Nag3: Horse Racing Blog, Racing Systems & Free Horseracing Tips: This Time Last Year...

Monday, dear reader, another Monday. And the racing I'm afraid to say is as uninspiring as the prospect of five days at the office...

Regular readers will know that I have a phobia to betting on Mondays, as the racing seems to be pants and personally I just can't find winners. Given that every race, no matter how bad, has a winner, it's the latter point that's a lot more pertinent than the former.

The weekend saw the start of the TrainerTrackStats season, with racing at Newton Abbot and Market Rasen.

We went very close at Newton Abbot with our sole representative, Forest Green, who - to my biased eye at least - should have won the big chase at 5/1. He was badly baulked a couple of times on the final circuit and then was given a less than polished ride by his amateur rider to get caught on the run-in, thus finishing second. (Again, regular readers know my views on amateur riders...!)

At Market Rasen yesterday, there were no such hard luck stories. Those of you who looked in the appendix to TrainerTrackStats will have noted that JJ Quinn is worthy of a second glance at Rasen (amongst others), and he duly obliged with his only runner at 7/1.

That was a side show however, and the main man at the track, Peter Bowen, was disappointing. Its interesting to note that the jockey he employed yesterday (Paddy Merrigan) is 1 from 22 for Bowen, whereas usual first choice T J O'Brien has a much healthier 16 from 83 record this year. Hindsight etc...

Now then, I wonder if you'll indulge me for a moment, while I take a trip down Memory Lane to this time last year. After a similarly frustrating start to the season, on 6th September, Montevideo strolled home at 7/1 at Uttoxeter to register TTS' first winner of the season. There was then a break in the jump racing action until 17th September, when Marc Of Brilliance romped home at 8/1.

But nothing could compare with the truly amazing day we had on 21st September. The results were as follows:

21/09/2006 Fontwell Irish Whispers 1st 12 £240
21/09/2006 Fontwell Sonoma 1st 10 £200
21/09/2006 Fontwell Eljay's Boy 1st 4 £80
21/09/2006 Fontwell Saby 3rd 12 -£20
21/09/2006 Perth Glingerbank 1st 0.67 £13
21/09/2006 Perth Knowhere 1st 2 £40
21/09/2006 Perth Billyandi 1st 1.38 £28
21/09/2006 Perth Scribano Eile 1st 1.25 £25
21/09/2006 Perth Thai Vango 1st 1.38 £28

Indeed, Saby, the only beaten horse, finished 3rd in the race that Eljay's Boy won!

As phenomenal and freakish as that day was, the rest of September was pretty special too, with the following results to the end of the month:

24/09/2006 Huntingdon Astyanax 1st 3.5 £70
24/09/2006 Huntingdon Toss The Caber 3rd 5 -£20
24/09/2006 Huntingdon Terramarique 1st 1.88 £38
24/09/2006 Huntingdon Rakalackey 3rd 3.5 -£20
24/09/2006 Huntingdon Ameeq 1st 0.54 £11
26/09/2006 Sedgefield Three Mirrors 2nd 11 -£20
28/09/2006 Hereford L'Eau Du Nil 3rd 1.75 -£20
29/09/2006 Hexham Shiwawa 1st 0.5 £10
29/09/2006 Hexham Linagram 2nd 5.5 -£20
30/09/2006 Fontwell Fairl' Express 1st 8.5 £170

Now of course that kind of form is unsustainable, but 13 winners from 19 runners and the remaining six in the frame is testament to the incredible advantage that these stats can offer.

And with prices like 12/1, 10/1 and 17/2 amongst the shorter priced winners, that's pretty special.

Indeed, and I'm just entertaining a whimsy here, if you'd managed to do a £5 accumulator (or 2, to cover the race with two runners) on the 21st September (I wish!), you'd have come away with no less than £268,017.75. Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy!

Ok, history lesson over. I'm sure you can see why I'm sharing this with you, so it just remains for me to point you in the direction of the current version for season 2007/8.

A quick reminder of the bottom line, based on 5 years of stats, but focusing on last year's results for the nominated trainers.

Financially, backing all TTS horses at SP last season would have returned a profit - to £20 stakes - of £11,150. Now I obviously can't promise that the trainers will perform so well this season, but if they only do a quarter as well, that's still more than £2,750 profit at SP.

If using an exchange such as Betfair, where odds are on average 16% higher, you would have returned over £12,000, after paying commission.

TTS horses won on average 35.51% of the time last season, and were placed in the first three a staggering 62.89% of the time. That means over one in three runners was a winner, and almost two out of every three runners was placed.

Backing these trainers in the nominated races over the course of the last five seasons, for just £20 stakes at SP, would have returned a very satisfying £52,123.80.

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