Grand National Thoughts...

Now that the weights have been published, it seems a very
good time to review the Aintree Grand National picture from
a stats angle. To recap, these are the reasons it is a good
stats race:

- No other race has so many horses lining up
- No other race is run over such an extreme distance
- No other race has the Aintree fences (with the exception
of races at the track of course)
- No other race offers such much prize money and kudos
(attracting some very classy horses)
- No other race is guaranteed to be run at a frantic pace
from the outset
- No French race is run over anything like this distance
(French breds don't stay the trip!)

The stats angle for the race says to follow the logic.
This means that we're looking for:

- a proven stayer (won over 3m+);
- a reliable jumper (less than two falls in the last
two seasons), and at least into his third season jumping;
- a horse that has won in a field of at least 12;
- a horse mature enough to win the race, but not past his
best (aged 8-12);
- a horse in the handicap proper, but carrying 11stone or
less (i.e. scheduled to carry 10-00 to 11-00);
- a horse with proven class (placed in a Grade 3 chase or
better);
- a horse who was not bred in France (some have run close,
none have won...);and,
- Pay special attention to the Irish (especially if they've
been hurdling!); and,
- Favour horses who have jumped the Aintree fences

This makes the 119 entries truncate to a rather more manageable
twelve (I previously quoted eight horses, due to some confusion
on my part about French bred horses. If a horse has only one
French parent, then it is not classed as a French bred, hence
some horses have been reinstated). Seven of the eight I previously
mentioned remain (Numbersixvalverde has to carry 11-03 and is
discounted on this basis):

Point Barrow - Irish National winner off top weight

Graphic Approach - Run some eye catching races for his shrewd trainer
who went close with Mely Moss

Naunton Brook - Sound form, safe jumper, trainer won with Earth Summit.
Ran very poorly however in Red Sq Gold Cup on 17th Feb.

Cloudy Bays - Excellent form in Ireland (bags of class), has been running
in hurdles, and a very interesting dark one should he run.

Dun Doire - Cheltenham Festival winner for very shrewd trainer, hampered
when unseated last year, been running in hurdles races since Grand National '06

Garvivonnian - An old friend of mine, races prominently and jumps well,
so will give a run for money. Doubtful stayer though, alas.

Silver Birch - my big ante-post wager last year, before things went
inexplicably wrong. Has been nursed back to form by lesser known Irish trainer
and finished 2nd in a cross country race and 4th in a hurdle recently. Will go
to Cheltenham (Cross Country race) then Aintree.

To these we now add:

Little Brick: Much hyped recruit, who won well at Wincanton last weekend.
To my eye, he looked a very good jumper but a doubtful stayer.

Longshanks: No real negatives, and from a stable who has won the race before.
Has jumped the Aintree fences twice before in shorter races.

Nil Desperandum: Moved to Venetia Williams this season, and has been backed
for the race.

Puntal: Ran an unbelievable race last year to finish 6th, after 400 days off
the track. He's a bit fitter this year, so could run very well.

Jack High: Former Betfred (aka Whitbread) Gold Cup winner, who was near the
top of ante-post lists last year.

So, this is my Dirty Dozen for the race. Some obvious contenders here, and
hopefully some interesting dark horses. I have a number of betfair wagers
in the triple digit odds, so let's hope one of them obliges!

Which horses stand out for you, and why?