Top Scorer Preview, League One Preview and Paul's Winning Racing Tips
As promised, dear reader, here are my thoughts on a couple more of the major ante post football markets for this season. At the bottom of this post, you'll also find Winning Racing Tips' e/w selections for today.
Let's start with the Premier League Golden Boot market.
My tip for the top of the scoring charts is Tottenham's big summer signing from relegated Charlton, Darren Bent. This boy scored 13 goals last season playing in a woeful side that was relegated. He also scored 18 the year before in the same Charlton side (though it performed better as a team, it had nowhere near the class that Spurs currently boast).
With the service available to him at Spurs, I am expecting him to get closer to 20 goals, perhaps even beyond it.
Last season, Drogba won the race with 20, and he is injured for the start of the season, and away on African Nations Cup duty in January. He will likely miss eight to ten games (about a quarter of the total matches), so I think he is a terrible bet at a best priced 6/1.
So, if we take the favourite out of play, who are the contenders:
Wayne Rooney (14 goals last season, 12/1, expekt.com) is bound to be injured and suspended for some of the season, and isn't really the type of out and out striker who wins this prize. Man United will score a hatful this season, as they do pretty much every year, but they will also share them around.
Not for me Roonaldo.
Cristiano Ronaldo (17 goals, 16/1, expekt.com) is a joy to watch. Despite the vitriol aimed at him last season after the World Cup affair, he was far and away the best player in the league last year.
Seventeen goals from midfield is an awesome return, and I reckon he'll outscore Rooney again this year, while still coming up short in the overall totals race.
Benni McCarthy (18 goals, 21/1, expekt.com) is a player I admire too. He plays in a much under-rated team at Blackburn, and I'm very impressed that they've signed Roque Santa Cruz from Bayern Munchen for what could turn out to be a bargain price.
The problem for Benni this season is that, even with the majestic service he'll get from MGP (Morten Gamst Pedersen, if you will), he is likely to have to share the goals with Roque and others.
RVP (Robin van Persie, 11 goals, 14/1, Bet365, Stan James, Ladbrokes) looks in awesome shape in pre-season, and is an exceptional talent. For me, Arsenal are the most creative side in the League, and they just might have solved their striking problems with Da Silva. Expect RVP to weigh in with double digit strikes, but fall short of the places.
Eduardo Da Silva (25/1 Boyle, Paddy Power, Sporting Odds, Ladbrokes) could be a great signing for Arsenal. I reckon he's overpriced, as he is surely the only player the Gunners have who can sit on the shoulder of the last man, and put them away regularly. Whether Monsieur Wenger agrees with me remains to be seen. At the price, I'd be tempted to have a little each way. He may well be in the top four scorers, and could come out on top.
Forget Shevchenko (just 9/1 in a place, 18/1 with Coral) as he won't get too many games, even with Drogba injured or absent.
Forget Fernando Torres (16/1 generally), a great player, but one who spends too much time on his backside moaning at referees, and who will be rotated in a side that doesn't score too many goals.
I love Dimi Berbatov, who was the best newcomer last season by a distance. His nonchalance and casual demeanour masks an exceptional talent. However, he likes to sit just off the striker position, and I think will score less goals this season than last year's dirty dozen.
I expect Jol to make B&B (that's Berbi and Bent) his first choice partnership, and the latter's five goals in pre-season shows that the pairing is ripe.
Berbi clearly likes playing with Bent, as he offers much more mobility and all round game than Defoe (who is probably a more natural finisher), and he offers more directness than the infuriating Robbie Keane (who has a touch of class, but too often finds little off the bridle, in racing parlance).
At 25/1 with Expekt.com, I think he's the pick of the prices. I've backed him already and, if Jol starts the season with him (not insignificant 'if', as my Spurs mates tell me that Jol loves Keano), then I can see Bent being undroppable, and scoring a load of goals in an exciting team to watch. (They've got bags of pace and width, maybe still a question mark about the holding midfield position though).
A couple of important points about the odds quoted with expekt.com: although you may never have heard of them, they are a major player in Europe and are aggressively seeking signups in UK.
They bet win only on the top scorer market, which means there's no place payout. Personally, on the top scorer charts, I think this is no bad thing, as an injury, suspension or dubious management decision could see a player have a long spell on the sidelines. In that instance, you'd do double your money.
If you've not got an account, but fancy taking the best price on one of the above, the good news is that expekt will match your first wager up to £25. That means, place a £25 bet and you'll get £25 credited to your account.
Place a £10 bet and get £10 credited to your account.
You can sign up
HERE if you're tempted by those odds.
It's Bent for me, followed by Da Silva.
League One is often a touch section to find the winner in. Last season, 50/1 shots Scunthorpe cruised home, thanks to a great unit and the goals of Billy Sharp (now at Sheffield United).
This season, Nottingham Forest are clear market leaders. They were a little disappointing last season but have bolstered their already impressive squad with the key signing of Neil Lennon, and other notable purchases, Matt Lockwood and Aaron Davies.
Lennon is a no nonsense ball winner with a touch of class, especially at this level, and he could make the difference for them this year. Even at a best priced 4/1 (Sporting Odds), I reckon they must go close and would want them in my portfolio.
Beyond them, I wouldn't want Leeds even without the 15 point deduction. With it, they are no hopers to me, and they will have to get somewhere between 60 and 65 points just avoid relegation to League Two. How are the mighty fallen. (As a Bournemouth fan, you'll forgive me for scoffing at the decline of a once great club with once great fans. Apologies to any genuine Whites supporters reading this).
Swansea (11/1 Skybet) have been knocking on the door in recent seasons, but they've had too many chances already for me. Lee Trundle has Premier League trickery but a distinctly Sunday League work ethic. He's a joy to watch in highlight format though!
Doncaster, with former Cherries man Sean O'Driscoll at the helm, are top priced 11/1 (again with Sporting Odds), and have added ex-Cherries hitman, Jamie Hayter. Hayter once scored four away to Bury, and also scored the fastest ever hat-trick in Football League history against Wrexham (2mins and 20 seconds!).
He is a decent scorer but not a legendary predator by any means. In fact, he only scored ten for the Cherries last year, and was often deployed in a central midfield role.
Donny are a good workmanlike side with an honest and professional manager (though don't look at him for a soundbite, unless you're a big fan of footballing cliche's), but I doubt they're good enough to win this league.
Luton could be entertained at 16/1 (Skybet, Hills). Although relegated from the Championship last year, they have retained a lot of decent players, and they've brought in some impressive and proven names. Paul Peschisolido, Chris Perry, Darren Currie and Paul Furlong may all be closer to getting a bus pass than most players, but they've all been there, seen it and done it, and will bring bags of experience to a squad with some promising youth already on the books.
Further down the card, I like the look of Hartlepool and Bristol Rovers to 'double up' in the promotion stakes. It's been done by a number of teams recently, with Southend and Brighton winning the division after being promoted from League Two the previous year, and Hull and Rotherham both finishing 2nd after promotion. Four teams in the top two in the last six seasons.
So back Hartlepool (11/1 BlueSq, Coral) and Bristol Rovers (14/1 Bet365, Stan James) for promotion. Remember, if either side finishes in the top six and is not automatically promoted, you will have 11's or 14's about a team in the four horse race that is the playoffs. Given the track record of teams coming up, these are the best value bets in the section for me.
And my original (not!) selection to win League One is Nottingham Forest. Sorry.
Onto the horses, and the Winning Racing Tips selections today are opposing Naomh Gheileis with
3.10 Pontefract 0.6pt e/w Effingham (5/1 Sportingodds/StanJames)
3.10 Pontefract 0.4pt e/w Nickel Silver (8/1 Bet365/BetDirect)
Finally, further reminders in case you needed them (!) that you should be entering your Fantasy League team in at http://www.premierleague.com/
Use the signup button to the right of the Budweiser symbol. To join the Nag3 League, where there are prizes to be won (exact nature of these to be revealed over the coming days), enter the following code: 533724-97750
Also, you can still sign up for a 14 day trial of Laying System, by clicking here.
TTFN
Matt
Let's start with the Premier League Golden Boot market.
My tip for the top of the scoring charts is Tottenham's big summer signing from relegated Charlton, Darren Bent. This boy scored 13 goals last season playing in a woeful side that was relegated. He also scored 18 the year before in the same Charlton side (though it performed better as a team, it had nowhere near the class that Spurs currently boast).
With the service available to him at Spurs, I am expecting him to get closer to 20 goals, perhaps even beyond it.
Last season, Drogba won the race with 20, and he is injured for the start of the season, and away on African Nations Cup duty in January. He will likely miss eight to ten games (about a quarter of the total matches), so I think he is a terrible bet at a best priced 6/1.
So, if we take the favourite out of play, who are the contenders:
Wayne Rooney (14 goals last season, 12/1, expekt.com) is bound to be injured and suspended for some of the season, and isn't really the type of out and out striker who wins this prize. Man United will score a hatful this season, as they do pretty much every year, but they will also share them around.
Not for me Roonaldo.
Cristiano Ronaldo (17 goals, 16/1, expekt.com) is a joy to watch. Despite the vitriol aimed at him last season after the World Cup affair, he was far and away the best player in the league last year.
Seventeen goals from midfield is an awesome return, and I reckon he'll outscore Rooney again this year, while still coming up short in the overall totals race.
Benni McCarthy (18 goals, 21/1, expekt.com) is a player I admire too. He plays in a much under-rated team at Blackburn, and I'm very impressed that they've signed Roque Santa Cruz from Bayern Munchen for what could turn out to be a bargain price.
The problem for Benni this season is that, even with the majestic service he'll get from MGP (Morten Gamst Pedersen, if you will), he is likely to have to share the goals with Roque and others.
RVP (Robin van Persie, 11 goals, 14/1, Bet365, Stan James, Ladbrokes) looks in awesome shape in pre-season, and is an exceptional talent. For me, Arsenal are the most creative side in the League, and they just might have solved their striking problems with Da Silva. Expect RVP to weigh in with double digit strikes, but fall short of the places.
Eduardo Da Silva (25/1 Boyle, Paddy Power, Sporting Odds, Ladbrokes) could be a great signing for Arsenal. I reckon he's overpriced, as he is surely the only player the Gunners have who can sit on the shoulder of the last man, and put them away regularly. Whether Monsieur Wenger agrees with me remains to be seen. At the price, I'd be tempted to have a little each way. He may well be in the top four scorers, and could come out on top.
Forget Shevchenko (just 9/1 in a place, 18/1 with Coral) as he won't get too many games, even with Drogba injured or absent.
Forget Fernando Torres (16/1 generally), a great player, but one who spends too much time on his backside moaning at referees, and who will be rotated in a side that doesn't score too many goals.
I love Dimi Berbatov, who was the best newcomer last season by a distance. His nonchalance and casual demeanour masks an exceptional talent. However, he likes to sit just off the striker position, and I think will score less goals this season than last year's dirty dozen.
I expect Jol to make B&B (that's Berbi and Bent) his first choice partnership, and the latter's five goals in pre-season shows that the pairing is ripe.
Berbi clearly likes playing with Bent, as he offers much more mobility and all round game than Defoe (who is probably a more natural finisher), and he offers more directness than the infuriating Robbie Keane (who has a touch of class, but too often finds little off the bridle, in racing parlance).
At 25/1 with Expekt.com, I think he's the pick of the prices. I've backed him already and, if Jol starts the season with him (not insignificant 'if', as my Spurs mates tell me that Jol loves Keano), then I can see Bent being undroppable, and scoring a load of goals in an exciting team to watch. (They've got bags of pace and width, maybe still a question mark about the holding midfield position though).
A couple of important points about the odds quoted with expekt.com: although you may never have heard of them, they are a major player in Europe and are aggressively seeking signups in UK.
They bet win only on the top scorer market, which means there's no place payout. Personally, on the top scorer charts, I think this is no bad thing, as an injury, suspension or dubious management decision could see a player have a long spell on the sidelines. In that instance, you'd do double your money.
If you've not got an account, but fancy taking the best price on one of the above, the good news is that expekt will match your first wager up to £25. That means, place a £25 bet and you'll get £25 credited to your account.
Place a £10 bet and get £10 credited to your account.
You can sign up
It's Bent for me, followed by Da Silva.
League One is often a touch section to find the winner in. Last season, 50/1 shots Scunthorpe cruised home, thanks to a great unit and the goals of Billy Sharp (now at Sheffield United).
This season, Nottingham Forest are clear market leaders. They were a little disappointing last season but have bolstered their already impressive squad with the key signing of Neil Lennon, and other notable purchases, Matt Lockwood and Aaron Davies.
Lennon is a no nonsense ball winner with a touch of class, especially at this level, and he could make the difference for them this year. Even at a best priced 4/1 (Sporting Odds), I reckon they must go close and would want them in my portfolio.
Beyond them, I wouldn't want Leeds even without the 15 point deduction. With it, they are no hopers to me, and they will have to get somewhere between 60 and 65 points just avoid relegation to League Two. How are the mighty fallen. (As a Bournemouth fan, you'll forgive me for scoffing at the decline of a once great club with once great fans. Apologies to any genuine Whites supporters reading this).
Swansea (11/1 Skybet) have been knocking on the door in recent seasons, but they've had too many chances already for me. Lee Trundle has Premier League trickery but a distinctly Sunday League work ethic. He's a joy to watch in highlight format though!
Doncaster, with former Cherries man Sean O'Driscoll at the helm, are top priced 11/1 (again with Sporting Odds), and have added ex-Cherries hitman, Jamie Hayter. Hayter once scored four away to Bury, and also scored the fastest ever hat-trick in Football League history against Wrexham (2mins and 20 seconds!).
He is a decent scorer but not a legendary predator by any means. In fact, he only scored ten for the Cherries last year, and was often deployed in a central midfield role.
Donny are a good workmanlike side with an honest and professional manager (though don't look at him for a soundbite, unless you're a big fan of footballing cliche's), but I doubt they're good enough to win this league.
Luton could be entertained at 16/1 (Skybet, Hills). Although relegated from the Championship last year, they have retained a lot of decent players, and they've brought in some impressive and proven names. Paul Peschisolido, Chris Perry, Darren Currie and Paul Furlong may all be closer to getting a bus pass than most players, but they've all been there, seen it and done it, and will bring bags of experience to a squad with some promising youth already on the books.
Further down the card, I like the look of Hartlepool and Bristol Rovers to 'double up' in the promotion stakes. It's been done by a number of teams recently, with Southend and Brighton winning the division after being promoted from League Two the previous year, and Hull and Rotherham both finishing 2nd after promotion. Four teams in the top two in the last six seasons.
So back Hartlepool (11/1 BlueSq, Coral) and Bristol Rovers (14/1 Bet365, Stan James) for promotion. Remember, if either side finishes in the top six and is not automatically promoted, you will have 11's or 14's about a team in the four horse race that is the playoffs. Given the track record of teams coming up, these are the best value bets in the section for me.
And my original (not!) selection to win League One is Nottingham Forest. Sorry.
Onto the horses, and the Winning Racing Tips selections today are opposing Naomh Gheileis with
3.10 Pontefract 0.6pt e/w Effingham (5/1 Sportingodds/StanJames)
3.10 Pontefract 0.4pt e/w Nickel Silver (8/1 Bet365/BetDirect)
Finally, further reminders in case you needed them (!) that you should be entering your Fantasy League team in at http://www.premierleague.com/
Use the signup button to the right of the Budweiser symbol. To join the Nag3 League, where there are prizes to be won (exact nature of these to be revealed over the coming days), enter the following code: 533724-97750
Also, you can still sign up for a 14 day trial of Laying System, by clicking here.
TTFN
Matt
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posted by Matt at
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