the first six in the market in their Classic season. Two other 3yo's also line up.
Only two of the last ten runnings have been won by this age group, and on that basis alone, I'm happy to strike these off my list. So that makes a 35 horse race much more manageable as only a 27 runner race (ahem!).
The best age group is 4yo's, who have won half of the last ten runnings, with 6yo's pitching in with the remaining three victories. So I'm going to narrow my search down to 4-6yo's. That leaves me with 21. It's still not getting much easier!
OK, after age, lets look at the draw. Only one horse has won this race in the last ten years from a single figure draw, and that was the 100/1 'skinner' Spanish Don. More on the Don shortly. Indeed, only three have won from lower than halfway in the draw, so I'm going to - perhaps carelessly - strike out all bar traps 17 and above.
We now have just ten horses in with a shout.
The market gives us a few clues with only three winners starting at bigger than 14/1 and, very interestingly, two of those three were trained by David Elsworth. As well as the aforementioned Don, he also saddled Lear Spear to collect at 20/1.
So let's look at 14/1 or shorter, plus David Elsworth's horses. We now have a shortlist of Snoqualmie Boy and Greek Well.
In fact, none of the other high drawn 4-6yo's are any shorter than 28/1 this morning, so I'll take these two each way against the field.
There's a good chance that the 3yo's will turn the older boys over this year, but - lest we forget - there have been plenty of short priced 3yo's turned over in previous seasons (with the exception of last year's winner of course).
Good luck with whatever you fancy. I have a suspicion you'll need it!
Matt
For a race with so many runners, there are some fairly strong trends that might help us.
Firstly, looking at the race this year, we see that the 3yo's are favoured in the betting, with no less than the first six in the market in their Classic season. Two other 3yo's also line up.
Only two of the last ten runnings have been won by this age group, and on that basis alone, I'm happy to strike these off my list. So that makes a 35 horse race much more manageable as only a 27 runner race (ahem!).
The best age group is 4yo's, who have won half of the last ten runnings, with 6yo's pitching in with the remaining three victories. So I'm going to narrow my search down to 4-6yo's. That leaves me with 21. It's still not getting much easier!
OK, after age, lets look at the draw. Only one horse has won this race in the last ten years from a single figure draw, and that was the 100/1 'skinner' Spanish Don. More on the Don shortly. Indeed, only three have won from lower than halfway in the draw, so I'm going to - perhaps carelessly - strike out all bar traps 17 and above.
We now have just ten horses in with a shout.
The market gives us a few clues with only three winners starting at bigger than 14/1 and, very interestingly, two of those three were trained by David Elsworth. As well as the aforementioned Don, he also saddled Lear Spear to collect at 20/1.
So let's look at 14/1 or shorter, plus David Elsworth's horses. We now have a shortlist of Snoqualmie Boy and Greek Well.
In fact, none of the other high drawn 4-6yo's are any shorter than 28/1 this morning, so I'll take these two each way against the field.
There's a good chance that the 3yo's will turn the older boys over this year, but - lest we forget - there have been plenty of short priced 3yo's turned over in previous seasons (with the exception of last year's winner of course).
Good luck with whatever you fancy. I have a suspicion you'll need it!
Matt
posted by Matt at
10:30
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