Monday Musing: If You Bet In Running, One Word.. Don't!
Welcome back to work, dear reader. For it is Monday again. To mark this most inauspicious and sobering of days, I thought I'd introduce a new 'occasional' post entitled, the Monday Musing.
This will normally be about something to avoid in the wonderful worlds of racing, football and betting, but I reserve the right to wander off topic from time to time, for no better reason than to vent my spleen about something which may be bugging me at the moment when digit touches keyboard.
To start things off on the right note, I will offer up a racing related Monday Musing.
It can be summed up as, "If you bet in-running on horse racing, you are almost certain to lose".
Let me explain...
I have a good friend (and gym partner) who for some time now has been trading on betfair. But his trading style differs from the average arbritrage player (for those who don't know, arbitrage is about backing a horse at a bigger price then laying it at shorter odds to guarantee a profit if it wins, and no down side if it doesn't).
Sure my nameless pal engages in arb's for bread and butter. But his jam comes from somewhere else.
Did you know that there is anything from 1.5 seconds and five seconds time lag between the live racing and 'live' racing pictures on the tv? (This is much more pronounced on the satellite channels, so if you typically watch only BBC / C4 racing, then you are less likely to be susceptible).
The delay between reality and the virtual reality of the TV pictures is enough for big stacks of cash to be won or lost.
Let me give you an example: the favourite at Uttoxeter is clear approaching the last, and there is £3000 to be layed at 1.07 on betfair. The favourite makes his first blunder all the way round the track, and comes down.
My friend, who works with a colleague at the track, lays the full £3000 with no liability. The horse is on the floor and cannot win. He knew about the stricken jolly a good three seconds before the unwitting 'money buyer' with a big burning hole in his pocket, who was lounging at home on his (soon to be repossessed) couch.
Another example is photo finishes. When the result is called on course, the savvy traders can back the horse that wins or lay the runner up, certain that they can't be beaten.
There are two exceptions to this case however. First, judges sometimes mistakenly call the wrong horse in the photo (especially if their name is Jane 'Inept' Stickles). Secondly, and more importantly, Betfair now send a man to the track to suspend betting as soon as he hears, "And here is the result of the photograph".
The lesson here is clear and stark: unless you're working in partnership with someone at the track, you are very likely to be donating your money to very shrewd traders if you bet in running.
You have been warned...
A footnote on the Derby. Great to see Frankie finally win, blah blah blah. Actually I don't much care about big name jocks winning big races. I'd have been happier if Frannie Norton or Royston ('The Boyston') Ffffffffrench had won.
Nevertheless, I like Frankie and you have to go a long way to find a jockey riding better for the last couple of seasons.
Rergarding the horse, Authorized, well I questioned his ability to win the race, based on the merit of his trial which proved nothing. As it turned out, we've rarely seen a more - forgive me - authoritative display. I'm not at all certain about the quality of the nags in behind, but the time was fast (4.5 seconds, or 22 lengths (!) quicker than the class 2 handicap that followed over the same trip).
Authorized looks well clear of his peers and may give the older generation something to think about in the big all age middle distance contests later in the season.
Which leads me to a quick final moan (for today at least): why is it that, by the 2nd day of June, barely two months into the turf flat season, we have already had four of the five Classics, with only the much maligned and lampooned (unfairly, in my opinion) St Leger to come?
Surely the Guineas races should be run at Royal Ascot, and the Derby and Oaks at somewhere like Glorious Goodwood or York. That would properly reflect a three year old animal maturing into his races, and give punters a fighting chance of finding the winner based on form (though of course Authorized was the form pick in the Derby).
I know this breaks from tradition etc, and even more so, I know it will NEVER happen. But am I the only one who thinks that there's a degree of preposterosity (made up word) about the main Classics being done and dusted before many of the best horses who will run this season are even out doing light canters?
Discuss...!
Pip pip!
Matt
This will normally be about something to avoid in the wonderful worlds of racing, football and betting, but I reserve the right to wander off topic from time to time, for no better reason than to vent my spleen about something which may be bugging me at the moment when digit touches keyboard.
To start things off on the right note, I will offer up a racing related Monday Musing.
It can be summed up as, "If you bet in-running on horse racing, you are almost certain to lose".
Let me explain...
I have a good friend (and gym partner) who for some time now has been trading on betfair. But his trading style differs from the average arbritrage player (for those who don't know, arbitrage is about backing a horse at a bigger price then laying it at shorter odds to guarantee a profit if it wins, and no down side if it doesn't).
Sure my nameless pal engages in arb's for bread and butter. But his jam comes from somewhere else.
Did you know that there is anything from 1.5 seconds and five seconds time lag between the live racing and 'live' racing pictures on the tv? (This is much more pronounced on the satellite channels, so if you typically watch only BBC / C4 racing, then you are less likely to be susceptible).
The delay between reality and the virtual reality of the TV pictures is enough for big stacks of cash to be won or lost.
Let me give you an example: the favourite at Uttoxeter is clear approaching the last, and there is £3000 to be layed at 1.07 on betfair. The favourite makes his first blunder all the way round the track, and comes down.
My friend, who works with a colleague at the track, lays the full £3000 with no liability. The horse is on the floor and cannot win. He knew about the stricken jolly a good three seconds before the unwitting 'money buyer' with a big burning hole in his pocket, who was lounging at home on his (soon to be repossessed) couch.
Another example is photo finishes. When the result is called on course, the savvy traders can back the horse that wins or lay the runner up, certain that they can't be beaten.
There are two exceptions to this case however. First, judges sometimes mistakenly call the wrong horse in the photo (especially if their name is Jane 'Inept' Stickles). Secondly, and more importantly, Betfair now send a man to the track to suspend betting as soon as he hears, "And here is the result of the photograph".
The lesson here is clear and stark: unless you're working in partnership with someone at the track, you are very likely to be donating your money to very shrewd traders if you bet in running.
You have been warned...
A footnote on the Derby. Great to see Frankie finally win, blah blah blah. Actually I don't much care about big name jocks winning big races. I'd have been happier if Frannie Norton or Royston ('The Boyston') Ffffffffrench had won.
Nevertheless, I like Frankie and you have to go a long way to find a jockey riding better for the last couple of seasons.
Rergarding the horse, Authorized, well I questioned his ability to win the race, based on the merit of his trial which proved nothing. As it turned out, we've rarely seen a more - forgive me - authoritative display. I'm not at all certain about the quality of the nags in behind, but the time was fast (4.5 seconds, or 22 lengths (!) quicker than the class 2 handicap that followed over the same trip).
Authorized looks well clear of his peers and may give the older generation something to think about in the big all age middle distance contests later in the season.
Which leads me to a quick final moan (for today at least): why is it that, by the 2nd day of June, barely two months into the turf flat season, we have already had four of the five Classics, with only the much maligned and lampooned (unfairly, in my opinion) St Leger to come?
Surely the Guineas races should be run at Royal Ascot, and the Derby and Oaks at somewhere like Glorious Goodwood or York. That would properly reflect a three year old animal maturing into his races, and give punters a fighting chance of finding the winner based on form (though of course Authorized was the form pick in the Derby).
I know this breaks from tradition etc, and even more so, I know it will NEVER happen. But am I the only one who thinks that there's a degree of preposterosity (made up word) about the main Classics being done and dusted before many of the best horses who will run this season are even out doing light canters?
Discuss...!
Pip pip!
Matt
Labels: Monday Musing
posted by Matt at
17:28
1 Comments:
excellent site keep up the good work thanks ,curious can you help me with jumps meetings and favorites,over the last 20years ,ie i remember in the 70s/80s 50% of favorites won 2 mile novice chases, i would like if possible you to research the jumps for us all races if not thank you anyway ,just a little end note again from my studying years ago 50% of all national hunt flat races again was won by favorite, something worth considering:O) thanks best wishes joe
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home