The (Sporting) Weekend Starts Here!

Good morning dear reader once again, from my comfy sofa in Hackney and, as I watch the golf on TV, I am dribbly-mouthed at the sporting action in prospect from now until Sunday.

Not only has The Open Golf Championship started this morning, with the Tigger bidding for three Open pots in a row, but also the Tour will be ratcheted up still further with the first distance time trial on Saturday, followed by a return to the mountains (this time the Pyrenees) on Sunday.

Throw in the 1st Test against India, for those of you who enjoy cricket (personally, I'm only interested when the prospect of a touch of Aussie-baiting arises - apologies to some of my Antipodean readers!); the European Grand Prix from the Nurburgring will get the petrol heads greased up (though, again, not for me - I can't even drive!); and there is cracking racing action from Newbury.

But it doesn't even stop there. There is also the amazing Speedway World Championships from Poland.... OK, OK, I'm labouring the point now, but you catch my drift.

My advice is to grab some tinnies (or tea bags, whatever is your poison), stock up on TV dinners, get the shopping / DIY / dogwalking done very early, and prey for rain, so that your sports viewing edification is unhindered by other demands from the cherished ones around you.

I love to watch golf with a bet on - I'm a terrible golfer (and I mean terrible), but I've historically been a fair punter. Armed with the golf betting bible, Elliott's Golf Form (if you bet on golf, you should have this book), I've found more than my fair share of winners in the past.

Alas, this year, I decided I didn't have the time to do it any more, and I've missed it. So my tips for the Open this time are pretty uninformed, but I'll offer you them nevertheless.

I have gone for experienced guys who know how to win on the European Tour. My three off the tee are: Retief Goosen, Michael Campbell and Sergio Garcia.

I don't have time either to share with you their stats / my rationale for following them, but these are the trio that will carry my interest wagers this weekend.

Onto more common ground now, and yesterday's racing saw the Betting Exchange Profits system go down on the first leg again, when Dresden Doll, whom I'd backed for a place, failed to get in the first half dozen.

The system still stands at +£18.87 in its trial, so I can't be too unkind about it (yet), and we'll see today whether it goes into positive or negative equity. More on that later.

My own little lay system is gathering pace: after a very promising start, 12th July saw it pick out four winners from ten selections (including 6/1 and 7/2 shots) to eat into my profits quite a bit.

Since then however, it's picked 19 losers out of 20, including 2/1, 7/4, 5/4, 6/5 and 4/5 favourites.

I am still playing around with the system criteria a little, as I'm not a big fan of laying horses at anything bigger than 3/1 or thereabouts. This, of course, means I'll probably find more winners, but there will be less pain associated with their prevalence on the podium.

More on this as the data gathers - for info, I have seven qualifiers today, and I am due a revers after 19 successful from 20. [Always keep in mind, "After a good run, expect a bad run. After a bad run, expect a good run."] Incidentally, there are not normally seven or ten qualifiers. The average is nearer three or four, which I find considerably more manageable.

The short ones in my septet for today are Rare Coincidence, Lavender Moon and Pentatonic, so we'll see. Frankly, though, I'm braced for a 'correction'. The overall pattern of losers to winners remains extremely promising and - at close of play yesterday - I'm £592 up for £20 units since 28th May (with all expenses accounted for).

On to Le Tour and, after getting two of my five against the field yesterday into the final breakaway quintet (Sandy Casar 50/1 and Jens Voigt 25/1), I was disappointed to watch Casar mistime his sprint by the minimum margin and finish second. I only put a couple of quid on each but, much more annoyingly, I'm still awaiting my first stage win of the race.

Sandy Casar, in white and in front, albeit a few metres after the line... Bugger.





Today, the peloton will cycle due west along the south coast of France, from Marseille to Montpellier. The course is mostly flat, but there will be meteorological challenges aplenty.

The forecast is for a scorcher, and the heat will be combined with strong coastal breezes, which will likely see the riders form arrow shaped echelons as they race. It's all about aerodynamism and is a great spectacle. I'll try to bring a picture of it tomorrow if I can source one.

To the winner today... yeah, like I know - I can't pick my nose! The betting has the sprinters to the fore, with Boonen at the top of the market (around 4/1 on betfair). I'm not sure the group will be together for a sprint finish.

However, as insurance, I'll take my sprinter, Thor Hushovd, at a little over 8/1 in case it is a bunch finish. It's worth remembering that, despite his daily skinny odds, Boonen only won one stage last year, and has only won one stage this year. Hushovd won two last year, and has also picked up one this year. He's strong and may prevail if it becomes a cavalry charge for the line.

If it's to be a breakaway, the usual suspects (Voigt, Casar) will be spent forces after yesterday, so I'll side with a couple of my normal speculatives: Phillipe Gilbert (42 on betfair as I write) and Alessandro Ballan (26 on betfair).

I've nominated both previously and, as both are capable one day riders, I'll shout them again, considerably more in hope than expectation. My combined stage wager will not reach double digit quids, so you can gauge my confidence for yourself!

That's all for now. I'm off to make a cup of tea and watch a Tiger on the prowl...

Matt