Back In The Saddle...
Aah, its good to be back dear reader, its good to be back...
After trying my arm (with a degree of success that at least minimised losses) on US racing, its nice to find the familiar conformation of the Racing Post form guide to help me find winners and losers again.
For those of you not familiar with form study in the USA, its a completely different ball game to here in the UK. I will be sharing some of their interesting alternative interpretations of past performance with you over coming days and weeks.
For now though, suffice it to say that I'm certain that the fundamental constructs of US race analysis: class, pace and speed, can be applied successfully at least to all weather racing in this country, and possibly more widely. And I'll be looking to prove that in due course too.
Back to today, and the two big events are Newmarket's ongoing July meeting and Stage 5 of the Tour de France.
At Newmarket, the racing is as fiercely competitive as ever. Yesterday, there seemed to be a small preference towards middle to high numbers, so we'll use that to try to find a couple of winners.
Winker Watson looks a very smart horse, and followers of TrainerFlatStats know all about Peter Chapple-Hyam with his 2yo colts, as he was featured as one of the trainers to follow in a bonus product accompanying that. His record this season with his young boys is exceptional.
However, its worth noting that Chapple-Hyam's brilliant Turtle Island won the same Ascot race before being beaten here back in 1993 and, with an extra three pounds to lug here, the Winker doesn't look great value. Drawn in 1 may also be the worst of the draw so, while I stop short of laying him, I will certainly look elsewhere for the winner.
Swiss Franc is the most likely opponent, but he fares little better in the draw, having received the number 2 gate. Obviously, there's going to be plenty of pace on that side if the field splits, but I reckon its more likely that they will come over to the middle or the near side rail. That being the case, the top and bottom horses just mentioned will have to run an extra six or seven lengths to traverse the track.
Would you bet them giving up six lengths at 2/1 or 9/2 respectively? They could improve sufficiently for the extra furlong to do this, but it would be an indictment of the rest of the field in my book.
So, for me, as a value alternative, I'll plump for Spirit of Sharjah. Regular readers will suggest that this is a sentimentalist selection, as the horse is trained by Julia Feilden, trainer of my own (bit of) horse, Rapid City.
Sharjah is far and away the best 2yo Julia's had, and wasn't beaten far behind Winker Watson at Royal Ascot last time (eventually finished 3rd). He's bred to appreciate the extra furlong, is much better drawn in 8, and gets a 3lb pull for 1 1/4 lengths. If you buy into the theory of extra distance travelled for Winker to get across the course, then 9/1 about Julia's colt must be a decent each way wager.
He'll do for me. That said, one that could make all of these look like schoolboys against a college graduate is Paul Cole's River Proud. I have to concede to not being a fan of Cole, and to actually detesting Richard Quinn, the horse's pilot (I hold him responsible for the demise of the now resurgent HRA Cecil stable).
But this horse could, in the vernacular of racing, be anything. Dotting up by five lengths on debut in what looked a decent maiden even by Newbury standards, he apparently looked like a beastie before the race there. It wouldn't surprise me if this horse took the field apart but, at 7/2, there's a whole lot of improvement already factored into his price.
Elsewhere on the card, there are some impossible looking races, and I'll likely steer clear of most, but I can never resist a small each way tickle in insoluble handicaps, and the 2.35 is just that. 20 unexposed 3yo's over a mile and a quarter means the race may become something of a crapshoot. No matter!
Pipedreamer (what I may be, thinking I can find the winner in here) is more unexposed than most, and could easily make it a hat-trick of wins in this race, but at 5/1 is too short for a play in a race like this. I'm looking for double digits about my losing ticket(!), and the 10/1 about Bid For Glory will do for me. The horse improved to win his last race at a mile, is well berthed in 18, and should improve for the extra quarter mile here.
If trained by Stoute or Gosden, he'd be vying for favouritism, and Hugh Collingridge is no slacker in the handling department. Four places for each way punters means you'll get a bit more than your dough back if he makes the leading quartet.
On the laying side of things, one I definitely want to be against is Nimra in the 3.30 at Warwick. Topweight will only slow this already slow horse down still further and, though I have the utmost respect for the trainer, this probably isn't his finest placement of one of his charges. For all that, at around 6/1 to lay on betfair, he's too big a price for my tastes.
Elsewhere, Perfectperformance at 4/6 looks opposable in the 8.10 at Nottingham. There's only four runners, so every chance that the race will be tactical. If Tucker has a couple of lengths on the Godolphin jolly with a quarter mile to run, he can outrun the seasonal debutant to the line.
Indeed, Nakheel may well lead them in too, and is a second plausible threat to the underpriced and overbet favourite. I'll try to get Perfectperformance beaten.
Onto the Tour, and after a few easy to find stage winners in Cancellara (prologue), Boonen and Hushovd (sprint finishes), along with less easy to find winners in Staegmans (sprint beating team mate Boonen in both their home country, Belgium) and Cancellara again (brilliant opportunistic strike from excellent short distance rider), it gets considerably more difficult today.
After the flats of England and Belgium and, thus far, France too, the roads start to beckon the riders on an elevated plane for the first time today. Eight categorised climbs feature in a 120 mile slog (four Category 4's, three 3's and a 2 - luckily, the 1's and HC's (Horse Categorie, or Out of Category!) are yet to come!) from Chablis - where I'd be tempted to stay and drink their fine produce - to Autun, and it will not be a day for the sprinters.
Nor will it be a day for the main men in the Tour, as they will be keeping their powder dry for bigger fish to fry (how's that for a rhyming mixed metaphor?!).
No, today I suspect will see a breakaway winner, and possible a new yellow jersey wearer by end of day. On a day when there are any number of journeymen who will strive for the stage win that will justify their inclusion in the team, I'll go with a couple of old stagers and a new kid on the block.
Jens Voigt has been there, seen it, done it, and printed his own T-shirts in Tours de France, and he'll likely be to the fore of any breakways. He's currently 56th on the overall 'classement', behind by just 68 seconds. A decisive breakaway from him today and he could be the proud owner of not just a stage win but also the 'maillot jaune'.
The only question is whether that prize would mean more than a stage win. If that were the case, he could trade the stage victory for the coveted race leader jersey, and work with another rider. Nevertheless, he makes the shortlist.
Joining him is another tough as teak 'battleur', Sandy Casar. Himself only 1 minute 11 seconds off the pace, Casar is a frequent winner of the 'coeur de lion' (lion heart) shirt, awarded daily for the bravest, most aggressive rider. Where he gets his reserves from, I don't know (although I suspect its probably from a bottle of EPO...!), and he's definitely on the list.
Finally, and from the up and coming ranks, I'll throw in Phillipe Gilbert. The roads here are supposedly similar to his home region of the Walloon in Belgium. He's a proven single day race winner, and this course will ride like a single day road event.
The odds on these three warriors are: Voigt 14/1, Gilbert 29/1 and Casar 79/1 (all betfair), and for throwaway stakes these guys should give you an interest.
More later. Ciao for now.
Matt
After trying my arm (with a degree of success that at least minimised losses) on US racing, its nice to find the familiar conformation of the Racing Post form guide to help me find winners and losers again.
For those of you not familiar with form study in the USA, its a completely different ball game to here in the UK. I will be sharing some of their interesting alternative interpretations of past performance with you over coming days and weeks.
For now though, suffice it to say that I'm certain that the fundamental constructs of US race analysis: class, pace and speed, can be applied successfully at least to all weather racing in this country, and possibly more widely. And I'll be looking to prove that in due course too.
Back to today, and the two big events are Newmarket's ongoing July meeting and Stage 5 of the Tour de France.
At Newmarket, the racing is as fiercely competitive as ever. Yesterday, there seemed to be a small preference towards middle to high numbers, so we'll use that to try to find a couple of winners.
Winker Watson looks a very smart horse, and followers of TrainerFlatStats know all about Peter Chapple-Hyam with his 2yo colts, as he was featured as one of the trainers to follow in a bonus product accompanying that. His record this season with his young boys is exceptional.
However, its worth noting that Chapple-Hyam's brilliant Turtle Island won the same Ascot race before being beaten here back in 1993 and, with an extra three pounds to lug here, the Winker doesn't look great value. Drawn in 1 may also be the worst of the draw so, while I stop short of laying him, I will certainly look elsewhere for the winner.
Swiss Franc is the most likely opponent, but he fares little better in the draw, having received the number 2 gate. Obviously, there's going to be plenty of pace on that side if the field splits, but I reckon its more likely that they will come over to the middle or the near side rail. That being the case, the top and bottom horses just mentioned will have to run an extra six or seven lengths to traverse the track.
Would you bet them giving up six lengths at 2/1 or 9/2 respectively? They could improve sufficiently for the extra furlong to do this, but it would be an indictment of the rest of the field in my book.
So, for me, as a value alternative, I'll plump for Spirit of Sharjah. Regular readers will suggest that this is a sentimentalist selection, as the horse is trained by Julia Feilden, trainer of my own (bit of) horse, Rapid City.
Sharjah is far and away the best 2yo Julia's had, and wasn't beaten far behind Winker Watson at Royal Ascot last time (eventually finished 3rd). He's bred to appreciate the extra furlong, is much better drawn in 8, and gets a 3lb pull for 1 1/4 lengths. If you buy into the theory of extra distance travelled for Winker to get across the course, then 9/1 about Julia's colt must be a decent each way wager.
He'll do for me. That said, one that could make all of these look like schoolboys against a college graduate is Paul Cole's River Proud. I have to concede to not being a fan of Cole, and to actually detesting Richard Quinn, the horse's pilot (I hold him responsible for the demise of the now resurgent HRA Cecil stable).
But this horse could, in the vernacular of racing, be anything. Dotting up by five lengths on debut in what looked a decent maiden even by Newbury standards, he apparently looked like a beastie before the race there. It wouldn't surprise me if this horse took the field apart but, at 7/2, there's a whole lot of improvement already factored into his price.
Elsewhere on the card, there are some impossible looking races, and I'll likely steer clear of most, but I can never resist a small each way tickle in insoluble handicaps, and the 2.35 is just that. 20 unexposed 3yo's over a mile and a quarter means the race may become something of a crapshoot. No matter!
Pipedreamer (what I may be, thinking I can find the winner in here) is more unexposed than most, and could easily make it a hat-trick of wins in this race, but at 5/1 is too short for a play in a race like this. I'm looking for double digits about my losing ticket(!), and the 10/1 about Bid For Glory will do for me. The horse improved to win his last race at a mile, is well berthed in 18, and should improve for the extra quarter mile here.
If trained by Stoute or Gosden, he'd be vying for favouritism, and Hugh Collingridge is no slacker in the handling department. Four places for each way punters means you'll get a bit more than your dough back if he makes the leading quartet.
On the laying side of things, one I definitely want to be against is Nimra in the 3.30 at Warwick. Topweight will only slow this already slow horse down still further and, though I have the utmost respect for the trainer, this probably isn't his finest placement of one of his charges. For all that, at around 6/1 to lay on betfair, he's too big a price for my tastes.
Elsewhere, Perfectperformance at 4/6 looks opposable in the 8.10 at Nottingham. There's only four runners, so every chance that the race will be tactical. If Tucker has a couple of lengths on the Godolphin jolly with a quarter mile to run, he can outrun the seasonal debutant to the line.
Indeed, Nakheel may well lead them in too, and is a second plausible threat to the underpriced and overbet favourite. I'll try to get Perfectperformance beaten.
Onto the Tour, and after a few easy to find stage winners in Cancellara (prologue), Boonen and Hushovd (sprint finishes), along with less easy to find winners in Staegmans (sprint beating team mate Boonen in both their home country, Belgium) and Cancellara again (brilliant opportunistic strike from excellent short distance rider), it gets considerably more difficult today.
After the flats of England and Belgium and, thus far, France too, the roads start to beckon the riders on an elevated plane for the first time today. Eight categorised climbs feature in a 120 mile slog (four Category 4's, three 3's and a 2 - luckily, the 1's and HC's (Horse Categorie, or Out of Category!) are yet to come!) from Chablis - where I'd be tempted to stay and drink their fine produce - to Autun, and it will not be a day for the sprinters.
Nor will it be a day for the main men in the Tour, as they will be keeping their powder dry for bigger fish to fry (how's that for a rhyming mixed metaphor?!).
No, today I suspect will see a breakaway winner, and possible a new yellow jersey wearer by end of day. On a day when there are any number of journeymen who will strive for the stage win that will justify their inclusion in the team, I'll go with a couple of old stagers and a new kid on the block.
Jens Voigt has been there, seen it, done it, and printed his own T-shirts in Tours de France, and he'll likely be to the fore of any breakways. He's currently 56th on the overall 'classement', behind by just 68 seconds. A decisive breakaway from him today and he could be the proud owner of not just a stage win but also the 'maillot jaune'.
The only question is whether that prize would mean more than a stage win. If that were the case, he could trade the stage victory for the coveted race leader jersey, and work with another rider. Nevertheless, he makes the shortlist.
Joining him is another tough as teak 'battleur', Sandy Casar. Himself only 1 minute 11 seconds off the pace, Casar is a frequent winner of the 'coeur de lion' (lion heart) shirt, awarded daily for the bravest, most aggressive rider. Where he gets his reserves from, I don't know (although I suspect its probably from a bottle of EPO...!), and he's definitely on the list.
Finally, and from the up and coming ranks, I'll throw in Phillipe Gilbert. The roads here are supposedly similar to his home region of the Walloon in Belgium. He's a proven single day race winner, and this course will ride like a single day road event.
The odds on these three warriors are: Voigt 14/1, Gilbert 29/1 and Casar 79/1 (all betfair), and for throwaway stakes these guys should give you an interest.
More later. Ciao for now.
Matt
Labels: Tour De France
posted by Matt at
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