Contre Le Montre...
Rejoice dear reader, for today the Tour picture becomes clearer. Today the riders will not race against each other, but rather they will race against the clock (in French, literally, contre le montre).
And in so doing, when no man can ask his teammates for support, or to chase a breakaway down, or to slow a rider who has scurried up a mountain, the men will become separated from the boys.
Except that in this race, they are all men. So it might be more correct to say the supermen will be separated from the men.
Semantic pedantics aside, and there are only a few with serious aspirations of winning today's stage. For many others, notably Michael Rasmussen, but also Alberto and Alejandro (that's Contador and Valverde to you), the day will be about damage limitation.
These guys know that Andreas Kloden will take time from them. They also fear that Cadel Evans and, to a lesser extent, Alex Vinokourov will distance themselves in the General Classement.
For Rasmussen, who is a mediocre time triallist, the biggest challenge will be to retain the golden jersey at day's end.
Kloden is but 3 minutes 50 seconds back, Evans just 2' 41" behind the Great Dane. Both could surpass Rasmussen today.
That said, rumours of Razz's demise may prove somewhat premature, as - although he isn't the best TT'er by any stretch of the imagination - he has something to really fight for this time, and he'll surely not have the luck that saw him crash twice in last year's TT event.
Today, though, he'll be delighted to lose just two minutes. He'll be happy to lose three minutes, and he'll likely not be too disappointed to lose three and a half minutes.
His biggest problem is that this is the first of two contre le montre's in this year's race, and he'll not be allowed to get away in the Pyrenees as he was in the Alps. For me, Rasmussen's chance of the overall victory is slim.
I expect there to be only a couple of GC contenders to come up smelling of roses today: Kloden and Evans.
Vino, despite his hugely admirable battling qualities (lesser men would long since have headed home), will try for a big ride today, but his knees are bloodied and stitched and - in truth - so is his will.
For all that I think Klodie and Cadel will enhance their overall prospects today, I don't necessarily think they will win the stage. It's worth remembering that Kloden has never won a Tour stage, but has finished second four times.
Today may be his maiden victory, but I'd rather side with a couple of others, namely Fabian Cancellara and Denis Menchov.
The first named is a TT specialist, having won the prologue in this race by a wide margin, and also the World TT Championship. His price of 6/4 reflects that, and - although those odds are skinny - he must be in the first two, bar a fall.
Menchov is a nag of an altogether blacker caste (that's a dark horse, my friends!). He is an excellent clock racer, and came into the Tour as the team leader for Rabobank before being usurped by his mountaineering mate, Michael (of the Rasmussen clan).
This man is a mean TT'er and has a point to prove. 100/1 is a standout price on a guy with a genuine chance. Back him each way and you could easily be picking up a 25/1 payout for a place, perhaps better.
After a dismal run of trying to pick stage winners, I'm confident I have the first five home today.
So here we go:
1. Cancellara
2. Kloden
3. Menchov
4. Evans
5. Vinokourov (or maybe Kashechkin)
Time will tell. Quite literally today.
Matt
And in so doing, when no man can ask his teammates for support, or to chase a breakaway down, or to slow a rider who has scurried up a mountain, the men will become separated from the boys.
Except that in this race, they are all men. So it might be more correct to say the supermen will be separated from the men.
Semantic pedantics aside, and there are only a few with serious aspirations of winning today's stage. For many others, notably Michael Rasmussen, but also Alberto and Alejandro (that's Contador and Valverde to you), the day will be about damage limitation.
These guys know that Andreas Kloden will take time from them. They also fear that Cadel Evans and, to a lesser extent, Alex Vinokourov will distance themselves in the General Classement.
For Rasmussen, who is a mediocre time triallist, the biggest challenge will be to retain the golden jersey at day's end.
Kloden is but 3 minutes 50 seconds back, Evans just 2' 41" behind the Great Dane. Both could surpass Rasmussen today.
That said, rumours of Razz's demise may prove somewhat premature, as - although he isn't the best TT'er by any stretch of the imagination - he has something to really fight for this time, and he'll surely not have the luck that saw him crash twice in last year's TT event.
Today, though, he'll be delighted to lose just two minutes. He'll be happy to lose three minutes, and he'll likely not be too disappointed to lose three and a half minutes.
His biggest problem is that this is the first of two contre le montre's in this year's race, and he'll not be allowed to get away in the Pyrenees as he was in the Alps. For me, Rasmussen's chance of the overall victory is slim.
I expect there to be only a couple of GC contenders to come up smelling of roses today: Kloden and Evans.
Vino, despite his hugely admirable battling qualities (lesser men would long since have headed home), will try for a big ride today, but his knees are bloodied and stitched and - in truth - so is his will.
For all that I think Klodie and Cadel will enhance their overall prospects today, I don't necessarily think they will win the stage. It's worth remembering that Kloden has never won a Tour stage, but has finished second four times.
Today may be his maiden victory, but I'd rather side with a couple of others, namely Fabian Cancellara and Denis Menchov.
The first named is a TT specialist, having won the prologue in this race by a wide margin, and also the World TT Championship. His price of 6/4 reflects that, and - although those odds are skinny - he must be in the first two, bar a fall.
Menchov is a nag of an altogether blacker caste (that's a dark horse, my friends!). He is an excellent clock racer, and came into the Tour as the team leader for Rabobank before being usurped by his mountaineering mate, Michael (of the Rasmussen clan).
This man is a mean TT'er and has a point to prove. 100/1 is a standout price on a guy with a genuine chance. Back him each way and you could easily be picking up a 25/1 payout for a place, perhaps better.
After a dismal run of trying to pick stage winners, I'm confident I have the first five home today.
So here we go:
1. Cancellara
2. Kloden
3. Menchov
4. Evans
5. Vinokourov (or maybe Kashechkin)
Time will tell. Quite literally today.
Matt
Labels: Tour De France
posted by Matt at
10:15
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