And A Dollop Of Jam...
Good morning all, and welcome to Wednesday. By the time you leave work tonight, you'll be nearer the end of the week than the beginning. :)
Your humble scribe is somewhat bleary-eyed as he writes this, after another bout of that pesky insomnia (been up since 4.30am!). I need to drink more - don't seem to have problems sleeping then..!
Well, yesterday was a good day that could have been a great day. The back selection, Smile For Us, failed by only half a length to make us smile at 12/1. Still, a small each way wager saw its place part cashed around 3/1.
The winner, Vegas Boys, is due to go up in the weights by the best part of a stone in the next few days, but I wouldn't bank on that stopping him. He wasn't best drawn here, and took what can only be described as a circuitous route to get to the rail. When daylight came, he didn't need a second invitation and catapulted clear to win cosily, and pretty much on the bridle. He's got two entries on Friday (Goodwood and Brighton), so we might stake the chips (geddit, stake and chips? Oh, please yourself) on the Vegas Boys again.
The horse that beat him last time out, Osiris Way, is also one to watch for. He's not currently entered up, but is on a hattrick himself and will take some catching.
The lay selection is still running... Newtonian was rightly nominated as a horse to struggle with a pedestrian gallop. And so it proved as the 5/2 joint favourite finished plum last, beaten 31 lengths! Cherry on the top was that I also mentioned, and backed, Mahmjra as the likely winner (took 4/1, returned 5/2).
So a good day indeed.
I have to say that whilst I wasn't specifically following the Racing Secrets [Exposed] methodology, a couple of the system elements have found their way into my lay assessment process and I find them really useful.
The pick of these is a very easy way of establshing the relative ability of a horse, in order to determine whether to lay it or not. I can't divulge this for obvious reasons, but suffice it to say that when you see it, its a 'no brainer'.
To today, and first, an interesting point I noted from the Racing Post. Peter Chapple-Hyam is having an awesome campaign, spearheaded naturally by Authorized, his Derby winner.
But TrainerFlatStats punters were already expecting great things of 'The Tubby One', as he is flagged up as one of the 'Six of the Best Trainers To Follow' this season, specifically with his two year old colts outside of handicap company. The nursery handicaps have yet to start, so basically we're just tracking his young boys.
To date, four have run, one twice. From those five starts, there have been three wins, and two placed efforts. Given that the winners were 5/1, 9/2 and 9/4, and the seconds were at 5/1 and 11/8, that's pretty impressive.
The 'Trainers to Follow' is just one of four bonus guides that accompany TrainerFlatStats, all of which are designed to help you optimize your betting experience.
To Wednesday's fare, and I like one in the 8.40 at Kempton. At face value, this looks a fiendishly difficult race. And it probably is. But the reason I like the race is because the market seems to have been framed around two horses, when there are any number in with a chance.
Favourite is likely to be Sir Mark Prescott's improving colt, Tilapia. Although he's won on this surface at Lingfield, his recent winning has been on the softer stuff at Southwell. He is in good heart but, off top weight, I reluctantly pass him over. (Regular readers will know how dangerous this is - simply following Prescott blindly in handicaps with runners at less than 14/1 would have earnt you a profit every year for the last five years!)
The other hype horse in the race, who I suspect will drift in the betting, is Marcus Tregoning's Sea Land. He followed up a debut second at Lingfield, with a facile win over the same seven furlongs in weak maiden company. The ratings suggest he didn't improve from the first run to the second (didn't need to in fairness), and he's been off the track for three months too. This is a warm race, and with the question marks I'd want around 7 or 8/1 before taking a chance with this one.
So where will the Bisogno shilling fall today?
I liked Pat Eddery as a jockey, and I'm beginning to like him as a trainer. He and Walter Swinburn have made promising starts to their respective training careers, albeit supported by some fairly wealthy owners, as well as canny employment of racing syndicates.
And its Eddery's syndicate horse, Alfresco, who could see us dining out tonight. On first glance, form figures of 13-10-6-2-1-1-9-7 look a bit of a mixed bag. But if you concentrate only on the dirt numbers, this becomes a much more interesting and consistent 6-2-1-1. That quartet of runs was at Leafy (that's Lingfield to you), and the surface here is pretty well aligned.
The one thing with this horse is he needs to be produced late, as he's a bit of a dosser. Expect him to travel like a dream off what should be a pretty fast pace, before Jimmy Fortune (a good strong jockey) starts battering him in the last 330 yards.
I reckon he has a very solid each way chance, and I'll be having a little tickle win and place.
For a lay, I'm not keen on Cedar Mountain in another hot race, but will let him go as a) he's from John Gosden's yard, who I always get wrong, and b) he's a potential big improver.
Lord Deevert also looks pretty opposable at Lingfield in what is an appalling contest to start the card there. Gizmondo has the proverbial mountain to climb in the last as well, in my book at least.
But I'll be ignoring all these, instead taking on the geriatric plodder, Mighty Fine. Although he's on the hattrick and is an impressive six from twelve at Sedgefield, its a competitive seller (if that's not an oxymoron!), and he's giving half a stone plus all round, even allowing for his conditional jockey's claim.
Finding one to beat him is tough, but of course I don't need to, as I have fifteen running for me! At around 2/1, he'll do for me as the one not to be on.
Good luck to you with your Wednesday wagers.
Matt
p.s. If you don't already get notified when a new post appears on this blog, you can get automatic prompts by sending a blank email to nag@getresponse.com
Your humble scribe is somewhat bleary-eyed as he writes this, after another bout of that pesky insomnia (been up since 4.30am!). I need to drink more - don't seem to have problems sleeping then..!
Well, yesterday was a good day that could have been a great day. The back selection, Smile For Us, failed by only half a length to make us smile at 12/1. Still, a small each way wager saw its place part cashed around 3/1.
The winner, Vegas Boys, is due to go up in the weights by the best part of a stone in the next few days, but I wouldn't bank on that stopping him. He wasn't best drawn here, and took what can only be described as a circuitous route to get to the rail. When daylight came, he didn't need a second invitation and catapulted clear to win cosily, and pretty much on the bridle. He's got two entries on Friday (Goodwood and Brighton), so we might stake the chips (geddit, stake and chips? Oh, please yourself) on the Vegas Boys again.
The horse that beat him last time out, Osiris Way, is also one to watch for. He's not currently entered up, but is on a hattrick himself and will take some catching.
The lay selection is still running... Newtonian was rightly nominated as a horse to struggle with a pedestrian gallop. And so it proved as the 5/2 joint favourite finished plum last, beaten 31 lengths! Cherry on the top was that I also mentioned, and backed, Mahmjra as the likely winner (took 4/1, returned 5/2).
So a good day indeed.
I have to say that whilst I wasn't specifically following the Racing Secrets [Exposed] methodology, a couple of the system elements have found their way into my lay assessment process and I find them really useful.
The pick of these is a very easy way of establshing the relative ability of a horse, in order to determine whether to lay it or not. I can't divulge this for obvious reasons, but suffice it to say that when you see it, its a 'no brainer'.
To today, and first, an interesting point I noted from the Racing Post. Peter Chapple-Hyam is having an awesome campaign, spearheaded naturally by Authorized, his Derby winner.
But TrainerFlatStats punters were already expecting great things of 'The Tubby One', as he is flagged up as one of the 'Six of the Best Trainers To Follow' this season, specifically with his two year old colts outside of handicap company. The nursery handicaps have yet to start, so basically we're just tracking his young boys.
To date, four have run, one twice. From those five starts, there have been three wins, and two placed efforts. Given that the winners were 5/1, 9/2 and 9/4, and the seconds were at 5/1 and 11/8, that's pretty impressive.
The 'Trainers to Follow' is just one of four bonus guides that accompany TrainerFlatStats, all of which are designed to help you optimize your betting experience.
To Wednesday's fare, and I like one in the 8.40 at Kempton. At face value, this looks a fiendishly difficult race. And it probably is. But the reason I like the race is because the market seems to have been framed around two horses, when there are any number in with a chance.
Favourite is likely to be Sir Mark Prescott's improving colt, Tilapia. Although he's won on this surface at Lingfield, his recent winning has been on the softer stuff at Southwell. He is in good heart but, off top weight, I reluctantly pass him over. (Regular readers will know how dangerous this is - simply following Prescott blindly in handicaps with runners at less than 14/1 would have earnt you a profit every year for the last five years!)
The other hype horse in the race, who I suspect will drift in the betting, is Marcus Tregoning's Sea Land. He followed up a debut second at Lingfield, with a facile win over the same seven furlongs in weak maiden company. The ratings suggest he didn't improve from the first run to the second (didn't need to in fairness), and he's been off the track for three months too. This is a warm race, and with the question marks I'd want around 7 or 8/1 before taking a chance with this one.
So where will the Bisogno shilling fall today?
I liked Pat Eddery as a jockey, and I'm beginning to like him as a trainer. He and Walter Swinburn have made promising starts to their respective training careers, albeit supported by some fairly wealthy owners, as well as canny employment of racing syndicates.
And its Eddery's syndicate horse, Alfresco, who could see us dining out tonight. On first glance, form figures of 13-10-6-2-1-1-9-7 look a bit of a mixed bag. But if you concentrate only on the dirt numbers, this becomes a much more interesting and consistent 6-2-1-1. That quartet of runs was at Leafy (that's Lingfield to you), and the surface here is pretty well aligned.
The one thing with this horse is he needs to be produced late, as he's a bit of a dosser. Expect him to travel like a dream off what should be a pretty fast pace, before Jimmy Fortune (a good strong jockey) starts battering him in the last 330 yards.
I reckon he has a very solid each way chance, and I'll be having a little tickle win and place.
For a lay, I'm not keen on Cedar Mountain in another hot race, but will let him go as a) he's from John Gosden's yard, who I always get wrong, and b) he's a potential big improver.
Lord Deevert also looks pretty opposable at Lingfield in what is an appalling contest to start the card there. Gizmondo has the proverbial mountain to climb in the last as well, in my book at least.
But I'll be ignoring all these, instead taking on the geriatric plodder, Mighty Fine. Although he's on the hattrick and is an impressive six from twelve at Sedgefield, its a competitive seller (if that's not an oxymoron!), and he's giving half a stone plus all round, even allowing for his conditional jockey's claim.
Finding one to beat him is tough, but of course I don't need to, as I have fifteen running for me! At around 2/1, he'll do for me as the one not to be on.
Good luck to you with your Wednesday wagers.
Matt
p.s. If you don't already get notified when a new post appears on this blog, you can get automatic prompts by sending a blank email to nag@getresponse.com
posted by Matt at
06:01
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