More A Small Uprising Than A Revolution: Merit Nevertheless…

As promised, here are my thoughts on the product that you’ve seen a million emails for in recent days, and that I’ve been trialling on the blog: Racing Systems Revolution.

The grandiose title is in no way out of kilter with this systems production unit’s penchant for hyperbole and, if you can see beyond the implausibly conspiratorial approach to the sales bluster, the product is actually pretty good.

Firstly, let me say what it’s not. It’s not really a backing system and it’s not really a laying system. Rather, it’s a means of getting in and out on a bet before a hoof has struck turf in anger.

Yes, it’s a trading system. Of course, any trading system relies on its selection policy consistently picking horses who shorten or lengthen (depending on whether you are to back first, then lay, or vice versa).

The rules for this system are pretty simple, but as I often say, that in itself is not necessarily a bad thing.

Once you’ve identified potential qualifiers, using info freely available on the Racing Post website, you need to monitor the pre-race odds for signs of market support. This is all explained in simple terms and is pretty straightforward to get your head around.

I must concede to only really ever trading on sports events: that is, if I’ve backed a cyclist in the Tour outright events and his odds have truncated, or if I’ve backed a footy team who have scored the first goal, I will always trade out for a free bet.

That’s just common sense: why risk money for no reason?!

Well, this is the racing alternative, except that here you don’t wait for the race to start. Instead, you’re in and out before the gates open or the tape rises.

There are two ways to play it: you can either lock in a free bet (like my sports examples above) – this relies on the selection winning to get a payout, but there is no loss if the selection doesn’t win. Given that you’ll generally be backing well-supported favourites, it’s fair to expect them to win pretty often.

The alternative is to ‘green up’, an exchange expression for when every possible outcome gives you a payout. In this case, you’ll need to lay back more than you originally staked to get a smaller payout than you would if you took the first option. The kickback of course is that you’re guaranteed a return, regardless of whether the selection wins or loses.

“So this is free money then Matt?!”

Er, not quite, no. As with everything, there are no certainties. If the odds go against you, and the horse drifts in the betting after you’ve backed it, you have to mitigate that risk, by laying for your stake at a bigger price and hoping the horse gets beaten (for instance, if you backed at 2.5 and the horse lengthened to 2.76 at which point you laid it, you would have a liability of a quarter of a point IF the horse won. If it was beaten, you’d get your money back).

So the selection method is key, and if it can consistently find shortening horses in the market, then overall you will have plenty of profitable trades to offset the drifters.

OK, that’s the theory, but how did RSR do in practice?

Alabama Spirit Odds went from 3.25 into 3 (free bet to win 0.25 points, LOST)
Generous Thought 3.6-3.3 (free bet to win 0.3 points, LOST)
Too Posh To Share 2.1-2.34 (liability of 0.24 points, LOST)
Effigy 4.2-3.85 (free bet to win 0.35 points, LOST)
Starlit Sands 4.3-3.85 (free bet to win 0.45 points, LOST)
Samurai Way 4.6-4.7 (liability of 0.1 points, LOST)
Revue Princess 3-2.6 (free bet to win 0.4 points, WON)
Legendary Guest 2.46-2.18 (free bet to win 0.28 points, WON)
Nassau Style 3.3-3.75 (liability of 0.45 points, LOST)
Love That Benny 3.7-3.1 (free bet to win 0.6 points, WON)
Sam's Secret 2.34-2.2 (free bet to win 0.14 points, WON)
Shanahan 2.26-2.06 (free bet to win 0.2 points, LOST)
Pivotal Queen 3-3.1 (liability of 0.1 points, LOST)
Enticing 5.2-5 (free bet for 0.2 points, LOST)
Badalona 4.5-4.1 (free bet for 0.4 points, LOST)
Cave Of The Giant 2.9-2.3 (free bet for 0.6 points, LOST)
Dark Parade 2.6-2.1 (free bet for 0.5 points, LOST)

Total Upside Horses: 13
Total Liability Horses: 4

Total upside = 4.67 points
Total liability = 0.89 points

Remember that on every horse that moved inwards in the betting, you could have guaranteed a profit. Given that over three quarters moved in the right direction, that’s pretty good.

Also, looking at the upside versus liability statements, that strongly favours you from a trading perspective.

The only disappointment was how many of these horses went on to get beaten, suggesting that a lot of punters ‘did it in’ this last week (not just me!).

Interestingly, all four liability horses lost, supporting the perceived correlation between lack of market support and a horse’s chance.

Of course, just as I expect more of the shortening horses to win in the longer term, so I expect some of the liability horses to win as well.

Overall, despite the fact that this comes from a ‘factory’ whose style I don’t really like, I have to recommend this product as it does work.

There is sound logic in the selection process, which means it’s easy to see why these horses would be (over)bet. Herein lies the edge.

As with all products sold via Clickbank, if you don’t like it or its not for you, you can get your money back. (Do this via Clickbank rather than writing to the author, as you'll wait a verrry long time otherwise)

If you want to read more about it, or try a copy, click here. (Remember, although I condone the product, I cannot possibly condone the terribly over the top “the world is out to get you” sales pitch. You might want to go directly to the ‘buy now’ link and spare yourself the sick bucket experience…)

Matt