Betting Exchange Profits System Preview: I Have A Bad Feeling About This One...
Good morning dear reader, and I trust these words find you refreshed and invigorated after the weekend.
As regular readers will know, one of the objectives of this site is to honestly and fairly appraise horse racing systems in 'real time', i.e. I put up the selections ahead of racing, and we see how they go.
I've pretty much only reviewed lay systems to date, which have mostly done well (I guess its far easier to pick losers than winners - in the short term at least). If you've missed any of those reviews, you can see them at:
http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/premiumsystems.html
I've also included a few pointers there about what they are, who they're primarily pitched at, and whether in my opinion they offer value for money.
Today, I'm going to start a week long trial of a system called 'Betting Exchange Profits'. It's not a particularly new system to the market, but it has been extensively promoted on google, and I am interested to see if the reality matches the promotion hype.
The sales blurb says Jason Chesters (the author) now works one hour a day and makes £1000 a week. Well, if that's true, I want a slice of it!
So what is Betting Exchange Profits (BEP), and how does it work? BEP is a 66 page ebook, which outlines the system and then goes into detail with examples of how it works.
I should say that, without wishing to prejudge its performance, I found a number of things not to my liking in the guide, as follows:
- I don't agree with Jason's contention that racing is fixed (except in a miniscule subset of races. This belief is peddled by losers looking for a scapegoat, rather than looking at their own betting habits).
- Fundamentally, the method and examples do not account for betting commission on winning trades. This difference of 5% per trade is especially important with an approach such as the one mooted here, where winnings from one trade are rolled onto a series of further trades.
- In the examples, Jason breaks a number of his own rules, such as price thresholds. This implies that the 'system' is interpretable. I never like systems that are not absolute and categorical in their ruleset.
- The obvious system bet was discounted in one race in favour of another - less obvious - qualifier. The obvious horse lost and the other won.
- In suggesting the system will also work on sports, notably football, Jason suggests that you can use it blindly backing short favourites. For me, this will guarantee a trip to the poor house.
So... I am pessimistic about the chances of this guide, but nevertheless I will give it a chance.
The nature of it is that I won't be able to put the selections up in real time, because I need to monitor the pre-race market in the ten minutes leading up to the races. But here's what I'm trying to do:
I'm looking for a series of five or six horses, which the author calls a 'cycle', and the cycle is one part of a set. So, basically, today will be one cycle of five days (and therefore five cycles) this week. The full five cycles will be a set.
Based on the odds of the horses in the races, and their fluctuations prior to the races, I will either back or lay outright or for a place. I will only select one horse per race, and I am trying to get five winners (be they place lays, win only, or any of the other combinations).
I will start with a notional £100 and try to increase it through the five races in my cycle. If I achieve this, I will stop and take my profit.
The theory is that one winner in the set (i.e. the series of cycles this week) will pay for losing days. So, I'm certainly not expecting every day to be a winning day, and indeed I wonder if we will have any winning days.
Jason reckons that in a seven day set, if you're looking to get six in a row for a cycle, you should be able to consistently get two a week up. On that basis, between now and Friday I'm expecting at least one winning day in my quest for five up.
We'll see...
I'll post the results of Day One later this afternoon, as the cycle will be complete by around 3.30pm.
Nothing to get too excited about today at the races, though on the laying front I'll probably take on Sir Michael Stoute's unexposed Fourteenth at Windsor this evening. At 13/8 or thereabouts, he looks plenty short enough, based on achievement to date. There is likely more to come, but I reckon there are other improvers in here too, so will take my chance.
Good luck, and check back later for the results of day one with Betting Exchange Profits.
Matt
As regular readers will know, one of the objectives of this site is to honestly and fairly appraise horse racing systems in 'real time', i.e. I put up the selections ahead of racing, and we see how they go.
I've pretty much only reviewed lay systems to date, which have mostly done well (I guess its far easier to pick losers than winners - in the short term at least). If you've missed any of those reviews, you can see them at:
http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/premiumsystems.html
I've also included a few pointers there about what they are, who they're primarily pitched at, and whether in my opinion they offer value for money.
Today, I'm going to start a week long trial of a system called 'Betting Exchange Profits'. It's not a particularly new system to the market, but it has been extensively promoted on google, and I am interested to see if the reality matches the promotion hype.
The sales blurb says Jason Chesters (the author) now works one hour a day and makes £1000 a week. Well, if that's true, I want a slice of it!
So what is Betting Exchange Profits (BEP), and how does it work? BEP is a 66 page ebook, which outlines the system and then goes into detail with examples of how it works.
I should say that, without wishing to prejudge its performance, I found a number of things not to my liking in the guide, as follows:
- I don't agree with Jason's contention that racing is fixed (except in a miniscule subset of races. This belief is peddled by losers looking for a scapegoat, rather than looking at their own betting habits).
- Fundamentally, the method and examples do not account for betting commission on winning trades. This difference of 5% per trade is especially important with an approach such as the one mooted here, where winnings from one trade are rolled onto a series of further trades.
- In the examples, Jason breaks a number of his own rules, such as price thresholds. This implies that the 'system' is interpretable. I never like systems that are not absolute and categorical in their ruleset.
- The obvious system bet was discounted in one race in favour of another - less obvious - qualifier. The obvious horse lost and the other won.
- In suggesting the system will also work on sports, notably football, Jason suggests that you can use it blindly backing short favourites. For me, this will guarantee a trip to the poor house.
So... I am pessimistic about the chances of this guide, but nevertheless I will give it a chance.
The nature of it is that I won't be able to put the selections up in real time, because I need to monitor the pre-race market in the ten minutes leading up to the races. But here's what I'm trying to do:
I'm looking for a series of five or six horses, which the author calls a 'cycle', and the cycle is one part of a set. So, basically, today will be one cycle of five days (and therefore five cycles) this week. The full five cycles will be a set.
Based on the odds of the horses in the races, and their fluctuations prior to the races, I will either back or lay outright or for a place. I will only select one horse per race, and I am trying to get five winners (be they place lays, win only, or any of the other combinations).
I will start with a notional £100 and try to increase it through the five races in my cycle. If I achieve this, I will stop and take my profit.
The theory is that one winner in the set (i.e. the series of cycles this week) will pay for losing days. So, I'm certainly not expecting every day to be a winning day, and indeed I wonder if we will have any winning days.
Jason reckons that in a seven day set, if you're looking to get six in a row for a cycle, you should be able to consistently get two a week up. On that basis, between now and Friday I'm expecting at least one winning day in my quest for five up.
We'll see...
I'll post the results of Day One later this afternoon, as the cycle will be complete by around 3.30pm.
Nothing to get too excited about today at the races, though on the laying front I'll probably take on Sir Michael Stoute's unexposed Fourteenth at Windsor this evening. At 13/8 or thereabouts, he looks plenty short enough, based on achievement to date. There is likely more to come, but I reckon there are other improvers in here too, so will take my chance.
Good luck, and check back later for the results of day one with Betting Exchange Profits.
Matt
Labels: Betting Exchange Profits
posted by Matt at
11:13
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