Payoffs in the Playoffs? (Part Two)
Hello again, dear reader, and welcome to the second part of my view of the divisional footy playoffs this year. Having gone strong on Bristol Rovers (especially to make the final) in League Two, I am now going to review the race for a place in the Championship.
The four sides with chances of escaping League One (for a season at least!) are Blackpool, Nottingham Forest, Yeovil and Oldham. They finished third to sixth respectively in the division, and now Blackpool will play their Northwestern rivals Oldham, and you can do the math on who's in the other tie.
Blackpool are unquestionably the form team here, having won all of their last seven games. Not only that, but they scored an amazing 21 goals in that time, averaging three a match.
Compare and contrast that with Oldham, who have managed only two wins in their last six, and only six goals scored.
I expect this to be as straightforward as it seems, with the Tangerine men from the land of trams and rollercoasters (and cheap beer and women, according to my fond memories!! "Ay'oop luv, fancy a ride on my big dipper?" - its the only place on the planet where that line has a chance even of not winding you up in casualty!) cruising past the Latics, probably winning both legs.
The semi-final between Yeovil and Notts Forest, which plays out its first leg tonight, is much closer, in my opinion. Forest are in good form currently, having won three and drawn two of their last six games. But, when you look at the teams they've faced - Crewe, Leyton, Bournemouth (an easy three points yielded by my boys), Brentford, Rotherham and Millwall - they should probably have done better.
Yeovil, allegedly big rivals of Bournemouth (not so I've noticed!), have won four from six, including their last three. When you look at the two teams to beat them recently, Scunthorpe and Bristol City, both of whom qualified automatically, you can argue that the Tractor Boys are in slightly better form.
Given the disparity in odds (Forest 2/1 and as low as 13/8 with Hills, Yeovil generally 4/1), I'd have to side with the value there.
However, ultimately, its irrelevant because I still fancy Blackpool to beat either of these sides.
They are playing some brilliant football at the moment, scoring for fun, and will love the wide open spaces that Wembley affords them. At a best priced 9/4 with Paddy Power, they're hardly cracking value (major money for them has seen them cut to 2's from 11/4 with a number of firms), but they do look cast iron to reach the final.
If they do make the final, you have a back to lay opportunity, and indeed this is the approach I suggest you take. They're likely to be around evens, and the same proposed strategy as with Bristol Rovers should see at least one of these two in the final. That being the case, it will be possible to lay the team that makes the final for any loss incurred on the other.
If that makes sense... (possibly not).
The biggest prize of all awaits the winners of the Championship playoffs and, not least for that season ticket to the Premiership, this is the hardest division to weigh up in my opinion.
The four teams up for the cup are: Derby, Southampton, Wolves and West Brom. The betting is wide open (almost 7/2 each of four!), and in truth you pays your money and you takes your pick.
Saints play Derby and the Brummies play each other in the semi-finals.
I just fancy Saints to nick their tie, with reformed (allegedly) alcoholic (allegedly) George Burley returning to one of his former (drinking) stamping grounds. There's no doubt he's a top drawer manager, just don't ask for a lift home after the game!
Seriously, Saints have some really talented players at this level, including another ex-Derby man in Grzegorz Rasiak. The Polish hitman has treated himself to no fewer than 22 goal bonuses in just 44 starts for the Southerners, and I reckon he'll be well up for getting another additional cheque against his previous employers.
In the other tie, well your guess is as good as mine (better, more than likely). I truly have no clue who will emerge victorious, between two evenly matched sides who will be playing for local honour as well as the top flight. Both teams are in OK form, both are scoring (and shipping) bags of goals.
Perhaps the percentage play is to bet over 2 goals in the first leg, where Stan James offer 5/4. Not enough to tempt me, but in a match where I can't find a fag paper to split them, I'm struggling to suggest anything other than 'NO BET!!!'
So that concludes the action for me:
Bristol Rovers to win League 2 Playoffs: 10 points win (lay prior to final if opportunity presents itself)
Blackpool to win League 1 Playoffs: 5 points win (lay prior to final if opportunity presents itself)
Saints to win Championship Playoffs: but no bet.
Good luck to you if your teams are involved this weekend, and I hope you get the result you need.
TFI Friday.
Matt
The four sides with chances of escaping League One (for a season at least!) are Blackpool, Nottingham Forest, Yeovil and Oldham. They finished third to sixth respectively in the division, and now Blackpool will play their Northwestern rivals Oldham, and you can do the math on who's in the other tie.
Blackpool are unquestionably the form team here, having won all of their last seven games. Not only that, but they scored an amazing 21 goals in that time, averaging three a match.
Compare and contrast that with Oldham, who have managed only two wins in their last six, and only six goals scored.
I expect this to be as straightforward as it seems, with the Tangerine men from the land of trams and rollercoasters (and cheap beer and women, according to my fond memories!! "Ay'oop luv, fancy a ride on my big dipper?" - its the only place on the planet where that line has a chance even of not winding you up in casualty!) cruising past the Latics, probably winning both legs.
The semi-final between Yeovil and Notts Forest, which plays out its first leg tonight, is much closer, in my opinion. Forest are in good form currently, having won three and drawn two of their last six games. But, when you look at the teams they've faced - Crewe, Leyton, Bournemouth (an easy three points yielded by my boys), Brentford, Rotherham and Millwall - they should probably have done better.
Yeovil, allegedly big rivals of Bournemouth (not so I've noticed!), have won four from six, including their last three. When you look at the two teams to beat them recently, Scunthorpe and Bristol City, both of whom qualified automatically, you can argue that the Tractor Boys are in slightly better form.
Given the disparity in odds (Forest 2/1 and as low as 13/8 with Hills, Yeovil generally 4/1), I'd have to side with the value there.
However, ultimately, its irrelevant because I still fancy Blackpool to beat either of these sides.
They are playing some brilliant football at the moment, scoring for fun, and will love the wide open spaces that Wembley affords them. At a best priced 9/4 with Paddy Power, they're hardly cracking value (major money for them has seen them cut to 2's from 11/4 with a number of firms), but they do look cast iron to reach the final.
If they do make the final, you have a back to lay opportunity, and indeed this is the approach I suggest you take. They're likely to be around evens, and the same proposed strategy as with Bristol Rovers should see at least one of these two in the final. That being the case, it will be possible to lay the team that makes the final for any loss incurred on the other.
If that makes sense... (possibly not).
The biggest prize of all awaits the winners of the Championship playoffs and, not least for that season ticket to the Premiership, this is the hardest division to weigh up in my opinion.
The four teams up for the cup are: Derby, Southampton, Wolves and West Brom. The betting is wide open (almost 7/2 each of four!), and in truth you pays your money and you takes your pick.
Saints play Derby and the Brummies play each other in the semi-finals.
I just fancy Saints to nick their tie, with reformed (allegedly) alcoholic (allegedly) George Burley returning to one of his former (drinking) stamping grounds. There's no doubt he's a top drawer manager, just don't ask for a lift home after the game!
Seriously, Saints have some really talented players at this level, including another ex-Derby man in Grzegorz Rasiak. The Polish hitman has treated himself to no fewer than 22 goal bonuses in just 44 starts for the Southerners, and I reckon he'll be well up for getting another additional cheque against his previous employers.
In the other tie, well your guess is as good as mine (better, more than likely). I truly have no clue who will emerge victorious, between two evenly matched sides who will be playing for local honour as well as the top flight. Both teams are in OK form, both are scoring (and shipping) bags of goals.
Perhaps the percentage play is to bet over 2 goals in the first leg, where Stan James offer 5/4. Not enough to tempt me, but in a match where I can't find a fag paper to split them, I'm struggling to suggest anything other than 'NO BET!!!'
So that concludes the action for me:
Bristol Rovers to win League 2 Playoffs: 10 points win (lay prior to final if opportunity presents itself)
Blackpool to win League 1 Playoffs: 5 points win (lay prior to final if opportunity presents itself)
Saints to win Championship Playoffs: but no bet.
Good luck to you if your teams are involved this weekend, and I hope you get the result you need.
TFI Friday.
Matt
Labels: Football
posted by Matt at
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