Racing Systems Revolution Update: Still Very Interesting...
Blimey, is it Wednesday already, dear reader? Where does the time go?
Today's first post (yes, unlike Royal Mail, you very frequently get more than one post a day from Nag3!) has my first update on the performance of the latest product doing the rounds, Racing Systems Revolution (or RSR, to save my aching digits).
I, like many of you, am always sceptical when I see a product from the Steven Lee Jones 'factory'. He seems to produce so many, and each is claimed to be the final solution, that it rather dilutes his message.
But, in fairness to Jones, he has recognised the 30 second attention span that most of us have, and is pandering to that emotional spot.
I have registered here previously that I don't like his marketing pitch. I will do so again. I don't like his marketing pitch.
But one of the primary purposes of this blog is to get beyond the blusterous hyperbole, and into the nitty gritty; to ask the question, "Never mind the crap, does it actually work?!"
Well, I'm somewhat surprised to tell you that early indications are that there is some credit in this guide.
The objective / system is to identify horses that you can be pretty sure will shorten in the betting in the 10-15 minutes before the off. If you can consistently do this, it gives you two options:
1. Back at a bigger price, then lay for your stake nearer the off. (This gives you a free bet on, usually, the favourite in qualifying races).
2. Back at a bigger price, then lay for slightly more than your stake, thus 'greening up' (i.e. locking in a profit, whichever horse wins).
The method stands or falls then on the consistency of its ability to identify horses that will shorten. Although the rules for this are simple, they are well founded and - ultimately - seem to do the job.
My record for the races I've been able to track over the past two days is as follows:
Monday
Alabama Spirit Odds went from 3.25 into 3 (free bet to win 0.25 points, LOST)
Generous Thought 3.6-3.3 (free bet to win 0.3 points, LOST)
Too Posh To Share 2.1-2.34 (liability of 0.24 points, LOST)
Effigy 4.2-3.85 (free bet to win 0.35 points, LOST)
Tuesday
Starlit Sands 4.3-3.85 (free bet to win 0.45 points, LOST)
Samurai Way 4.6-4.7 (liability of 0.1 points, LOST)
Revue Princess 3-2.6 (free bet to win 0.4 points, WON)
Total Upside Horses: 5
Total Liability Horses: 2
Total upside = 1.75 points
Total liability = 0.34 points
I could have locked in small profits on most of these trades, but chose not to. Further, on an average test window like this, I would have expected a couple more of the horses to have won, thus giving more than the 0.4 points profit that I'm showing.
Five of the seven qualifying horses contracted in the betting, meaning that we could have traded out for a no risk wager.
That's an impressive start, and I'll be tracking the qualifiers still further over the next couple of days.
If you can't wait and want to check it out, you can do so here:
http://tinyurl.com/3bg9la
[Just a point of interest: Revue Princess was a lay for me, and the race was thoroughly unsatisfactory. Started by flag (!!!!!!), she stole four lengths at the start and the other horses blew themselves out playing catch up. She won by less than the margin she nicked. Not that I'm bitter... ahem]
Today's lays are:
Goodwood 4.05 Samira Gold
Goodwood 4.40 Gold Hush
Leicester 7.05 Limbo King
Redcar 2.05 Carnival Queen
Still having a tough time of it currently, alas.
Onto the footy, and specifically Fantasy League, where we all get to show the Whingeing Wengers, Moaning Mourinho's, Fuming Ferguson's, and downright Bonkers Benitez's what they should be doing, and who they should be signing / selecting.
Well done to those early birds who have already submitted their teams for the Nag3 Fantasy Football.
If you're holding out for final transfers before entering your side, note that you can make any amount of changes you like up to kick off day, 11th August, so get a strawman side in now, and mould it over the next ten days.
The link again: http://www.premierleague.com/splash/fantasy/fantasy.html
And the league registration code: 533724-97750
It's FREE and there's prizes, so no excuses!
I'll be banging on about this for the next week and more, so you might as well appease me now and signup ;)
Back later with my Goodwood placepot selections (5 out of 6, and 4th place in the other leg yesterday, but only paid £91. I'm a big 'pot hunter..!)
Matt
Today's first post (yes, unlike Royal Mail, you very frequently get more than one post a day from Nag3!) has my first update on the performance of the latest product doing the rounds, Racing Systems Revolution (or RSR, to save my aching digits).
I, like many of you, am always sceptical when I see a product from the Steven Lee Jones 'factory'. He seems to produce so many, and each is claimed to be the final solution, that it rather dilutes his message.
But, in fairness to Jones, he has recognised the 30 second attention span that most of us have, and is pandering to that emotional spot.
I have registered here previously that I don't like his marketing pitch. I will do so again. I don't like his marketing pitch.
But one of the primary purposes of this blog is to get beyond the blusterous hyperbole, and into the nitty gritty; to ask the question, "Never mind the crap, does it actually work?!"
Well, I'm somewhat surprised to tell you that early indications are that there is some credit in this guide.
The objective / system is to identify horses that you can be pretty sure will shorten in the betting in the 10-15 minutes before the off. If you can consistently do this, it gives you two options:
1. Back at a bigger price, then lay for your stake nearer the off. (This gives you a free bet on, usually, the favourite in qualifying races).
2. Back at a bigger price, then lay for slightly more than your stake, thus 'greening up' (i.e. locking in a profit, whichever horse wins).
The method stands or falls then on the consistency of its ability to identify horses that will shorten. Although the rules for this are simple, they are well founded and - ultimately - seem to do the job.
My record for the races I've been able to track over the past two days is as follows:
Monday
Alabama Spirit Odds went from 3.25 into 3 (free bet to win 0.25 points, LOST)
Generous Thought 3.6-3.3 (free bet to win 0.3 points, LOST)
Too Posh To Share 2.1-2.34 (liability of 0.24 points, LOST)
Effigy 4.2-3.85 (free bet to win 0.35 points, LOST)
Tuesday
Starlit Sands 4.3-3.85 (free bet to win 0.45 points, LOST)
Samurai Way 4.6-4.7 (liability of 0.1 points, LOST)
Revue Princess 3-2.6 (free bet to win 0.4 points, WON)
Total Upside Horses: 5
Total Liability Horses: 2
Total upside = 1.75 points
Total liability = 0.34 points
I could have locked in small profits on most of these trades, but chose not to. Further, on an average test window like this, I would have expected a couple more of the horses to have won, thus giving more than the 0.4 points profit that I'm showing.
Five of the seven qualifying horses contracted in the betting, meaning that we could have traded out for a no risk wager.
That's an impressive start, and I'll be tracking the qualifiers still further over the next couple of days.
If you can't wait and want to check it out, you can do so here:
http://tinyurl.com/3bg9la
[Just a point of interest: Revue Princess was a lay for me, and the race was thoroughly unsatisfactory. Started by flag (!!!!!!), she stole four lengths at the start and the other horses blew themselves out playing catch up. She won by less than the margin she nicked. Not that I'm bitter... ahem]
Today's lays are:
Goodwood 4.05 Samira Gold
Goodwood 4.40 Gold Hush
Leicester 7.05 Limbo King
Redcar 2.05 Carnival Queen
Still having a tough time of it currently, alas.
Onto the footy, and specifically Fantasy League, where we all get to show the Whingeing Wengers, Moaning Mourinho's, Fuming Ferguson's, and downright Bonkers Benitez's what they should be doing, and who they should be signing / selecting.
Well done to those early birds who have already submitted their teams for the Nag3 Fantasy Football.
If you're holding out for final transfers before entering your side, note that you can make any amount of changes you like up to kick off day, 11th August, so get a strawman side in now, and mould it over the next ten days.
The link again: http://www.premierleague.com/splash/fantasy/fantasy.html
And the league registration code: 533724-97750
It's FREE and there's prizes, so no excuses!
I'll be banging on about this for the next week and more, so you might as well appease me now and signup ;)
Back later with my Goodwood placepot selections (5 out of 6, and 4th place in the other leg yesterday, but only paid £91. I'm a big 'pot hunter..!)
Matt
posted by Matt at
07:52
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