Victoria Cup: Reasonably Confident!
Quick line on the big handicap at Ascot today. There are some fairly positive trends in the race, which is encouraging, given that its 29 runners down the straight seven furlongs on good to soft.
Excluding 2005, when the race was run at Lingfield, and 2001 and 1998, when it was abandoned, lets look at the data for the other seven years. Obviously, this is not a great sample size, but nonetheless I think there are some fairly solid trends here.
Weight: only one winner carried less than 8-09, and only one winner carried more than 9-01, so there is a fairly tight weight bracket to concern ourselves with. This leaves us with horse numbers 6 to 15.
Draw: only one winner drawn in single figures, with majority drawn in the middle. However, on the two runnings on good to soft, the winners were drawn 16 and 22, so middle to high is where its at. This excludes Skhilling Spirit and Prince Of Thebes.
Odds: No real clues here, though the favourite has won and four out of seven winners have been 10/1 or shorter, including the last two at Ascot (and last three in total).
Age: All of the last eight winners have been aged 4, 5 or 6. This discounts Pentecost and One More Round.
All of which means we are left with the following shortlist:
Partners In Jazz (last year's winner), Wise Dennis, Beaver Patrol, King Of Argos, Ordnance Row, and Fullandby.
To whittle down this likely sextet, lets revert to the age stats again. Five of the last nine winners of the race were four year olds (from a relatively few number of runners) and, while I fear the five year olds, I'm going to put my head on the block with King Of Argos.
Quick line on the big handicap at Ascot today. There are some fairly positive trends in the race, which is encouraging, given that its 29 runners down the straight seven furlongs on good to soft.
I think Ordnance Row, the other qualifying 4yo, is drawn out of it in stall 11.
So there it is, after all that I make the jolly old favourite the most likely winner. Despite all that, he's still freely trading at 8/1, comes into the race in fine form, has the extremely capable assistance of Jamie Spencer in the plate, and is trained by the improving Ed Dunlop.
There is a slight doubt about the ground (never raced on softer than good), but he's performed well in finishing second to one of the best All Weather horses around in Cusoon on the sand at Wolverhampton, so I'd not be too concerned about this.
My money will be on Spencer this afternoon - lets hope for a bold show.
Other matters, and desperate news from Exning. Rapid City has unfortunately suffered a hairline fracture to one of his tibias, and will need at least four weeks box rest. Not only does this mean I won't have a nice day at York next week (he was due to run on Wednesday), but also he is unlikely to be fit for one of the handicaps at Royal Ascot.
Ho hum, that's a (small part-) owner's life...
Draw at Chester did us no favours in the sprints this week alas. Middle draws seemed to dominate, and its possible that the rain had just got into the track on the inside making it slightly deeper.
However, another draw bias to be well aware of, and incredibly well exemplified this week, is the high draw bias at Beverley. In the 5f sprint on Thursday won by Wanchai Lad, the first six home were drawn 14, 15, 3, 11, 13, 12, out of thirteen runners (two non-runners).
The horse who was drawn 3 that day was Aegean Dancer, and he - in my view - is essentially a winner without a penalty. He was on a hat-trick going into the race, and continues in very good heart. Definitely one to be on next time.
Tough luck on Yeovil last night, conceding two penalties, but the tie may not be quite over yet. They have nothing to lose now at the City Ground, and definitely have players capable of causing Forest problems. That said, Forest are rightly strong favourites to progress now.
Enjoy your weekend punting!
Matt
Excluding 2005, when the race was run at Lingfield, and 2001 and 1998, when it was abandoned, lets look at the data for the other seven years. Obviously, this is not a great sample size, but nonetheless I think there are some fairly solid trends here.
Weight: only one winner carried less than 8-09, and only one winner carried more than 9-01, so there is a fairly tight weight bracket to concern ourselves with. This leaves us with horse numbers 6 to 15.
Draw: only one winner drawn in single figures, with majority drawn in the middle. However, on the two runnings on good to soft, the winners were drawn 16 and 22, so middle to high is where its at. This excludes Skhilling Spirit and Prince Of Thebes.
Odds: No real clues here, though the favourite has won and four out of seven winners have been 10/1 or shorter, including the last two at Ascot (and last three in total).
Age: All of the last eight winners have been aged 4, 5 or 6. This discounts Pentecost and One More Round.
All of which means we are left with the following shortlist:
Partners In Jazz (last year's winner), Wise Dennis, Beaver Patrol, King Of Argos, Ordnance Row, and Fullandby.
To whittle down this likely sextet, lets revert to the age stats again. Five of the last nine winners of the race were four year olds (from a relatively few number of runners) and, while I fear the five year olds, I'm going to put my head on the block with King Of Argos.
Quick line on the big handicap at Ascot today. There are some fairly positive trends in the race, which is encouraging, given that its 29 runners down the straight seven furlongs on good to soft.
I think Ordnance Row, the other qualifying 4yo, is drawn out of it in stall 11.
So there it is, after all that I make the jolly old favourite the most likely winner. Despite all that, he's still freely trading at 8/1, comes into the race in fine form, has the extremely capable assistance of Jamie Spencer in the plate, and is trained by the improving Ed Dunlop.
There is a slight doubt about the ground (never raced on softer than good), but he's performed well in finishing second to one of the best All Weather horses around in Cusoon on the sand at Wolverhampton, so I'd not be too concerned about this.
My money will be on Spencer this afternoon - lets hope for a bold show.
Other matters, and desperate news from Exning. Rapid City has unfortunately suffered a hairline fracture to one of his tibias, and will need at least four weeks box rest. Not only does this mean I won't have a nice day at York next week (he was due to run on Wednesday), but also he is unlikely to be fit for one of the handicaps at Royal Ascot.
Ho hum, that's a (small part-) owner's life...
Draw at Chester did us no favours in the sprints this week alas. Middle draws seemed to dominate, and its possible that the rain had just got into the track on the inside making it slightly deeper.
However, another draw bias to be well aware of, and incredibly well exemplified this week, is the high draw bias at Beverley. In the 5f sprint on Thursday won by Wanchai Lad, the first six home were drawn 14, 15, 3, 11, 13, 12, out of thirteen runners (two non-runners).
The horse who was drawn 3 that day was Aegean Dancer, and he - in my view - is essentially a winner without a penalty. He was on a hat-trick going into the race, and continues in very good heart. Definitely one to be on next time.
Tough luck on Yeovil last night, conceding two penalties, but the tie may not be quite over yet. They have nothing to lose now at the City Ground, and definitely have players capable of causing Forest problems. That said, Forest are rightly strong favourites to progress now.
Enjoy your weekend punting!
Matt
Labels: Flat Racing
posted by Matt at
11:19
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