The Easiest Race In The World To Find The Winner?...

Well, I dearly hope some of you estimable readers took my advice on the Grand National and backed Silver Birch (amongst others).

I say it every year, and people really seem to have a problem understanding it. So let me repeat it again, with apologies for shouting:

THE GRAND NATIONAL IS A STATS RACE!!!!!!!!!

The only time in the last ten years when the stats have not found the winner was when Hedgehunter won. He was not a stats horse because he carried 11-01, with the cutoff being 11-00. On the basis of a pound and fitting all the other trends, I backed him anyway. I've actually backed the last SIX winners of the Grand National, and I'm terrible at picking handicap winners!

What I'm trying to tell you is don't be fobbed off by the people who say the race is a lottery. Its not. Period.

The stats for the Grand National are (mostly) so glaringly obvious that its easy to see why they're so effective.

I won't run through all of them here (check my post on 23rd February, where I gave you the winner, for all the details), but I'll just major on a few of them which cuts the field down to about ten very quickly (and that's the case pretty much every year).

1. Grand National is 4 and a half miles. Find a horse who has won over 3m+, preferably 3m2f. Obvious no?
2. Grand National has 40 runners. Find a horse that has won in a field of at least 12, preferably 15. Obvious?
3. Grand National has horribly big fences. Find an experienced jumper (more than two seasons over fences), preferably who has completed (and ideally won) over the Grand National fences. Obvious huh?
4. Grand National is the most testing marathon race in the calendar. Find a horse in the handicap proper (and therefore talented enough to win), but not lugging more than 11-00 (and therefore weighted down).

How many horses yesterday do you think matched these stats?

Answer: three had won over the fences and fitted the other stats.

And they all completed the race yesterday. The winner Silver Birch was joined by Liberthine (5th) and Clan Royal (11th).

From my stats perspective, the latter two failed to qualify as they are French bred, and no such horse has EVER won the race. Many have tried.

In my blog, I made the following comments on the dates listed:

"20th March

Make a note of Gordon Elliot's Silver Birch, who finished a game
second in this race. His next scheduled engagement is in the Grand
National, and he fits all of my stats (which have found the winner
for the last ten years!), so is one on an increasingly shortlist for
the Aintree feature.

23rd February

Silver Birch - my big ante-post wager last year, before things went
inexplicably wrong. Has been nursed back to form by lesser known Irish trainer
and finished 2nd in a cross country race and 4th in a hurdle recently. Will go
to Cheltenham (Cross Country race) then Aintree."

Hindsight is a wonderful thing of course. But what I'm telling you is that you don't need hindsight to back next year's winner. If you simply use the stats, which are underpinned by clear logic, you have a very good chance of getting paid out, granted normal luck in running.

Incidentally, and sorry to gloat, but I had average odds of 9o/1 on the winner, having backed it in February when I wrote about it here. And I had a good drink last night. :o)

Best Regards
Matt