Truly Glorious Goodwood
Hello again, dear reader, and as my hangover dissipates, let me tell you a little about the clearing haze from yesterday.
A truly glorious day greeted me and my five drinking and punting pals (actually two were on the water, but that dilutes the story somewhat!)
Meeting at Victoria Station at 9.15am seemed somewhat of a premature rendez-vous time. However, as it turned out, it was a fine plan. By taking an early train, we arrived early (shortly before midday) at the course, and were able to take our pick of the fantastic facilities in the Gordon Enclosure.
We pitched up for the afternoon around a nice little table adjacent to the parade ring and, more significantly given that there wasn't a paddock judge among the six of us, adjacent to the bar.
It was a heavy drinking day, but a light punting day, mostly. My 576 line placepot (yes, you read that right!) suffered the ultimate ignominy of first race early bath, when my two selections finished fourth and fifth (Perfectperformance and High Top).
In my embarrassed annoyance I passed up a bet in the next race, where my mate Tim had been telling us all "seven out of the last ten winners were drawn in the highest box, and another won from there but was dispualified".
Of course, I'm a high draw evangelist myself at Goodwood, and - obviously - Wake Up Maggie featured in my doomed 'pot.
Well, she won easily, and those boys collected at odds of 14/1 down to 11's. Bugger.
The next race and my bet of the day. Arguably a somewhat curious race to strike your bet of the day: a seemingly fiercely competitive 19 runner handicap. And yet, I'd made it a three horse race between River Tiber, King Of Argos and - my nap - Third Set.
These horses came 1st, 3rd and 4th, and my two score at 3's paid for the beers on a light punting afternoon.
More annoyance was to follow when I decided that I wanted 8's on Strike The Deal, and 'only' 15/2 was available. My feigned smugness at my own tremendous discipline quickly turned to chagrin as the Striker romped away with it, and all my mates laughed at me because they'd backed it. Ba5tards.
By the way, the dead placepot had had three winners to follow the failure in the first, and a fourth winner was to come next, again without my money on it.
My three in the nursery were Golden Penny, Meeriss and Coasting. I backed Golden Penny, who I believe may still be running. The other two finished 1st and 3rd.
In the insoluble penultimate handicap, I took four big priced horses against the field, and Oranmore Castle almost gave me a 110/1 payout for a fiver on the Tote. Ran a cracking race before fading. I had Indian Trail twice (one for the non-runner going on the favourite) in the placepot, meaning I'd have had it for 80p.
To be honest, I couldn't believe it when it only paid £99, as I thought it was a pretty tough 'pot to get. And I was thrilled that my 'nearly won' dividend was so miserly.
Four days running now I've had five out of six.
The final insult on the punting front came in the last, when again I took four against the field (including 3rd, 4th - 20/1 Jarvis' other runner! - and 6th), and failed to include Marozi, the horse whom I'd put up an almightily ballsy 'back' cry when it ran a stinker last time. See blog post on 23rd July, when I said,
"Over at Windsor tonight, where low numbers have the call in soft ground sprints, I really fancy the unexposed Marozi. I think Michael Jarvis is an excellent trainer, and this horse's soft ground second last season looks good enough in the context of this race.
Given that many of the horses he beat that day are now rated higher than his mark of 80, and that he also has a Group 1 entry, he looks a generous price at around 7/4 at betfair. I was expecting this horse to be trading at around even money against pretty exposed opposition.
Maybe I'll have the proverbial albumen on physiognomy (or egg on face, if you will) later, but I reckon this is a standout wager. The slight cautionary temperance is that getting stuck in on a Monday is generally not a good idea, in my experience. Nevertheless, I'll fight my early week reticence on this occasion."
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
I could and probably should have had five winners yesterday. I had one, which at least was correctly staked, and got p155ed. Not a terrible outcome by any means!
The rest of the day passed in a haze - I took the 1911 train back to London, on a ridiculously circuitous route via Hove and Haywards Heath (are Southern the worst train company in the world?! Why don't they put on Festival Raceday Special trains?)
Got into London around 9, and headed straight into Shoreditch for more drinking. Rolled in rolling drunk at 3 this morning, and I'm feeling remarkably good on it. ( I may still be drunk!)
Yesterday's lays fared ok with a 10/11 winner and two losers, meaning we've now had a much more respectable eight from the last nine turned over.
Today, there is only one, which I'm a little twitchy about: Cosmic Art in the 3.35 at Newmarket.
Paul's each way tips also fared disappointingly yesterday, with all the short ones he tried to oppose winning:
Mr Wiseguy 3rd at 4/1 (-0.2 points)
Silver Mitzva 4th at 15/2 (-1 point)
Papillio 3rd at 7/1 (+0.16 points)
Ridge Dance 6th at 14/1 (-0.4 points)
Total -1.44 on the day.
The Stewards' Cup is the big handicap of the day, and one of the big handicaps of the season. It's quite a strong trends race, and the following are usually important pointers:
Seven of the last ten winners have come from stall 19 or higher.
Balthazaar's Gift, Knot In Wood, Viking Spirit.
Conscious that a low drawn horse could blow us out, I'll nevertheless side with this three off the tee. (Its no coincidence they're three of the first four in the betting - only once in the last ten years has a horse won at odds longer than 14/1).
The Nassau Stakes is a belting race with probably the best three middle distance turf fillies in the world lining up.
I hope Light Shift wins, I think Peeping Fawn will win, and it would not surprise me in the slightest of Mandisha wins. A race to savour rather than to bet in.
Best of luck to you today.
Matt
A truly glorious day greeted me and my five drinking and punting pals (actually two were on the water, but that dilutes the story somewhat!)
Meeting at Victoria Station at 9.15am seemed somewhat of a premature rendez-vous time. However, as it turned out, it was a fine plan. By taking an early train, we arrived early (shortly before midday) at the course, and were able to take our pick of the fantastic facilities in the Gordon Enclosure.
We pitched up for the afternoon around a nice little table adjacent to the parade ring and, more significantly given that there wasn't a paddock judge among the six of us, adjacent to the bar.
It was a heavy drinking day, but a light punting day, mostly. My 576 line placepot (yes, you read that right!) suffered the ultimate ignominy of first race early bath, when my two selections finished fourth and fifth (Perfectperformance and High Top).
In my embarrassed annoyance I passed up a bet in the next race, where my mate Tim had been telling us all "seven out of the last ten winners were drawn in the highest box, and another won from there but was dispualified".
Of course, I'm a high draw evangelist myself at Goodwood, and - obviously - Wake Up Maggie featured in my doomed 'pot.
Well, she won easily, and those boys collected at odds of 14/1 down to 11's. Bugger.
The next race and my bet of the day. Arguably a somewhat curious race to strike your bet of the day: a seemingly fiercely competitive 19 runner handicap. And yet, I'd made it a three horse race between River Tiber, King Of Argos and - my nap - Third Set.
These horses came 1st, 3rd and 4th, and my two score at 3's paid for the beers on a light punting afternoon.
More annoyance was to follow when I decided that I wanted 8's on Strike The Deal, and 'only' 15/2 was available. My feigned smugness at my own tremendous discipline quickly turned to chagrin as the Striker romped away with it, and all my mates laughed at me because they'd backed it. Ba5tards.
By the way, the dead placepot had had three winners to follow the failure in the first, and a fourth winner was to come next, again without my money on it.
My three in the nursery were Golden Penny, Meeriss and Coasting. I backed Golden Penny, who I believe may still be running. The other two finished 1st and 3rd.
In the insoluble penultimate handicap, I took four big priced horses against the field, and Oranmore Castle almost gave me a 110/1 payout for a fiver on the Tote. Ran a cracking race before fading. I had Indian Trail twice (one for the non-runner going on the favourite) in the placepot, meaning I'd have had it for 80p.
To be honest, I couldn't believe it when it only paid £99, as I thought it was a pretty tough 'pot to get. And I was thrilled that my 'nearly won' dividend was so miserly.
Four days running now I've had five out of six.
The final insult on the punting front came in the last, when again I took four against the field (including 3rd, 4th - 20/1 Jarvis' other runner! - and 6th), and failed to include Marozi, the horse whom I'd put up an almightily ballsy 'back' cry when it ran a stinker last time. See blog post on 23rd July, when I said,
"Over at Windsor tonight, where low numbers have the call in soft ground sprints, I really fancy the unexposed Marozi. I think Michael Jarvis is an excellent trainer, and this horse's soft ground second last season looks good enough in the context of this race.
Given that many of the horses he beat that day are now rated higher than his mark of 80, and that he also has a Group 1 entry, he looks a generous price at around 7/4 at betfair. I was expecting this horse to be trading at around even money against pretty exposed opposition.
Maybe I'll have the proverbial albumen on physiognomy (or egg on face, if you will) later, but I reckon this is a standout wager. The slight cautionary temperance is that getting stuck in on a Monday is generally not a good idea, in my experience. Nevertheless, I'll fight my early week reticence on this occasion."
Aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrgggggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh!
I could and probably should have had five winners yesterday. I had one, which at least was correctly staked, and got p155ed. Not a terrible outcome by any means!
The rest of the day passed in a haze - I took the 1911 train back to London, on a ridiculously circuitous route via Hove and Haywards Heath (are Southern the worst train company in the world?! Why don't they put on Festival Raceday Special trains?)
Got into London around 9, and headed straight into Shoreditch for more drinking. Rolled in rolling drunk at 3 this morning, and I'm feeling remarkably good on it. ( I may still be drunk!)
Yesterday's lays fared ok with a 10/11 winner and two losers, meaning we've now had a much more respectable eight from the last nine turned over.
Today, there is only one, which I'm a little twitchy about: Cosmic Art in the 3.35 at Newmarket.
Paul's each way tips also fared disappointingly yesterday, with all the short ones he tried to oppose winning:
Mr Wiseguy 3rd at 4/1 (-0.2 points)
Silver Mitzva 4th at 15/2 (-1 point)
Papillio 3rd at 7/1 (+0.16 points)
Ridge Dance 6th at 14/1 (-0.4 points)
Total -1.44 on the day.
The Stewards' Cup is the big handicap of the day, and one of the big handicaps of the season. It's quite a strong trends race, and the following are usually important pointers:
Seven of the last ten winners have come from stall 19 or higher.
Nine of the last ten winners also had an official handicap rating of at least 92
Eight carried at least 8-10
Eight finished in the first three last time out.
Alas, all carry 8-10 or more today, and all are rated more than 92, so that doesn't help!
Balthazaar's Gift, Knot In Wood, Viking Spirit.
Conscious that a low drawn horse could blow us out, I'll nevertheless side with this three off the tee. (Its no coincidence they're three of the first four in the betting - only once in the last ten years has a horse won at odds longer than 14/1).
The Nassau Stakes is a belting race with probably the best three middle distance turf fillies in the world lining up.
I hope Light Shift wins, I think Peeping Fawn will win, and it would not surprise me in the slightest of Mandisha wins. A race to savour rather than to bet in.
Best of luck to you today.
Matt
posted by Matt at
09:40
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