3 From 4 Beaten: Bank Vault Report Strikes Again
A two part post today, dear reader. In this post, we'll review yesterday's action before posting today's thoughts and, of course, the Bank Vault Report selections, later.
Yesterday, our first selection, Birkside, was a non-runner, meaning that the first horse we laid was Thinking Positive. He was always well held in second, and never looked like winning.
So, again, the first horse in the sequence was beaten, meaning we now have a profit of £60 on the week, with a maximum liability of £27 (for yesterday's 2.7 favourite).
I sincerely hope that we will have the first horse win once this week, so that I can illustrate the progressive nature of the staking plan!
Incidentally, in terms of confidence factors, two of the other three horses were also beaten, meaning that this week we've got eleven out of fifteen lays correct to date. As I mentioned previously, this gives me a little more comfort that if the first horse does actually win, one (or more) of the animals we've loaded up behind it, will get turned over.
Today's selections will follow later.
As for my backing choices yesterday, well it was a mixed bag. Flying Bantam won nicely, as suggested, at 9/2, which was generous in my opinion. From the highest draw, he was always handy and charged through a split a furlong out. The first four home were drawn 14, 13, 11 and 10 out of 14 runners (and the horse drawn 12 was a non-runner!). The forecast paid £103.02 and the tricast over £500!
Unfortunately for me, I decided to adopt the 'perm high numbers' strategy on the 5 furlong sprint rather than the 7 furlong contest. Bugger! Confoundingly, the winner of this contest was drawn in trap 1!
Trap 1 also won the five furlong race here at the last meeting, and I am certain that the ground staff have done something to the drainage on that part of the track. (The only part the five furlong stretch shares with the other distances is the last furlong and a half or so). The only consistent observation from the two sprint races is that middle draws were clearly unfavoured. The last three home were drawn 7,8,9 of 15.
For now then, we will definitely be avoiding draw biases on the 5f course.
So Beverley yesterday was a case of 'great call, wrong race'!
Onwards and downwards... More later, including today's Bank Vault Report lays, and maybe some more of my own crackpot racing theories. M
Yesterday, our first selection, Birkside, was a non-runner, meaning that the first horse we laid was Thinking Positive. He was always well held in second, and never looked like winning.
So, again, the first horse in the sequence was beaten, meaning we now have a profit of £60 on the week, with a maximum liability of £27 (for yesterday's 2.7 favourite).
I sincerely hope that we will have the first horse win once this week, so that I can illustrate the progressive nature of the staking plan!
Incidentally, in terms of confidence factors, two of the other three horses were also beaten, meaning that this week we've got eleven out of fifteen lays correct to date. As I mentioned previously, this gives me a little more comfort that if the first horse does actually win, one (or more) of the animals we've loaded up behind it, will get turned over.
Today's selections will follow later.
As for my backing choices yesterday, well it was a mixed bag. Flying Bantam won nicely, as suggested, at 9/2, which was generous in my opinion. From the highest draw, he was always handy and charged through a split a furlong out. The first four home were drawn 14, 13, 11 and 10 out of 14 runners (and the horse drawn 12 was a non-runner!). The forecast paid £103.02 and the tricast over £500!
Unfortunately for me, I decided to adopt the 'perm high numbers' strategy on the 5 furlong sprint rather than the 7 furlong contest. Bugger! Confoundingly, the winner of this contest was drawn in trap 1!
Trap 1 also won the five furlong race here at the last meeting, and I am certain that the ground staff have done something to the drainage on that part of the track. (The only part the five furlong stretch shares with the other distances is the last furlong and a half or so). The only consistent observation from the two sprint races is that middle draws were clearly unfavoured. The last three home were drawn 7,8,9 of 15.
For now then, we will definitely be avoiding draw biases on the 5f course.
So Beverley yesterday was a case of 'great call, wrong race'!
Onwards and downwards... More later, including today's Bank Vault Report lays, and maybe some more of my own crackpot racing theories. M
Labels: Bank Vault Report, Laying, Systems
posted by Matt at
08:22
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