Another Saturday, Another Insoluble Handicap To Have A Crack At!
Ah, Saturday, dear reader, and at last a few moments to surface for air.
Firstly, apologies for the brevity of most of my posts this past week. As you may have gathered, I've been a busy bunny and, to make matters worse, my laptop had a 'moment' yesterday which caused great consternation in this part of Hackney!
All seems to have reverted to normal now, and I am reminded of the need to back up my data, through bitter experience...
The reason for my busyness is that I have been gleefully immersed in a stats and data fest, as a result of my research for TrainerTrackStats. The trends seem to be stronger than ever and I'm excited about some of the new boys appearing for the first time, David Pipe being the key one.
More on this over the next fortnight, but suffice it to say, I'm already looking forward to the jumps season getting started 'for real' in September.
Today's racing looks competitive, and no more so than Ripon's insoluble Great St Wilfred Handicap, a classic cavalry charge over three quarters of a mile.
Although there are 23 runners, the stats point strongly to a high draw bias, with eight of the last ten winners drawn within eight boxes of the top draw. The other two winners were drawn 2 and 4, both on good to firm. It seems that when the ground is genuinely fast both rails are favoured.
Today, with the going described as good, I expect to be able to discount any horse exiting a gate numbered 16 or lower.
This is a race for decent priced winners, with eight of the last ten winners figuring at double digit odds, though no winner was greater than 20/1.
Four year olds have a fine record, and no fewer than six of the last ten winners were from this age group.
On this basis, the unexposed course and distance winner Obe Brave will carry my shekels today. He has some decent form in the book, goes well fresh and has the stats in his favour. Available at 20/1 (22 on betfair, interestingly he is comfortably the second best backed horse in the race as I write with £22,000 matched out of a total of £148,000).
Over at Newbury, the Hungerford Stakes, a Group 2 over a furlong shy of a mile, looks a belter of a race.
Again, there are some pretty strong trends, as follows:
4 or 5yo winner: 8/10
13/2 or shorter: 9/10
9 stone or less: 8/10
Colts/ geldings: 9/10
Gosden: 3/10
I reluctantly discount the fillies in the race (Wake Up Maggie and Silver Touch), because the boys tend to hold sway at the highest level in Group races. (Over the last five seasons in all sex Group races, fillies shorter than 15/2 have won 12.5% of the time compared with colts at 15/2 or shorter winning 22%).
Focusing on 4 or 5 year old colts whose odds are around 7/1 or shorter, gives us Red Evie and Stronghold. Although the former is unbeaten at this track, this is clearly a race John Gosden loves to win (three winners and a third from just five runners in the past decade), and his Stronghold will do for me.
Finally, the increasingly impressive Racing Members Club continues its rich vein of form with both of its lays yesterday well and truly stuffed. That's now 14 from 15 beaten, which is excellent.
I'll post the selections today and tomorrow, before posting a review of the service.
Sign up here: http://tinyurl.com/2ul5j9
Cheers
Matt
Firstly, apologies for the brevity of most of my posts this past week. As you may have gathered, I've been a busy bunny and, to make matters worse, my laptop had a 'moment' yesterday which caused great consternation in this part of Hackney!
All seems to have reverted to normal now, and I am reminded of the need to back up my data, through bitter experience...
The reason for my busyness is that I have been gleefully immersed in a stats and data fest, as a result of my research for TrainerTrackStats. The trends seem to be stronger than ever and I'm excited about some of the new boys appearing for the first time, David Pipe being the key one.
More on this over the next fortnight, but suffice it to say, I'm already looking forward to the jumps season getting started 'for real' in September.
Today's racing looks competitive, and no more so than Ripon's insoluble Great St Wilfred Handicap, a classic cavalry charge over three quarters of a mile.
Although there are 23 runners, the stats point strongly to a high draw bias, with eight of the last ten winners drawn within eight boxes of the top draw. The other two winners were drawn 2 and 4, both on good to firm. It seems that when the ground is genuinely fast both rails are favoured.
Today, with the going described as good, I expect to be able to discount any horse exiting a gate numbered 16 or lower.
This is a race for decent priced winners, with eight of the last ten winners figuring at double digit odds, though no winner was greater than 20/1.
Four year olds have a fine record, and no fewer than six of the last ten winners were from this age group.
On this basis, the unexposed course and distance winner Obe Brave will carry my shekels today. He has some decent form in the book, goes well fresh and has the stats in his favour. Available at 20/1 (22 on betfair, interestingly he is comfortably the second best backed horse in the race as I write with £22,000 matched out of a total of £148,000).
Over at Newbury, the Hungerford Stakes, a Group 2 over a furlong shy of a mile, looks a belter of a race.
Again, there are some pretty strong trends, as follows:
4 or 5yo winner: 8/10
13/2 or shorter: 9/10
9 stone or less: 8/10
Colts/ geldings: 9/10
Gosden: 3/10
I reluctantly discount the fillies in the race (Wake Up Maggie and Silver Touch), because the boys tend to hold sway at the highest level in Group races. (Over the last five seasons in all sex Group races, fillies shorter than 15/2 have won 12.5% of the time compared with colts at 15/2 or shorter winning 22%).
Focusing on 4 or 5 year old colts whose odds are around 7/1 or shorter, gives us Red Evie and Stronghold. Although the former is unbeaten at this track, this is clearly a race John Gosden loves to win (three winners and a third from just five runners in the past decade), and his Stronghold will do for me.
Finally, the increasingly impressive Racing Members Club continues its rich vein of form with both of its lays yesterday well and truly stuffed. That's now 14 from 15 beaten, which is excellent.
I'll post the selections today and tomorrow, before posting a review of the service.
Sign up here: http://tinyurl.com/2ul5j9
Cheers
Matt
posted by Matt at
10:21
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