TTS Newsletter, including Cheltenham Review: How Was It For You?!

---------------------------
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL REVIEW
----------------------------

As many of you will know if you've been following my blog comments
regarding the Festival, it was a great four days sport for this
punter. The Friday left a sense of what might have been, but overall
I certainly can't complain.

The Festival opened - as ever - with the Supreme Novices Hurdle. The
Irish have a great record in this race, and I put up Hide The
Evidence as the one to get us off to a winning start. In the event,
he was disappointing, and it was left to another Irish horse, the
virtually unconsidered Ebaziyan to strike first for the folks from
across the sea.

If you found this one, well done. Most didn't. I also mentioned to
my readers that I thought Amaretto Rose had a question to answer
about what she'd find coming off the bridle. As it turned out, and as
suspected, she found nothing. She's a classy mare when it goes her
way, but she might need bottomless ground to cruise past her rivals.

The one to take from the race looks to be Wins Now, trained by Niall
Madden. He bungled the second last before staying on to finish fifth.
A chaser in the making according to the trainer, he looks a very nice
prospect.

This year's Arkle was a cracking renewal and the first two home, My
Way De Solzen and Fair Along have been impressive all season. But the
ones I like the look of in the race are the two who fell two out.

Both Twist Magic and Don't Push It were traveling very smoothly
before their errors, and I reckon we'll see them both atone soon
enough.

Don't Push It probably wants further, but Twist Magic seems like a
very able two miler, and comes from the omnipotent stable of Paul
Nicholls. There may well be a money back mission at Aintree.

The big race of the day was the Champion Hurdle, and this year looked
to be a very open affair.

Detroit City was sent off the jolly old favourite, and was bidding to
defy the famous 'five year olds don't win the Champion Hurdle' stat.
As it turned out, he did not. But having given nothing like his
running, and with another 5yo, Afsoun, back in third, I don't think
we can say he wouldn't have won if putting best hoof forward.

Nonetheless, the speedy flat horse Sublimity could be called the
winner a long way from home, and duly hosed up. I think this year's
event marked the changing of the guard, with old stagers like Hardy
Eustace and Brave Inca probably now on the wane, and new blood
coming through with the aforementioned five year olds, as well as the
7yo winner.

Straw Bear burst a blood vessel, and was pulled up. In the US, they
use drugs to reduce the chances of this happening. Here in UK, these
are banned substances, so I wouldn't be wanting to back this horse
again in a top class race, with doubts about his health.

Not much else to mention on the card, except to say that the winner
of the Cross Country Chase is likely to be the winner of many more of
these races over the next few years. In a discipline dominated by
grand old stagers, he is a relatively speedy ten year old.

Make a note of Gordon Elliot's Silver Birch, who finished a game
second in this race. His next scheduled engagement is in the Grand
National, and he fits all of my stats (which have found the winner
for the last ten years!), so is one on an increasingly shortlist for
the Aintree feature.

Day Two opened with the well hyped Aran Concerto bidding to vindicate
his trainer's stratospheric statements about his ability. Alas,
rumours of Aran's troubled journey proved valid, as the horse drifted
markedly in the betting before finishing fifth. He travelled well
enough before getting a bump at the last and finding nothing
thereafter.

I expect him to bounce back from this, and Aran Concerto remains a
horse to follow.

The form of Wichita Lineman was given a boost by the victory of
Massini's Maguire, foiling my ante post punt on Tidal Bay in the
process!

Denman looked banker material in the Sun Alliance Chase, and duly
hacked up. He's been broadly unchallenged all season, and it will be
interesting to see how he fares against more seasoned racers next
year. Certainly quotes of 4/1 for the 2008 Gold Cup look a touch
skinny. (Put another way, they're downright miserly, and I implore
you not to take such ungenerous odds!)

The Queen Mother Champion Chase was the race I was most looking
forward to watching all week, and I had lumped on Well Chief at 15/8
the Sunday prior to the race.

Sent off the even money favourite, he didn't get more than a couple
of strides beyond the second fence.

My disappointment was contextualised by a wager of an even £100,000
by some poor (presumably, now!) punter.

The winner, Voy Por Ustedes, did it nicely and would likely have
given the Chief a run for his money. But I remain utterly convinced
that I was betting 15/8 and the hundred grand guy was betting that,
on Well Chief to get round.

Alas, history and our bank balances will record that the Chief did
not complete the course, and we did not get paid out.

Incidentally, Voy Por got beaten at Aintree last season (when I had
backed him), so I would counsel caution about backing him there
again this time around.

In terms of horses to follow, the bumper at Cheltenham is always THE
race to use. Every horse who lined up is likely to win races in the
future.

I tend to note down all of them on my horses to follow list, and I
would encourage you to do likewise. Every horse in the race (with,
perversely, the possible exception of the winner) is unexposed, and
will almost certainly go on to better things.

To illustrate my point, the 2006 bumper was contested by 23 runners.
This season, 18 have run and they have won 20 races between them.
Only three have failed to win, and they all placed second at least
once.

I rest my case (not before time, I hear you cry!)

Onto Thursday, and not a lot for this observer to get excited about.
I am not a fan of the extension to four days of the Festival. I feel
that commercial imperatives have overthrown tradition at the home of
jumps racing globally. Inevitably maybe, but still not for me.

The racing was compelling of course, and having backed Joe's Edge for
a mighty £3.03 at 85 on betfair on the Tuesday, I of course rowed in
with Ferdy Murphy's L'Antartique in the first here. My betfair odds
were double the returned SP of 20/1, but alas again it was for small
beer only.

I gave a very decent shout for this one to my blog readers (on the
basis of its trainer), and I dearly hope some of you took the advice
and relieved your bookie of 20+ times your outlay.

Incidentally, you can read the Cheltenham blog posts at:

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blog.html

(paste into your browser's address bar if this doesn't show as a link)

Taranis was a popular winner of the Ryanair Chase, especially in my
boozer, where a birthday boy had taken 10/1 about this a few weeks
back.

I was pleased that one of the dodgepots who had swerved a championship
race in favour of this softer target didn't win, although Our Vic
came from nowhere to almost snatch it close home.

Monet's Garden proved disappointing from a yard who for me have also
been very disappointing this season. They are unlikely to be on the
TTS roster next season.

The one true championship race of the day was the Stayers' Hurdle
(now, strangely, called the World Hurdle). It was a very competitive
event and I had a decent bet on Mighty Man. He stayed on well, but
the bird had already flown. The feathered one in this case was 2005
winner, Inglis Drever, who looked beaten but rallied as he so often
does to win a shade cosily in all probability.

Blazing Bailey ran another sound race in third, and will be better as
he gets older (he is another from last season's Triumph Hurdle that
included Detroit City and Fair Along, and is a 5yo too).

Black Jack Ketchum was well backed in the end, and crashed out early
to maintain McCoy's misery at this year's Festival.

The rest of the card doesn't really merit much attention.

The last day was, for me, the best day, in terms of quality racing
if not betting results.

I had taken some strong views, and bet accordingly. The international
Law of Sod saw all my big win bets finish second (bar one, which was
nowhere!) and my one big place bet (Flight Leader) finish fourth.
Hmmm...

I'd had a good few quid on Katchit earlier in the season, and am a
confirmed fan of the horse. Typically, come the day, I'd changed my
mind and layed much of my stake back, in order to bet Lounaos, the
clear form choice from Ireland.

As it turned out, she was never travelling, and Katchit was different
class, cruising to the front, and smashing clear when asked a question.
He's just a magic little horse, and is now my favourite NH horse. I
love him, the trainer and the jockey. There, I've said it!

Wichita Lineman was impressive in the Brit Insurance, and the unlucky
horse here was Black Harry, who exited stage downwards at the last
hurdle. He would surely have been second but for his slip, and - if
his confidence is unaffected - he'll win again very soon.

The winner won well and I should have backed him (easy with hindsight).
Instead, my cash was on Flight Leader for a place. Fourth, and I'll
say no more.

So to the Blue Riband, the Cheltenham Gold Cup. Everyone wanted to be
a layer of Kauto Star, but in the event doubts about his jumping and
resolution for three and a quarter miles were misplaced as he won
very handsomely indeed.

I had backed the second horse for decent money at a vast
price. At least I got my place bet paid out.

No sob stories here - the race ran to form. Again, this looked like
a race where many in behind were making up the numbers, marking time
before some of this season's novices get promotion to the Premier
League (step forward Denman and My Way De Solzen and, probably, Don't
Push It).

The Foxhunters' is the one shamateur riders race where I like to bet.
The main reason for this is that at least the horses are used to
being given no chance when presented at a fence, and have grown
accustomed to bailing their passengers out!

Another decent bet (Whyso Mayo), another second place. In fairness,
had the jockey won after all but unseating at the first, I'd have had
to retract all I've said about the amateurs over the past week (and
I've said plenty!!!!)

The winner should never have been 20/1. Even so, I didn't manage to
back him, but some of my drinking chums did. Bugger!

The last race of the Festival also saw my last decent bet of the
meeting and, guess what?!, it came second.

Ouninpohja was the beastie and it ran very well. Just not as well as
Pedrobob.

The salvation was that, having got 5 out of 6 in the placepot for the
first three days, I at last managed to get all six (with the forecast
in the County) on Friday.

However the Festival was for you betting wise, I hope you had a great
time, and were able to appreciate some superlative sport.

There truly is nothing quite like the Cheltenham Festival.


---------------------------------------
WHAT NEXT? HERE COMES THE FLAT SEASON!
---------------------------------------

With just Aintree to go from a jumping perspective, in terms of the
big meetings, eyes are now starting to look towards the summer season
and the Flat Turf.

The season kicks off later than usual this year, and not at Doncaster
(which I believe is still receiving the finishing touches to some
cosmetic surgery, before reopening later in the year).

Newcastle has the honour of hosting the first Flat meeting of this
year, on 31st March. Then, after a couple of days off at the
beginning of April, it will be Flat turf racing all the way through
to early November.

To help you find a few winners, I have been busily researching
trainer patterns at each of the 32 turf tracks. I have nominated at
least one trainer at each course, with the exception of Lingfield's
turf course where, due to the infrequency of meetings, there are no
strong trends.

For those of you familiar with TrainerTrackStats, the jumping
equivalent of TrainerFlatStats (TFS), there are some key differences
to note in the new publication.

Firstly, a number of you commented that there were simply too many
bets to place. TFS has one trainer only nominated at most tracks,
and just one track has four trainers to follow, which is the most
anywhere.

This brings the average number of bets down to around one a day. Of
course, some days there may be five bets, and some days none. But,
overall, this will average to around thirty qualifiers a month.

Secondly, I have introduced an indicator of strength for each trainer.
Trainers have qualified for TFS if they've satisfied at least one of
the following three criteria with a specific subset of their runners
from 2002-2006:

i) A strike rate of 1 in 3 (33.33%) or better.
ii) A level stakes profit of 30 points or better.
iii) A level stakes percentage of 100% or better. (This means per
runner bet, you would at least double your money).

Some trainers satisfy two or three of these criteria, and could
therefore be considered stronger bets.

I am also including four bonus products with the guide, as follows:

- FIVE Proven Racing Systems. These have all won good money consistently
over the past five seasons, and their full season by season breakdown
is included.

- SIX Of The Best Trainers To Follow. As well as a couple of familiar
trainers to follow everywhere in specific race types, there is at least
one trainer here who I think 95% of you will have never heard of, and
who I think is definitely one to follow in 2007!

- Make The Most Of Your Winners: Staking Plans Explained. A look at
five different staking plans, and how these might be introduced to
your betting to optimise your financial returns.

- How To Use Betting Exchanges To Optimise Your Profits. This was
also included with TTS for those who got that. These days, I would
urge everybody to open a betfair (or similar) account, to guarantee
getting the best value odds. There is also a series of free bet
vouchers included in the appendix.

So that's the guide, plus four cracking bonuses.

The sale price will be £57... BUT NOT FOR YOU!

The guide will go on sale this Saturday (24th March), a week ahead of
the start of the season.

Between then and the official start of the season (31st March), you'll
be able to get a copy of all of the above for LESS THAN HALF PRICE.

For just £27, you'll be able to start researching the trainers to
follow at your local track, or just generally, in readiness for the
start of the turf flat season proper.

But this offer is only good for those seven days. On the morning of
31st March, I'll be revising all payment links to the standard price
of £57.

Note that there will also be special subscription offers for those of
you who like to receive daily email alerts of the following day's
runners.

I'll send you an email on 24th with all the details, so look out for
that if you're interested!

-------------
THE TTS JOKE
-------------

Joe and his two friends are talking at work. His first friend says:
"I think my wife is having an affair with the electrician.The other
day I came home and found wire cutters under our bed and they weren't
mine."

His second friend says: "I think my wife is having an affair with the
plumber. The other day I found a wrench under the bed and it wasn't
mine."

Joe says: "I think my wife is having an affair with a horse."
Both his friends look at him with utter disbelief. "No I'm serious.
The other day I came home and found a jockey under our bed."

(I know, its awful. If you think you can do better, email me your
effort at

enquiries@trainertrackstats.com)


That's all for this newsletter. I hope you've enjoyed reading it.

I'll be posting this and all subsequent newsletters on my blog site,
which you can access at:

http://www.nag-nag-nag.co.uk/blog.html

As ever, if you've any comments, please either email me at
enquiries@trainertrackstats.com or leave a comment on the blog site
(nothing too rude please!)

Best Regards

Matt