Day Two Preview: This Time Its Personal!
And so the first flushes of optimism have dissipated and the harsh realities of three consecutive big field handicaps on Tuesday afternoon will have managed the expectations downwards for all but the savviest of punters.
Day Two will begin with renewed hope, and a slightly fuzzier head... To the races, make haste!
I have strong views on the first three races tomorrow, and no views on the last three.
In the first race, the Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle, I'm starting to believe the hype about Noel Meade's alleged wonderhorse, Aran Concerto. He has apparently been beating Pegasus on the gallops, and has the most robust form in the race. At the price (just shy of 2/1), he might not be for everyone, and my ante-post tipple in this heat was (and still is) the Howard Johnson trained Tidal Bay. He's got excellent form, but - right now - the stable have not. I'm not expecting to be collecting on this ticket.
The obvious each way selection against the likely hotpot at the top of the market (and the racecard) is Silverburn. He has a progressive profile and is another who will have been trained to the day by his handler, the Champion trainer Paul Nicholls. At around 6/1, I reckon he's a cast iron each way bet.
The only other two I'll mention here are Duc De Regniere for Nicky H and Philip Hobbs' Massini's Maguire. Much of the form in the race is tied in with Wichita Lineman who, of course, runs later in the week, and both of these have been running creditably with the very best in Britain.
But, to cut a long (rather boring) story short, its Aran Concerto followed by Silverburn for me.
Second heat sees the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase run over 3m and lots of nasty fences, which get in the way for most of the runners. I reckon if the weather continues as it is at the moment, the going will be no worse than good to soft for tomorrow, and that is good news for equine vitality in the Cotswolds.
I say that, because I was fearful that there would be fatalities in this race because of the number of inexperienced horses and the gruelling nature of the race conditions. But I'm now much more optimistic.
From a betting perspective, I make it a(n overly?) simple race. Denman will win, Cailin Alainn will not complete the course, and Dom D'Orgeval will make the frame. A bigger priced horse with a chance is Knowhere who represents good value at 33/1.
For me though, as it has been all season, Denman is a nap of the day bet.
At least he would be on any other day. Because the third leg of Wednesday's placepot extravaganza sees me nominate my nap of the meeting. I hate going public on these things, and I have almost certainly now jinxed his chance, but I cannot see a horse further clear of his rivals than Well Chief is in front of this field.
Two years ago, he was brilliant and breathtaking when up against a still peak condition Moscow Flyer and the wonderful Azertyuiop (named after the top row of keys on a French typewriter keyboard, in case you didn't know! Incidentally, 'typewriter' is the longest word you can type from the keys of a single row on a typewriter, in case you didn't know. I'm great fun to drink with - full of astonishingly pointless anecdotes!).
Back to the story. My point is this. Last year, in the absence of Well Chief and Azertyuiop, and with Moscow Flyer clearly on the wane, Newmill won the race emphatically and without fluke.
He is the second favourite for good reason, though Nickname has realistic claims for the 'Best of the Irish' tag. But these horses are surely not good enough to beat the mighty Well Chief.
His comeback run was very impressive after so long off the track and, should he not bounce (i.e. run poorly after overexerting himself previously), a clear round is surely all that is required.
His trainer has given him a month to recover from the previous race, and he reports the horse in excellent nick. I have bet him like a man, and will win or lose on the week based on the performance of this race.
God help me.
It is fair to say that win or lose, the rest of the card on Wednesday will hold little interest to me. However, in the spirit of even handedness and for those that like to solve Rubik's cubes / Iraqi domestic issues / world peace, poverty and health, lets have a look at the handicaps that follow.
4.00 is the allotted hour for man and money to part for the Coral Cup, with the unlikely possibility of a reunion a short time later. I have to concede to having had a small bet in this race a while ago on an Irish horse. I like Irish horses in the handicap hurdles here. They moan about being badly handicapped and invariably win more than their fair share.
So for me, I've gone for Mister Hight. He is a hardened battler who was once thought to be top class, but failed by a short margin to make the gravy. I'll follow him home with Powerstation, who has Festival placed form (14/1 with Bluesq surely won't last if I've read this race anything like right!). In fact, he's finished second both times he's run at Cheltenham, both times behind a certain Black Jack Ketchum. That form gives him solid chances here.
Lower down the weights, I like Nicky H's pair, Copsale Lad and All Star (both of whom are failed chasers, it should be said, and will love the revertion to smaller things in their way). The former has done TTS no favours this season, having disappointed badly twice in chases and then won a hurdle at a decent price when he didn't qualify for us that day. All Star is a horse I've always had a soft spot for, mainly because he's so inappropriately named! Actually, thats a little unfair. He clearly has talent, and tomorrow might just be his day.
Onwards and downwards we go. Leg 5 of Day Two pits us against a field of two dozen badly ridden horses over big bushes and two dozen furlongs. I am, of course, referring to the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (for Amateur Riders). Any race reserved to these farmers and stable lasses should be enjoyed only for the spectacle of jockeys hailing buses and impersonating mime artists doing knitting while a horse bolts underneath them.
If you want to bet in this race, good luck to you. For me, I shall be going to the bathroom and then getting a round in.
Ok, if forced, forget horse form and look instead at jockeys. Some of these aren't actually too bad, the majority of them are. So find a rider who has some sort of talent. I'd suggest a shortlist of Sam Waley-Cohen, Captain Jamie Snowden (sluiced up on Hoo La Baloo in the Grand Annual on Saturday under a very decent ride), Tom Greenall, Nina Carberry, Richard Burton (now receovered from his ill-fated marriage to Liz Taylor and back in the saddle in more ways than one, haha!), and JJ Codd.
Ok, so looking at the form of their steeds leads me to Liberthine (out of sorts but will have been primed for this); Lou du Moulin Mas; Darby Wall (twice a winner here); Direct Flight (first time out, dodgy jumper, just the type for a race like this!); and Cloudy Lane, trained by Red Rum's son (or something).
I really don't care who wins this, but I'll watching and chuckling as I slurp my way through another pint at what is sure to be a great spectacle, hopefully not for all the wrong reasons. (Just don't come running to me complaining that your horse was given a crap ride: they pretty much all will be!)
Soapbox firmly packed away, and apologies despatched to any farmers / stable lasses in my readership, we'll move onto the Wednesday nightcap, a race with more talking horses than backstage at the Mr Ed auditions. (They just come thick and fast. Well, thick anyway...)
Den of Iniquity for me, largely because that's where I'll be, and I don't have a clue as to the form of the Irish. I've heard whispers for Aranleigh, Sergheyev, Mad Fish and One Gulp.
My advice is to stick to small stakes and save your powder (should you have any left at this point) for the rest of the week. Always remember, Cheltenham is a four day marathon these days, and not a three day sprint.
Best of British (or Irish) to you for tomorrow, and I don't mind you all finding the winners of five of the races as long as I get the winner of one :o)
Matt
Day Two will begin with renewed hope, and a slightly fuzzier head... To the races, make haste!
I have strong views on the first three races tomorrow, and no views on the last three.
In the first race, the Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle, I'm starting to believe the hype about Noel Meade's alleged wonderhorse, Aran Concerto. He has apparently been beating Pegasus on the gallops, and has the most robust form in the race. At the price (just shy of 2/1), he might not be for everyone, and my ante-post tipple in this heat was (and still is) the Howard Johnson trained Tidal Bay. He's got excellent form, but - right now - the stable have not. I'm not expecting to be collecting on this ticket.
The obvious each way selection against the likely hotpot at the top of the market (and the racecard) is Silverburn. He has a progressive profile and is another who will have been trained to the day by his handler, the Champion trainer Paul Nicholls. At around 6/1, I reckon he's a cast iron each way bet.
The only other two I'll mention here are Duc De Regniere for Nicky H and Philip Hobbs' Massini's Maguire. Much of the form in the race is tied in with Wichita Lineman who, of course, runs later in the week, and both of these have been running creditably with the very best in Britain.
But, to cut a long (rather boring) story short, its Aran Concerto followed by Silverburn for me.
Second heat sees the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase run over 3m and lots of nasty fences, which get in the way for most of the runners. I reckon if the weather continues as it is at the moment, the going will be no worse than good to soft for tomorrow, and that is good news for equine vitality in the Cotswolds.
I say that, because I was fearful that there would be fatalities in this race because of the number of inexperienced horses and the gruelling nature of the race conditions. But I'm now much more optimistic.
From a betting perspective, I make it a(n overly?) simple race. Denman will win, Cailin Alainn will not complete the course, and Dom D'Orgeval will make the frame. A bigger priced horse with a chance is Knowhere who represents good value at 33/1.
For me though, as it has been all season, Denman is a nap of the day bet.
At least he would be on any other day. Because the third leg of Wednesday's placepot extravaganza sees me nominate my nap of the meeting. I hate going public on these things, and I have almost certainly now jinxed his chance, but I cannot see a horse further clear of his rivals than Well Chief is in front of this field.
Two years ago, he was brilliant and breathtaking when up against a still peak condition Moscow Flyer and the wonderful Azertyuiop (named after the top row of keys on a French typewriter keyboard, in case you didn't know! Incidentally, 'typewriter' is the longest word you can type from the keys of a single row on a typewriter, in case you didn't know. I'm great fun to drink with - full of astonishingly pointless anecdotes!).
Back to the story. My point is this. Last year, in the absence of Well Chief and Azertyuiop, and with Moscow Flyer clearly on the wane, Newmill won the race emphatically and without fluke.
He is the second favourite for good reason, though Nickname has realistic claims for the 'Best of the Irish' tag. But these horses are surely not good enough to beat the mighty Well Chief.
His comeback run was very impressive after so long off the track and, should he not bounce (i.e. run poorly after overexerting himself previously), a clear round is surely all that is required.
His trainer has given him a month to recover from the previous race, and he reports the horse in excellent nick. I have bet him like a man, and will win or lose on the week based on the performance of this race.
God help me.
It is fair to say that win or lose, the rest of the card on Wednesday will hold little interest to me. However, in the spirit of even handedness and for those that like to solve Rubik's cubes / Iraqi domestic issues / world peace, poverty and health, lets have a look at the handicaps that follow.
4.00 is the allotted hour for man and money to part for the Coral Cup, with the unlikely possibility of a reunion a short time later. I have to concede to having had a small bet in this race a while ago on an Irish horse. I like Irish horses in the handicap hurdles here. They moan about being badly handicapped and invariably win more than their fair share.
So for me, I've gone for Mister Hight. He is a hardened battler who was once thought to be top class, but failed by a short margin to make the gravy. I'll follow him home with Powerstation, who has Festival placed form (14/1 with Bluesq surely won't last if I've read this race anything like right!). In fact, he's finished second both times he's run at Cheltenham, both times behind a certain Black Jack Ketchum. That form gives him solid chances here.
Lower down the weights, I like Nicky H's pair, Copsale Lad and All Star (both of whom are failed chasers, it should be said, and will love the revertion to smaller things in their way). The former has done TTS no favours this season, having disappointed badly twice in chases and then won a hurdle at a decent price when he didn't qualify for us that day. All Star is a horse I've always had a soft spot for, mainly because he's so inappropriately named! Actually, thats a little unfair. He clearly has talent, and tomorrow might just be his day.
Onwards and downwards we go. Leg 5 of Day Two pits us against a field of two dozen badly ridden horses over big bushes and two dozen furlongs. I am, of course, referring to the Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (for Amateur Riders). Any race reserved to these farmers and stable lasses should be enjoyed only for the spectacle of jockeys hailing buses and impersonating mime artists doing knitting while a horse bolts underneath them.
If you want to bet in this race, good luck to you. For me, I shall be going to the bathroom and then getting a round in.
Ok, if forced, forget horse form and look instead at jockeys. Some of these aren't actually too bad, the majority of them are. So find a rider who has some sort of talent. I'd suggest a shortlist of Sam Waley-Cohen, Captain Jamie Snowden (sluiced up on Hoo La Baloo in the Grand Annual on Saturday under a very decent ride), Tom Greenall, Nina Carberry, Richard Burton (now receovered from his ill-fated marriage to Liz Taylor and back in the saddle in more ways than one, haha!), and JJ Codd.
Ok, so looking at the form of their steeds leads me to Liberthine (out of sorts but will have been primed for this); Lou du Moulin Mas; Darby Wall (twice a winner here); Direct Flight (first time out, dodgy jumper, just the type for a race like this!); and Cloudy Lane, trained by Red Rum's son (or something).
I really don't care who wins this, but I'll watching and chuckling as I slurp my way through another pint at what is sure to be a great spectacle, hopefully not for all the wrong reasons. (Just don't come running to me complaining that your horse was given a crap ride: they pretty much all will be!)
Soapbox firmly packed away, and apologies despatched to any farmers / stable lasses in my readership, we'll move onto the Wednesday nightcap, a race with more talking horses than backstage at the Mr Ed auditions. (They just come thick and fast. Well, thick anyway...)
Den of Iniquity for me, largely because that's where I'll be, and I don't have a clue as to the form of the Irish. I've heard whispers for Aranleigh, Sergheyev, Mad Fish and One Gulp.
My advice is to stick to small stakes and save your powder (should you have any left at this point) for the rest of the week. Always remember, Cheltenham is a four day marathon these days, and not a three day sprint.
Best of British (or Irish) to you for tomorrow, and I don't mind you all finding the winners of five of the races as long as I get the winner of one :o)
Matt
Labels: Cheltenham
posted by Matt at
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