The Abridged Premier League Betting Preview, Plus Some Hard Core League Two Action

Starting this week's series of footy previews, and I'm going to look at the Premier League and League Two.

Firstly, the winner of the Premier League this season will be Manchester United (best price 2.44 with betfair, 7/5 expekt.com). No ifs, no buts.

Chelsea (2.98 betfair, 15/8 Betdirect) have a horrendous injury list currently, and may drop points early on. Even if they don't, I'm expecting some fireworks in the Stamford Bridge camp when the likes of Ballack and Shevchenko aren't getting regular first team games.

Claudio Pizzaro looks a player to watch: I've always like him and I think his game is well suited to the Premiership but, with Drogba missing the start and away on African Nation’s Cup duty in January / February, I think Chelsea will struggle to score goals this season.

Liverpool (6.8 betfair, 6/1 Betfred) have bought a lot players and have an excellent squad. I still have a few reservations about their goalscoring abilities, but they'll likely be the tightest defence in the league (important if you're considering defenders for your Fantasy League team).

Arsenal (11.5 betfair, 11/1 Bet365) will be fantastic on the eye, but frustrating in front of goal, despite the addition of a predatory striker in Eduardo Da Silva (I reckon this boy get a bagful of goals this year).

But if there's one team who may break into the elite quartet this season, its free-spending Spurs.

I like Martin Jol as a manager, and I think he's mollycoddled the young boys at Spurs very well. This year he's going to expect them to grow into men, and he's getting rid of the troublemakers.

So, exit stage left Mido, Ghaly and - if he can find a buyer – Jermaine Jenas. Enter Darren Bent, super striker.

My tip for the top of the scoring charts is Tottenham's big summer signing from relegated Charlton. This boy scored 13 goals last season playing in a woeful side that was relegated.

With the service available to him at Spurs, I am expecting him to get closer to 20 goals.

He also looks very interesting at 13/2 (already been backed in from 8/1) to be top British and Irish striker with Skybet. Better still, if you use the skybet link on this page to sign up, you’ll get your wager matched up to £20 (if you’re not already a skybet customer).

My full top scorer thoughts will appear later in the week, but suffice it to say, Benty Boy is one of my two selections.

League Two

No such thing as a two, three or even four horse race in basement division, with any number of teams pitching for promotion. I’ve narrowed it down to four, who I think will fight it out come the business end of the season.

First up, unsurprisingly, is Peterborough (4/1 Betfred, Paddy Power). Managed by Sir Alex Ferguson’s son, Darren, and bankrolled by a wealthy Irishman, free spending Posh have a hell of a lot going for them.

It is normally a side with either money, or prudent use of the loans market, that wins this division. Posh have both. You can be sure that if Derby or Wolves or their ilk want to borrow a Manchester United player, they need to be happy to send a boy or two to London Road this season.

But what of their current squad?

In goal, they’ve got the reliable but not special Mark Tyler. He’s a Peterborough institution and needs just five more games to reach his 400^th appearance.

Defended by the likes of Adam Newton and Chris Westwood, Tyler shouldn’t feel too vulnerable but the missed catch of Steve Elliott from Bristol Rovers must smart, and I’d like to see them strengthening the back four.

Scoring goals however will not be a problem. Posh will be the top scoring team in the league this season, it’s just a question of how many they let in.

In Craig Mackail-Smith (CMS), they have what many people believe to be the best striker in the division. He’s a 16/1 shot to be top scorer and will miss the first couple of games, recovering from a pre-season injury. But I think he’s a decent bet to top the scoring charts.

Others who will be chasing double figure goal tallies on the Posh roster include Danny Crow and Aaron MacLean, but CMS should be first choice and should hit a bundle.

The midfield is the best in the division in my opinion, with proven League One players such as Dean Keates (from Walsall), Micah Hyde, and Gavin Strachan supported by exciting talents like Josh Lowe, Charlie Lee and George Boyd.

If it wasn’t for the potentially porous defence I wouldn’t be able to look past Peterborough. But to win consistently, you have to keep the oppo at bay, and I really feel this will be a struggle unless they invest in their defence.

Saying that, if they bring in a couple of decent proven defenders, they’ll be very very tough to beat.

Elsewhere, I like the prospects of Chesterfield, Darlington and – at any price you like – Dagenham.

Chesterfield (14/1 generally) were the best of the relegated teams last season, beating Bradford, Brentford and Rotherham, and I am confident they will do well this season.

The record of teams relegated from League One bouncing back is above average, and the Spireites have retained most of their squad from last year. They’ve bolstered the side with the signings of Jack Lester from Forest and my mate, SuperFletch (that’s Steve Fletcher to you) from Bournemouth. Lester is a class act on his day, and Fletcher – though slow as a boat and with a wider turning circle – will challenge as the best target man in the division. He rarely gets beaten to a header.

Darlington (14/1 generally) are my friend’s tip and he’s very strong on them. He’s backed them accordingly. The have a proven manager in Dave Penney, who worked the oracle out of this section with Doncaster previously, getting that side out of the Conference before winning League Two.

The side has oodles of experience, with the likes of Steve Foster, Andy Oakes and Pawel Abbot added to the squad, and my concern is that they will likely have too many new faces to effectively gel straight away. I expect Darlo to make big strides as the season progresses, but much will depend upon whether they can hit the ground running.

A good bet for Darlo then is to back them for promotion (3/1 widely available), where you will get three automatic spots, plus a run for your money (and an opportunity to trade out) if they finish in the top seven – and therefore make the playoffs. 3/1 about making the playoffs is more than fair…

Finally, my each way shout is Dagenham (33/1 Skybet and others). A fair few teams have come out of the Conference and been pretty competitive in this league, and the Daggers (my local team for three years) strolled home in that division last season.

They don’t have too many household names in the squad (but then, which League Two sides do?!), but in Paul Benson they have a striker who proved himself capable of filling the considerable void left by CMS’ departure to Peterborough.

I reckon that they are decent value for small stakes, and the top priced 9/1 offered by Skybet for promotion looks cracking value. Remember, if they finish in the top seven, you’ve either collected already via the automatic spots, or you’ve got 9/1 in the four horse playoff race, and can easily lay off for a profit or your stakes back.

I’ve put the skybet link on the page for a few reasons, as follows:

1. Its an account you’re less likely to have than say Ladbrokes
2. They go best price on many football wagers, and are clearly striving for market share in that sport
3. You get a free bet when you sign up, up to £20
4. I get something out of it when you sign up too ;-)
   

FFL

While we’re on the subject of footy, don’t forget the Fantasy League competition that I’m running through the official Premier League site. Its free to enter, and will be a lot of fun. If your team does well, you can expect a namecheck or two as the season progresses, and there will be prizes on offer as well.

Get your team registered here:

http://fantasy.premierleague.com/

(Look on the right side for the 'Sign Up' link).

The code for the league is 533724-97750.

See if you can work out who at least one of my strike force is... ;)
Matt