Epsom Derby Preview: I'm Not Sure I'm Authorized...
After the emotion of HRH Cecil (I know it should be HRA, but for one day only I'm elevating him to royal status) in the Oaks yesterday, its time for the more earthly colts' contest.
The card is highly competitive, as you'd expect, and it kicks off with a ten furlong handicap, contested by fourteen runners.
An interesting point from the first day is that of the five races run over ten furlongs or less, the winners were drawn: 6, 4, 1, 2, 1
So I'll be looking for low drawn horses on a track that traditionally favours this anyway.
In the 2.00, most of the key protagonists in the market are poorly drawn, which leaves us with just the Hannon pair, Duke of Tuscany and Fever, who bookend the weights.
The Duke, who is topweight and a habitual front runner, will have to be exceptionally tough to lug the weight from pole position, but may just do that. He's progressive and only has 3/4 of a length to find with Zaham from their running last time out.
At the foot of the weights, Fever is also progressive, and is on the hat-trick tomorrow, having won at Nottingham and Windsor over this trip, albeit in significantly lower grade. It wouldn't come as a surprise if he proved equal to the upgrade.
The second race is the Woodcote, a six furlong dash for two year olds. Again, the draw is key. Mister Hardy is unbeaten in two starts to date, is well drawn and - as a son of Kyllachy - will have no problems with conditions underfoot. He'll take some beating, but there are plenty of unexposed types here, and Bespoke Boy may just improve past him. A winner on his debut (the field strung out like something that's been exceptionally well strung out... erm..), he has plenty of scope and is a sporting suggestion in an open contest.
Incidentally, there are four sons of Acclamation doing battle in the Woodcote, which may constitute some sort fo record.
A disappointing field of five for the Diomed Stakes (numerically at least), and Frankie will be odds on to double up on Godolphin's Blue Ksar. But he's no value to me. The horse looks to have been well placed to win three on the bounce, and has never won a Group race before. The prolific Welsh Emperor, on the other hand, has two Listed races, a Group Three and a Group Two to his name and, though arguably a little long in the tooth at eight years, he looks a much more appealing proposition.
If Ordnance Row takes his chance in the race after finishing third from an impossible draw today, he might follow the selection home.
At 3.30, we will be asked to find the winner of a nineteen runner sprint handicap, known as the Vodafone Dash. This is the fastest five furlongs in the country, and I think I may have heard somewhere, the fastest in the world.
Many of the usual suspects line up, and - to be honest - I don't have the faintest clue which one will win. High numbers can be favoured here, so I'll attempt to use that to inform my (uninformed) choice...
Green Manalishi has the most weight and the highest draw, the former implying he's the best horse here.Just behind him in the weights is Bond City, a course and distance winner on good to soft for tomorrow's pilot, Frankie Dettori. He's drawn better than ok in 13, and we know he goes on the track and the ground. He's in decent form, if a slightly disappointing run at York last time can be forgiven.
I'll side with these against the field, but you pays your money and takes your choice here.
Before I give you my thoughts on the Derby, a quick word about the 'new and improved' Nag3 site. I've now got it pretty much up and running, and am interesting in your thoughts. I aim to make the site one of the best free horseracing resources on the net in due course, and your feedback is vital in that. Otherwise, you'll just get what I think you want..!
Have a look at www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk and please use the contact option to pass me your thoughts.
You'll find free systems (all researched, not just gut feel or old wives' tales), articles, a search facility so you can look for a particular subject in my blog archives, and of course some premium systems, which are performing well at the moment. I managed to lay Lady Sandicliffe (at odds on) and a couple of others at short prices today, and get them all beaten, using the Racing Secrets [Exposed] formula. The other system on those pages, TrainerFlatStats has had its last five qualifiers finish first or second, including a nice winner today at 4/1 (only runner).
You can find more info on all of the above by sniffing around the site. Enjoy!
Now back to the Derby...
Aidan O'Brien is going scattergun with no fewer than eight entrants. All are regally bred, but I think all are running more in hope than expectation of beating the likely odds on favourite, Authorized. Although the form shown to date by Peter Chapple-Hyam's colt appears to be the best, I reckon that the Irish raiders may just get their wish.
There are doubts in my mind about the merit of the form of his four length defeat of Raincoat. The only horse with good form in behind was Adagio, and he shaped like a blatant non-stayer, so I'm not convinced that we learnt anything more than he's still alive that day. Indeed, Passage of Time showed in the Oaks that the favourites here have very different challenges to face than in their prep races.
Contrarily, a number of the Irish raiders have been battle hardened in top races.
One of these is Eagle Mountain, who finished fifth in the 2000 Guineas. There is a doubt about his stamina, as there is about many of this field, but if he stays he'll be hard to keep out of the frame.
One who is almost certain to stay is the son of Kingmambo, Archipenko. He won the major Irish trial, the Derrinstown Stud Trial Stakes, a race won previously by High Chapparal, Galileo and Sinndar. I'm not suggesting that Archipenko is as good as those illustrious previous winners, but he's clearly good and maybe very good. He looks the best each way option, and is strongly fancied to reach the frame.
Of the English trial winners, Admiralofthefleet, Soldier of Fortune, and Aqaleen beat little between them and I'd be surprised and a little disappointed if any of this trio was good enough to lift the Blue Riband.
One at a price who is very unexposed and bred to stay is Mahler. Another of the O'Brien Octet, he looks a touch of each way tickle value at 40/1.
Another race over the same trip follows, this time a handicap and there is one at the bottom of the weights who looks an absolute standout. Leslingtaylor was progressive last season on the flat and, since then, has added a big handicap hurdle to his name (the Swinton). He won't want for fitness, comes from a savvy yard, and I reckon has a great chance of winning this en route to (slightly) better things.
Cape Secret may give him most to worry about.
If you're not p155ed or potless by this point, there is another impenetrable sprint handicap to finish with. David Nicholls has won the race four out of the last five years, and five of the last ten, and he runs a quartet this time.
The best drawn of his is Indian Trail, but he's done all his winning on good ground or faster. He also has three duck eggs next to his name this season. Nicholls' other three are all drawn in the car park and it will be a shock if one can win.
I'm an occasional fan of going on the Beaver Patrol (can I say that?! Its my blog, I can say what I like!), and last year's winner has struck lucky with the same trap five that he won from then. Coincidentally, he also wears the orange jacket of all good trap five hounds, and I expect him to make a bold bid to double up. The last five winners of the race were drawn 7, 2, 1, 3, 5, and the Beaver should not be inconvenienced by the ground (won mostly on good to firm, but also on good to soft).
For my final shocking pun in this installment, I take the Beaver to snatch victory...
Good luck to all.
Matt
The card is highly competitive, as you'd expect, and it kicks off with a ten furlong handicap, contested by fourteen runners.
An interesting point from the first day is that of the five races run over ten furlongs or less, the winners were drawn: 6, 4, 1, 2, 1
So I'll be looking for low drawn horses on a track that traditionally favours this anyway.
In the 2.00, most of the key protagonists in the market are poorly drawn, which leaves us with just the Hannon pair, Duke of Tuscany and Fever, who bookend the weights.
The Duke, who is topweight and a habitual front runner, will have to be exceptionally tough to lug the weight from pole position, but may just do that. He's progressive and only has 3/4 of a length to find with Zaham from their running last time out.
At the foot of the weights, Fever is also progressive, and is on the hat-trick tomorrow, having won at Nottingham and Windsor over this trip, albeit in significantly lower grade. It wouldn't come as a surprise if he proved equal to the upgrade.
The second race is the Woodcote, a six furlong dash for two year olds. Again, the draw is key. Mister Hardy is unbeaten in two starts to date, is well drawn and - as a son of Kyllachy - will have no problems with conditions underfoot. He'll take some beating, but there are plenty of unexposed types here, and Bespoke Boy may just improve past him. A winner on his debut (the field strung out like something that's been exceptionally well strung out... erm..), he has plenty of scope and is a sporting suggestion in an open contest.
Incidentally, there are four sons of Acclamation doing battle in the Woodcote, which may constitute some sort fo record.
A disappointing field of five for the Diomed Stakes (numerically at least), and Frankie will be odds on to double up on Godolphin's Blue Ksar. But he's no value to me. The horse looks to have been well placed to win three on the bounce, and has never won a Group race before. The prolific Welsh Emperor, on the other hand, has two Listed races, a Group Three and a Group Two to his name and, though arguably a little long in the tooth at eight years, he looks a much more appealing proposition.
If Ordnance Row takes his chance in the race after finishing third from an impossible draw today, he might follow the selection home.
At 3.30, we will be asked to find the winner of a nineteen runner sprint handicap, known as the Vodafone Dash. This is the fastest five furlongs in the country, and I think I may have heard somewhere, the fastest in the world.
Many of the usual suspects line up, and - to be honest - I don't have the faintest clue which one will win. High numbers can be favoured here, so I'll attempt to use that to inform my (uninformed) choice...
Green Manalishi has the most weight and the highest draw, the former implying he's the best horse here.Just behind him in the weights is Bond City, a course and distance winner on good to soft for tomorrow's pilot, Frankie Dettori. He's drawn better than ok in 13, and we know he goes on the track and the ground. He's in decent form, if a slightly disappointing run at York last time can be forgiven.
I'll side with these against the field, but you pays your money and takes your choice here.
Before I give you my thoughts on the Derby, a quick word about the 'new and improved' Nag3 site. I've now got it pretty much up and running, and am interesting in your thoughts. I aim to make the site one of the best free horseracing resources on the net in due course, and your feedback is vital in that. Otherwise, you'll just get what I think you want..!
Have a look at www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk and please use the contact option to pass me your thoughts.
You'll find free systems (all researched, not just gut feel or old wives' tales), articles, a search facility so you can look for a particular subject in my blog archives, and of course some premium systems, which are performing well at the moment. I managed to lay Lady Sandicliffe (at odds on) and a couple of others at short prices today, and get them all beaten, using the Racing Secrets [Exposed] formula. The other system on those pages, TrainerFlatStats has had its last five qualifiers finish first or second, including a nice winner today at 4/1 (only runner).
You can find more info on all of the above by sniffing around the site. Enjoy!
Now back to the Derby...
Aidan O'Brien is going scattergun with no fewer than eight entrants. All are regally bred, but I think all are running more in hope than expectation of beating the likely odds on favourite, Authorized. Although the form shown to date by Peter Chapple-Hyam's colt appears to be the best, I reckon that the Irish raiders may just get their wish.
There are doubts in my mind about the merit of the form of his four length defeat of Raincoat. The only horse with good form in behind was Adagio, and he shaped like a blatant non-stayer, so I'm not convinced that we learnt anything more than he's still alive that day. Indeed, Passage of Time showed in the Oaks that the favourites here have very different challenges to face than in their prep races.
Contrarily, a number of the Irish raiders have been battle hardened in top races.
One of these is Eagle Mountain, who finished fifth in the 2000 Guineas. There is a doubt about his stamina, as there is about many of this field, but if he stays he'll be hard to keep out of the frame.
One who is almost certain to stay is the son of Kingmambo, Archipenko. He won the major Irish trial, the Derrinstown Stud Trial Stakes, a race won previously by High Chapparal, Galileo and Sinndar. I'm not suggesting that Archipenko is as good as those illustrious previous winners, but he's clearly good and maybe very good. He looks the best each way option, and is strongly fancied to reach the frame.
Of the English trial winners, Admiralofthefleet, Soldier of Fortune, and Aqaleen beat little between them and I'd be surprised and a little disappointed if any of this trio was good enough to lift the Blue Riband.
One at a price who is very unexposed and bred to stay is Mahler. Another of the O'Brien Octet, he looks a touch of each way tickle value at 40/1.
Another race over the same trip follows, this time a handicap and there is one at the bottom of the weights who looks an absolute standout. Leslingtaylor was progressive last season on the flat and, since then, has added a big handicap hurdle to his name (the Swinton). He won't want for fitness, comes from a savvy yard, and I reckon has a great chance of winning this en route to (slightly) better things.
Cape Secret may give him most to worry about.
If you're not p155ed or potless by this point, there is another impenetrable sprint handicap to finish with. David Nicholls has won the race four out of the last five years, and five of the last ten, and he runs a quartet this time.
The best drawn of his is Indian Trail, but he's done all his winning on good ground or faster. He also has three duck eggs next to his name this season. Nicholls' other three are all drawn in the car park and it will be a shock if one can win.
I'm an occasional fan of going on the Beaver Patrol (can I say that?! Its my blog, I can say what I like!), and last year's winner has struck lucky with the same trap five that he won from then. Coincidentally, he also wears the orange jacket of all good trap five hounds, and I expect him to make a bold bid to double up. The last five winners of the race were drawn 7, 2, 1, 3, 5, and the Beaver should not be inconvenienced by the ground (won mostly on good to firm, but also on good to soft).
For my final shocking pun in this installment, I take the Beaver to snatch victory...
Good luck to all.
Matt
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posted by Matt at
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