Almost Jumping!
Hello again, dear reader, from your occasional posting virtual horse racing friend.
Before I begin, another apology.... Now I would never advise anybody to ask me to navigate for them on a road trip, and my pedantic (though absolutely correct) correspondent Kev has highlighted another error in my scribblings. This time, it relates to the part of France I was in at the weekend.
It seems that I was not in Brittany, but rather in Pas De Calais, some couple of hundred miles east along the coast. Nevertheless, it was marvellous, and the first of the 'vin' has been consumed. :)
Kev likes to pick me up on my errors and, as one pedant to another, I like to be corrected! Thanks mate!
On to horsey stuff, and I just wanted to give you a quick update on TrainerTrackStats' progress. Well, the research is now complete and today, I shall be 'making the cut' (i.e. deciding which trainers get in and which do not).
I will share with you those that miss the cut, to give you an indication of the data in the guide, but also because these guys are worth following in their own right.
Look out for a further post on this, either late tomorrow or Saturday.
I am really excited about the information I've gathered, and am looking forward to sharing it.
Onto today's racing and, although it looks pretty miserable fare, I think I've found a couple of opportunities.
Firstly, let's rock up to Musselburgh (where my mate Jerry is punting today - strange venue for a South London based Chelsea fan, but he has business up that way which I guess is why he's there rather than at Lingfield!).
In the 5f sprints, high numbers have been favoured on fast ground for years. So, I'll cut this fourteen runner affair down to size by only looking at double figure draws (could be careless as the forecast favourite is in box 9...).
The five of interest to me then are, in racecard order, Strensall, Methaaly, Strawberry Patch, Seafield Towers, and Mutayam.
Strensall: All 8 wins have been over 5f, 7 of 8 on good ground or faster. Course and distance winner operating in the right grade, from almost the pick of the draw and with a decent jockey up. Very interesting.
Methaaly: Never won at 5f, though has come close (all 3 wins at 6f). Never won a handicap in this class. I'm not sure about the apprentice jockey either. Swerve.
Strawberry Patch: 3 times a course and distance winner; all four career wins over 5f; has not won in this class since 2004; last two course and distance starts, was outclassed in higher grade, then was unlucky in running and not beaten far at this level. Interesting each way contender at big price.
Seafield Towers: Not won for two years, formerly useful, but seems very much on the downgrade now. Finished almost last or last in eight of last nine starts. Big leap of faith required.
Mutayam: 1 win from 37 starts, and that a 66/1 shocker 3 years ago. Hasn't been in the first four in TWENTY starts since. Won't change that today.
So for me, the 25 on betfair about Strensall looks huge, and the Strawberry Patch at around 16's is also worthy of each way interest.
On the laying side of things, I'll wander down to Lingfield, and take a couple on.
Firstly, Central Force in the 2.50 looks the most consistent, but may very well not have the race run to suit today. In a race with a lot of contenders, he looks short enough at around 5/2.
At 4.20, a nothing looking maiden has Richard Hannon's Ike Quebec currently trading at 3.15. Having his first run on the sand today, he looks a false favourite to me. V Haigh's Honey Monster has the best form, is open to improvement (as is the favourite, and just about every other horse in the race!), and has a decent sand run under his belt.
There are other possibles in the race as well, with Mark Johnston's Cordon Bleu, as well as unexposed horses from the yards of Stan Moore, Jamie Osborne, Neville Callaghan, and Marcus Tregoning, so Hannon's horse is a lay for me.
Hope your punting is treating you well, and that you're almost ready for some jumping action!
Matt
Before I begin, another apology.... Now I would never advise anybody to ask me to navigate for them on a road trip, and my pedantic (though absolutely correct) correspondent Kev has highlighted another error in my scribblings. This time, it relates to the part of France I was in at the weekend.
It seems that I was not in Brittany, but rather in Pas De Calais, some couple of hundred miles east along the coast. Nevertheless, it was marvellous, and the first of the 'vin' has been consumed. :)
Kev likes to pick me up on my errors and, as one pedant to another, I like to be corrected! Thanks mate!
On to horsey stuff, and I just wanted to give you a quick update on TrainerTrackStats' progress. Well, the research is now complete and today, I shall be 'making the cut' (i.e. deciding which trainers get in and which do not).
I will share with you those that miss the cut, to give you an indication of the data in the guide, but also because these guys are worth following in their own right.
Look out for a further post on this, either late tomorrow or Saturday.
I am really excited about the information I've gathered, and am looking forward to sharing it.
Onto today's racing and, although it looks pretty miserable fare, I think I've found a couple of opportunities.
Firstly, let's rock up to Musselburgh (where my mate Jerry is punting today - strange venue for a South London based Chelsea fan, but he has business up that way which I guess is why he's there rather than at Lingfield!).
In the 5f sprints, high numbers have been favoured on fast ground for years. So, I'll cut this fourteen runner affair down to size by only looking at double figure draws (could be careless as the forecast favourite is in box 9...).
The five of interest to me then are, in racecard order, Strensall, Methaaly, Strawberry Patch, Seafield Towers, and Mutayam.
Strensall: All 8 wins have been over 5f, 7 of 8 on good ground or faster. Course and distance winner operating in the right grade, from almost the pick of the draw and with a decent jockey up. Very interesting.
Methaaly: Never won at 5f, though has come close (all 3 wins at 6f). Never won a handicap in this class. I'm not sure about the apprentice jockey either. Swerve.
Strawberry Patch: 3 times a course and distance winner; all four career wins over 5f; has not won in this class since 2004; last two course and distance starts, was outclassed in higher grade, then was unlucky in running and not beaten far at this level. Interesting each way contender at big price.
Seafield Towers: Not won for two years, formerly useful, but seems very much on the downgrade now. Finished almost last or last in eight of last nine starts. Big leap of faith required.
Mutayam: 1 win from 37 starts, and that a 66/1 shocker 3 years ago. Hasn't been in the first four in TWENTY starts since. Won't change that today.
So for me, the 25 on betfair about Strensall looks huge, and the Strawberry Patch at around 16's is also worthy of each way interest.
On the laying side of things, I'll wander down to Lingfield, and take a couple on.
Firstly, Central Force in the 2.50 looks the most consistent, but may very well not have the race run to suit today. In a race with a lot of contenders, he looks short enough at around 5/2.
At 4.20, a nothing looking maiden has Richard Hannon's Ike Quebec currently trading at 3.15. Having his first run on the sand today, he looks a false favourite to me. V Haigh's Honey Monster has the best form, is open to improvement (as is the favourite, and just about every other horse in the race!), and has a decent sand run under his belt.
There are other possibles in the race as well, with Mark Johnston's Cordon Bleu, as well as unexposed horses from the yards of Stan Moore, Jamie Osborne, Neville Callaghan, and Marcus Tregoning, so Hannon's horse is a lay for me.
Hope your punting is treating you well, and that you're almost ready for some jumping action!
Matt
posted by Matt at
09:00
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