Don't Buy Racing Investments Formula.... Yet!
Hello, dear reader, and welcome to another occasional posting from yours truly.
If you, like me, have been bombarded with emails regarding the latest system from the farm of Stephen Brookes, then I've got some news for you...
I've had a read of the system, and it basically uses changes in the betfair market to inform some system rules.
The concept of overround's will be familiar to some of you but not to others, so I'll briefly explain here:
- A book is the total market on a horse race, with a price quoted for each runner
- A book making up 100% would be considered round
- If the book is less than 100% it is underround
- If the book is more than 100% it is overround
- To calculate the round of a book, you simply:
- Work out how much you'd need to stake on each horse to return £100 (including stake)
- Add up all the amounts
- If the number is greater than 100, as it invariably is, this is the overround.
e.g. 3 horse race (for simplicity sake), betting as follows:
A 6/4
B 2/1
C 2/1
£40 bet on A will return £100 including the stake; £33.33 bet on B will return £100; £33.33 bet on C will return £100.
40 + 33.33 + 33.33 = 106.66%
OK, with me so far? Good. Usually, the markets on betfair trade at around 101-102%, meaning that you are getting very fair odds. (If the market is less than 100%, you could - in theory at least - back all horses and guarantee a profit).
RIF looks at the difference in the individual horse rounds between the off time (or a minute before) and half an hour prior to a race. For instance, if Alpha Omega was trading on betfair at 3.0 or 2/1 30 minutes before the off, and was then trading at 6/4 or 2.5 a minute before the off, the round would have gone from 33.33 (for 2/1, see above example) to 40 (for 6/4, again see example above).
The difference here of 6.67 would equate to a system rule in RIF.
Although this sounds complicated, it actually isn't in practice, especially with the spreadsheet software provided. You just enter the numbers half an hour before, and shortly before, the off respectively, and all the maths is done for you. You then look at the differentials (calculated for you) and identify the appropriate system qualifier.
Incidentally, the system may tell you to bet to win or bet to place, or to lay the win or place.
So, that's what it does... but does it work?!
Erm... I don't know, as I've been doing this blooming charity management gig all week, and will be tomorrow. Allied to this is the fact that I'm playing footy on Saturday (I play for Southgate County on Saturdays in the London Old Boys League. We're rubbish!!!)
But on Sunday, I will trial the system on half a dozen races and appraise you of how the system performs.
If you can't wait that long, check out the usual bluster here: http://tinyurl.com/2rv9dc
Personally, I'd wait: let me try it out before you spend any cash...
Onto the racing, and of course the St Leger is this Saturday. Before that though, Doncaster hosts the Flying Childers Stakes for 2yo's tomorrow. The race has extra resonance this year, as it will be the first time since his cruel extradition that Spirit of Sharjah has run.
In case you're not familiar with the story, Sharjah was trained by the trainer of my (bit of) horse, Julia Feilden, until the owner - a man who'd never won a race prior to saddling up with Julia - decided to move the horse to Peter Chapple-Hyam.
Julia, after all, had only chosen the horse and picked it up for a song, landed a very nice touch (16/1 into 10/1) on debut, then won a listed race, with the horse.
After that, Sharjah finished third to the mighty Winker Watson at Royal Ascot, before disappointing a touch at the Newmarket July meeting. Last time out, he ran pretty well at Glorious Goodwood (being the only horse except Kingsgate Native - subsequent winner of a Group 1 against older horses! - drawn in double figures to finish in the top ten in that race, and from a much worse draw than the Native).
So, I'm afraid I have to hope for a disappointing run from Sharjah. I wish the horse no ill of course, but if he never wins another race, this scribe will feel some justice has been done.
TrainerTrackStats continues tomorrow with a couple of runners at Bangor, for which I am hopeful, though the racing does look pretty competitive there.
You can get a free trial or sign up at www.TrainerTrackStats.com, although the bonuses have now expired.
Finally, a little premature for some of you (as it's Thursday evening as I write this), here is some Friday Fun to keep you entertained at the end of the week...
This week, another spot of self-indulgence, with my favourite sitcom of all time, Fall and Rise of Reginal Perrin (I know, I'm showing my age...!). These are classic moments, and if you enjoy them half as much as me, you'll be laughing heartily before long.
Good weekend, and I'll let you know about Racing Investment Formula on Sunday.
Matt
If you, like me, have been bombarded with emails regarding the latest system from the farm of Stephen Brookes, then I've got some news for you...
I've had a read of the system, and it basically uses changes in the betfair market to inform some system rules.
The concept of overround's will be familiar to some of you but not to others, so I'll briefly explain here:
- A book is the total market on a horse race, with a price quoted for each runner
- A book making up 100% would be considered round
- If the book is less than 100% it is underround
- If the book is more than 100% it is overround
- To calculate the round of a book, you simply:
- Work out how much you'd need to stake on each horse to return £100 (including stake)
- Add up all the amounts
- If the number is greater than 100, as it invariably is, this is the overround.
e.g. 3 horse race (for simplicity sake), betting as follows:
A 6/4
B 2/1
C 2/1
£40 bet on A will return £100 including the stake; £33.33 bet on B will return £100; £33.33 bet on C will return £100.
40 + 33.33 + 33.33 = 106.66%
OK, with me so far? Good. Usually, the markets on betfair trade at around 101-102%, meaning that you are getting very fair odds. (If the market is less than 100%, you could - in theory at least - back all horses and guarantee a profit).
RIF looks at the difference in the individual horse rounds between the off time (or a minute before) and half an hour prior to a race. For instance, if Alpha Omega was trading on betfair at 3.0 or 2/1 30 minutes before the off, and was then trading at 6/4 or 2.5 a minute before the off, the round would have gone from 33.33 (for 2/1, see above example) to 40 (for 6/4, again see example above).
The difference here of 6.67 would equate to a system rule in RIF.
Although this sounds complicated, it actually isn't in practice, especially with the spreadsheet software provided. You just enter the numbers half an hour before, and shortly before, the off respectively, and all the maths is done for you. You then look at the differentials (calculated for you) and identify the appropriate system qualifier.
Incidentally, the system may tell you to bet to win or bet to place, or to lay the win or place.
So, that's what it does... but does it work?!
Erm... I don't know, as I've been doing this blooming charity management gig all week, and will be tomorrow. Allied to this is the fact that I'm playing footy on Saturday (I play for Southgate County on Saturdays in the London Old Boys League. We're rubbish!!!)
But on Sunday, I will trial the system on half a dozen races and appraise you of how the system performs.
If you can't wait that long, check out the usual bluster here: http://tinyurl.com/2rv9dc
Personally, I'd wait: let me try it out before you spend any cash...
Onto the racing, and of course the St Leger is this Saturday. Before that though, Doncaster hosts the Flying Childers Stakes for 2yo's tomorrow. The race has extra resonance this year, as it will be the first time since his cruel extradition that Spirit of Sharjah has run.
In case you're not familiar with the story, Sharjah was trained by the trainer of my (bit of) horse, Julia Feilden, until the owner - a man who'd never won a race prior to saddling up with Julia - decided to move the horse to Peter Chapple-Hyam.
Julia, after all, had only chosen the horse and picked it up for a song, landed a very nice touch (16/1 into 10/1) on debut, then won a listed race, with the horse.
After that, Sharjah finished third to the mighty Winker Watson at Royal Ascot, before disappointing a touch at the Newmarket July meeting. Last time out, he ran pretty well at Glorious Goodwood (being the only horse except Kingsgate Native - subsequent winner of a Group 1 against older horses! - drawn in double figures to finish in the top ten in that race, and from a much worse draw than the Native).
So, I'm afraid I have to hope for a disappointing run from Sharjah. I wish the horse no ill of course, but if he never wins another race, this scribe will feel some justice has been done.
TrainerTrackStats continues tomorrow with a couple of runners at Bangor, for which I am hopeful, though the racing does look pretty competitive there.
You can get a free trial or sign up at www.TrainerTrackStats.com, although the bonuses have now expired.
Finally, a little premature for some of you (as it's Thursday evening as I write this), here is some Friday Fun to keep you entertained at the end of the week...
This week, another spot of self-indulgence, with my favourite sitcom of all time, Fall and Rise of Reginal Perrin (I know, I'm showing my age...!). These are classic moments, and if you enjoy them half as much as me, you'll be laughing heartily before long.
Good weekend, and I'll let you know about Racing Investment Formula on Sunday.
Matt
posted by Matt at
19:21
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