York Day 2 Preview: More Of The Same Please!
Winners, dear reader, that's what we're after. We're not so fussed for the Fancy Dan editorial that surrounds it (though we don't mind it), but give us the winners...
Alas, I can only partially sate your desire for winners without words. You see, the trade on this little ethereal pitch of mine is that I put forward what are hopefully enlightened thoughts, breeding enlightened selections, and in return I get to bluster and pontificate to my heart's content. Well, perhaps not to my heart's content, but at least a fair bit. Deal? I hope so...
If you're still there, lets proceed - non-stop - to the sunny side of the (punting) street... (with apologies to the late, great Mr Sinatra).
Yesterday started badly, but got better and then better again. I laid Emirates Skyline for a place for a decent sum in the opener, only to see the horse cruise into a favoured rail position (from a carpark draw), travel like a Group horse throughout, and win well. He is clearly a better sort than these, and is also indicative that Godolphin are back in business. Look out for everything the boys in blue run in the next month or so.
My each way selections in the race are still running, though Spell Casting showed a modicum of promise. Blue Spinnaker has put together a hat-trick of stinkers now, and is on the dodge list.
Second race, and Shmookh, the nap of the day, did it nicely. He was also a TrainerFlatStats qualifier (one of two on the day), and landed some nice bets at 4/1. This made for a winning day for me, irrespective of what followed.
Next up was the Musidora, Oaks trial race. Sir Henry's flying filly did enough, winning despite the nature of the race and not because of it. The time was pedestrian (10 lengths slower than the handicap), and the proximity of the rag Bobansheil to the protagonists until the furlong pole suggests that one shouldn't interpret this race literally. That said, Passage Of Time cruised to the front, dossed, then picked up again when challenged.
On the basis of the evidence to date, she wins the Oaks. (Unless AP O'Brien has any ammo up his sleeve..) Personally, I'll hold off backing her until the day, as at 5/2 she's unlikely to be much shorter, and there have been a few nagging issuettes with her preparation. When she's confirmed as fit and well, and running on the day, I'll be stepping up with a hefty wager I suspect.
Next up was a Grand Old renewal of the Duke Of York Stakes (geddit?!), with some very interesting contenders, fronted by Amadeus Wolf, Al Qasi and Soldier's Tale. The first named won, and won well. Al Qasi was beaten just over two and a half lengths back in sixth, a promising seasonal debut.
But the one to take out of the race for me, was definitely Soldier's Tale. Having his first run since July 2005, he looked fit. But lack of race sharpness saw him outpaced early, before munching up the turf in the latter part of the race to finish a never nearer third (beaten two lengths). He clearly retains the ability, and is a bigger stronger animal now than when last seen.
Soldier's Tale favours soft ground and, wherever he gets those underhoof conditions, don't look elsewhere for the winner. The Prix de l'Abbaye, though a 5f contest, might be worth chancing in due course, but there'll be other opportunities between now and then over a sodden six.
Onwards and downwards, as it was after the previous two classy contests, and York without the Easterby's is like crumble without custard, Fred without Ginger and, er, tips without verbiage...
So it was that Tim Easterby's Tcherina won the handicap at 11/2, rewarding my e/w tickle. Better news still was that Forroger - who I'd laid at a measly 1.85 for a place - was never able to get competitive from a poor draw. Although Emirates overcame his draw in the opener, its definitely worth favouring low drawn horses on the round course here.
The 2yo race was impossible, and the only word here goes to unlucky punters who backed Just Sort It. Sent off at 4/1, he'd got upset in the gate and his head had come out underneath the front of the stall. Video evidence showed one of the stalls handlers actually kick him in the head! He should never have run, and you were mugged if you backed this one.
Finally, and if winners at 4/1, 11/2, 5/6 and an odds on winning lay were not enough, I managed to pick out Spice Route and Woodcraft in the 'nightcap', the former winning at 6/1 (easily) and the latter finishing a decent 4th (out of the e/w places alas) at 10/1.
If further evidence of the draw was needed (it wasn't!!!), the first seven home out of 14 runners were drawn:
1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 7
The well backed 5/1 favourite and TFS qualifier, Mutadarrej, had no chance from the 11 box and finished... 11th.
To today, and I've already exhausted my rambling rations in yesterday's preview. I have to concede to not having as much confidence around today's card. Nevertheless, here are my thoughts:
1.45 Tournedos (e/w) is with the right yard now (Dandy Nicholls) and has been better class than most of these. He's drawn up the middle (a positive), has Richard Hughes in the plate, and could run a nice race.
Kay Two is also in fine form.
2.15 I'm not very good at understanding women (I'm a man after all!), but I do like desserts. For these reasons, I will pass up the opportunity to bet Anna Pavlova. She has the best form, loves the ground and will likely win. Just not with my cash. Echelon is the obvious danger.
2.45 Authorized heads the betting for what looks like being a Donkey Derby at Epsom this year, at least on the evidence to date. He has his seasonal debut in today's Dante, but I'll take a chance with Sir Michael Stoute's Adagio. Although not obviously bred for this trip, his running in the 2000 Guineas was too bad to be true, and that race form is perceived to be rock solid by savvier judges than me. Lacking nothing in fitness, that may just give him the edge on Authorized.
As far as Epsom goes, it really doesn't look a strong race, and a taking performance from Peter Chapple-Hyam's colt would make him a pretty warm jolly for 2nd June. Anything else, and we're likely to be seeing 5/1 the field for the Blue Riband.
3.15 Wise Dennis won the big race last Saturday, and is in excellent form. However, that race may have left a mark and he is drawn wide, so I reckon he's a good place lay. Against him for win or each way purposes, I'll side with Zero Tolerance.
He's got two duck eggs against his name for the season, but loves it here, loves it soft, has a low draw, and Jamie Spencer in the plate. (I've said some very unkind things about Spencer over the years, especially for his riding in Breeders' Cups, but currently he is riding as well as anyone around, so credit where it's due).
3.50 No bet race for me. However, the most appropriately named is Mission Impossible, who also has the benefit of a run (so important in early season juvenile races), and is drawn near enough to the centre. Not for my cash, but he should give you a run in a very tough race to quantify.
4.25 Now here's a funny thing. Four out of the last seven winners of this two and a quarter mile race were drawn in the highest fifth of the stalls. Possibly coincidence on the basis of such a flimsy sample size, but I'll use that to inform my (tentative) selection here. Great As Gold, Dehdaah and At The Money look interesting, and I'd suggest a little on each. They are all drawn high, have all won over a distance, and have all won on softer than good.
5.00 Another wide open race, but there's no way I'm going to desert Sir Henry. He runs the in form Power Of Future. Dangers abound and possibly most worrying is Gala Evening.
Quick word on the football, and hallelujah, if there wasn't a home win last night for West Brom, ensuring their trip to Wembley where they'll face Derby County. Might as well have played it at Villa Park if you ask me!
Tonight sees my great white hope Bristol Rovers take on Lincoln City. In what I hope will be an attritional game, I'll not be betting. I'm already on Rovers to win the League Two playoff, and am looking for a 0-0 score tonight. That said, if the West Country boys can score one, it will make life very difficult for the Imps. All to play for.
Good luck today - more tomorrow.
Matt
Alas, I can only partially sate your desire for winners without words. You see, the trade on this little ethereal pitch of mine is that I put forward what are hopefully enlightened thoughts, breeding enlightened selections, and in return I get to bluster and pontificate to my heart's content. Well, perhaps not to my heart's content, but at least a fair bit. Deal? I hope so...
If you're still there, lets proceed - non-stop - to the sunny side of the (punting) street... (with apologies to the late, great Mr Sinatra).
Yesterday started badly, but got better and then better again. I laid Emirates Skyline for a place for a decent sum in the opener, only to see the horse cruise into a favoured rail position (from a carpark draw), travel like a Group horse throughout, and win well. He is clearly a better sort than these, and is also indicative that Godolphin are back in business. Look out for everything the boys in blue run in the next month or so.
My each way selections in the race are still running, though Spell Casting showed a modicum of promise. Blue Spinnaker has put together a hat-trick of stinkers now, and is on the dodge list.
Second race, and Shmookh, the nap of the day, did it nicely. He was also a TrainerFlatStats qualifier (one of two on the day), and landed some nice bets at 4/1. This made for a winning day for me, irrespective of what followed.
Next up was the Musidora, Oaks trial race. Sir Henry's flying filly did enough, winning despite the nature of the race and not because of it. The time was pedestrian (10 lengths slower than the handicap), and the proximity of the rag Bobansheil to the protagonists until the furlong pole suggests that one shouldn't interpret this race literally. That said, Passage Of Time cruised to the front, dossed, then picked up again when challenged.
On the basis of the evidence to date, she wins the Oaks. (Unless AP O'Brien has any ammo up his sleeve..) Personally, I'll hold off backing her until the day, as at 5/2 she's unlikely to be much shorter, and there have been a few nagging issuettes with her preparation. When she's confirmed as fit and well, and running on the day, I'll be stepping up with a hefty wager I suspect.
Next up was a Grand Old renewal of the Duke Of York Stakes (geddit?!), with some very interesting contenders, fronted by Amadeus Wolf, Al Qasi and Soldier's Tale. The first named won, and won well. Al Qasi was beaten just over two and a half lengths back in sixth, a promising seasonal debut.
But the one to take out of the race for me, was definitely Soldier's Tale. Having his first run since July 2005, he looked fit. But lack of race sharpness saw him outpaced early, before munching up the turf in the latter part of the race to finish a never nearer third (beaten two lengths). He clearly retains the ability, and is a bigger stronger animal now than when last seen.
Soldier's Tale favours soft ground and, wherever he gets those underhoof conditions, don't look elsewhere for the winner. The Prix de l'Abbaye, though a 5f contest, might be worth chancing in due course, but there'll be other opportunities between now and then over a sodden six.
Onwards and downwards, as it was after the previous two classy contests, and York without the Easterby's is like crumble without custard, Fred without Ginger and, er, tips without verbiage...
So it was that Tim Easterby's Tcherina won the handicap at 11/2, rewarding my e/w tickle. Better news still was that Forroger - who I'd laid at a measly 1.85 for a place - was never able to get competitive from a poor draw. Although Emirates overcame his draw in the opener, its definitely worth favouring low drawn horses on the round course here.
The 2yo race was impossible, and the only word here goes to unlucky punters who backed Just Sort It. Sent off at 4/1, he'd got upset in the gate and his head had come out underneath the front of the stall. Video evidence showed one of the stalls handlers actually kick him in the head! He should never have run, and you were mugged if you backed this one.
Finally, and if winners at 4/1, 11/2, 5/6 and an odds on winning lay were not enough, I managed to pick out Spice Route and Woodcraft in the 'nightcap', the former winning at 6/1 (easily) and the latter finishing a decent 4th (out of the e/w places alas) at 10/1.
If further evidence of the draw was needed (it wasn't!!!), the first seven home out of 14 runners were drawn:
1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 8, 7
The well backed 5/1 favourite and TFS qualifier, Mutadarrej, had no chance from the 11 box and finished... 11th.
To today, and I've already exhausted my rambling rations in yesterday's preview. I have to concede to not having as much confidence around today's card. Nevertheless, here are my thoughts:
1.45 Tournedos (e/w) is with the right yard now (Dandy Nicholls) and has been better class than most of these. He's drawn up the middle (a positive), has Richard Hughes in the plate, and could run a nice race.
Kay Two is also in fine form.
2.15 I'm not very good at understanding women (I'm a man after all!), but I do like desserts. For these reasons, I will pass up the opportunity to bet Anna Pavlova. She has the best form, loves the ground and will likely win. Just not with my cash. Echelon is the obvious danger.
2.45 Authorized heads the betting for what looks like being a Donkey Derby at Epsom this year, at least on the evidence to date. He has his seasonal debut in today's Dante, but I'll take a chance with Sir Michael Stoute's Adagio. Although not obviously bred for this trip, his running in the 2000 Guineas was too bad to be true, and that race form is perceived to be rock solid by savvier judges than me. Lacking nothing in fitness, that may just give him the edge on Authorized.
As far as Epsom goes, it really doesn't look a strong race, and a taking performance from Peter Chapple-Hyam's colt would make him a pretty warm jolly for 2nd June. Anything else, and we're likely to be seeing 5/1 the field for the Blue Riband.
3.15 Wise Dennis won the big race last Saturday, and is in excellent form. However, that race may have left a mark and he is drawn wide, so I reckon he's a good place lay. Against him for win or each way purposes, I'll side with Zero Tolerance.
He's got two duck eggs against his name for the season, but loves it here, loves it soft, has a low draw, and Jamie Spencer in the plate. (I've said some very unkind things about Spencer over the years, especially for his riding in Breeders' Cups, but currently he is riding as well as anyone around, so credit where it's due).
3.50 No bet race for me. However, the most appropriately named is Mission Impossible, who also has the benefit of a run (so important in early season juvenile races), and is drawn near enough to the centre. Not for my cash, but he should give you a run in a very tough race to quantify.
4.25 Now here's a funny thing. Four out of the last seven winners of this two and a quarter mile race were drawn in the highest fifth of the stalls. Possibly coincidence on the basis of such a flimsy sample size, but I'll use that to inform my (tentative) selection here. Great As Gold, Dehdaah and At The Money look interesting, and I'd suggest a little on each. They are all drawn high, have all won over a distance, and have all won on softer than good.
5.00 Another wide open race, but there's no way I'm going to desert Sir Henry. He runs the in form Power Of Future. Dangers abound and possibly most worrying is Gala Evening.
Quick word on the football, and hallelujah, if there wasn't a home win last night for West Brom, ensuring their trip to Wembley where they'll face Derby County. Might as well have played it at Villa Park if you ask me!
Tonight sees my great white hope Bristol Rovers take on Lincoln City. In what I hope will be an attritional game, I'll not be betting. I'm already on Rovers to win the League Two playoff, and am looking for a 0-0 score tonight. That said, if the West Country boys can score one, it will make life very difficult for the Imps. All to play for.
Good luck today - more tomorrow.
Matt
Labels: Flat Racing
posted by Matt at
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