Payoffs in the Playoffs? (Part One)

With the regular League season (excepting Premiership) action complete, twelve teams will now fight it out for a spot each in the next division up. It is fiercely tricky trying to predict who will emerge victorious in this type of situation. Nevertheless, your humble scribe rarely backs away from such a challenge, especially when there’s the opportunity of having a wager…

So let’s get into it, starting with League Two today, where I think probably the best bet of all three divisional contests resides.

League Two

The quartet doing battle here are: MK Dons, Lincoln City, Bristol Rovers and Shrewsbury Town. These teams finished fourth to seventh respectively, and MK will face Shrewsbury with Brizzel Ravers taking on Lincoln in the semi-finals.

For much of the season, Lincoln’s Imps looked like they would gain one of the three automatic promotion spots up for grabs in the lowest league. But a weak finish to their season (won just once in their last six) means they are especially vulnerable against a rampant Rovers, who have – for their part – topped the form league with four wins and two draws.

Rovers have outscored their opposition by seven goals to two in the last six games, so it is solid defence rather than spectacular striking that has underpinned their current stellar form. Against that, Lincoln have scored only thrice and conceded one more.

So… don’t be expecting a goal glut, but I confidently envisage the blue half of Bristol making their (Wembley) way along the M4.

There they will face one of MK Dons or Shrewsbury. The Dons have arguably the best player in the division in Izale McLeod. He has scored 24 goals in a relatively few 39 games this term, having missed numerous matches for no less than three red cards.

What McLeod lacks in discipline, he makes up for in pace, power and an unmatched eye for goal at this level. The Shrews defence will struggle to keep him at bay and, even if they do, they’ll also have to counter the autumnal Clive Platt. Platt has scored 18 in the league and, alongside McLeod, their combined tally is a hugely impressive 39 league strikes.

For all their offensive prowess, Dons have been whacked on a number of occasions this season, including a 5-0 reverse at Rochdale. In the head-to-head with Shrews, Dons lost 2-1 a month ago in a very ill-tempered affair (MK had eight players booked and another one sent off – Spanish ref probably!). There were also six bookings in the reverse fixture, which MK won 2-0.

I don’t think there will be much in this tie, but the evidence points to no love lost between the sides, and a buy of cards in the first leg at Gay Meadow should yield a profit.

Overall, I reckon Milton Keynes will sneak a tight and strongly contested battle (‘battle’ being the operative word).

That leaves a final for my money between Bristol Rovers and MK Dons. Irrespective of whether they play the Dons or Lincoln, I am strong on the chances of Bristol Rovers going all the way.

They have an excellent team (at this level) and – to have needed such a strong finish to even reach the playoffs – have arguably underperformed this season.

Not a prodigiously free scoring outfit, it would again come as a surprise to me if they hit more than two in the final. Equally, they’ll need to be wary of the open spaces of Wembley, with Izale McLeod looking to exploit them in combination with his own turbo-boosted legwork.

Ultimately, I always favour a strong defence over a strong attack, and I think that Rovers will find holes in Dons’ suspect backline, and edge it by 2-1 or some such score. At a best priced 11/4, I make them a cracking bet.

If, as I confidently expect them to, Rovers win their semi-final, you’ll be able to hedge out at around evens, so I reckon this is a decent opportunity for a bet to nothing.

Of course, the Impish Lincolners may have something to say about this, but my money will be lodged in County Avon, and I’ll be rehearsing my West Country burr over the coming week.

Come on you Pirates!

Look out for tomorrow’s League One preview.

Until then, “Aw’roit moy carkers!”

Matt